Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

USING PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICAL MODELS TO DRAW INFERENCES IN SENSOR NETWORKS WITH TRACKING APPLICATIONS

Sensor networks have been an active research area in the past decade due to the variety of their applications. Many research studies have been conducted to solve the problems underlying the middleware services of sensor networks, such as self-deployment, self-localization, and synchronization. With the provided middleware services, sensor networks have grown into a mature technology to be used as a detection and surveillance paradigm for many real-world applications. The individual sensors are small in size. Thus, they can be deployed in areas with limited space to make unobstructed measurements in locations where the traditional centralized systems would have trouble to reach. However, there are a few physical limitations to sensor networks, which can prevent sensors from performing at their maximum potential. Individual sensors have limited power supply, the wireless band can get very cluttered when multiple sensors try to transmit at the same time. Furthermore, the individual sensors have limited communication range, so the network may not have a 1-hop communication topology and routing can be a problem in many cases. Carefully designed algorithms can alleviate the physical limitations of sensor networks, and allow them to be utilized to their full potential. Graphical models are an intuitive choice for designing sensor network algorithms. This thesis focuses on a classic application in sensor networks, detecting and tracking of targets. It develops feasible inference techniques for sensor networks using statistical graphical model inference, binary sensor detection, events isolation and dynamic clustering. The main strategy is to use only binary data for rough global inferences, and then dynamically form small scale clusters around the target for detailed computations. This framework is then extended to network topology manipulation, so that the framework developed can be applied to tracking in different network topology settings. Finally the system was tested in both simulation and real-world environments. The simulations were performed on various network topologies, from regularly distributed networks to randomly distributed networks. The results show that the algorithm performs well in randomly distributed networks, and hence requires minimum deployment effort. The experiments were carried out in both corridor and open space settings. A in-home falling detection system was simulated with real-world settings, it was setup with 30 bumblebee radars and 30 ultrasonic sensors driven by TI EZ430-RF2500 boards scanning a typical 800 sqft apartment. Bumblebee radars are calibrated to detect the falling of human body, and the two-tier tracking algorithm is used on the ultrasonic sensors to track the location of the elderly people.

A review on probabilistic graphical models in evolutionary computation

Thanks to their inherent properties, probabilistic graphical models are one of the prime candidates for machine learning and decision making tasks especially in uncertain domains. Their capabilities, like representation, inference and learning, if used effectively, can greatly help to build intelligent systems that are able to act accordingly in different problem domains. Evolutionary algorithms is one such discipline that has employed probabilistic graphical models to improve the search for optimal solutions in complex problems. This paper shows how probabilistic graphical models have been used in evolutionary algorithms to improve their performance in solving complex problems. Specifically, we give a survey of probabilistic model building-based evolutionary algorithms, called estimation of distribution algorithms, and compare different methods for probabilistic modeling in these algorithms.

Originator or propagator? Incorporating social role theory into topic models for twitter content analysis

A large number of studies have been devoted to modeling the contents and interactions between users on Twitter. In this paper, we propose a method inspired from Social Role Theory (SRT), which assumes that a user behaves differently in different roles in the generation process of Twitter content. We consider the two most distinctive social roles on Twitter: originator and propagator, who respectively posts original messages and retweets or forwards the messages from others. In addition, we also consider role-specific social interactions, especially implicit interactions between users who share some common interests. All the above elements are integrated into a novel regularized topic model. We evaluate the proposed method on real Twitter data. The results show that our method is more effective than the existing ones which do not distinguish social roles. Copyright 2013 ACM.

Automatic labelling of topic models learned from Twitter by summarisation

Latent topics derived by topic models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) are the result of hidden thematic structures which provide further insights into the data. The automatic labelling of such topics derived from social media poses however new challenges since topics may characterise novel events happening in the real world. Existing automatic topic labelling approaches which depend on external knowledge sources become less applicable here since relevant articles/concepts of the extracted topics may not exist in external sources. In this paper we propose to address the problem of automatic labelling of latent topics learned from Twitter as a summarisation problem. We introduce a framework which apply summarisation algorithms to generate topic labels. These algorithms are independent of external sources and only rely on the identification of dominant terms in documents related to the latent topic. We compare the efficiency of existing state of the art summarisation algorithms. Our results suggest that summarisation algorithms generate better topic labels which capture event-related context compared to the top-n terms returned by LDA. © 2014 Association for Computational Linguistics.

