Towards training-free appearance-based localization : probabilistic models for whole-image descriptors

Whole image descriptors have recently been shown to be remarkably robust to perceptual change especially compared to local features. However, whole-image-based localization systems typically rely on heuristic methods for determining appropriate matching thresholds in a particular environment. These environment-specific tuning requirements and the lack of a meaningful interpretation of these arbitrary thresholds limits the general applicability of these systems. In this paper we present a Bayesian model of probability for whole-image descriptors that can be seamlessly integrated into localization systems designed for probabilistic visual input. We demonstrate this method using CAT-Graph, an appearance-based visual localization system originally designed for a FAB-MAP-style probabilistic input. We show that using whole-image descriptors as visual input extends CAT-Graph’s functionality to environments that experience a greater amount of perceptual change. We also present a method of estimating whole-image probability models in an online manner, removing the need for a prior training phase. We show that this online, automated training method can perform comparably to pre-trained, manually tuned local descriptor methods.

Building macroscale models from microscale probabilistic models : a general probabilistic approach for nonlinear diffusion and multispecies phenomena

A discrete agent-based model on a periodic lattice of arbitrary dimension is considered. Agents move to nearest-neighbor sites by a motility mechanism accounting for general interactions, which may include volume exclusion. The partial differential equation describing the average occupancy of the agent population is derived systematically. A diffusion equation arises for all types of interactions and is nonlinear except for the simplest interactions. In addition, multiple species of interacting subpopulations give rise to an advection-diffusion equation for each subpopulation. This work extends and generalizes previous specific results, providing a construction method for determining the transport coefficients in terms of a single conditional transition probability, which depends on the occupancy of sites in an influence region. These coefficients characterize the diffusion of agents in a crowded environment in biological and physical processes.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Preference networks : probabilistic models for recommendation systems

Recommender systems are important to help users select relevant and personalised information over massive amounts of data available. We propose an unified framework called Preference Network (PN) that jointly models various types of domain knowledge for the task of recommendation. The PN is a probabilistic model that systematically combines both content-based filtering and collaborative filtering into a single conditional Markov random field. Once estimated, it serves as a probabilistic database that supports various useful queries such as rating prediction and top-N recommendation. To handle the challenging problem of learning large networks of users and items, we employ a simple but effective pseudo-likelihood with regularisation. Experiments on the movie rating data demonstrate the merits of the PN.

Probabilistic models over ordered partitions with applications in document ranking and collaborative filtering

Ranking is an important task for handling a large amount of content. Ideally, training data for supervised ranking would include a complete rank of documents (or other objects such as images or videos) for a particular query. However, this is only possible for small sets of documents. In practice, one often resorts to document rating, in that a subset of documents is assigned with a small number indicating the degree of relevance. This poses a general problem of modelling and learning rank data with ties. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic generative model, that models the process as permutations over partitions. This results in super-exponential combinatorial state space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown ordering among them. We approach the problem from the discrete choice theory, where subsets are chosen in a stagewise manner, reducing the state space per each stage significantly. Further, we show that with suitable parameterisation, we can still learn the models in linear time. We evaluate the proposed models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the recently held Yahoo! challenge, and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. The results demonstrate that the models are competitive against well-known rivals.

Preference Networks: probabilistic models for recommendation systems

Abstract
Recommender systems are important to help users select relevant and personalised information over massive amounts of data available. We propose an unified framework called Preference Network (PN) that jointly models various types of domain knowledge for the task of recommendation. The PN is a probabilistic model that systematically combines both content-based filtering and collaborative filtering into a single conditional
Markov random field. Once estimated, it serves as a probabilistic database that supports various useful queries such as rating prediction and top-N recommendation. To handle the challenging problem of learning large networks of users and items, we employ a simple but effective pseudo-likelihood with regularisation. Experiments on the movie rating data demonstrate the merits of the PN.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Utilization of Probabilistic Models in Short Read Assembly from Second-Generation Sequencing

With the advent of cheaper and faster DNA sequencing technologies, assembly methods have greatly changed. Instead of outputting reads that are thousands of base pairs long, new sequencers parallelize the task by producing read lengths between 35 and 400 base pairs. Reconstructing an organism’s genome from these millions of reads is a computationally expensive task. Our algorithm solves this problem by organizing and indexing the reads using n-grams, which are short, fixed-length DNA sequences of length n. These n-grams are used to efficiently locate putative read joins, thereby eliminating the need to perform an exhaustive search over all possible read pairs. Our goal was develop a novel n-gram method for the assembly of genomes from next-generation sequencers. Specifically, a probabilistic, iterative approach was utilized to determine the most likely reads to join through development of a new metric that models the probability of any two arbitrary reads being joined together. Tests were run using simulated short read data based on randomly created genomes ranging in lengths from 10,000 to 100,000 nucleotides with 16 to 20x coverage. We were able to successfully re-assemble entire genomes up to 100,000 nucleotides in length.