Toward robust image detection of crown-of-thorns starfish for autonomous population monitoring

Robust texture recognition in underwater image sequences for marine pest population control such as Crown-Of-Thorns Starfish (COTS) is a relatively unexplored area of research. Typically, humans count COTS by laboriously processing individual images taken during surveys. Being able to autonomously collect and process images of reef habitat and segment out the various marine biota holds the promise of allowing researchers to gain a greater understanding of the marine ecosystem and evaluate the impact of different environmental variables. This research applies and extends the use of Local Binary Patterns (LBP) as a method for texture-based identification of COTS from survey images. The performance and accuracy of the algorithms are evaluated on a image data set taken on the Great Barrier Reef.

Population monitoring of language and cognitive development in Australia : the Australian early development index

The Australian Early Development Index (AEDI) is a population measure of child development. The AEDI measures Language and Cognitive Development, Social Competence, Emotional Maturity, Physical Health and Wellbeing, and Communication Skills and General Knowledge. In Australia these data are collected by teachers for children in their first full time year of schooling. The aim of this paper is to aid people's understanding and interpretation of population measures such as the AEDI. With a greater awareness of the merits and complexities of population data clinicians and allied health professionals can play a vital role in aiding communities and policy makers to interpret and act upon the data in an intelligent way. This paper is primarily descriptive providing background information on the development and use of the instrument utilizing one of the 5 developmental domains (Language and Cognitive Development) as an example. The results show a complex relationship between children residing in differing socio-economic regions, children with English as their primary or secondary language and children who are able or not able to effectively communicate in English.

Changing guards: time to move beyond body mass index for population monitoring of excess adiposity

With the obesity epidemic, and the effects of aging populations, human phenotypes have changed over two generations, possibly more dramatically than in other species previously. As obesity is an important and growing hazard for population health, we recommend a systematic evaluation of the optimal measure(s) for population-level excess body fat. Ideal measure(s) for monitoring body composition and obesity should be simple, as accurate and sensitive as possible, and provide good categorization of related health risks. Combinations of anthropometric markers or predictive equations may facilitate better use of anthropometric data than single measures to estimate body composition for populations. Here, we provide new evidence that increasing proportions of aging populations are at high health-risk according to waist circumference, but not body mass index (BMI), so continued use of BMI as the principal population-level measure substantially underestimates the health-burden from excess adiposity.

Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Investigating the media power of a population health monitoring survey: case study of the NSW Schools Physical Activity and Nutrition Survey (SPANS)

Objective
To examine the extent and nature of news coverage of a government-funded population monitoring survey of children and the potential implications of this coverage for public health advocacy.

Methods
Case study of the NSW Schools Physical Activity and Nutrition Survey (SPANS), a population monitoring survey of school-aged children's weight and weight-related behaviours, conducted in 1997, 2004 and 2010. Printed news items from all Australian newspapers between January 1997 and December 2011 mentioning the survey findings were identified from the Factiva database and a descriptive analysis of the content conducted.

Results
Overall, 144 news items were identified. The news angles focused mainly on physical activity/sedentary behaviour; overweight/obesity and nutrition; however these angles changed between 1997 and 2011, with angles focused on physical activity/sedentary behaviour increasing, compared with overweight/obesity and nutrition angles (p=0.001). Responsibility for obesity and weight-related behaviours was most frequently assigned to parents and food marketing, and the most common solutions were policy strategies and parental/child education and support.

Conclusions
Population health surveys are newsworthy and when coupled with strategic dissemination, media can contribute to communicating health issues and interpreting findings in ways that are relevant for consumers, policy makers and stakeholders.

Implications
This case study emphasises the news value of government-funded population surveys, while providing a cautionary note about media focus on individual studies rather than a larger body of research evidence.

