Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.

Perceived environmental uncertainty in scenario planning

Scenarioplanning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenarioplanning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenarioplanning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmentaluncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenarioplanning researchers, which suggests that PerceivedEnvironmentalUncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenarioplanning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenarioplanning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenarioplanning process in order to improve the development of strategy.

Perceived environmental correlates and physical activity: What neighborhood aspects really matter for mothers and fathers of young children?

Limited research has been conducted with at-risk populations in examining perceived environmental correlates of physical activity (PA); thus, we examined this relationship among parents with young children, a group at risk for physical inactivity. Parents (252 mothers, 206 fathers) completed a questionnaire assessing measures of perceived neighborhood environment and a 1-week follow-up of PA behavior. Mothers were more likely than fathers to perceive their neighborhood as unsafe to go for walks at night and less likely to perceive transit stops within 10–15 minutes walking distance, sidewalks on most streets, and facilities to bicycle. Adjusting for demographics, shops within easy walking distance, sidewalks on most streets, and having no more than one motor vehicle were associated with being active for both sexes. Access to transit stops and free/low cost recreational facilities were also associated with mothers’ PA. These findings suggest that environmental factors may support parents being active at recommended levels.

An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams

This research has responded to the need for diagnostic reference tools explicitly linking the influence of environmental uncertainty and performance within the supply chain. Uncertainty is a key factor influencing performance and an important measure of the operating environment. We develop and demonstrate a novel reference methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) for examining the performance of value streams within the supply chain with specific reference to the level of environmental uncertainty they face. In this paper, using real industrial data, 20 product supply value streams within the European automotive industry sector are evaluated. Two are found to be efficient. The peer reference groups for the underperforming value streams are identified and numerical improvement targets are derived. The paper demonstrates how DEA can be used to guide supply chain improvement efforts through role-model identification and target setting, in a way that recognises the multiple dimensions/outcomes of the supply chain process and the influence of its environmental conditions. We have facilitated the contextualisation of environmental uncertainty and its incorporation into a specific diagnostic reference tool.

Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and company are associated with walking for exercise among Australian adults

Background: This study aimed to investigate relationships between environmental aesthetics, convenience, and walking companions and walking for exercise or recreation and to investigate differences in these relationships by sex and by reported physical and mental health.

Methods: Analyses of cross-sectional self-report data from a statewide population survey of 3,392 Australian adults were used.

Results: Men and women reporting a less aesthetically pleasing or less convenient environment were less likely to report walking for exercise or recreation in the past 2 weeks. Those respondents, particularly women, reporting no company or pet to walk with were also less likely to walk for exercise or recreation. Associations with environmental and social influences were observed for men and women reporting both good and poor physical and mental health.

Conclusions: Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and walking companions are important correlates of walking for exercise among urban Australians. Acknowledging the cross-sectional nature of these data, findings support a case for evaluation of environmental policies to promote physical activity.

Linking environmental uncertainty to non-financial performance measures and performance : a research note

Several previous research studies have reported mixed results concerning the direct association between non-financial performance measures and  performance. The presence of environmental uncertainty on this relationship has not been established. This paper makes a contribution to this area by proposing that it is in conditions of environmental uncertainty that non-financial measures are most useful in improving organizational performance. It analyses empirical data from a sample of New Zealand manufacturing organizations to test the hypothesis that non-financial measures of performance would lead to improved organizational performance under conditions of increased environmental uncertainty. Multiple regression analysis of the data suggests that performance should be a declining function of the size of the ‘mismatch’ between an organization's environment and use of the different combinations of non-financial performance measures. Further, the paper concludes that prior mixed results may be attributed to the omission of environmental uncertainty.

Associations of location and perceived environmental attrubutes with walking in neighborhoods

Purpose. Ecological models highlight the importance of environmental influences. We examined associations of coastal versus noncoastal location and perceived environmental attributes with neighborhood walking, total walking, and total activity.

Methods. Telephone interviews with 800 faculty and general staff of an Australian university.

Results. Men were significantly more likely to walk in their neighborhood if they lived in a coastal location (odds ratio [OR] = 1.66), and they highly rated environmental "aesthetics" (OR = 1.91), "convenience" of facilities (OR = 2.20), and "access" to facilities (OR = 1.98). For women, neighborhood walking was associated with high ratings of "convenience" (OR = 3. 78) but was significantly less likely if they had high ratings for "access" (OR = 0.48). For total walking and total physical activity, few significant associations emerged.

Conclusions. Environmental attributes were related to walking in the neighborhood but not to more general activity indices. Understanding gender-specific environmental correlates of physical activity should be a priority. Key Words: Walking; Physical Activity; Environment; Perceptions; Prevention.

The effects of perceived business uncertainty, external consultants and risk management on organisational outcomes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between perceived business uncertainty (PBU), use of external risk management (RM) consultants, formalisation of RM, magnitude of RM methods and perceived organisational outcomes.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a questionnaire survey of members of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in the UK. Using AMOS 17.0, the paper tests the strength of the direct and indirect effects among the variables and explores the fit of the overall path model.
Findings – The results indicate significant and positive associations exist between the extent of PBU and the level ofRMformalisation, as well as between the level ofRMformalisation and the magnitude of RMmethods adopted. The use of externalRMconsultants is also found to have a significant and positive impact on the magnitude of RM methods adopted. Finally, both the extent of RM formalisation and the magnitude of RM methods adopted are seen to be significantly associated with overall improvement in organisational outcomes.
Research limitations/implications – The study uses perceptual measures of the level of business uncertainty, usage of RM and organisational outcomes. Further, the respondents are members of a management accounting professional body and the views of other managers, such as risk managers, who are also important to the governance process are not incorporated.
Originality/value – This study provides empirical evidence on the impact ofRMdesign and usage on improvements in organisational outcomes. It contributes to the RM literature where empirical research is needed in order to be comparable with the traditional management control system literature.