925 resultados para price level changes


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Mode of access: Internet.

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This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk are assessed under two monetary regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). These effects differ because IT implies base-level drift in the price level, while PT makes the price level stationary around a target price path. Under IT, the welfare cost of long run inflation risk is equal to 0.35 percent of aggregate consumption. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, it is lowered to only 0.01 per cent. There are welfare gains from PT because it raises average consumption for the young and lowers consumption risk substantially for the old. These results are strongly robust to changes in the PT target horizon and fairly robust to imperfect credibility, fiscal policy, and model calibration. While the distributional effects of an unexpected transition to PT are sizeable, they are short-lived and not welfare-reducing.

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This paper explores whether a significant long-run relationship exists between money and nominal GDP and between money and the price level in the Venezuelan economy. We apply time-series econometric techniques to annual data for the Venezuelan economy for 1950 to 1996. An important feature of our analysis is the use of tests for unit roots and cointegration with structural breaks. Certain characteristics of the Venezuelan experience suggest that structural breaks may be important. Since the economy depends heavily on oil revenue, oil price shocks have had important influences on most macroeconomic variables. Also since the economy possesses large foreign debt, the world debt crisis that exploded in 1982 had pervasive effects on the Venezuelan economy. Radical changes in economic policy and political instability may have also significantly affected the movement of the macroeconomy. We find that a long-run relationship exists between narrow money (M1) and nominal GDP, the GDP deflator, and the CPI when one makes allowances for one or two structural breaks. We do not find such long-run relationships when broad money (M2) is used.

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The reconstruction of physical environments of Amazonian areas is of great interest to determine the dynamic evolution of the Amazon drainage basin. However. few studies have emphasized the Quaternary deposits in this region. which is mostly due to the lack of natural exposures imposed by the low topography. This work integrates facies analysis. radiocarbon dating, delta(13)C, delta(15)N, and C/N of an 124 m-thick core from an area located at the mouth of the Amazon River. northeastern Amazonia. The study records deposits up to 50.795 (14)C yr B P. in age. which formed in a variety of depositional environments including fluvial channel, tidal flat, outer estuarine basin to shallow marine. inner estuarine basin, estuarine channel and lagoon. Facies interpretation was significantly improved with the inclusion of delta(13)C, delta(15)N, and C/N analyses of organic matter extracted from the sediments The obtained values conform to a transitional. mostly estuarine paleosetting evolved during successive relative sea-level fluctuations. The results suggest fluvial deposition between 40,950 (+/- 590) and 50.795 (14)C yr B P, with a rise in relative sea level that commenced between 35,567 (+/- 649) and 39,079 (+/- 1114) (14)C yr B P. An overall transgression took place until 29,340 (+/- 340) (14)C yr B P., after which the relative sea level dropped, favoring valley rejuvenation and incision. Following this time up to 10,479 (+/- 34) (14)C yr B.P. a rise in relative sea level filled up the valley with estuarine deposits After 10.479(+/- 34) (14)C yr B.P., the estuary was replaced by a lagoon At the end of the Holocene, the coastline prograided approximately 45 km northward, replaci ng the lagoon by a lake system Despite the influence of eustatic fluctuations. regional tectonics played a significant role to create new space where these Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments accumulated. (C) 2009 Elsevier B V All rights reserved.

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A detailed knowledge of the 3-D arrangement and lateral facies relationships of the stacking patterns in coastal deposits is essential to approach many geological problems such as precise tracing of sea level changes, particularly during small scale fluctuations. These are useful data regarding the geodynamic evolution of basin margins and yield profit in oil exploration. Sediment supply, wave-and tidal processes, coastal morphology, and accommodation space generated by eustasy and tectonics govern the highly variable architecture of sedimentary bodies deposited in coastal settings. But these parameters change with time, and erosional surfaces may play a prominent role in areas located towards land. Besides, lateral shift of erosional or even depositional loci very often results in destruction of large parts of the sediment record. Several case studies illustrate some commonly found arrangements of facies and their distinguishing features. The final aim is to get the best results from the sedimentological analysis of coastal units.

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This article provides a fresh methodological and empirical approach for assessing price level convergence and its relation to purchasing power parity (PPP) using annual price data for seventeen US cities. We suggest a new procedure that can handle a wide range of PPP concepts in the presence of multiple structural breaks using all possible pairs of real exchange rates. To deal with cross-sectional dependence, we use both cross-sectional demeaned data and a parametric bootstrap approach. In general, we find more evidence for stationarity when the parity restriction is not imposed, while imposing parity restriction provides leads toward the rejection of the panel stationar- ity. Our results can be embedded on the view of the Balassa-Samuelson approach, but where the slope of the time trend is allowed to change in the long-run. The median half-life point estimate are found to be lower than the consensus view regardless of the parity restriction.

