ECG scar quantification correlates with cardiac magnetic resonance scar size and prognostic factors in Chagas' disease

Objective To test the hypothesis that 12-lead ECG QRS scoring quantifies myocardial scar and correlates with disease severity in Chagas' heart disease. Design Patients underwent 12-lead ECG for QRS scoring and cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) to assess myocardial scar. Setting University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients 44 Seropositive patients with Chagas' disease without a history of myocardial infarction and at low risk for coronary artery disease. Main outcome measures Correlation between QRS score, CMR-LGE scar size and left ventricular ejection fraction. Relation between QRS score, heart failure (HF) class and history of ventricular tachycardia (VT). Results QRS score correlated directly with CMR-LGE scar size (R=0.69, p<0.0001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (R=-0.54, p=0.0002), which remained significant in the subgroup with conduction defects. Patients with class II or III HF had significantly higher QRS scores than those with class I HF (5.1 +/- 3.4 vs 2.1 +/- 3.1 QRS points (p=0.002)) and patients with a history of VT had significantly higher QRS scores than those without a history of VT (5.3 +/- 3.2% vs 2.6 +/- 3.4 QRS points (p=0.02)). A QRS score >= 2 points had particularly good sensitivity and specificity (95% and 83%, respectively) for prediction of large CMR-LGE, and a QRS score >= 7 points had particularly high specificity (92% and 89%, respectively) for predicting significant left ventricular dysfunction and history of VT. Conclusions The wide availability of 12-lead ECG makes it an attractive screening tool and may enhance clinical risk stratification of patients at risk for more severe, symptomatic Chagas' heart disease.

Prognostic factors for progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM: To evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and histological variables capable of predicting the progression of hepatic structural disturbances in chronic hepatitis C patients during the time interval between two liver biopsies. METHODS: Clinical charts of 112 chronic hepatitis C patients were retrospectively analyzed, whereas liver biopsies were revised. Immunohistochemical detection of interferon receptor was based on the Envision-Peroxidase System. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the variables in the age at first biopsy, ALT levels, presence of lymphoid aggregates and siderosis were the determinants of the best model for predicting the severity of the disease. The direct progression rate of hepatic structural lesions was significantly higher in untreated patients, intermediate in treated non-responders and lower in treated responders to antiviral therapy (non-treated vs responders, 0.22 +/- 0.50 vs -0.15 +/- 0.46, P = 0.0053). Immuno-expression of interferon receptor is not a relevant factor. CONCLUSION: The best predictors of the progression of fibrosis are age at the first liver biopsy, extent of ALT elevation, inflammation at liver histology and hepatic siderosis. Antiviral treatment is effective in preventing the progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients. (C) 2008 WJG. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Factors in Patients with Malignant Salivary Gland Neoplasms in a Brazilian Population

Due to the difficulty of follow-up for long periods, information about the survival rates of malignant salivary gland tumors is deficient in the global scientific literature. This study was aimed at investigating the epidemiological profile and prognostic factors that might affect survival in patients with primary malignant salivary gland tumors in Brazil. Patients were investigated regarding histopathological subtypes, age, gender, anatomic localization, smoking and alcohol intake, tumor size, clinical stage, histological grade, recurrence, metastasis, and treatment on clinicopathological outcomes. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the log rank test and Cox regression, respectively. A total of 63 cases were analyzed, females beingslightly predominant (50.8%), with ages ranging from 13 to 87 years. The most common diagnosis was adenoid cystic carcinoma and the most affected anatomical location was the parotid. Tumors were predominantly classified as stage I and high-grade at the diagnosis. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 84.6% and 74.7%, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 71.6% (5 years) and 56.6% (10 years). Univariate analysis showed significant effects of tumor size and clinical stage on the DFS (P < 0.0001 for both), and Cox regression analysis confirmed clinical stage as an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.035). Our results highlight the relevance of clinical stage as an independent prognostic parameter for malignant salivary gland tumors.