Population variation in biomonitoring data for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) : an examination of multiple population-based datasets for application to Australian pooled biomonitoring data

Background Australian national biomonitoring for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) relies upon age-specific pooled serum samples to characterize central tendencies of concentrations but does not provide estimates of upper bound concentrations. This analysis compares population variation from biomonitoring datasets from the US, Canada, Germany, Spain, and Belgium to identify and test patterns potentially useful for estimating population upper bound reference values for the Australian population. Methods Arithmetic means and the ratio of the 95th percentile to the arithmetic mean (P95:mean) were assessed by survey for defined age subgroups for three polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 138, 153, and 180), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), p,p-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), 2,2′,4,4′ tetrabrominated diphenylether (PBDE 47), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). Results Arithmetic mean concentrations of each analyte varied widely across surveys and age groups. However, P95:mean ratios differed to a limited extent, with no systematic variation across ages. The average P95:mean ratios were 2.2 for the three PCBs and HCB; 3.0 for DDE; 2.0 and 2.3 for PFOA and PFOS, respectively. The P95:mean ratio for PBDE 47 was more variable among age groups, ranging from 2.7 to 4.8. The average P95:mean ratios accurately estimated age group-specific P95s in the Flemish Environmental Health Survey II and were used to estimate the P95s for the Australian population by age group from the pooled biomonitoring data. Conclusions Similar population variation patterns for POPs were observed across multiple surveys, even when absolute concentrations differed widely. These patterns can be used to estimate population upper bounds when only pooled sampling data are available.

Monitoring wild pig populations: a review of methods

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are widespread across many landscapes throughout the world and are considered to be an invasive pest to agriculture and the environment, or conversely a native or desired game species and resource for hunting. Wild pig population monitoring is often required for a variety of management or research objectives, and many methods and analyses for monitoring abundance are available. Here, we describe monitoring methods that have proven or potential applications to wild pig management. We describe the advantages and disadvantages of methods so that potential users can efficiently consider and identify the option(s) best suited to their combination of objectives, circumstances, and resources. This paper offers guidance to wildlife managers, researchers, and stakeholders considering population monitoring of wild pigs and will help ensure that they can fulfill their monitoring objectives while optimizing their use of resources.

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) surveys in the North American Intermountain West: utilizing citizen scientists to conduct monitoring across a broad geographic scale

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species: (1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a “grassland” species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.

Assessing programs for monitoring threatened species – a tale of three honeyeaters (Meliphagidae)

We critically evaluated population-monitoring programs for three endangered species of Australian honeyeater: the helmeted honeyeater, Lichenostomus melanops cassidix, the black-eared miner, Manorina melanotis, and the regent honeyeater, Xanthomyza phrygia (Meliphagidae). Our results challenge the common assumption that meaningful monitoring is possible in all species within the five-year lifetime of recovery plans. We found that the precision achievable from monitoring programs not only depends on the monitoring technique applied but also on the species' biology. Relevant life-history attributes include a species' pattern of movement, its home-range size and its distribution. How well understood and predictable these attributes are will also influence monitoring precision. Our results highlight the large degree of variability in precision among monitoring programs and the value of applying power analysis before continuing longer-term studies. They also suggest that managers and funding agencies should be mindful that more easily monitored species should not receive preferential treatment over species that prove more difficult to monitor.

Assessing the intake of obesity-related foods and beverages in young children: comparison of a simple population survey with 24 hr-recall

Background: With an increasing focus on obesity prevention there is a need for simple, valid tools to assess dietary indicators that may be the targets of  intervention programs. The objective of this study was to determine the relative  validity of previous day dietary intake using a newly developed parent-proxy  questionnaire (EPAQ) for two to five year old children.

Methods: A convenience sample of participants (n = 90) recruited through preschools and the community in Geelong, Australia provided dietary data for their child via EPAQ and interviewer administered 24-hour dietary recall (24 hr-recall). Comparison of mean food and beverage group servings between the  EPAQ and 24 hr-recall was conducted and Spearman rank correlations were computed to examine the association between the two methods.

Results: Mean servings of food/beverage groups were comparable between methods for all groups except water, and significant correlations were found between the servings of food and beverages using the EPAQ and 24-hr recall methods (ranging from 0.57 to 0.88).

Conclusion: The EPAQ is a simple and useful population-level tool for  estimating the intake of obesity-related foods and beverages in children aged two to five years. When compared with 24-hour recall data, the EPAQ produced an acceptable level of relative validity and this short survey has application for population monitoring and the evaluation of population-based obesity prevention interventions for young children.

