Policy impacts on Vietnam stock markets: a case of anomalies and disequilibria 2000-2006

Vietnam launched its first-ever stock market, named as Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center (HSTC) on July 20, 2000. This is one of pioneering works on HSTC, which finds empirical evidences for the following: Anomalies of the HSTC stock returns through clusters of limit-hits, limit-hit sequences; Strong herd effect toward extreme positive returns of the market portfolio;The specification of ARMA-GARCH helps capture fairly well issues such as serial correlations and fat-tailed for the stabilized period. By using further information and policy dummy variables, it is justifiable that policy decisions on technicalities of trading can have influential impacts on the move of risk level, through conditional variance behaviors of HSTC stock returns. Policies on trading and disclosure practices have had profound impacts on Vietnam Stock Market (VSM). The over-using of policy tools can harm the market and investing mentality. Price limits become increasingly irrelevant and prevent the market from self-adjusting to equilibrium. These results on VSM have not been reported before in the literature on Vietnam’s financial markets. Given the policy implications, we suggest that the Vietnamese authorities re-think the use of price limit and give more freedom to market participants.

Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy: impacts on tariffs

The debate on “exchange wars and trade wars” is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments – tariffs, as defined by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into three sections: the first one examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and its consequences for the multilateral trade system; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; and the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”

The Renaissance of Performance Funding for Higher Education: Policy Adoption, Implementation, and Impacts

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.

Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

EU Sanctions Policy towards Russia: The Sanctioner-Sanctionee’s Game of Thrones. CEPS Working Document No. 402/January 2015

Since Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the start of the conflict in the Donbass region, the EU has introduced three waves of restrictive measures against Russia, which are regularly updated. Having thus expanded from measures targeting individuals to entire sectors, the current EU sanctions policy impacts Russia’s financial markets, energy sector and defence industry. On top of this, new bans affect EU investments, services and trade in Crimea and Sevastopol. While they hurt the Russian economy, the EU sanctions also have a boomerang effect, especially in conjunction with the countersanctions imposed by the Kremlin on EU food imports. In this lose-lose situation, the usefulness of the EU sanctions has been called into doubt, in particular in those EU member states that are the most economically intertwined with Russia. How successful has the EU been so far in pushing its case with the Kremlin and what moves are left for the two main actors in the sanctioner-sanctionee ‘Game of Thrones’? This Working Document offers a SWOT analysis of the EU sanctions policy towards Russia and identifies the Strengths for the EU to cultivate, Weaknesses to minimise, Opportunities to seize and Threats to counteract.

IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Expanding the solution space for adaptation

6 p.

Quinto informe de evaluación (AR5) del GT-II del IPPC: aumentando el espacio de las soluciones para la adaptación

6 p.

IPPC-ren II. lan-taldearen bosgarren ebaluazio txostena (AR5): egokitzerako konponbideeremua zabaltzen

6 p.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Apropriação do conhecimento pedagógico-tecnológico em matemática e a formação continuada de professores

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Memórias de educadoras sobre a gestão de Paulo Freire na Secretaria Municipal de Educação de São Paulo

Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da pesquisa sobre a gestão de Paulo Freire na Secretaria Municipal de Educação da Cidade de São Paulo. Foi utilizada a metodologia da história oral, entrevistamos professoras da rede municipal de ensino de São Paulo que atuaram durante o período em que Paulo Freire foi secretário de educação desse município. Paulo Freire foi principal teórico brasileiro no campo da educação e também desempenhou o papel de gestor público. Ficou a frente de programas de alfabetização de adultos de governos do nordeste do Brasil e participou da equipe do MEC que pretendia promover o Programa de Alfabetização de Adultos durante o governo João Goulart. Em 1989, participou do governo de Luiza Erundina na prefeitura de São Paulo. Ocupou o cargo de Secretario Municipal de Educação até maio de 1991. Algumas das marcas de sua gestão foram a luta pela construção de uma escola popular e democrática, a conquista de direitos para os professores como a criação do Estatuto do Magistério Municipal, o restabelecimento dos Conselhos de Escola, a organização dos Ciclos nas escolas de ensino fundamental. Durante a pesquisa, foram entrevistadas dez professoras, utilizando-se a metodologia da História Oral. As professoras apresentaram relatos autobiográficos destacando o período em que Freire foi secretário de educação em São Paulo. Assim, registramos visões amplas sobre os eventos ligados à reconstrução democrática que marcaram a sociedade brasileira naquele período. No que tange ao campo educacional, a pesquisa apresenta algumas reflexões acerca da imagem de Paulo Freire e aspectos sobre a memória docente relacionados às condições de trabalho e às relações no interior das escolas. As entrevistadas abordaram temas como participação da comunidade na escola, a relação dos professores e o governo, o funcionamento dos conselhos de escola, entre outros. A pesquisa ainda reflete sobre os impactos de políticas públicas sobre a população a partir da ótica das professoras.

Avaliação de impactos não esperados: estudo de caso sobre o uso alternativo de crédito no Pronaf B

This Doctoral Dissertation deals with the evaluation of impacts, through the Case Study on deviations or redirects present in contracts Pronaf B, at Governador Mangabeira - BA , from 2011 to 2013. From the questioning about the expected impacts not contribute to the effectiveness of the program ? It was possible the measurement of the hypothesis that the effectiveness of unexpected impacts stems from the logic of family farming, unique socio-economic conditions of individuals and family units. The methodology is structured in the theoretical framework regarding the impact assessment and family farming, data collection, questionnaires among redirected contracting credit in PRONAF B and interviews with institutional actors involved . The results confirmed the existence of a logic family farm, able to take own decisions their mode of reproduction of life. As for the impact assessment, we added the importance of the unexpected in the evaluation of public policy impacts , while study of effectiveness with the beneficiaries and the significant contribution of their views.