Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Bid-ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market. An empirical analysis

Consistent with the implications from a simple asymmetric information model for the bid-ask spread, we present empirical evidence that the size of the bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market is positively related to the underlying exchange rate uncertainty. The estimation results are based on an ordered probit analysis that captures the discreteness in the spread distribution, with the uncertainty of the spot exchange rate being quantified through a GARCH type model. The data sets consists of more than 300,000 continuously recorded Deutschemark/dollar quotes over the period from April 1989 to June 1989. © 1994.

Do instructional attributes pose multicollinearity problems? An empirical exploration

It is commonly perceived that variables ‘measuring’ different dimensions of teaching (construed as instructional attributes) used in student evaluation of teaching (SET) questionnaires are so highly correlated that they pose a serious multicollinearity problem for quantitative analysis including regression analysis. Using nearly 12000 individual student responses to SET questionnaires and ten key dimensions of teaching and 25 courses at various undergraduate and postgraduate levels for multiple years at a large Australian university, this paper investigates whether this is indeed the case and if so under what circumstances. This paper tests this proposition first by examining variance inflation factors (VIFs), across courses, levels and over time using individual responses; and secondly by using class averages. In the first instance, the paper finds no sustainable evidence of multicollinearity. While, there were one or two isolated cases of VIFs marginally exceeding the conservative threshold of 5, in no cases did the VIFs for any of the instructional attributes come anywhere close to the high threshold value of 10. In the second instance, however, the paper finds that the attributes are highly correlated as all the VIFs exceed 10. These findings have two implications: (a) given the ordinal nature of the data ordered probit analysis using individual student responses can be employed to quantify the impact of instructional attributes on TEVAL score; (b) Data based on class averages cannot be used for probit analysis. An illustrative exercise using level 2 undergraduate courses data suggests higher TEVAL scores depend first and foremost on improving explanation, presentation, and organization of lecture materials.

Role of enhanced vector transmission of a new West Nile virus strain in an outbreak of equine disease in Australia in 2011

Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.

A novel breeding programme for improved growth in barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) using foundation stock from progeny-tested parents

Rapid genetic gains for growth in barramundi ( Lates calcarifer) appear achievable by starting a breeding programme using foundation stock from progeny tested broodstock. The potential gains of this novel breeding design were investigated using biologically feasible scenarios tested with computer simulation models. The design involves the production of a large number of full-sib families using artificial mating which are compared in common growout conditions. The estimated breeding values of their paternal parents are calculated using a binomial probit analysis to assess their suitability as foundation broodstock. The programme can theoretically yield faster rates of genetic gain compared to other breeding programmes for aquaculture species. Assuming a heritability of 0.25 for growth, foundation broodstock evaluated in two years had breeding values for faster growth ranging from 21% to 51% depending on the genetic diversity of stock under evaluation. As a comparison it will take between nine and twenty-two years to identify broodstock with similar breeding values in a contemporary barramundi breeding programme.

Toxicity of heavy metals to brine shrimp Artemia

Bioassay were carried out on 48h cultured nauplii of brine shrimp Artemia by exposing them to seven trace elements viz. copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn). Synergistic effects of all these elements and additive effects of Cu and Zn, Cd and Pb, and Ni and Fe were also investigated. Comparatively, the degree of toxicity for compound bioassays was higher than individual simple tests. The values were averaged and the expected median lethal concentration [LC sub(50)] of tested heavy metals was obtained by probit analysis on the basis of cumulative numbers of dead organisms after 24 and 48h. The order of toxicity of the metals to Artemia was Pb>Cd>Cu>Ni>Zn>Fe>Mn. Potency ratios of the seven metals were also calculated. The 24 and 48h variations obtained in LC sub(50) values were significantly different and relative implications of these are discussed.

