Characterization and Mapping of Patterned Ground in the Saginaw Lowlands, Michigan: Possible Evidence for Late-Wisconsin Permafrost

We identified, mapped, and characterized a widespread area (gt;1,020 km2) of patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands of Michigan, a wet, flat plain composed of waterlain tills, lacustrine deposits, or both. The polygonal patterned ground is interpreted as a possible relict permafrost feature, formed in the Late Wisconsin when this area was proximal to the Laurentide ice sheet. Cold-air drainage off the ice sheet might have pooled in the Saginaw Lowlands, which sloped toward the ice margin, possibly creating widespread but short-lived permafrost on this glacial lake plain. The majority of the polygons occur between the Glacial Lake Warren strandline (~14.8 cal. ka) and the shoreline of Glacial Lake Elkton (~14.3 cal. ka), providing a relative age bracket for the patterned ground. Most of the polygons formed in dense, wet, silt loam soils on flat-lying sites and take the form of reticulate nets with polygon long axes of 150 to 160 m and short axes of 60 to 90 m. Interpolygon swales, often shown as dark curvilinears on aerial photographs, are typically slightly lower than are the polygon centers they bound. Some portions of these interpolygon swales are infilled with gravel-free, sandy loam sediments. The subtle morphology and sedimentological characteristics of the patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands suggest that thermokarst erosion, rather than ice-wedge replacement, was the dominant geomorphic process associated with the degradation of the Late-Wisconsin permafrost in the study area and, therefore, was primarily responsible for the soil patterns seen there today.

Permafrost response to last interglacial warming: field evidence from non-glaciated Yukon and Alaska

We present stratigraphic observations from three sites in eastern Beringia - Ch'ijee's Bluff in northern Yukon and nearby exposures on the Old Crow River, the Palisades on the Yukon River in Alaska, and placer mining exposures at Thistle Creek in west-central Yukon - which provide insight into the response of permafrost to regional warming during the last interglaciation. Chronology is based on the presence of Old Crow tephra, an important regional stratigraphic marker that dates to late Marine Isotope Stage 6, supplemented by paleoecology and non-finite C ages on wood-rich organic silts. Old Crow tephra overlies several relict ice wedges at the Palisades and Thistle Creek, indicating that permafrost at these sites did not thaw completely during the last interglaciation. Prominent deposits of last interglacial wood-rich organic silt are present at multiple sites in eastern Beringia, and probably represent accumulations of reworked forest vegetation due to thaw slumping or deposition into thermokarst ponds or depressions. Consistent stratigraphic relations between these deposits, Old Crow tephra, and ice wedge pseudomorphs at our three study sites, and at least six other sites in eastern Beringia, suggest that thaw of shallow permafrost was widespread during the last interglaciation. Limited stratigraphic evidence suggests that thaw was probably on the order of meters, rather than 10s of meters. The ubiquity of shallow permafrost degradation during the last interglaciation suggests that current ground warming may foreshadow widespread near-surface thaw under even modest future warming scenarios. However, the persistence of relict pre-last interglacial ice wedges highlights the potential for the regional antiquity of discontinuous permafrost, and provides compelling field evidence for the long-term resilience of deep permafrost during sustained periods of warmer-than-present climate.

Evaluating the use of testate amoebae for palaeohydrological reconstruction in permafrost peatlands

The melting of high-latitude permafrost peatlands is a major concern due to a potential positive feedback on global climate change. We examine the ecology of testate amoebae in permafrost peatlands, based on sites in Sweden (~ 200 km north of the Arctic Circle). Multivariate statistical analysis confirms that water-table depth and moisture content are the dominant controls on the distribution of testate amoebae, corroborating the results from studies in mid-latitude peatlands. We present a new testate amoeba-based water table transfer function and thoroughly test it for the effects of spatial autocorrelation, clustered sampling design and uneven sampling gradients. We find that the transfer function has good predictive power; the best-performing model is based on tolerance-downweighted weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (performance statistics with leave-one-out cross validation: R2 = 0.87, RMSEP = 5.25 cm). The new transfer function was applied to a short core from Stordalen mire, and reveals a major shift in peatland ecohydrology coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age (c. AD 1400). We also applied the model to an independent contemporary dataset from Stordalen and find that it outperforms predictions based on other published transfer functions. The new transfer function will enable palaeohydrological reconstruction from permafrost peatlands in Northern Europe, thereby permitting greatly improved understanding of the long-term ecohydrological dynamics of these important carbon stores as well as their responses to recent climate change.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios