Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Non-normally distributed data and non-parametric statistics

Different types of numerical data can be collected in a scientific investigation and the choice of statistical analysis will often depend on the distribution of the data. A basic distinction between variables is whether they are ‘parametric’ or ‘non-parametric’. When a variable is parametric, the data come from a symmetrically shaped distribution known as the ‘Gaussian’ or ‘normal distribution’ whereas non-parametric variables may have a distribution which deviates markedly in shape from normal. This article describes several aspects of the problem of non-normality including: (1) how to test for two common types of deviation from a normal distribution, viz., ‘skew’ and ‘kurtosis’, (2) how to fit the normal distribution to a sample of data, (3) the transformation of non-normally distributed data and scores, and (4) commonly used ‘non-parametric’ statistics which can be used in a variety of circumstances.

The statistics of refractive error maps : managing wavefront aberration analysis without Zernike polynomials

The refractive error of a human eye varies across the pupil and therefore may be treated as a random variable. The probability distribution of this random variable provides a means for assessing the main refractive properties of the eye without the necessity of traditional functional representation of wavefront aberrations. To demonstrate this approach, the statistical properties of refractive error maps are investigated. Closed-form expressions are derived for the probability density function (PDF) and its statistical moments for the general case of rotationally-symmetric aberrations. A closed-form expression for a PDF for a general non-rotationally symmetric wavefront aberration is difficult to derive. However, for specific cases, such as astigmatism, a closed-form expression of the PDF can be obtained. Further, interpretation of the distribution of the refractive error map as well as its moments is provided for a range of wavefront aberrations measured in real eyes. These are evaluated using a kernel density and sample moments estimators. It is concluded that the refractive error domain allows non-functional analysis of wavefront aberrations based on simple statistics in the form of its sample moments. Clinicians may find this approach to wavefront analysis easier to interpret due to the clinical familiarity and intuitive appeal of refractive error maps.

Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

Background: Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or “part task” (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods: Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants’ pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants’ knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson’s r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results: An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge scores reflected the participant populations’ high baseline knowledge and pre-requisite completion of web-based modules. Satisfaction, relevance and fidelity of all course elements were rated highly. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests simulation training programs can improve participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. The approach has the potential to enhance clinical training in diabetes-related foot complications and chronic wounds in general.

Life History, Diet, Abundance and Distribution, and Length-Frequencies of Selected Invertebrates in Florida Bay, Everglades National Park, Florida

This report presents information on the life history, diet, abundance and distribution, and length-frequency distributions of five invertebrates in Florida Bay, Everglades National Park. Collections were made with an otter trawl in basins on a bi-monthly basis. Non-parametric statistics were used to test spatial and temporal differences in the abundance of invertebrates when numbers were appropriate (i. e., $25). Invertebrate species are presented in four sections. The sections on Life History, and Diet were derived from the literature. The section on Abundance and Distribution consists of data from otter-trawl collections. In addition, comparisons with other studies are included here following our results. The section on Length-frequency Distributions consists of length measurements from all collections, except 1984-1985 when no measurements were taken. Length-frequency distributions were used, when possible, to estimate life stage captured, spawning times, recruitment into Florida Bay for those species which spawn outside the Bay, and growth. Additional material from the literature was added when appropriate. (PDF contains 39 pages)

Habilidades sociais, bem-estar psicológico e rendimento escolar

O propósito do presente estudo foi o de examinar o impacto da implementação de um programa de desenvolvimento de habilidades sociais no bem-estar psicológico (BEP) e no rendimento escolar numa amostra de estudantes adolescentes portugueses. Para aferir o BEP, foi utilizada a versão portuguesa de 30 itens para adolescentes das escalas de Ryff; o rendimento escolar foi aferido com recurso às avaliações finais de cada período letivo. O programa utilizado baseou-se no desenvolvimento das habilidades sociais de comunicação, assertividade e resolução de problemas, durante o ano letivo numa frequência semanal de 45 minutos nas aulas de Formação Cívica, em estudantes do 7º e 8º anos de escolaridade. Os dados longitudinais foram analisados através da estatística não paramétrica, recorrendo aos testes Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney correlação de Spearman do programa SPSS®, versão 20.0. Os resultados mostram impacto do programa de desenvolvimento de habilidades sociais nas dimensões do BEP – autoaceitação, relações positivas com os outros, domínio do meio, crescimento pessoal, objetivos na vida e no BEP global em um ou mais momentos do pós teste. Os resultados demonstram igualmente correlações positivas entre as dimensões do BEP – autonomia, autoaceitação, domínio do meio, objetivos na vida e do BEP global e o rendimento escolar, em três ou mais momentos observados.

