Development and parameterization of a rain- and fire-driven model for exploring elephant effects in African savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Graphical method to determine the parameters of the two-parameter fracture model for concrete

To evaluate the parameters in the two-parameter fracture model, i.e. the critical stress intensity factor and critical crack tip opening displacement for the fracture of plain concrete in Mode 1 for the given test configuration and geometry, considerable computational effort is necessary. A simple graphical method has been proposed using normalized fracture parameters for the three-point bend (3PB) notched specimen and the double-edged notched (DEN) specimen. A similar graphical method is proposed to compute the maximum load carrying capacity of a specimen, using the critical fracture parameters both for 3PB and DEN configurations.

Study of the electric loading aspects of the BDFM using a lumped parameter thermal model

Details of a lumped parameter thermal model for studying thermal aspects of the frame size 180 nested loop rotor BDFM at the University of Cambridge are presented. Predictions of the model are verified against measured end winding and rotor bar temperatures that were measured with the machine excited from a DC source. The model is used to assess the thermal coupling between the stator windings and rotor heating. The thermal coupling between the stator windings is assessed by studying the difference of the steady state temperatures of the two stator end windings for different excitations. The rotor heating is assessed by studying the temperatures of regions of interest for different excitations.

Towards Automated Data-Driven Model Creation for Cloud Computing Simulation

The increasing complexity and scale of cloud computing environments due to widespread data centre heterogeneity makes measurement-based evaluations highly difficult to achieve. Therefore the use of simulation tools to support decision making in cloud computing environments to cope with this problem is an increasing trend. However the data required in order to model cloud computing environments with an appropriate degree of accuracy is typically large, very difficult to collect without some form of automation, often not available in a suitable format and a time consuming process if done manually. In this research, an automated method for cloud computing topology definition, data collection and model creation activities is presented, within the context of a suite of tools that have been developed and integrated to support these activities.

Operator's, organizational, and direct support maintenance manual : tank and pump unit, liquid dispensing, for truck mounting, mil design tank and pump units : gasoline engine driven model (97403) 13217E7100, NSN 4930-00-426-9960 : electric motor driven model (97403) 13217E7130, NSN 4930-01-130-7281.

"17 July 1984."

Organizational, direct support, and general support maintenance repair parts and special tools lists ... for refrigeration unit, mechanical, panel type, 10,000 Btu/hr, electric motor driven, model-REMD-K/II-10LS, NSN 4110-01-163-2140.

"3 March 1987."

Operator's, organizational, and direct support maintenance manual : tank and pump unit, liquid dispensing, for truck mounting, mil design tank and pump units : gasoline engine driven model (977403) 13217E7100, NSN 4930-00-426-9960 : electric motor driven model (97403) 13217E7130, NSN 4930-01-130-7281.

Includes index.

Hand receipt covering contents of Components of End Item (COEI), Basic Issue Items (BII), and Additional Authorization List (AAL) for tank and pump unit, liquid dispensing; for truck mounting mil design tank and pump units, gasoline engine driven, model (97403) 13217E7100, NSN 4930-00-426-9960, electric motor driven, model (97403) 13217E7130, NSN 4930-01-130-7281.

"7 October 1988."

Towards a model of spray-canopy interactions : interception, shatter, bounce and retention of droplets on horizontal leaves

Pesticides used in agricultural systems must be applied in economically viable and environmentally sensitive ways, and this often requires expensive field trials on spray deposition and retention by plant foliage. Computational models to describe whether a spray droplet sticks (adheres), bounces or shatters on impact, and if any rebounding parent or shatter daughter droplets are recaptured, would provide an estimate of spray retention and thereby act as a useful guide prior to any field trials. Parameter-driven interactive software has been implemented to enable the end-user to study and visualise droplet interception and impaction on a single, horizontal leaf. Living chenopodium, wheat and cotton leaves have been scanned to capture the surface topography and realistic virtual leaf surface models have been generated. Individual leaf models have then been subjected to virtual spray droplets and predictions made of droplet interception with the virtual plant leaf. Thereafter, the impaction behaviour of the droplets and the subsequent behaviour of any daughter droplets, up until re-capture, are simulated to give the predicted total spray retention by the leaf. A series of critical thresholds for the stick, bounce, and shatter elements in the impaction process have been developed for different combinations of formulation, droplet size and velocity, and leaf surface characteristics to provide this output. The results show that droplet properties, spray formulations and leaf surface characteristics all influence the predicted amount of spray retained on a horizontal leaf surface. Overall the predicted spray retention increases as formulation surface tension, static contact angle, droplet size and velocity decreases. Predicted retention on cotton is much higher than on chenopodium. The average predicted retention on a single horizontal leaf across all droplet size, velocity and formulations scenarios tested, is 18, 30 and 85% for chenopodium, wheat and cotton, respectively.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Cluster model of the glass transition

A cluster model of the glass transition has been developed, treating the relative size of the cluster as an order parameter. The model accounts for some of the features of the glass transition.

Learning Object-Independent Modes of Variation with Feature Flow Fields

We present a unifying framework in which "object-independent" modes of variation are learned from continuous-time data such as video sequences. These modes of variation can be used as "generators" to produce a manifold of images of a new object from a single example of that object. We develop the framework in the context of a well-known example: analyzing the modes of spatial deformations of a scene under camera movement. Our method learns a close approximation to the standard affine deformations that are expected from the geometry of the situation, and does so in a completely unsupervised (i.e. ignorant of the geometry of the situation) fashion. We stress that it is learning a "parameterization", not just the parameter values, of the data. We then demonstrate how we have used the same framework to derive a novel data-driven model of joint color change in images due to common lighting variations. The model is superior to previous models of color change in describing non-linear color changes due to lighting.