Incorporating social role theory into topic models for social media content analysis

In this paper, we explore the idea of social role theory (SRT) and propose a novel regularized topic model which incorporates SRT into the generative process of social media content. We assume that a user can play multiple social roles, and each social role serves to fulfil different duties and is associated with a role-driven distribution over latent topics. In particular, we focus on social roles corresponding to the most common social activities on social networks. Our model is instantiated on microblogs, i.e., Twitter and community question-answering (cQA), i.e., Yahoo! Answers, where social roles on Twitter include "originators" and "propagators", and roles on cQA are "askers" and "answerers". Both explicit and implicit interactions between users are taken into account and modeled as regularization factors. To evaluate the performance of our proposed method, we have conducted extensive experiments on two Twitter datasets and two cQA datasets. Furthermore, we also consider multi-role modeling for scientific papers where an author's research expertise area is considered as a social role. A novel application of detecting users' research interests through topical keyword labeling based on the results of our multi-role model has been presented. The evaluation results have shown the feasibility and effectiveness of our model.

Contextual text mining

With the dramatic growth of text information, there is an increasing need for powerful text mining systems that can automatically discover useful knowledge from text. Text is generally associated with all kinds of contextual information. Those contexts can be explicit, such as the time and the location where a blog article is written, and the author(s) of a biomedical publication, or implicit, such as the positive or negative sentiment that an author had when she wrote a product review; there may also be complex context such as the social network of the authors. Many applications require analysis of topic patterns over different contexts. For instance, analysis of search logs in the context of the user can reveal how we can improve the quality of a search engine by optimizing the search results according to particular users; analysis of customer reviews in the context of positive and negative sentiments can help the user summarize public opinions about a product; analysis of blogs or scientific publications in the context of a social network can facilitate discovery of more meaningful topical communities. Since context information significantly affects the choices of topics and language made by authors, in general, it is very important to incorporate it into analyzing and mining text data. In general, modeling the context in text, discovering contextual patterns of language units and topics from text, a general task which we refer to as Contextual Text Mining, has widespread applications in text mining. In this thesis, we provide a novel and systematic study of contextual text mining, which is a new paradigm of text mining treating context information as the ``first-class citizen.'' We formally define the problem of contextual text mining and its basic tasks, and propose a general framework for contextual text mining based on generative modeling of text. This conceptual framework provides general guidance on text mining problems with context information and can be instantiated into many real tasks, including the general problem of contextual topic analysis. We formally present a functional framework for contextual topic analysis, with a general contextual topic model and its various versions, which can effectively solve the text mining problems in a lot of real world applications. We further introduce general components of contextual topic analysis, by adding priors to contextual topic models to incorporate prior knowledge, regularizing contextual topic models with dependency structure of context, and postprocessing contextual patterns to extract refined patterns. The refinements on the general contextual topic model naturally lead to a variety of probabilistic models which incorporate different types of context and various assumptions and constraints. These special versions of the contextual topic model are proved effective in a variety of real applications involving topics and explicit contexts, implicit contexts, and complex contexts. We then introduce a postprocessing procedure for contextual patterns, by generating meaningful labels for multinomial context models. This method provides a general way to interpret text mining results for real users. By applying contextual text mining in the ``context'' of other text information management tasks, including ad hoc text retrieval and web search, we further prove the effectiveness of contextual text mining techniques in a quantitative way with large scale datasets. The framework of contextual text mining not only unifies many explorations of text analysis with context information, but also opens up many new possibilities for future research directions in text mining.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Dynamic topic-based adaptation of language models: a comparison between different approaches

This paper presents a dynamic LM adaptation based on the topic that has been identified on a speech segment. We use LSA and the given topic labels in the training dataset to obtain and use the topic models. We propose a dynamic language model adaptation to improve the recognition performance in "a two stages" AST system. The final stage makes use of the topic identification with two variants: the first on uses just the most probable topic and the other one depends on the relative distances of the topics that have been identified. We perform the adaptation of the LM as a linear interpolation between a background model and topic-based LM. The interpolation weight id dynamically adapted according to different parameters. The proposed method is evaluated on the Spanish partition of the EPPS speech database. We achieved a relative reduction in WER of 11.13% over the baseline system which uses a single blackground LM.

Feature LDA:a supervised topic model for automatic detection of web API documentations from the web

Web APIs have gained increasing popularity in recent Web service technology development owing to its simplicity of technology stack and the proliferation of mashups. However, efficiently discovering Web APIs and the relevant documentations on the Web is still a challenging task even with the best resources available on the Web. In this paper we cast the problem of detecting the Web API documentations as a text classification problem of classifying a given Web page as Web API associated or not. We propose a supervised generative topic model called feature latent Dirichlet allocation (feaLDA) which offers a generic probabilistic framework for automatic detection of Web APIs. feaLDA not only captures the correspondence between data and the associated class labels, but also provides a mechanism for incorporating side information such as labelled features automatically learned from data that can effectively help improving classification performance. Extensive experiments on our Web APIs documentation dataset shows that the feaLDA model outperforms three strong supervised baselines including naive Bayes, support vector machines, and the maximum entropy model, by over 3% in classification accuracy. In addition, feaLDA also gives superior performance when compared against other existing supervised topic models.

On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals.

Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.