Infiltración grasa hepática difusa y su correlación con índice de masa corporal, triglicéridos y transaminasas

Introducción: la enfermedad hepática grasa no alcohólica (NAFLD) es una enfermedad muy frecuente y de curso insidioso. El diagnostico, seguimiento y tratamiento de esta condición permanecen aun sin consenso debido principalmente a la falta de conocimiento de su historia natural y la dificultad de un diagnostico preciso de forma no invasiva. Materiales y Métodos: estudio prospectivo, observacional de corte transversal y correlación usando un muestreo no aleatorio de los pacientes que asistieron al servicio de chequeo médico de la Fundación CardioInfantil – Instituto de Cardiología. Se evaluaron variables clínicas y para-clínicas como Índice de Masa Corporal, transaminasas, triglicéridos y apariencia ultrasonográfica del hígado. Se realizo análisis no paramétrico de varianza con la prueba de Kruskal-Wallis y análisis de correlación por medio del índice de correlación de Spearman. Resultados: se incluyeron 619 pacientes. Se encontró una variación estadísticamente significativa (p<0,001) entre todas las variables analizadas agrupadas de acuerdo a la apariencia ultrasonográfica del hígado. Finalmente, se encontraron coeficientes de correlación positivos y estadísticamente significativos (p<0,001) para las mismas variables. Discusión: la evaluación por ultrasonografía del hígado es una opción atractiva para el diagnostico y seguimiento de los pacientes con NAFLD debido a sus características no invasivas, bajo costo y amplia disponibilidad. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que dada la variación de los parámetros clínicos de acuerdo con la apariencia hepática, esta herramienta puede ser útil tanto en fase de diagnostico como en fase de seguimiento para los pacientes de esta población. Los coeficientes de correlación sugieren que la posibilidad de predecir variables sanguíneas usando este método que debería estudiarse más a fondo. Conclusiones: en conjunto, los resultados de este estudio soportan la utilidad de la evaluación ultrasonográfica del hígado como herramienta de evaluación y posible seguimiento en pacientes con sospecha de NAFLD en esta población.

A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).

Clinical research 5: quantitative data collection and analysis

This six-part research series is aimed at clinicians who wish to develop research skills, or who have a particular clinical problem that they think could be addressed through research. The series aims to provide insight into the decisions that researchers make in the course of their work, and to also provide a foundation for decisions that nurses may make in applying the findings of a study to practice in their own Unit or Department. The series emphasises the practical issues encountered when undertaking research in critical care settings; readers are encouraged to source research methodology textbooks for more detailed guidance on specific aspects of the research process.

A couple of points:

1. It is artificial to describe research as qualitative or quantitative. Studies often include both dimensions. However, for the purposes of this paper/series, this distinction is drawn for clarity of writing.

2. It is common practice for quantitative studies to refer to study ‘subjects’ and qualitative studies to refer to study ‘participants’. For ease of reading, the latter term will be used throughout this series.

Pilot Study of clinician attitudes to insulin pump therapy: international differences and the need for a greater understanding of the patient perspective

OBJECTIVES: To identify and survey health care professionals (HCPs) attitudes to insulin pump therapy (CSII).

METHODS: Eight specialists were interviewed to explore the attitudes and beliefs about CSII. Responses were analysed thematically and used to inform the design of a new 22-item questionnaire: the Attitudes to Pump Therapy (APT) Survey. The APT was pilottested among 95 HCPs (54% male; 75.5% diabetologists/DSNs, 13.8% general practitioners) at the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) conference, 2006. Results were analysed using non-parametric statistics with bonferroni correction.

RESULTS: Analyses of interview data identified 9 themes: biomedical, perceived control of care/diabetes, technology, quality of life, financial resources, training, education & support, suitability, and evidence-base. Items were designed to reflect these themes with responses scored on a 5-point Likert scale (strongly agree—strongly disagree). No statistically significant differences
were found by gender, HCP speciality, country (and continent) of origin or proportion of patients using CSII. Most notable differences were found in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) and the potential for pump therapy to achieve tight blood glucose control (lower GDP = more agreement: p = 0.001), and result in diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) (lower GDP = less agreement: p < 0.005). Ranked mean scores showed a split between biomedical/clinical items (N = 11) and items concerned with patient experience (N = 11). Attitudes about biomedical/clinical issues were generally clear (i.e. for 7/11 items, the mean score was “agree”) but less decisive about patient experience (i.e. for 8/11 items, the mean score was “neither agree nor disagree”).

CONCLUSION: Few subgroup differences existed, but those that did may be explained by lack of access to treatment (directly corresponding to GDP). Clinicians’ were generally clear in their attitudes regarding biomedical aspects but less so regarding patient experience. Research focusing on patient-reported outcomes is likely to offer clinicians a greater understanding of the patients’ perspective of insulin pump therapy.

Hydrologic landscape regionalisation using deductive classification and random forests

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents.

How do postgraduate qualifications in medical education impact on health professionals?

Background and Purpose: The number of degree-awarding programmes in medical education is steadily increasing. Despite the popularity and extensive investment in these courses, there is little research into their impact. This study investigated the perceived impact of an internationally-renowned postgraduate programme in medical education on health professionals’ development as educators.

