Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Views on Effect of Recycled Aggregates on Concrete Compressive Strength

This paper presents an in-depth study on the effect that composition and properties of recycled coarse aggregates from previous concrete structures, together with water/cement ratio (w/c) and a replacement ratio of coarse aggregate, have on compressive strength, its evolution through time, and its variability. A rigorous approach through statistical inference based on multiple linear regression has identified the key factors. A predictive equation is given for compressive strength when recycled coarse aggregates are used. The w/c and replacement ratio are the capital factors affecting concrete compressive strength. Their effect is significantly modified by the properties and composition of the recycled aggregates used. An equation that accurately predicts concrete compressive strength in terms of these parameters is presented. Particular attention has been paid to the complex effect that old concrete and adhered mortar have on concrete compressive strength and its mid-term evolution. It has been confirmed that the presence of contaminants tends to increase variability of compressive strength values.

The hydraulics and resulting bed scour within the vicinity of Submerged Single Span Arch Bridges

As a consequence of climate change there is now a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events where, with higher rates of urbanisation, the built environment has become increasingly affected by flooding.. This is of particular importance in relation to the stability of bridge structures that span rivers and canals etc. In November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The rainfall was logged as the highest level of rainfall ever recorded within the UK, and as a direct consequence, unprecedented flooding occurred in Cumbria. This flooding led to the collapse of three road bridges which were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, with relatively shallow foundations. In the UK, knowledge of the combined effect of bridge scouring and inundation has been not been particularly widely studied. Research carried out by Hamill et al [1] considered the hydraulic analysis of single arch bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to scouring. Prior to this, Bierry and Delleur [2] produced a classic paper in predicting the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focussing on predicting afflux as opposed to bridge scour. Further work on backwater effects was carried out by Martin-Vide & Prio [3] in semi-circular arch bridges. Both pressurized and free-surface flows at the bridge were investigated. Flows on a mobile bed in clear-water conditions were compared to those with a rigid bed, but no predictive equation for scour under pressurised conditions was considered. This paper will present initial findings from an experimental investigation into the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of clear water scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented, where results will be correlated to the most recent predictive equations that are proposed.

Stability of Short-span Bridges Subject to Overtopping during Floods: Case Studies from UK and the USA

As a consequence of increased levels of flooding, largely attributable to urbanization of watersheds (and perhaps climate change, more frequent extreme rainfall events are occurring and threatening existing critical infrastructure. Many of which are short-span bridges over relatively small waterways (e.g., small rivers, streams and canals). Whilst these short-span bridges were designed, often many years ago, to pass relatively minor the then standard return-period floods, in recenttimes the failure incidence of such short-span bridges has been noticeably increasing. This is suggestive of insufficient hydraulic capacity or alternative failure mechanism not envisaged at the time of design e.g. foundation scour or undermining. This paper presen ts, and draws lessons, from bridge failures in Ireland and the USA. For example, in November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The resulting flooding led to the collapse of three UK bridges that were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, withrelatively shallow foundations. Parallel failure events have been observed in the USA. To date, knowledge of the combined effect of waterway erosion, bridge submergence, and geotechnical collapse has not been adequately studied. Recent research carried out considered the hydraulic analysis of short span bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to erosive coupling of hydraulic and geotechnical factors. Some work has been done to predict the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focusing onpredicting afflux, as opposed to bridge scour, under both pressurized and free-surface flows, but no ! predictive equation for scour under pressurized conditions was ever considered. The case studies this paper presents will be augmented by the initial findings from the laboratory experiments investigating the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of consequent scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented and correlated to the most recent predictive equations for submerged contraction and abutment scour. The accuracy of these equations is examined, and the findings used as a basis for developing further studies in relation to short span bridges.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

Use of respiration rates of scyphozoan jellyfish to estimate their effects on the food web

One of the main objectives of research on jellyfish is to determine their effects on the food web. They are voracious consumers that have similar diets to those of zooplanktivorous fish, as well as eating microplankton and ichthyoplankton. Respiration rates (RRs) can be used to estimate the amount of food needed to balance metabolism, and thereby estimate minimum ingestion. We compiled RRs for scyphozoan medusae in three suborders (Semeaostomeae, Rhizostomeae, and Coronatae) to determine if a single regression could relate RRs to mass for diverse scyphomedusan species. Temperature (7–30°C) was not a significant factor. RRs versus wet weight (WW) regressions differed significantly for semeaostome and rhizostome medusae; however, RRs versus carbon mass over five-orders of magnitude did not differ significantly among suborders. RRs were isometric against medusa carbon mass, with data for all species scaling to the power 0.94. The scyphomedusa respiration rate (SRR) regression enables estimation of RR for any scyphomedusa from its carbon mass. The error of the SRR regression was ±72%, which is small in comparison with the 1,000-fold variation in field sampling. This predictive equation (RR in ml O2 d−1 = 83.37 * g C0.940) can be used to estimate minimum ingestion by scyphomedusae without exhaustive collection of feeding data. In addition, effects of confinement on RRs during incubation of medusae were tested. Large medusae incubated in small container volumes (CV) relative to their size (ratios of CV:WW < 50) had RRs ~one-tenth those of medusae in relatively larger containers. Depleted oxygen during incubation did not depress RRs of the medusae; however, swimming may have been restricted and respiration reduced in consequence. We briefly review other problems with RR experiments and suggest protocols and limitations for estimating ingestion rates of jellyfish from metabolic rates.

