The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Persistence and stability of cichlid assemblages in neotropical floodplain lagoons

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Time stability of soil water storage measured by neutron probe and the effects of calibration procedures in a small watershed

The knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) of soil profiles is crucial for the adoption of vegetation restoration practices. With the aim of identifying representative sites to obtain the mean SWS of a watershed, a time stability analysis of neutron probe evaluations of SWS was performed by the means of relative differences and Spearman rank correlation coefficients. At the same time, the effects of different neutron probe calibration procedures were explored on time stability analysis. mean SWS estimation. and preservation of the spatial variability of SWS. The selected watershed, with deep gullies and undulating slopes which cover an area of 20 ha, is characterized by an Ust-Sandiic Entisol and an Aeolian sandy soil. The dominant vegetation species are bunge needlegrass (Stipa bungeana Trim) and korshinsk peashrub (Carugano Korshinskii kom.). From June 11, 2007 to July 23,2008, SWS of the top1 m soil layer was evaluated for 20 dates, based on neutron probe data of 12 sampling sites. Three calibration procedures were employed: type 1, most complete, with each site having its own linear calibration equation (TrE); type II. with TrE equations extended over the whole field: and type III, with one single linear calibration curve for the whole field (UnE) and also correcting its intercept based on site specific relative difference analysis (RdE) and on linear fitting of data (RcE), both maintaining the same slope. A strong time stability of SWS estimated by TrE equations was identified. Soil particle size and soil organic matter content were recognized as the influencing factors for spatial variability of SWS. Land use influenced neither the spatial variability nor the time stability of SWS. Time stability analysis identified one site to represent the mean SWS of the whole watershed with mean absolute percentage errors of less than 10%, therefore. this site can be used as a predictor for the mean SWS of the watershed. Some equations of type II were found to be unsatisfactory to yield reliable mean SWS values or in preserving the associated soil spatial variability. Hence, it is recommended to be cautious in extending calibration equations to other sites since they might not consider the field variability. For the equations with corrected intercept (type III), which consider the spatial variability of calibration in a different way in relation to TrE, it was found that they can yield satisfactory means and standard deviation of SWS, except for the RdE equations, which largely leveled off the SWS values in the watershed. Correlation analysis showed that the neutron probe calibration was linked to soil bulk density and to organic matter content. Therefore, spatial variability of soil properties should be taken into account during the process of neutron probe calibration. This study provides useful information on the mean SWS observation with a time stable site and on distinct neutron probe calibration procedures, and it should be extended to soil water management studies with neutron probes, e.g., the process of vegetation restoration in wider area and soil types of the Loess Plateau in China. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

Persistence of EBV Antigen-Specific CD8 T Cell Clonotypes during Homeostatic Immune Reconstitution in Cancer Patients.

Persistent viruses are kept in check by specific lymphocytes. The clonal T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), once established following primary infection, exhibits a robust stability over time. However, the determinants contributing to this long-term persistence are still poorly characterized. Taking advantage of an in vivo clinical setting where lymphocyte homeostasis was transiently perturbed, we studied EBV antigen-specific CD8 T cells before and after non-myeloablative lympho-depleting chemotherapy of melanoma patients. Despite more advanced T cell differentiation, patients T cells showed clonal composition comparable to healthy individuals, sharing a preference for TRBV20 and TRBV29 gene segment usage and several co-dominant public TCR clonotypes. Moreover, our data revealed the presence of relatively few dominant EBV antigen-specific T cell clonotypes, which mostly persisted following transient lympho-depletion (TLD) and lymphocyte recovery, likely related to absence of EBV reactivation and de novo T cell priming in these patients. Interestingly, persisting clonotypes frequently co-expressed memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CD62L/SELL and CCR5) supporting the notion that they are particularly important for long-lasting CD8 T cell responses. Nevertheless, the clonal composition of EBV-specific CD8 T cells was preserved over time with the presence of the same dominant clonotypes after non-myeloablative chemotherapy. The observed clonotype persistence demonstrates high robustness of CD8 T cell homeostasis and reconstitution.