Five-year survival after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term survival and prognostic factors for death within 5 years after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival and the independent baseline prognostic Factors for death over the next 5 years among all individuals and among 30-day survivors after a first-ever stroke in a population of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 362 (98%) were followed up at 5 years, by which time 210 (58%) had died. In the first year after stroke the risk of death was 36.5% (95% CI, 31.5% to 41.4%), which was 10-fold (95% CI, 8.3% to 11.7%) higher than that expected among the general population of the same age and sex. The most common cause of death was the index stroke (64%). Between 1 and 5 years after stroke, the annual risk of death was approximately 10% per year, which was approximately 2-fold greater than expected, and the most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (41%). The independent baseline factors among 30-day survivors that predicted death over 5 years were intermittent clandication (hazard ratio [WR], 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.9), urinary incontinence (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.0), previous transient ischemic attack (HR, 2.4; 95% CT, 1.3 to 4.1), and prestroke Barthel Index <20/20 (HR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.2). Conclusions-One-year survivors of first-ever stroke continue to die over the next 4 years at a rate of approximately 10% per year, which is twice the rate expected among the general population of the same age and sex. The most common cause of death is cardiovascular disease. Long-term survival after stroke may be improved by early, active, and sustained implementation of effective strategies for preventing subsequent cardiovascular events.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Clinical and pathologic prognostic factors for curative resection for pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the world. Operative resection is the only therapeutic option with curative potential for this disease. Objective. The aim of the present study was to correlate clinical and pathologic parameters with survival in patients submitted to pancreatic resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Methods. Surgical resection with curative intent (R0 and R1 resections) was performed in 65 pancreatic cancer patients between 1990 and 2006. The overall results of surgical treatment were retrospectively analyzed and compared with the clinicopathologic features of these patients. Results. Pylorus-preserving pancreatoduodenectomy was performed in 37 patients (56.9%), classic resection in 35.4%, distal pancreatectomy in 4.6% and total pancreatectomy in 3.6%. The inhospital mortality was 5% (three patients). Postoperative complications occurred in 28 patients (43%). Mean survival and five-year survival rate after curative resection were 27 months and 9.0%, respectively. Sex, TNM stage, tumor differentiation, neural invasion, tumor size and involvement of resection margin were significant prognostic factors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed tumor differentiation and neural invasion as prognostic factors. Conclusion. Patients with pancreatic cancer, even those with poor prognostic factors should be given the opportunity of surgical resection with curative intent.

Meningeal carcinomatosis in breast cancer: prognostic factors and outcome

Meningeal carcinomatosis (MC) occurs in up to 5% of breast cancer patients. Few studies have evaluated prognostic markers in breast cancer patients with MC. Our aim was to describe the treatment of breast cancer patients with MC, and identify prognostic factors related to survival. Sixty breast cancer patients that had a diagnosis of MC between January 2003 and December 2009 were included. The median age was 46 years (range 27-76). Most patients had invasive ductal carcinoma (78.3%) and high histological/nuclear grade (61.7/53.3%). Estrogen and progesterone receptors were positive in 51.7 and 43.3% of patients, respectively, and 15% were HER-2-positive. Symptoms at presentation were headache, cranial nerve dysfunction, seizures, and intracranial hypertension signals. Diagnosis was made by CSF cytology in 66.7% of cases and by MRI in 71.7%. Intrathecal (IT) chemotherapy was used in 68.3% of patients, and 21.6% received a new systemic treatment (chemo- or hormone therapy). Median survival was 3.3 months (range 0.03-90.4). There was no survival difference according to age, nuclear grade, hormonal and HER-2 status, CSF features, sites of metastasis, systemic and IT chemotherapy, or radiotherapy. However, histological grade and performance status had a significant impact on survival in the multivariate analysis. Only four papers have addressed prognostic factors in breast cancer patients with MC in the last two decades. The results of those reports are discussed here. High histological grade and poor performance status seem to impact survival of breast cancer patients with MC. Prospective studies are necessary to clarify the role of IT and systemic treatment in the treatment of those patients.

