Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Constructability improvement in sea water intake structure

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the process, and analyse the implementation of constructability improvement and innovation result during the planning and design for sea water intake structure of fertilizer plant project. Design/methodology/approach The research methodology approach is case study method at project level. This constructability improvement process was investigated by using constructability implementation check lists, direct observation, documented lesson learned analysis and key personnel interviews. Findings The case study shows that the implementation of constructability during planning and design stage for this sea water intake structure has increased the project performance as well as improved the schedule by 5 months (14.21%) and reduced the project cost by 15.35%. Research limitations/implications This case study was limited to three (3) previous sea water intake projects as references and one (1) of new method sea water intake structure at fertilizer plant project. Practical implications A constructability improvement check list using theory and lesson learned for the specific construction project was documented. Originality/value The findings support the relevant study of constructability and provide specific lesson learned for three (3) previous project and one (1) of the new innovation method of the construction project and documented by the company.

Massively parallel sequencing and analysis of expressed sequence tags in a successful invasive plant

Background Invasive species pose a significant threat to global economies, agriculture and biodiversity. Despite progress towards understanding the ecological factors associated with plant invasions, limited genomic resources have made it difficult to elucidate the evolutionary and genetic factors responsible for invasiveness. This study presents the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for Senecio madagascariensis, a globally invasive plant species. Methods We used pyrosequencing of one normalized and two subtractive libraries, derived from one native and one invasive population, to generate an EST collection. ESTs were assembled into contigs, annotated by BLAST comparison with the NCBI non-redundant protein database and assigned gene ontology (GO) terms from the Plant GO Slim ontologies. Key Results Assembly of the 221 746 sequence reads resulted in 12 442 contigs. Over 50 % (6183) of 12 442 contigs showed significant homology to proteins in the NCBI database, representing approx. 4800 independent transcripts. The molecular transducer GO term was significantly over-represented in the native (South African) subtractive library compared with the invasive (Australian) library. Based on NCBI BLAST hits and literature searches, 40 % of the molecular transducer genes identified in the South African subtractive library are likely to be involved in response to biotic stimuli, such as fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens. Conclusions This EST collection is the first representation of the S. madagascariensis transcriptome and provides an important resource for the discovery of candidate genes associated with plant invasiveness. The over-representation of molecular transducer genes associated with defence responses in the native subtractive library provides preliminary support for aspects of the enemy release and evolution of increased competitive ability hypotheses in this successful invasive. This study highlights the contribution of next-generation sequencing to better understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying ecological hypotheses that are important in successful plant invasions.

Demonstration of cellulosic ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant

The ready availability of sugarcane bagasse at an existing industrial facility and the potential availability of extra fibre through trash collection make sugarcane fibre the best candidate for early stage commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol technologies. The commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol technologies in the sugar industry requires both development of novel technologies and the assessment of these technologies at a pre-commercial scale. In 2007, the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) received funding from the Australian and Queensland Governments to construct a pilot research and development facility for the production of bioethanol and other renewable biocommodities from biomass including sugarcane bagasse. This facility has been built on the site of the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and is known as the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP). This research facility is capable of processing cellulosic biomass by a variety of pretreatment technologies and includes equipment for enzymatic saccharification, fermentation and distillation to produce ethanol. Lignin and fermentation co-products can also be produced in the pilot facility.

Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.