Characterising avian haemosporidian communities : ecological factors, parasite persistence and co-infection

Les parasites jouent un rôle clef dans l'évolution des comportements et des traits d'histoire de vie de leurs hôtes. Le parasitisme s'avère parfois dévastateur à l'échelle de population d'hôtes, et peut également altérer certains traits associés à la valeur sélective d'un individu infecté, tels que son succès reproducteur ou encore son taux de mortalité. La coévolution hôte/parasite, qui représente l'une des forces sélectives les plus puissantes dans l'évolution des organismes, peut également conduire les partenaires de l'association parasitaire à s'adapter localement à des environnements hétérogènes. Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de parasites aviaires, du genre Plasmodium, Haemopro- teus et Leucocytozoon (Haemosporidae), naturellement associés à différentes populations de mésanges charbonnières (Parus major) et d'hirondelles des fenêtres (Delichon ur- bicum). Dans un premier temps, nous avons cherché à déterminer comment se distribuent ces parasites au sein de différentes populations hôtes et si ces communautés de parasites sont structurées. Par la suite, la principale question à laquelle nous voulions répondre était de savoir comment ces parasites, et notamment après coexistence de plusieurs lignées génétiques d'Haemosporidae au sein dun même-individu (i.e. co-infection), affectent la physiologie et le succès de reproducteur des hôtes. Nos résultats suggèrent que la distribution des Haemosporidae est principalement gouvernée par la présence d'insectes vecteurs et que la persistance de l'infection chez les hôtes varie en fonction du genre d'Haemosporidae (Chapitre 1-2). Par ailleurs, nous avons trouvé que des lignées de parasite génétiquement distinctes peuvent avoir des effets contrastés sur leurs hôtes. Par exemple, les hôtes exhibent des différences de parasitémie marquées en fonction des lignées de parasites responsable de l'infection. De plus, le succès reproducteur ainsi que la charge parasitaire des mésanges infectées par Plasmodium ou Haemoproteus n'étaient pas affecté par l'infection simultanée avec Leucocytozoon (Chapitre 2-3). Dans le Chapitre 4, j'ai examiné la capacité immunitaire de mésanges charbonnières infectées par des hémosporidies. Les résultats n'ont pas été concluant, et je suggère fortement une réévaluation de ceux-ci dans de futures études. Les mésanges charbonnières ne semblent pas signaler leur statut infectieux par la coloration de leur plumage (Chapitre 5); toutefois, la coloration noire des plumes reflète l'état de stress oxydatif des mésanges, qui dépend lui-même de l'infection parasitaire. La coloration verte pourrait également indiquer la qualité des soins paxentaux délivrés par les mésanges adultes femelles à leurs petits, comme le suggère la corrélation que nous avons observée entre la masse des jeunes d'une nichée et la coloration de leur mère. Les hirondelles capturées en Algérie souffrent plus de l'infection que celles échantillon¬nées en Europe (Chapitre 6). Les similitudes observées entre les communautés de par¬asites affectant les populations européennes et celles des populations nord-africaines suggèrent que la transmission des parasites a lieu lors de la migration vers le sud. A l'instar de nos observations sur les mésanges dans les chapitres 2 et 3, les hirondelles co-infectées ne montrent pas d'altérations de leur condition physique. Cette thèse démontre qu'il existe, au sein des populations de mésanges charbonnières, des interactions antagonistes entre, d'une part, les parasites et leurs hôtes et d'autre part, entre différent parasites. Le résultat de ces interactions antagonistes varie en fonction des espèces et de la zone géographique considérée. Nous avons démontré que les interactions ne suivent pas toujours la théorie, puisque la coevolution qui, en suivant le concept de la virulence, devrait augmenter la charge parasitaire et diminuer la condition physique des hôtes, ne montre pourtant pas d'impact négatif sur les populations de mésanges. Nous pouvons maintenant concentrer nos efforts à la caractérisation des interactions antagonistes. De plus, grâce aux avancées des méthodes moléculaires, nous pouvons suivre et étudier en détails comment ces interactions se manifestent et quels sont leurs effets sur la condition physique des hôtes. - Parasites are key in shaping various behavioural and life-history traits of their hosts. The influence of parasitism on host populations varies from slight to devastating and might influence such parameters as mortality rates or reproductive success. Host-parasite coevolution is one of the most powerful selective forces in evolution and can lead to local adaptation of parasites and hosts in spatially structured environments. In this thesis, I studied haemosporidian parasites in different populations of great tits (Parus major) and house martins (Delichon urbicum). Firstly, I wanted to determine how parasites are distributed and if parasite communities are structured. The main question I wanted to address hereafter was how parasites, and specifically infection with multiple genera of parasites (i.e. co-infection) influenced host physiology and reproductive success. I found that parasite distribution is environmentally driven and could therefore be closely linked to vector prevalence; and that the stability of parasite infection over time is genus-dependent (Chapter 1 - 2). I further found that different haemosporidian lineages might interact differently with their hosts as parasitaemia was strongly lineage-specific and that the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites showed no correlation to Plasmodium or Haemoproteus parasitaemia, nor to great tit reproductive success (Chapter 2-3). In Chapter 4 I examined immune capacity of haemosporidian-infected great tits. The results proved inconclusive, and I strongly suggest re-evaluation hereof in future work. Great tits do not appear to signal parasite infection through plumage colouration (Chapter 5); however, infection did have a link to oxidative stress resistance which is strongly signalled through the black breast stripe, with darker males being more resistant and darker females less resistant. Females might incur different costs associated with darker stripes. This would allow reversal of signaling function. Green colouration could also serve as a cue for female provisioning quality as indicated by the strong correlation between colouration and chick body mass. Breeding house martins caught in Algeria suffer greater haemosporidian infection than European populations (Chapter 6). Similar parasite communities in European and North-African populations suggest transmission of parasites may occur during southward migration. Similarly to what was observed in great tits in Chapter 2 and 3, no relationship was found between parasite co-infection and Swiss house martin body condition. This thesis demonstrates that host-parasite and inter-parasite antagonistic interac¬tions exist in great tit populations. How these interactions play out is species dependent and varies geographically. I have demonstrated that interactions do not always follow the theory, as co-infection - which under the concept of virulence should increase parasitaemia and decrease body condition - showed no negative impact on great tit populations. We can now concentrate our efforts on characterising these antagonistic interactions, and with the advance in molecular methods, track and investigate how these interactions play out and what the effect on host fitness is.