Avaliação das pressões respiratórias máximas em crianças e adolescentes da grande Natal: elaboração de uma equação preditiva

The human respiratory system was so designed that would allow efficient ventilation, regardless of variations in the external environment that may hinder the act of breathing, such an act involves dozens of variables, among them we find the respiratory depression, which is nothing more than respiratory muscle strength. The pressures are widely used in several cases: Neuro-muscular; evolution of pulmonary dysfunction and a predictor for discontinuation of mechanical ventilation. Therefore it was proposed to carry out evaluations of these respiratory pressures for children and adolescents aged 10 to 16 years and propose a predictive equation that involves the anthropometric variables age (A, years), body mass (BM, kilograms) and height (H, meters) with maximal respiratory pressures (maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressure). Evaluations were performed in this age group of students in public and private schools of the Grande Natal , measurements were performed using the analogue manometer, were children and adolescents and their parents gave informed consent. 517 samples were taken, and 250 for males (M), 255 for females (F) and 12 were excluded according to our exclusion criteria. The sample was subdivided into three age groups (10-11, 12-13 and 14 to 16 years old). It was found through the student s t test (p ≤ 0.05) for all variables studied, children and male adolescents had higher means than females, except for the MC. For the correlation between the variables found significant correlation (p <0.05) among all the variables when analyzed as pairs except between MIP and height for females. The development of predictive equations (for p ≤ 0.05) based on three types of strategies adopted were restricted to two association between anthropometric variables isolated, resulting in: for males: MIP = -32.29 + (-2.11*A) + (-0.52*BM), MIP = 9.99 + (-0.36*BM) + (-49.40*H); MEP = 18.54 + 3.53*A + 0, 42*BM, MEP = -33.37 + 2.78*A + 52.18* H, MEP = -17.39 + 0.33*BM + 55.04*H; and, for females we find: MEP = 24.32 + 2.59 * A + 0.24*BM

Predição da maturação puberal de indivíduos do sexo masculino a partir de variáveis antropométricas

The methods of analysis of the selection system sports talent sometimes do not consider the biological age of the athletes, since that the assessment of maturational moment have several limitations The aim of this work is to develop a predictive equation of pubertal assessment in male subjects, based on anthropometric measurements. We evaluated 206 young boys, aged between eight and 18 years, and studing in public and private schools in Natal, Brazil. The sample selection was done randomly, being used the anthropometric measurements and pubertal maturation evaluation according to the Tanner stages. Statistical analysis followed the presentation of central tendency measures and their derivatives. The inferential analysis was performed according to the ANOVA test, multivariate discriminant analysis and weighted Kappa. The advancement of pubertal stages was accompanied by significant changes in anthropometric variables, demonstrating the relationship presented in both. For this purpose, discriminant analysis selected eight variables with the highest prediction of pubertal maturation, and created an equation with a significance level of 75%. and concordance level of 0.840, considered as excellent. This shows that the prediction of pubertal maturation from anthropometric variables presented as a valid method, being used as a practical tool in sports talents selection

Estimation of Maximal Work Rate Based on the 6-Minute Walk Test and Fat-Free Mass in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise preditiva da densidade mineral óssea em adolescentes brasileiros eutróficos do sexo masculino

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparação entre a adiposidade subcutânea dos hemicorpos direito e esquerdo

O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar os níveis de adiposidade subcutânea dos hemicorpos direito e esquerdo e, posteriormente, analisar o impacto dessas informações para o estudo da composição corporal. Setenta e seis indivíduos fisicamente ativos, 47 homens (21,6 ± 4,3 anos) e 29 mulheres (21,0 ± 2,6 anos), fizeram parte da amostra. As espessuras das dobras cutâneas abdominal, suprailíaca, subescapular, tricipital, bicipital, axilar média e perna medial foram mensuradas com um compasso Lange. Em valores médios absolutos, as maiores diferenças verificadas foram de 0,9mm (6,9%) e 0,8mm (6,8%), na dobra cutânea suprailíaca de homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Entretanto, nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significante foi encontrada na comparação entre os lados, em ambos os sexos, nas sete dobras cutâneas analisadas (P > 0,05). Similarmente, quando os valores medidos foram aplicados em equações preditivas para a determinação da gordura corporal relativa, de acordo com o sexo, nenhuma diferença significante foi encontrada (P > 0,05). Os resultados sugerem que fatores como o erro técnico de medida do avaliador, o tipo de compasso e a escolha da equação preditiva a ser utilizada, provavelmente tenham maior impacto para a estimativa da composição corporal pelo método de espessura de dobras cutâneas do que o lado a ser adotado como referência para a obtenção das medidas.

