Fatores genéticos e ambientais sobre a probabilidade de prenhez precoce em bovinos Caracu

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Development and validation of a pregnancy symptoms inventory

BACKGROUND. Physical symptoms are common in pregnancy and are predominantly associated with normal physiological changes. These symptoms have a social and economic cost, leading to absenteeism from work and additional medical interventions. There is currently no simple method for identifying common pregnancy related problems in the antenatal period. A validated tool, for use by pregnancy care providers would be useful. AIM: The aim of the project was to develop and validate a Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory for use by healthcare professionals (HCPs). METHODS: A list of symptoms was generated via expert consultation with midwives and obstetrician gynaecologists. Focus groups were conducted with pregnant women in their first, second or third trimester. The inventory was then tested for face validity and piloted for readability and comprehension. For test-re-test reliability, it was administered to the same women 2 to 3 days apart. Finally, outpatient midwives trialled the inventory for 1 month and rated its usefulness on a 10cm visual analogue scale (VAS). The number of referrals to other health care professionals was recorded during this month. RESULTS: Expert consultation and focus group discussions led to the generation of a 41-item inventory. Following face validity and readability testing, several items were modified. Individual item test re-test reliability was between .51 to 1 with the majority (34 items) scoring .0.70. During the testing phase, 211 surveys were collected in the 1 month trial. Tiredness (45.5%), poor sleep (27.5%) back pain (19.5%) and nausea (12.6%) were experienced often. Among the women surveyed, 16.2% claimed to sometimes or often be incontinent. Referrals to the incontinence nurse increased > 8 fold during the study period. The median rating by midwives of the ‘usefulness’ of the inventory was 8.4 (range 0.9 to 10). CONCLUSIONS: The Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory (PSI) was well accepted by women in the 1 month trial and may be a useful tool for pregnancy care providers and aids clinicians in early detection and subsequent treatment of symptoms. It shows promise for use in the research community for assessing the impact of lifestyle intervention in pregnancy.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Development and validation of a pregnancy symptoms inventory

Background Physical symptoms are common in pregnancy and are predominantly associated with normal physiological changes. These symptoms have a social and economic cost, leading to absenteeism from work and additional medical interventions. There is currently no simple method for identifying common pregnancy related problems in the antenatal period. A validated tool, for use by pregnancy care providers would be useful. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory for use by health professionals. Methods A list of symptoms was generated via expert consultation with health professionals. Focus groups were conducted with pregnant women. The inventory was tested for face validity and piloted for readability and comprehension. For test-re-test reliability, the tool was administered to the same women 2 to 3 days apart. Finally, midwives trialled the inventory for 1 month and rated its usefulness on a 10cm visual analogue scale (VAS). Results A 41-item Likert inventory assessing how often symptoms occurred and what effect they had, was developed. Individual item test re-test reliability was between .51 to 1, the majority (34 items) scoring ≥0.70. The top four “often” reported symptoms were urinary frequency (52.2%), tiredness (45.5%), poor sleep (27.5%) and back pain (19.5%). Among the women surveyed, 16.2% claimed to sometimes or often be incontinent. Referrals to the incontinence nurse increased > 8 fold during the study period. Conclusions The PSI provides a comprehensive inventory of pregnancy related symptoms, with a mechanism for assessing their effect on function. It was robustly developed, with good test re-test reliability, face validity, comprehension and readability. This provides a validated tool for assessing the impact of interventions in pregnancy.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders’ bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder’s probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

On the probability of dizygotic twins being concordant for two alleles at multiple polymorphic loci

Accurate determination of same-sex twin zygosity is important for medical, scientific and personal reasons. Determination may be based upon questionnaire data, blood group, enzyme isoforms and fetal membrane examination, but assignment of zygosity must ultimately be confirmed by genotypic data. Here methods are reviewed for calculating average probabilities of correctly concluding a twin pair is monozygotic, given they share the same genotypes across all loci for commonly utilized multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) kits.