Short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the intensive care unit: prognostic factors

Decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients with advanced cancer are complex, and the knowledge of survival rates and prognostic factors are essential to these decisions. Ours objectives were to describe the short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to an ICU due to emergencies and to study the prognostic factors presented at ICU admission that could be associated with hospital mortality. We retrospectively analysed the charts of all patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted over a 1-year period. This gave a study sample of 83 patients. The ICU, hospital, 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 55.4%, 28.9%, 12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 26.2; P = 0.006) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (odds ratio 1.09; P = 0.026) were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. In conclusion, the survival rates of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the ICU due to emergencies were low, but of the same magnitude as other groups of cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The SAPS II score and thrombocytopenia on admission were associated with higher hospital mortality. The characteristics of the metastatic disease, such as number of organs with metastasis and central nervous system metastasis were not associated with the hospital mortality.

In pursuit of prognostic factors in children with pilocytic astrocytomas

This study described a 23-year experience in the treatment of children with pilocytic astrocytomas (piloA) with the aim of identifying putative clinical, histopathological, and/or immunohistochemical features that could be related to the outcome of these patients. Clinical data of 31 patients under 18 years of age with piloA were obtained from 1984 to 2006. The mean age at the time of surgery was 7.8 +/- 4.2 years (1 to 17 years), and the mean follow-up was 5.7 +/- 5.4 years (1 to 20 years). The most common site of tumor formation was the cerebellum (17), followed by brainstem (4), optic chiasmatic hypothalamic region (4), cerebral hemisphere (3), cervical spinal cord (2), and optic nerve (1). Gross total resection (GTR) was achieved in 23 (74.1%), mainly in those with tumors located in the cerebellum and cerebral hemispheres (P = 0.02). The global mortality rate was 6.4%. Nine patients were reoperated. Rosenthal fibers, eosinophilic granular bodies, microvascular proliferation, and lymphocytic infiltration were observed in most cases. The mean Ki-67LI was 4.4 +/- 4.5%. In all cases, Gal-3 expression in tumor cells was observed with variable staining pattern. Aside from GTR, no other clinical, histopathological, or immunohistochemical features were found to be related to the prognosis. We postulate that strict follow-up is recommended if piloA is associated with high mitotic activity/Ki67-LI, or if GTR cannot be achieved at surgery. Tumor recurrence or progression of the residual lesion should be strictly observed. In some aspects, childhood piloA remains an enigmatic tumor.

Long-Term Outcome and Prognostic Factors of Juvenile Dermatomyositis: A Multinational, Multicenter Study of 490 Patients

Objective. To investigate the long-term outcome and prognostic factors of juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) through a multinational, multicenter study. Methods. Patients consisted of inception cohorts seen between 1980 and 2004 in 27 centers in Europe and Latin America. Predictor variables were sex, continent, ethnicity, onset year, onset age, onset type, onset manifestations, course type, disease duration, and active disease duration. Outcomes were muscle strength/endurance, continued disease activity, cumulative damage, muscle damage, cutaneous damage, calcinosis, lipodystrophy, physical function, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Results. A total of 490 patients with a mean disease duration of 7.7 years were included. At the cross-sectional visit, 41.2-52.8% of patients, depending on the instrument used, had reduced muscle strength/endurance, but less than 10% had severe impairment. Persistently active disease was recorded in 41.2-60.5% of the patients, depending on the activity measure used. Sixty-nine percent of the patients had cumulative damage. The frequency of calcinosis and lipodystrophy was 23.6% and 9.7%, respectively. A total of 40.7% of the patients had decreased functional ability, but only 6.5% had major impairment. Only a small fraction had decreased HRQOL. A chronic course, either polycyclic or continuous, consistently predicted a poorer outcome. Mortality rate was 3.1%. Conclusion. This study confirms the marked improvement in functional outcome of juvenile DM when compared with earlier literature. However, many patients had continued disease activity and cumulative damage at followup. A chronic course was the strongest predictor of poor prognosis. These findings highlight the need for treatment strategies that enable a better control of disease activity over time and the reduction of nonreversible damage.