Methods: An online survey of the 2008–12 graduates from the Centre for Medical Education, University of Dundee was carried out. Their self-reported shifts in various educational competencies and scholarship activities were analysed using non-parametric statistics. Qualitative data were also collected and analysed to add depth to the quantitative findings.

Results: Of the 504 graduates who received the online questionnaire 224 responded. Participants reported that a qualification in medical education had significantly (p < 0.001) improved their professional educational practices and engagement in scholarly activities. Masters graduates reported greater impact compared to Certificate graduates on all items, including ability to facilitate curriculum reforms, and in assessment and feedback practices. Masters graduates also reported more engagement in scholarship activities, with significantly greater contributions to journals. These qualifications equally benefited all participants regardless of age. International graduates reported greater impact of the qualification than their UK counterparts.

Conclusion: A postgraduate medical education programme can significantly impact on the practices and behaviours of health professionals in education, improving self-efficacy and instilling an increased sense of belonging to the educational community.

Contribuições para a análise de sinais neuronais e biomédicos

Following the new tendency of interdisciplinarity of modern science, a new field called neuroengineering has come to light in the last decades. After 2000, scientific journals and conferences all around the world have been created on this theme. The present work comprises three different subareas related to neuroengineering and electrical engineering: neural stimulation; theoretical and computational neuroscience; and neuronal signal processing; as well as biomedical engineering. The research can be divided in three parts: (i) A new method of neuronal photostimulation was developed based on the use of caged compounds. Using the inhibitory neurotransmitter GABA caged by a ruthenium complex it was possible to block neuronal population activity using a laser pulse. The obtained results were evaluated by Wavelet analysis and tested by non-parametric statistics. (ii) A mathematical method was created to identify neuronal assemblies. Neuronal assemblies were proposed as the basis of learning by Donald Hebb remain the most accepted theory for neuronal representation of external stimuli. Using the Marcenko-Pastur law of eigenvalue distribution it was possible to detect neuronal assemblies and to compute their activity with high temporal resolution. The application of the method in real electrophysiological data revealed that neurons from the neocortex and hippocampus can be part of the same assembly, and that neurons can participate in multiple assemblies. (iii) A new method of automatic classification of heart beats was developed, which does not rely on a data base for training and is not specialized in specific pathologies. The method is based on Wavelet decomposition and normality measures of random variables. Throughout, the results presented in the three fields of knowledge represent qualification in neural and biomedical engineering

Estimativa populacional e uso do hábitat do boto-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte

Four areas are known as of frequent usage by Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte state, northeast Brazil: Tabatinga, Pipa, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Baia Formosa. This extension of 40 km of shoreline is under increasing anthropogenic impacts due to continuous development of the coastal areas and vessel traffic. The objective of this study was to investigate aspects of population biology and habitat use of the population of Sotalia guianensis in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte. It was applied the photo-identification technique and posterior methods of capture-recapture for population estimation (POPAN extension in MARK). The distribution, movement and site fidelity of the dolphins were analyzed trough the geographic information system (GIS) and group characteristics and behavior trough non-parametric statistics. Field work was conducted on board a 10m motor vessel from March 2008 to March 2009. Photo-identification effort was 329h with 113h of direct observation of the dolphins. The population estimatives for each area: Tabatinga: 75 (63-92); Pipa 105 (88-129); Lagoa de Guaraíras: 27 (18-54) e Baia Formosa: 112 (89-129) individuals. Total population estimative was: 223 (192 a 297). High site fidelity was detected for only part of the population (<15%) as low site fidelity and transients individuals were also detected (>20%). It was observed frequent movements between Tabatinga, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Pipa, but not Baía Formosa. This suggests a division in two communities along this shore extension: one in Pipa and other in Baía Formosa. Group size was small, most groups with up to 10 dolphins. The areas were use intensively, only in Lagoa de Guaraíras dolphins were not seen in all field trips. Lagoa de Guaraíras is an area used by small groups exclusively for foraging. In Tabatinga and Pipa dolphins concentrated close to the shore, in the inner sector of the area and the main activity is also foraging. Significant larger groups were seen in socializing behavior but there was no difference in group size between the inner and external sectors of the area. The presence of calves and juveniles were significant greater in the inner areas of Tabatinga and Pipa, confirming the hypothesis that these beaches are also used for parental care. In Baia Formosa dolphins concentrated in the outer sector and foraging was also predominant. Significant larger groups were seen in the outer sector, mainly engaged in mixed behaviors of travel/foraging, possibly in some kind of group foraging. Calves and juveniles were significant more present in the outer sector where group size was also larger. In general there was no difference in area usage and period of the day. Sotalia guianensis has characteristics that make the species vulnerable to human activities such as small population concentrated in patches of suitable habitats restrict to coastal areas. We hope that this study bring new information for the species and help for the adequate management of the area in order to assure the presence of the dolphins as well as its behavior pattern and gene flow betweencommunities.