Predição da potência aeróbia (VO 2máx) de crianças e adolescentes em teste incremental na esteira rolante

The maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) is the maximal quantity of energy that can be produced by the aerobic metabolism in certain time unity. It can be determined direct or indirectly by predictive equations. The objective of this study was to make a specific predictive equation to determine the VO 2max from boys aged 10-16 years-old. Forty-two boys underwent a treadmill running ergospirometric test, with the initial velocity set at 9 km/h, until voluntary exhaustion. By the multiple linear regression was possible to develop the following equation for the indirect determination of the VO 2max: VO2max (ml/min) = -1574.06 + (141.38 x Vpeak) + (48.34 * Body mass), with standard error of estimate = 191.5 ml/min (4.10 ml/kg/min) and coefficient of determination = 0.934. We suggest that this formula is appropriate to predict VO2max for this population.

Relationship between thirty post-thaw spermatozoal characteristics and the field fertility of 11 high-use Australian dairy AI sires

This study determined the relationship between two measures of field fertility of I I high-use Australian artificial insemination (AI) dairy bulls and thirty standard laboratory assessments of spermatozoal post-thaw viability. The two measures of field fertility used, conception rates (cCR) and non-return rates (cNRR), were both corrected for all major non-bull variables. Sperm viability assessments were conducted on semen collected within the same season as that used to derive the field fertility estimates. These assessments measured sperm concentration, motility, morphology and membrane integrity at thawing, after 2 h incubation and after the swim-up sperm selection procedure. Derivations of these measures and in vitro embryo fertilizing and developmental capacity were also determined. The Genstat Statistical Package [Genstat 5 Release 4.2 Reference Manual, VSN International, Oxford, 20001 was used to conduct an analysis of variance on the viability parameters across semen straws and bulls, and to calculate the strength of correlation between each semen parameter, cNRR and cCR in a correlation matrix. Step forward multiple regression identified the combination of semen parameters that were most highly correlated with cCR and with cNRR. The sperm parameters identified as being most predictive of cCR were the percentage of morphologically normal sperm immediately post-thaw (zeroNorm), the number of morphologically normal sperm after the swim-up procedure (nSuNorm), and the rate of zygote cleavage in vitro (Clv); the predictive equation formed by these parameters accounted for 70% of variance. The predictive equation produced for cNRR contained the variables zeroNorm, the proportion of membrane intact sperm after 2 h incubation at 37 degreesC (twoMem) and Clv and accounted for 76.5% of the variation. ZeroNorm was found to be consistent across straws and semen batches within-bull and the sperm parameter with the strongest individual predictive capacity for both cCR (P = 0.1) and cNRR (P = 0.001). Post-thaw sperm parameters can be used to predict field fertility of Australian dairy sires; the calculated predictive equations are particularly useful for identifying and monitoring bulls of very high and very low potential fertility within a group. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age determination in individual wild-caught Drosophila serrata using pteridine concentration

Fluorescence spectrophotometry can reliably detect levels of the pteridine 6-biopterin in the heads of individual Drosophila serrata Malloch 1927. Pteridine content in both laboratory and field captured flies is typically a level of magnitude higher than the minimally detectable level (mean(lab)=0.54 units, mean(field)=0.44 units, minimum detectable level=0.01 units) and can be used to predict individual age in laboratory populations with high certainty (r(2)=57%). Laboratory studies of individuals of known age ( from 1 to 48 days old) indicate that while pteridine level increases linearly with age, they also increase in a linear manner with rearing temperature and ambient light levels, but are independent of sex. As expected, the longevity of laboratory-reared males ( at least 48 days) is higher than the range of predicted ages of wild-caught males based on individual pteridine levels (40 days). However, the predictive equation based on pteridine level alone suggested that a number of wild-caught males were less than 0 days old, and the 95% confidence for these predictions based on the inverse regression broad. The age of the oldest wild-caught male is to fall within the range of 2 to 50 days. The effects of temperature and light intensity determined in laboratory study (effect sizes omega(2)=14.3 and respectively) suggests that the calibration of the prediction equation for field populations would significantly improved when combined with fine scaled studies of habitat temperature and light conditions. ability to determine relative age in individual wild-caught D. serrata presents great opportunities for a variety evolutionary studies on the dynamics of populations.