Identifying linkages between generations and the property market : the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important. they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually generate the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation and the trend towards geographical relocation had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X,Y and Z. This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in arange of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends.The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets. it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

The Melbourne 2006 Commonwealth Games : what does it mean for the local property market?

In 2006 Melbourne will host the 18th Commonwealth Games with Brisbane being the last Australian city to host this event over two decades ago in 1982. Melbourne has not held a major global sporting event since the 1956 Olympic Games, although the 2006 Commonwealth Games follows on from the successful 2000 Sydney Olympics. These sporting events have continued to grow from strength to strength, and have been assisted by Australia's close affiliation with sport and the widespread global media coverage. In a similar manner to other sporting events that Melbourne hosts, including the Australian Tennis Open, Formula One Grand Prix, Motorcycle Grand Prix, Melbourne Cup and Australian Football League, the city and its inhabitants are consumed by these events. The 2006 Commonwealth Games is certain to follow this trend.
The task of hosting the Commonwealth Games is enormous, although actively pursued in a fierce bidding process by competing cities. The benefits are undisputed and include an influx of visitors to the host city, an opportunity to enhance or rebuild infrastructure such as transport, plus the worldwide focus on the host city before and during the event. A high level of planning is undertaken for years well in advance of the event, and this may have an effect on the surrounding property market. Through the media both buyers and sellers are constantly reminded of the upcoming Games, the venues and the increased demand that will occur. Accordingly, this research investigates the task of hosting a major global sporting event such as the Commonwealth Games, and importantly how affects infrastructure in a host city. Attention is placed on the 2006 Commonwealth Games and the Melbourne property market. Whilst every host city differs in characteristics such as size, location and timing of the event, the findings of this study will assist a future host city to plan for the highly irregular circumstances that accompany a high profile one-off major sporting event.

Residential property market performance in a declining market : Christchurch case study

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over-inflated and due for major correction.

An analysis of the Brisbane residential property market and the global financial crisis

The period from 2007 to 2009 covered the residential property boom from early 2000, to the property recession following the Global Financial Crisis. Since late 2008, a number of residential property markets have suffered significant falls in house prices, buth this has not been consistent across all market sectors. This paper will analyze the housing market in Brisbane Australia to determine the impact, similarities and differences that the4 GFC had on range of residential sectors across a divesified property market. Data analysis will provide an overview of residential property prices, sales and listing volumes over the study period and will provide a comparison of median house price performance across the geographic and socio-economic areas of Brisbane.

Tracking the Brisbane residential property market : Post GFC

Prior to the GFC, Brisbane and Perth were experiencing the highest increases in median residential house prices, compared to the other major Australian cities, due to strong demand for both owner occupied and investment residential property. In both these cities, a major driver of this demand and subsequent increases in residential property prices was the strong resources sector. With the onset of the GFC in 2008, the resources and construction sectors in Queensland contracted significantly and this had both direct and indirect impacts on the Brisbane residential property market. However, this impact was not consistent across Brisbane residential property sectors. The affect on houses and units differed, as did the impact based on geographic location and suburb value. This paper tracks Brisbane residential property sales listings, sales and returns over the period February 2009 to July 2010 and provides an analysis of the residential market for 24 Brisbane suburbs. These suburbs cover main residential areas of Brisbane and are based on an equal number of low, medium and high socioeconomic areas of Brisbane. This assessment of socio-economic status for the suburbs is based on both median household income and median house price. The analysis will cover both free standing residential property and residential units/townhouses/villas. The results will show how each of these residential property sub markets have performed following the GFC.

An analysis of NSW rural property market : 1990-2010

Rural property in Australia has seen significant market resurgence over the past 3 years, with improved seasonal conditions in a number of states, improved commodity prices and a greater interest and purchase of rural land by major international corporations and investment institutions. Much of this change in perspective in relation to rural property as an asset class can be linked to the food shortage of 2007 and the subsequent interest by many countries in respect to food security. This paper will address the total and capital return performance of a major agricultural area and compare these returns on the basis of both location of land and land use. The comparison will be used to determine if location or actual land use has a greater influence on rural property capital and income returns. This performance analysis is based on over 40,000 rural sales transactions. These transactions cover all market based rural property transactions in New South Wales, Australia for the period January 1990 to December 2010. Correlation analysis and investment performance analysis has also been carried out to determine the possible relationships between location and land use and subsequent changes in rural land capital values.

Assessing the property market impact of stigma removal : high voltage overhead transmission lines removal in Wellington, NZ

This thesis advances the understanding of the impact of stigma on property values. A case study in Wellington, New Zealand, enabled hedonic modelling and an empirical analysis to determine the impact of the stigma from the high voltage transmission line structure and how long the stigma remained after removal. The results reveal a substantial difference between the discount applied to individual properties while the structure is in place, as compared to the overall increase in neighbourhood value once the structure, which created the stigma, is removed.

Political market characteristics and the provision of educational infrastructure in North India

In this paper, we are concerned with the provision of schools in rural North India, particularly with whether such provision is determined by the demographic and economic characteristics of the region or whether local democracy also plays a role. We find that the probability that a governing party loses an election has a positive effect on the provision of schooling infrastructure, while the margin of victory of the governing party has a negative effect. Political reservation for members of the Scheduled Castes (SCs) has a positive effect on schooling infrastructure in villages with a large SC population, but a negative effect overall.

A geography of the UK commercial property market

This paper revisits some ideas that were first raised seriously in the mid-90s; that it should be possible to establish linkages (in spatial terms) between local economic factors and sector performance in commercial real estate markets. There have been a number of developments in the quality and quantity of relevant data over the intervening period that make it appropriate to return to have another look at some of these ideas in a more ‘modern’ technological context. Using data from several sources this exploratory paper seeks therefore to look at some of the spatial patterns that can be derived from the data. It examines the extent to which it is possible to make linkages and visualise the geographical structure of those markets and their change over time. Naturally there remain strong limitations on the extent to which it is possible to achieve ‘good’ results in this kind of analysis, and one major intention of the paper is to encourage a debate about how data sets can be developed and improved to allow these methods to be taken further.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.