The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Phenological trends and trophic mismatch across multiple levels of a North Sea pelagic food web

Differential phenological responses to climate among species are predicted to disrupt trophic interactions, but datasets to evaluate this are scarce. We compared phenological trends for species from 4 levels of a North Sea food web over 24 yr when sea surface temperature (SST) increased significantly. We found little consistency in phenological trends between adjacent trophic levels, no significant relationships with SST, and no significant pairwise correlations between predator and prey phenologies, suggesting that trophic mismatching is occurring. Finer resolution data on timing of peak energy demand (mid-chick-rearing) for 5 seabird species at a major North Sea colony were compared to modelled daily changes in length of 0-group (young of the year) lesser sandeels Ammodytes marinus. The date at which sandeels reached a given threshold length became significantly later during the study. Although the phenology of all the species except shags also became later, these changes were insufficient to keep pace with sandeel length, and thus mean length (and energy value) of 0-group sandeels at mid-chick-rearing showed net declines. The magnitude of declines in energy value varied among the seabirds, being more marked in species showing no phenological response (shag, 4.80 kJ) and in later breeding species feeding on larger sandeels (kittiwake, 2.46 kJ) where, due to the relationship between sandeel length and energy value being non-linear, small reductions in length result in relatively large reductions in energy. However, despite the decline in energy value of 0-group sandeels during chick-rearing, there was no evidence of any adverse effect on breeding success for any of the seabird species. Trophic mismatch appears to be prevalent within the North Sea pelagic food web, suggesting that ecosystem functioning may be disrupted.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Variação intra-específica na fenologia de espécies de sub-bosque de floresta Atlântica e sua relação com variáveis microambientais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelización de la fenología del haba cv. Alameda

La predicción de la fenología del haba es un paso crítico para optimizar el manejo de los cultivos, así como para el desarrollo de modelos de cultivos. Este artículo examina la respuesta fenológica del cultivo de haba (Vicia faba L.) a diversos regímenes térmicos y fotoperíodicos evaluada mediante modelos lineales. Se realizaron diecisiete fechas de siembra durante tres años en Lugo, España (43°04’ N; 7°30’ W; altitud 480 m) en las que se hicieron observaciones fenológicas. El tiempo desde emergencia a floración se describe satisfactoriamente mediante un modelo fototérmico. Las tasas de desarrollo de siembra a emergencia, floración hasta la primera vaina y primera vaina hasta madurez fisiológica fueron modeladas en forma satisfactoria, utilizando solamente la temperatura como variable independiente. Los valores de temperaturas basales variaron entre 2,09 y 4,47°C, dependiendo del subperíodo fenológico. El fotoperíodo base resultó de 6,9 h mientras el fotoperíodo crítico fue de 16,2 h.

Adaptive responses of wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata) to photo-thermal environment. I. Phenology

The phenology of 11 diverse accessions of wild mungbean was observed under natural and artificial photoperiod - temperature conditions, in order to examine whether genotypic differences might be attributed to adaptive responses to photo-thermal conditions. There was large variation in phenological response among accessions and across environments, much of which was due to differences in the duration of the pre-flowering phase. Accessions that flowered earlier tended to flower for longer, apart from 2 earlier flowering, inland Australian lines that were also earlier maturing. The patterns of response in time from sowing to flowering over environment were consistent with quantitative short-day photoperiodic adaptation, a conclusion supported by the effects of artificial day-length extension and by 'goodness of fit' of the observed responses to standard models relating rate of development to photoperiod and temperature. The fitted models indicated that rate of development towards flowering was hastened by warmer temperatures, and delayed by longer day lengths, with differential sensitivity between accessions to both factors. The models also suggested that photoperiod was more important for accessions collected closer to the equator, which were generally later flowering as a consequence. Conversely, temperature was relatively more important in lines from higher latitudes. Modelling also suggested that the period from first flowering to maturity was sensitive to photoperiod and temperature. Again, longer days appeared to prolong growth and delay maturity. However, cooler temperatures accelerated rather than slowed maturity, by suppressing further vegetative growth. The variation observed indicated that there is considerable scope for using the wild population to broaden the adaptation of cultivated mungbean. In particular, the unusual response of a late-flowering, photoperiod-insensitive accession warrants further study to establish whether the wild population contains a unique 'long juvenile' trait analogous to that being used for improving phenological adaptation in soybean.

Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation

The likely phenological responses of plants to climate warming can be measured through experimental manipulation of field sites, but results are rarely validated against year-to-year changes in climate. Here, we describe the response of 1-5 years of experimental warming on phenology (budding, flowering and seed maturation) of six common subalpine plant species in the Australian Alps using the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) protocol.2. Phenological changes in some species (particularly the forb Craspedia jamesii) were detected in experimental plots within a year of warming, whereas changes in most other species (the forb Erigeron bellidioides, the shrub Asterolasia trymalioides and the graminoids Carex breviculmis and Poa hiemata) did not develop until after 2-4 years; thus, there appears to be a cumulative effect of warming for some species across multiple years.3. There was evidence of changes in the length of the period between flowering and seed maturity in one species (P. hiemata) that led to a similar timing of seed maturation, suggesting compensation.4. Year-to-year variation in phenology was greater than variation between warmed and control plots and could be related to differences in thawing degree days (particularly, for E. bellidioides) due to earlier timing of budding and other events under warmer conditions. However, in Carex breviculmis, there was no association between phenology and temperature changes across years.5. These findings indicate that, although phenological changes occurred earlier in response to warming in all six species, some species showed buffered rather than immediate responses.6. Synthesis. Warming in ITEX open-top chambers in the Australian Alps produced earlier budding, flowering and seed set in several alpine species. Species also altered the timing of these events, particularly budding, in response to year-to-year temperature variation. Some species responded immediately, whereas in others the cumulative effects of warming across several years were required before a response was detected.

Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora

Background The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. Results Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. Conclusions Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al.

Nitrogen metabolism in coffee plants in response to nitrogen supply by fertigation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Response of nutrient cycles of an old-growth montane forest in Ecuador to experimental low-level nutrient amendments

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) depositions are expected to increase in the tropicsrnas a consequence of increasing human activities in the next decades. Furthermore, a possiblernshortened El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle might come along with more frequent calcium (Ca)rndepositions on the eastern slope of the Ecuadorian Andes originating from Saharan dust. It isrncrucial to understand the response of the old-growth montane forest in Ecuador to increasedrnnutrient deposition to predict the further development of this megadiverse ecosystem.rnI studied experimental additions of N, P, N+P and Ca to the forest and an untreatedrncontrol, all in a fourfold replicated randomized block design. These experiments were conductedrnin the framework of a collaborative research effort, the NUtrient Manipulation EXperimentrn(NUMEX). I collected litter leachate, mineral soil solution (0.15 and 0.30 m depths), throughfallrnand fine litterfall samples and determined N, P and Ca concentrations and fluxes. This approachrnalso allowed me to assess whether N, P and/or Ca are limiting nutrients for forest growth.rnFurthermore, I evaluated the response of fine root biomass, leaf area index, leaf area and specificrnleaf area, tree diameter growth and basal area increment contributed from a cooperating group inrnthe Ca applied and control treatments.rnDuring the observation period of 16 months after the first fertilizer application, less thanrn10, 1 and 5% of the applied N, P and Ca, respectively, leached below the organic layer whichrncontained almost all roots but no significant leaching losses occurred to the deeper mineral soil.rnDeposited N, P and Ca from the atmosphere in dry and wet form were, on balance, retained in therncanopy in the control treatment. Retention of N, P and Ca in the canopy in their respectiverntreatments was reduced resulting in higher concentrations and fluxes of N, P and Ca inrnthroughfall and litterfall. Up to 2.5% of the applied N and 2% of the applied P and Ca werernrecycled to the soil with throughfall. Fluxes of N, P and Ca in throughfall+litterfall were higher inrnthe fertilized treatments than in the control; up to 20, 5 and 25% of the applied N, P and Ca,rnrespectively, were recycled to the soil with throughfall+litterfall.rnIn the Ca-applied plots, fine root biomass decreased significantly. Also the leaf area of thernfour most common tree species tended to decrease and the specific leaf area increasedrnsignificantly in Graffenrieda emarginata Triana, the most common tree species in the study area.rnThese changes are known plant responses to reduced nutrient stress. Reduced aluminium (Al)rntoxicity as an explanation of the Ca effect was unlikely, because of almost complete organocomplexationrnof Al and molar Ca:Al concentration ratios in solution above the toxicity threshold.rnThe results suggest that N, P and Ca co-limit the forest ecosystem functioning in thernnorthern Andean montane forests in line with recent assumptions in which different ecosystemrncompartments and even different phenological stages may show different nutrient limitationsrn(Kaspari et al. 2008). I conclude that (1) the expected elevated N and P deposition will bernretained in the ecosystem, at least in the short term and hence, quality of river water will not bernendangered and (2) increased Ca input will reduce nutrient stress of the forest.

Polarimetric Response of Rice Fields at C-Band: Analysis and Phenology Retrieval

A set of ten RADARSAT-2 images acquired in fully polarimetric mode over a test site with rice fields in Seville, Spain, has been analyzed to extract the main features of the C-band radar backscatter as a function of rice phenology. After observing the evolutions versus phenology of different polarimetric observables and explaining their behavior in terms of scattering mechanisms present in the scene, a simple retrieval approach has been proposed. This algorithm is based on three polarimetric observables and provides estimates from a set of four relevant intervals of phenological stages. The validation against ground data, carried out at parcel level for a set of six stands and up to nine dates per stand, provides a 96% rate of coincidence. Moreover, an equivalent compact-pol retrieval algorithm has been also proposed and validated, providing the same performance at parcel level. In all cases, the inversion is carried out by exploiting a single satellite acquisition, without any other auxiliary information.