Utilization of a population health survey in policy and practice: a case study

Background
There is growing interest by funding bodies and researchers in assessing the impact of research on real world policy and practice. Population health monitoring surveys provide an important source of data on the prevalence and patterns of health problems, but few empirical studies have explored if and how such data is used to influence policy or practice decisions. Here we provide a case study analysis of how the findings from an Australian population monitoring survey series of children’s weight and weight-related behaviors (Schools Physical Activity and Nutrition Survey (SPANS)) have been used, and the key facilitators and barriers to their utilization.

Methods
Data collection included semi-structured interviews with the chief investigators (n = 3) and end-users (n = 9) of SPANS data to explore if, how and under what circumstances the survey findings had been used, bibliometric analysis and verification using documentary evidence. Data analysis involved thematic coding of interview data and triangulation with other data sources to produce case summaries of policy and practice impacts for each of the three survey years (1997, 2004, 2010). Case summaries were then reviewed and discussed by the authors to distil key themes on if, how and why the SPANS findings had been used to guide policy and practice.

Results
We found that the survey findings were used for agenda setting (raising awareness of issues), identifying areas and target groups for interventions, informing new policies, and supporting and justifying existing policies and programs across a range of sectors. Reported factors influencing use of the findings were: i) the perceived credibility of survey findings; ii) dissemination strategies used; and, iii) a range of contextual factors.

Conclusions
Using a novel approach, our case study provides important new insights into how and under what circumstances population health monitoring data can be used to influence real world policy and practice. The findings highlight the importance of population monitoring programs being conducted by independent credible agencies, researchers engaging end-users from the inception of survey programs and utilizing existing policy networks and structures, and using a range of strategies to disseminate the findings that go beyond traditional peer review publications.

Web search activity data accurately predict population chronic disease risk in the USA

BACKGROUND: The WHO framework for non-communicable disease (NCD) describes risks and outcomes comprising the majority of the global burden of disease. These factors are complex and interact at biological, behavioural, environmental and policy levels presenting challenges for population monitoring and intervention evaluation. This paper explores the utility of machine learning methods applied to population-level web search activity behaviour as a proxy for chronic disease risk factors. METHODS: Web activity output for each element of the WHO's Causes of NCD framework was used as a basis for identifying relevant web search activity from 2004 to 2013 for the USA. Multiple linear regression models with regularisation were used to generate predictive algorithms, mapping web search activity to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) measured risk factor/disease prevalence. Predictions for subsequent target years not included in the model derivation were tested against CDC data from population surveys using Pearson correlation and Spearman's r. RESULTS: For 2011 and 2012, predicted prevalence was very strongly correlated with measured risk data ranging from fruits and vegetables consumed (r=0.81; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) to alcohol consumption (r=0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98). Mean difference between predicted and measured differences by State ranged from 0.03 to 2.16. Spearman's r for state-wise predicted versus measured prevalence varied from 0.82 to 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: The high predictive validity of web search activity for NCD risk has potential to provide real-time information on population risk during policy implementation and other population-level NCD prevention efforts.

Evaluation of three field monitoring-density estimation protocols and their relevance to Komodo dragon conservation

Finding practical ways to robustly estimate abundance or density trends in threatened species is a key facet for effective conservation management. Further identifying less expensive monitoring methods that provide adequate data for robust population density estimates can facilitate increased investment into other conservation initiatives needed for species recovery. Here we evaluated and compared inference-and cost-effectiveness criteria for three field monitoring-density estimation protocols to improve conservation activities for the threatened Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). We undertook line-transect counts, cage trapping and camera monitoring surveys for Komodo dragons at 11 sites within protected areas in Eastern Indonesia to collect data to estimate density using distance sampling methods or the Royle-Nichols abundance induced heterogeneity model. Distance sampling estimates were considered poor due to large confidence intervals, a high coefficient of variation and that false absences were obtained in 45 % of sites where other monitoring methods detected lizards present. The Royle-Nichols model using presence/absence data obtained from cage trapping and camera monitoring produced highly correlated density estimates, obtained similar measures of precision and recorded no false absences in data collation. However because costs associated with camera monitoring were considerably less than cage trapping methods, albeit marginally more expensive than distance sampling, better inference from this method is advocated for ongoing population monitoring of Komodo dragons. Further the cost-savings achieved by adopting this field monitoring method could facilitate increased expenditure on alternative management strategies that could help address current declines in two Komodo dragon populations.