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This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Optimal indexation of long-term government debt is studied under two monetary policy regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). Under IT, full indexation is optimal because long run inflation risk is substantial due to base-level drift, making indexed bonds a much better store of value than nominal bonds. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, optimal indexation is substantially lower because nominal bonds become a better store of value relative to indexed bonds. These results are robust to the PT target horizon, imperfect credibility of PT and model calibration, but the assumption that indexation is lagged is crucial. From a policy perspective, a key finding is that accounting for optimal indexation has important welfare implications for comparisons of IT and PT.

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BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 1.8 million premature (<75 years) death annually in Europe. The majority of these deaths are preventable with the most efficient and cost-effective approach being on the population level. The aim of this position paper is to assist authorities in selecting the most adequate management strategies to prevent CVD. DESIGN AND METHODS: Experts reviewed and summarized the published evidence on the major modifiable CVD risk factors: food, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol. Population-based preventive strategies focus on fiscal measures (e.g. taxation), national and regional policies (e.g. smoke-free legislation), and environmental changes (e.g. availability of alcohol). RESULTS: Food is a complex area, but several strategies can be effective in increasing fruit and vegetables and lowering intake of salt, saturated fat, trans-fats, and free sugars. Tobacco and alcohol can be regulated mainly by fiscal measures and national policies, but local availability also plays a role. Changes in national policies and the built environment will integrate physical activity into daily life. CONCLUSION: Societal changes and commercial influences have led to the present unhealthy environment, in which default option in life style increases CVD risk. A challenge for both central and local authorities is, therefore, to ensure healthier defaults. This position paper summarizes the evidence and recommends a number of structural strategies at international, national, and regional levels that in combination can substantially reduce CVD.

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This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

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This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

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The aim of this paper was to investigate the possible connections between ammonite faunal turnover and the eustatic events recorded in Tethyan sequences during the middle Toarcian/early Bajocian time interval. For this we have analysed the biostratigraphic ranges, at the subzone level, of approximately 600 ammonite species belonging to 160 genera from several selected sections of the western Tethys (Mediterranean and Submediterranean provinces). The analysis of taxon ranges enabled us to plot curves for ammonite faunal turnovers, inter-subzonal distance, and diversity. Comparing the mentioned curves with Tethyan sequences [Hardenbol et al., 19981, we find that sea-level changes correlate well with origination and extinction events and faunal diversity. Most of the faunal turnovers correlate with stratigraphic events. Extinction events with their corresponding decrease in diversity correlate with regressive intervals and with major or minor sequence boundaries. Origination events and their corresponding increase in diversity were clearly connected with transgressions in Tethyan sequences. In several cases, the major sequence boundary and the subsequent transgressive phase correlate with major ammonite faunal turnover, whereas minor or medium sequence boundaries generally gave rise to minor or medium turnovers.

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This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

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This paper reports graphical and statistical evidence that the inflation targeting regimes in Canada and the UK - but not in Australia, New Zealand, or Sweden - actually resemble price-level targeting. In particular, the price level closely tracks the path implied by the inflation target, and the time-series predictions of the "bygones-are-bygones" version of inflation targeting are rejected by the data in favor of those implied by price-level targeting. These results indicate heterogeneity in the actual application of inflation targeting across countries and, for Canada and the UK, imply that the characterization of inflation targeting as a policy where shocks are accommodated is at odds with the data. Moreover, up to extent that their current policies already resemble price-level targeting, the welfare gains of replacing inflation with (explicit) price-level targeting are likely to be small.

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Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Global-mean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term) and to mass loss from glaciers and ice caps agree within uncertainties with observational estimates of these terms, but their sum falls short of the observed rate of sea level rise. This discrepancy has been discussed by previous authors; a completely satisfactory explanation of twentieth-century sea level rise is lacking. The model suggests that the apparent onset of sea level rise and glacier retreat during the first part of the nineteenth century was due to natural forcing. The rate of sea level rise was larger during the twentieth century than during the previous centuries because of anthropogenic forcing, but decreasing natural forcing during the second half of the twentieth century tended to offset the anthropogenic acceleration in the rate. Volcanic eruptions cause rapid falls in sea level, followed by recovery over several decades. The model shows substantially less decadal variability in sea level and its thermal expansion component than twentieth-century observations indicate, either because it does not generate sufficient ocean internal variability, or because the observational analyses overestimate the variability.