Preliminary description and slope stability analyses of the 2008 Little Salmon lake and 2007 Mt. Steele landslides, Yukon

In August 2008, reactivation of the Little Salmon Lake landslide occurred. During this event, hundreds of conical mounds of variable size and composition formed in the deposition zone. The characteristics of these landforms are described and a potential mechanism for their formation is proposed. A preliminary slope stability analysis of the 2007 Mount Steele rock and ice avalanche was also undertaken. The orientation of very high persistence (>20 m long) structural planes (e.g., faults, joints and bedding) within bedrock in the source zone was obtained using an airborne-LiDAR digital elevation model and the software COLTOP-3D. Using these discontinuity orientation measurements, kinematic, surface wedge and simple three-dimensional distinct element slope stability analyses were performed.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Tolerance traits and the stability of mutualism

Identifying factors which allow the evolution and persistence of cooperative interactions between species is a fundamental issue in evolutionary ecology. Various hypotheses have been suggested which generally focus on mechanisms that allow cooperative genotypes in different species to maintain interactions over space and time. Here, we emphasise the fact that even within mutualisms (interactions with net positive fitness effects for both partners), there may still be inherent costs, such as the occasional predation by ants upon aphids. Individuals engaged in mutualisms benefit from minimising these costs as long as it is not at the expense of breaking the interspecific interaction, which offers a net positive benefit. The most common and obvious defence traits to minimise interspecific interaction costs are resistance traits, which act to reduce encounter rate between two organisms. Tolerance traits, in contrast, minimise fitness costs to the actor, but without reducing encounter rate. Given that, by definition, it is beneficial to remain in mutualistic interactions, the only viable traits to minimise costs are tolerance-based 'defence' strategies. Thus, we propose that tolerance traits are an important factor promoting stability in mutualisms. Furthermore, because resistance traits tend to propagate coevolutionary arms races between antagonists, whilst tolerance traits do not, we also suggest that tolerance-based defence strategies may be important in facilitating the transition from antagonistic interactions into mutualisms. For example, the mutualism between ants and aphids has been suggested to have evolved from parasitism. We describe how phenotypic plasticity in honeydew production may be a tolerance trait that has prevented escalation into an antagonistic arms race and instead led to mutualistic coevolution.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

Political instability and the persistence of religion in Greece: the policy implications of the cultural defence paradigm

This paper examines the implications of ‘cultural defence’ in the nature of democracy and the stability of the political system in Greece. It focuses on the Greek Orthodox Church’s maintenance of power and political relevance by virtue of its strong link to national identity. We argue that the inhibition of secularization in Greece as a result of cultural defence has significant policy implications, especially in times of crises, when the role of nationalism as a cohesive factor against perceived threats is intensified. The paper further explores three policy/politics areas: (1) political orientation; (2) religious pluralism; and (3) education.