The influence of organophosphorus pesticide-methylparathion on protein, lipid metabolism and detoxifying enzymes in rohu (Labeo rohita)

Methylparathion (MP) is an organophosphorus insecticide used world wide in agriculture due to its high activity against a broad spectrum of insect pests. The aim of the study is to understand the effect of methylparathion on the lipid peroxidation, detoxifying and antioxidant enzymes namely catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione Stransferase (GST), total reduced glutathione (GSH), lipid peroxidation (LPO), acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and disease diagnostic marker enzymes in liver, sarcoplasmic (SP) and myofirbirllar (MF) proteins in muscles, lipids and histopathlogical changes in various organs of Labeo rohita of size 75 i 6g at lethal and sublethal level of exposure. The probit analysis showed that the lethal concentration (LC 50%) for 24, 48, 72 and 96h were 15.5mg/L, 12.3mg/L, 11.4mg/L and 10.2mg/L respectively which is much higher compared to the LC50 for juvenile fish. The LPO level and GST activity increased five folds and two folds respectively on exposure to methylparathion at 10.2 mg/L and the level of the enzymes increased, on sub lethal exposure beyond 0.25mg/L. AChE activity was inhibited by 74% at a concentration of 1.8mg/L and 90% at 5.4mg/L. The disease diagnostic marker enzymes AST, ALT, ALP and LDH increased by about 2, 3 ,3 and 2 folds respectively at pesticide concentration of 10.2mg/L when compared to control. On sub lethal exposure, however the enzymes did not show any significant changes up to 0.5mg/L. At a concentration of 10.2 mg/L, there was a three fold increase in myofibrillar proteins while the increase in sarcoplasmic protein was above 1.5 fold. On sub lethal exposure, significant alteration was noticed up to 30 days up to 1mg/L of methylparathion concentration. Further exposure up to 45 days increased sarcoplasmic proteins (upto 0.5mg/L). ln the case of myofibrillar proteins, noticeable changes were observed at 1mg/L concentration right from 15th day. The cholesterol content in brain tissues increased by about 27% at methylparathion concentration of 5.4 mglL. However at 0.25mg/L sub lethal concentration, no significant alteration was observed in enzyme activity, muscle proteins, lipids and histopathology of the tissues. The results suggest that methylparathion has the potential to induce oxidative stress in fish, and that liver, muscle and brains are more sensitive organs of Labeo rohita, with poor antioxidant potentials at higher concentrations of the pesticide. The various parameters studied in this investigation can also be used as biomarkers of methylparathion exposure.

Hemispace differences in the visual perception of size in left hemi-Parkinson's disease

The visual perception of size in different regions of external space was studied in Parkinson's disease (PD). A group of patients with worse left-sided symptoms (LPD) was compared with a group with worse right-sided symptoms (RPD) and with a group of age-matched controls on judgements of the relative height or width of two rectangles presented in different regions of external space. The relevant dimension of one rectangle (the 'standard') was held constant, while that of the other (the 'variable') was varied in a method of constant stimuli. The point of subjective equality (PSE) of rectangle width or height was obtained by probit analysis as the mean of the resulting psychometric function. When the standard was in left space, the PSE of the LPD group occurred when the variable was smaller, and when the standard was in right space, when the variable was larger. Similarly, when the standard rectangle was presented in upper space, and the variable in lower space, the PSE occurred when the variable was smaller, an effect which was similar in both left and right spaces. In all these experiments, the PSEs for both the controls and the RPD group did not differ significantly, and were close to a physical match, and the slopes of the psychometric functions were steeper in the controls than the patients, though not significantly so. The data suggest that objects appear smaller in the left and upper visual spaces in LPD, probably because of right hemisphere impairment. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cooperative patronage: The National Smallholder Farmers’ Association of Malawi in Kasungu District

This paper estimates the determinants of farmers’ decisions to join a rural producer organisation, the National Smallholder Farmers’ Association of Malawi (NASFAM), in Kasungu District. Data for the study were collected in June and August 2003 using household-level questionnaires and stratified random sampling, where strata were membership status and gender. Probit analysis of 250 farmers shows that off-farm sources of income, distance of the farmer’s household from Kasungu District centre, age of the farmer, tobacco farming, education, household level land holding and gender determined the decision to join NASFAM. These results suggest that farmers should be informed of the potential benefits of participating in rural development efforts, and that rural communication and information infrastructure should be improved so as to reduce the costs of information access and transactions in general, if participation in organisations such as NASFAM is to be enhanced.