Prognostic factors and survival analysis in a sample of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients

Objectives. The aims of this report were to describe the 5-year overall survival (OS) in a group of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients and to investigate the effects of age, gender, anatomic localization, tumor evolution time, smoking and alcohol intake, nodal status, tumoral recurrences, histologic classification, p53 and p63 immunoexpression, human papillomavirus DNA presence, and treatment on the prognostic outcome. Study design. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate analyses were made using the log rank test and Cox regression, respectively. Results. The 5-year OS was 28.6%, and the univariate analysis showed significant results for p53 and p63 immunoexpression, age, and anatomic localization. The Cox regression demonstrated poor OS for tumors with p53 immunoexpression and for patients aged over 60 years. There were also significant differences in survival depending on the anatomic localizations. Conclusion. These results highlight the influence of p53 immunoexpression, age, and anatomic localization in OSCC evolution. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2008; 106: 685-95)

Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Tongue and Floor of the Mouth: Analysis of Survival Rate and Independent Prognostic Factors in the Amazon Region

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) accounts for more than 95% of all malignant neoplasms in the oral cavity. Although several studies have shown the epidemiology of this cancer in Brazil, there do not seem to be any studies that describe the prognostic factors related to OSCC in the Amazon region. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the survival rate and prognostic significance of different factors in patients from this region affected by OSCC. Data from 85 patients with histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth identified from the Ofir Loyola Hospital archives were collected and analyzed using univariate (log-rank test) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) tests. The overall 5-year survival rate was found to be 27%. Univariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher for younger (<= 45 y) female patients, patients with T1-2 tumors and clinically clear neck nodes (N0), patients with early stage cancers (AJCC stage I-II), and patients treated with surgical procedures. However, multivariate analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate was significantly higher only in the younger patients and those who underwent surgical treatment. The age of the patient at the moment of diagnosis and treatment with surgical procedures were the only independent prognostic factors that affected the 5-year survival rate of the patients in this region.

Prognostic Factors in Adult Patients with Idiopathic IgA Nephropathy

Introduction. IgA nephropathy is the dominant primary glomerular disease found throughout the majority of the world’s developed countries. Accurately identifying patients who are at risk of progressive disease is challenging. We aimed to characterise clinical and histological features that predict poor prognosis in adults. Patients and Methods. We performed a single-centre retrospective observational study of biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy. The primary outcome was renal survival and death from any cause, and the secondary outcome was proteinuria remission. Results. Data from 49 cases were available for analysis with a median follow-up of 4 years. There were no deaths. Univariable analyses identified acute renal failure, low estimated glomerular filtration rate for ≥3 months (low eGFR), arterial hypertension, baseline proteinuria, glomerular sclerosis >50% and interstitial fibrosis >50% as poor prognostic markers. Low eGFR persisted significant by multivariable model that used only clinical parameters. Multivariable models with histopathologic parameters observed that tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis >50% was independently associated with the primary outcome. Proteinuria remission throughout follow-up had no prognostic value in our revision. Conclusions. Two independent predictors of poor renal survival at time of biopsy were found: low eGFR and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis >50%.

Prognostic factors influencing morbidity and mortality in esophageal carcinoma

PURPOSE: In 1980, operative mortality for esophageal resection was 29%. Over the last 15 years, technical and critical care improvements contributed to the reduction of postoperative mortality rate to 8%. The aim of this study is to analyze retrospectively the role of different factors (surgical procedure, stage of the disease, and anesthetic risk) on the postoperative mortality of 63 patients that underwent esophagectomy with gastric interposition for cancer. METHODS: Seventy-two patients underwent esophagectomy. The stomach was the esophageal substitute in 63 cases. Surgical procedures included transthoracic esophagectomy in 49 patients and transhiatal esophagectomy in 14 cases. Among the 49 transthoracic esophagectomy patients, there were 18 patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III). Among the patients that underwent transhiatal esophagectomy, there were 10 patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III). RESULTS: The operative mortality rate was 14% (2/14) in transhiatal esophagectomy group and 22% (11/49) in transthoracic esophagectomy group (P = ns). The postoperative mortality of patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III) was 47% (8/17) after transthoracic esophagectomy and 10% (1/10) after transhiatal esophagectomy (P <0.05). DISCUSSION: In our experience, the operative mortality was nearly 18% (16.6% after transhiatal esophagectomy and 20.8% after transthoracic esophagectomy). Among the patients with a high anesthetic risk (ASA III) that underwent surgery, the postoperative mortality was significantly lower after transhiatal esophagectomy (10%) compared to transthoracic esophagectomy (47%) (P <0.05).