Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

The use of multibeam sonar mapping techniques to refine population estimates of the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni)

Multibeam sonar mapping techniques provide detailed benthic habitat information that can be combined with the data on species-specific habitat preferences to provide highly accurate calculations of populations in a particular area. The amount of suitable habitat available for the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) was quantified to aid in obtaining an accurate estimate of the number of remaining individuals at two offshore banks and one island site off the coast of southern California. Habitat was mapped by using multibeam sonar survey techniques and categorized by using rugosity and topographic position analysis. Abalone densities were evaluated by using a remotely operated vehicle and video transect methods. The total amount of suitable habitat at these three sites was far greater than that previously estimated. Therefore, although present estimates of white abalone densities are several orders of magnitude lower than historic estimates, the total population is likely larger than previously reported because of the additional amount of habitat surveyed in this study.

Breeding populations of seabirds in California, 1989-1991. Volume I - population estimates

In 1989-1991, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service surveyed breeding populations of seabirds on the entire California coast. This study was sponsored by the Minerals Management Service in relation to outer continental shelf oil and gas leasing. At 483 nesting sites (excluding terns and skimmers in southern California), we estimated 643,307 breeding birds of 21 seabird species including: 410 Fork-tailed Storm-petrel (Oceanodroma furcata); 12,551 Leach's Storm-petrel (O. leucorhoa); 7,209 Ashy Storm-petrel (O. homochroa); 274 Black Storm-petrel (O. melania); 11,916 Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis); 10,037 Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus); 83,394 Brandt's Cormorant (P. penicillatus); 14,345 Pelagic Cormorant (P. pelagicus); 888 Black Oystercatcher (Haemotopus bachmani); 4,764 California Gull (Larus californicus); 61,760 Western Gull (L. occidentalis); 2,838 Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia) (excluding southern California); 3,550 Forster's Tern (S. forsteri) (excluding southern California); 272 Least Tern (S. albifrons) (excluding southern California); 351,336 Common Murre (Uria aalge); 15,470 Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba); 1,821 Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus); 1,760 Xantus' Murrelet (Endomychura hypoleuca); 56,562 Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus); 1,769 Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata); and 276 Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata). The inland, historical or hybrid breeding status of American White Pelican (P. erythrorynchus), American Oystercatcher (H. palliatus), Heermann's Gull (L. heermanni), Ring-billed Gull (L. delawarensis), Glaucous-winged Gull (L. glaucescens) and Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) are discussed. Estimates for Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Royal Tern (S. maxima), Elegant Tern (S. elegans) and Black Skimmer (Rhynchops niger) will be included in the final draft of this report. Overall numbers were slightly lower than reported in 1975-1980 surveys (summarized in Sowls et al. 1980. Catalog of California seabird colonies. U.S. Dept. Int., Fish Wildl. Serv., Biol. Serv. Prog., FWS/OBS 37/80). Recent declines were found or suspected for Fork-tailed Storm-petrel, Leach's Storm-petrel, White Pelican, Black Tern, Caspian Tern, Least Tern, Common Murre and Marbled Murrelet. Recent increases were found or suspected for Brown Pelican, Double-crested cormorant, California Gull, Western Gull, Forster's Tern and Rhinoceros Auklet. Similar numbers were found for other species or trends could not be determined without additional surveys, studies and/or more in-depth comparisons with previous surveys. The status of terns and skimmers in southern California has not yet been finalized.

Population estimates and habitat use by the critically endangered Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis in south-eastern Kenya

The Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis (IUCN category: Critically Endangered) is a species endemic to south-eastern Kenya. We assessed population size and habitat use in the three forest sites in which it is known to occur (Ngangao, Chawia and Vuria, totalling 257 ha). The estimate of total population size, derived from distance sampling at 412 sample points, ranged from 310 to 654 individuals, with the northern section of Ngangao fragment having 10-fold higher densities than Chawia (2.47-4.93 versus 0.22-0.41 birds ha(-1)). Ngangao north alone hosted 50% of the global population of the species. The highly degraded Vuria fragment also had moderately high densities (1.63-3.72 birds ha(-1)) suggesting that the species tolerates some human disturbance. Taita Apalis prefers vegetation with abundant climbers, but the predictive power of habitat use models was low, suggesting that habitat structure is not a primary cause for the low density of the species in Chawia. Protecting the subpopulation in the northern section of Ngangao is a priority, as is identifying factors responsible of the low abundance in Chawia, because ameliorating conditions in this large fragment could substantially increase the population of Taita Apalis.

How to not inflate population estimates? Spatial density distribution of white-lipped peccaries in a continuous Atlantic forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Algunas estimaciones y proyecciones de población para el Caribe angloparlante = Some population estimates and projections for the English-speaking Caribbean

Incluye Bibliografía

Comparison between the United Nations population projections for Latin America and population estimates, 1950-1980

Includes bibliography

América Latina y Caribe: estimaciones y proyecciones de población 1950-2050 = Latin America and Caribbean: population estimates and projections 1950-2050

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

POPULATION ESTIMATES

In dealing with population estimates, we need to determine first the reason for estimating the population. If we are dealing with a local situation, are we concerned with a local estimate? If we are dealing with a regional problem, are we concerned with a regional estimate? The blackbird problem is chiefly a regional problem, but we need to look at broader horizons than just local or regional situations. Are we dealing with a national problem? Is this problem a year-round one or is it a seasonal problem? We may want to know just purely the number of birds we are dealing with. Another reason for doing population estimates might be to determine the effectiveness of some lethal control method that has been employed. Fortunately, those species with which we are most concerned are those not on the endangered species list at the present time. Many Ohio farmers would like to see the Red-winged Blackbird on the endangered species list, I think, but it is not there. My particular interest in population estimates is to determine if we can develop an early warning system for the agriculturists, so that they can better anticipate the time they can expect damage from birds. A lot of methods have been tried in the past.

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.