Warfarin susceptibility in the lesser bandicoot rat (Bandicota bengalensis)

Warfarin is a first generation anticoagulant that relies on multiple feeding events to achieve lethality in susceptible rodents. For the Bandicoot rat, warfarin susceptibility baselines were established using the lethal feeding period (LFP) test methodology. Against a 0.003% warfarin formulation, LFP50 values of 2 and 4 days, and LFP99 values of 16 and 10 days were obtained for males and females respectively. However, consumption of rodenticide was significantly reduced after the 4th and 5th days of test, at a time when animals would be expected to experience symptoms of warfarin toxicity. This would seriously compromise the Probit analysis, particularly for estimates of higher percentiles. Possible modifications to the methodology are discussed to overcome this problem. Although the majority of animals were highly susceptible to warfarin, one female animal that survived a high dose of active ingredient (79.1 mg kg-1) may bode for future resistance

What determines the out-of-home placement of children in the USA?

Using NCANDS data of US child maltreatment reports for 2009, logistic regression, probit analysis, discriminant analysis and an artificial neural network are used to determine the factors which explain the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. As well as developing a new model for 2009, a previous study using 2005 data is replicated. While there are many small differences, the four estimation techniques give broadly the same results, demonstrating the robustness of the results. Similarly, apart from age and sexual abuse, the 2005 and 2009 results are roughly similar. For 2009, child characteristics (particularly child emotional problems) are more important than the nature of the abuse and the situation of the household; while caregiver characteristics are the least important. All these models have low explanatory power.

Adoption of certified organic production: evidence from Mexico

Adoption of organic production and subsequent entry into the organic market is examined using Mexican avocado producers as a case study. Probit analysis of a sample of 183 small-scale (<15ha) producers from Michoacán suggests that adoption is positively influenced by management and economic factors (e.g. production costs per hectare and making inputs), but also by social factors (e.g. membership of a producers’ association). Experience in agriculture has a significant but negative effect. Effective policy design must be therefore be aware of both the economic and social complexities surrounding adoption decisions.

Determination of the susceptibility of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) to ivermectin and fipronil by Larval Immersion Test (LIT) in Uruguay

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus is an important cattle pest in Uruguay, and the law regulates its control. It is resistant to organophosphates, synthetic pyrethroids and, as recently discovered, to fipronil. Resistance to macrocyclic lactones (MLs) and amitraz have not been documented; however, veterinarians and farmers have reported treatment failures. The objective of the present work was to study the susceptibility of cattle tick strains from different Uruguayan counties to ivermectin (IVM) and fipronil by using the Larval Immersion Test (LIT). The Mozo strain was used as the susceptible reference strain. From 2007 to 2009, twenty-eight tick populations were collected from different cattle farms with and without history of IVM or fipronil use. A probit analysis estimated dose-mortality regressions, lethal concentrations (LC), and confidence intervals. The resistance ratio (RR) was determined at the LC(50) and LC(90) estimates. To classify a tick population in relation to resistance, three categories based on a statistical analysis of LC and RR between field populations and Mozo strains were defined: susceptible (no differences), incipient resistance (differences and RR(50) < 2) and resistant (differences and RR(50) >= 2). Eighteen field populations were tested with IVM and five of them presented a RR(50) range between 1.35 and 1.98 and the LC(50/90), which is statistically different from the Mozo strain (incipient resistance). However, the RR(90) increases >= 2 in four of the populations, confirming that tick resistance to IVM is emergent. The low RR values obtained could be a result of a low frequency of treatments with IVM. Twenty-seven tick populations were tested with fipronil and six were diagnosed as resistant according to the LIT. Cross-resistance was not observed between fipronil and IVM on these tick populations. The current study presents different R. (B.) microplus populations with an incipient resistance to IVM, and indicates that the fipronil tick resistance is restricted to certain areas in Uruguay. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.