Earnings management and economic crises in the brazilian capital market

The 2008 economic crisis challenged accounting, either demanding recognition and measurement criteria well adjusted to this scenario or even questioning its ability to inform appropriately entities' financial situation before the crisis occurred. So, our purpose was to verify if during economic crises listed companies in the Brazilian capital market tended to adopt earnings management (EM) practices. Our sample consisted in 3,772 firm-years observations, in 13 years - 1997 to 2009. We developed regression models considering discretionary accruals as EM proxy (dependent variable), crisis as a macroeconomic factor (dummy variable of interest), ROA, market-to-book, size, leverage, foreign direct investment (FDI) and sector as control variables. Different for previous EM studies two approaches were used in data panel regression models and multiple crises were observed simultaneously. Statistics tests revealed a significant relation between economic crisis and EM practices concerning listed companies in Brazil in both approaches used.

The effects of OF ETF creation on the price efficiency of underlying stocks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Korkofutuurien markkinatehokkuus

Paneeliregressioita käyttäen tutkittiin 3 kuukauden Euribor-futuurin markkinatehokkuutta ja sitä, esiintyykö normal backwardation-efektiä. Tulokset olivat ristiriitaisia.

Tavoitevarastoarvojen määrittäminen uusille tuotteille - case: päivittäistavarakaupan yritys

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena oli löytää keinoja uusien tuotteiden tavoitevarastoarvojen määrittämisen helpottamiseksi case-yrityksessä. Ongelma on seurausta siitä, ettei uusille tuotteille ole saatavissa kysyntädataa. Oikeelliset tavoitevarastoarvot on tärkeitä case-yritykselle hävikin minimoimisen ja erityisesti asiakastyytyväisyyden vuoksi. Tutkittavaa aihetta lähestyttiin päivittäistavarakaupan strategisten menestystekijöiden sekä varastonhallinnan kautta. Teoriaosuuden pohjalta toteutettiin empiirinen osio, jossa etsittiin case-yrityksen kahden tuoteryhmän kysyntää selittäviä tekijöitä paneeliregression avulla. Ensin kuitenkin tutkittiin tuoteryhmien yleistä kysynnän rakennetta erilaisten kysyntäkuvaajien sekä korrelaatiomatriisien avulla. Tavoitevarastoarvoon eniten vaikuttava tekijä on kysyntä. Brändi ja hinta muodostuivat puolestaan vahvimmiksi kysyntää määrittäviksi muuttujiksi. Kysyntää arvioitaessa muut sitä nostavat muuttujat tulee aina miettiä tapauskohtaisesti. Mehukeitoilla kysyntää nostivat eniten vahva brändi ja suuri pakkauskoko. Juustoraasteilla puolestaan alhainen hinta ja pieni pakkauskoko olivat keskeisimmät myyntiin vaikuttavat tekijät. Tuoteryhmien muut kysyntää nostavat ominaisuudet olivat samoja, kuin tuoteryhmän suosituimmilla tuotteilla.

Determinants of capital expenditures: Evidence from oil and mining sectors in Russia

This master’s thesis investigates the significant macroeconomic and firm level determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors. It also studies the Russian oil and mining sectors, its development, characteristics and current situation. The panel data methodology was implemented to identify the determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors and to test derived hypotheses. The core sample consists of annual financial data of 45 publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. The timeframe of the thesis research is a six year period from 2007 to 2013. The findings of the master’s thesis have shown that Gross Sales, Return On Assets, Free Cash Flow and Long Term Debt are firm level performance variables along with Russian GDP, Export, Urals and the Reserve Fund are macroeconomic variables that determine the magnitude of new capital expenditures reported by publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. These results are not controversial to the previous research paper, indeed they confirm them. Furthermore, the findings from the emerging countries, such as Malaysia, India and Portugal, are analogous to Russia. The empirical research is edifying and novel. Findings from this master’s thesis are highly valuable for the scientific community, especially, for researchers who investigate the determinant of CAPEX in developing countries. Moreover, the results can be utilized as a cogent argument, when companies and investors are doing strategic decisions, considering the Russian oil and mining sectors.

Liquidity Risk in the Finnish Stock Market

This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.

Pricing of Liquidity Risks in London Stock Exchange

This thesis aims to investigate pricing of liquidity risks in London Stock Exchange. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model i.e. LCAPM developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) is being applied to test the influence of various liquidity risks on stock returns in London Stock Exchange. The Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing model provides a unified framework for the testing of liquidity risks. All the common stocks listed and delisted for the period of 2000 to 2014 are included in the data sample. The study has incorporated three different measures of liquidity – Percent Quoted Spread, Amihud (2002) and Turnover. The reason behind the application of three different liquidity measures is the multi-dimensional nature of liquidity. Firm fixed effects panel regression is applied for the estimation of LCAPM. However, the results are robust according to Fama-Macbeth regressions. The results of the study indicates that liquidity risks in the form of (i) level of liquidity, (ii) commonality in liquidity (iii) flight to liquidity, (iv) depressed wealth effect and market return as well as aggregate liquidity risk are priced at London Stock Exchange. However, the results are sensitive to the choice of liquidity measures.

Corporate Social Responsibility, Corporate Governance, And Managerial Risk-Taking

This dissertation investigates the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and managerial risk-taking, as well as the differences in governance structure that affect this association. Using a sample of US public firms from 1995 to 2009, we find that firms with strong CSR records engage in higher risk-taking. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is robust when accounting for differences in governance structure and correcting for endogeneity via simultaneous equations modeling. Additional testing indicates that performance in the employee relations dimension of CSR in particular increases with risk-taking, while high firm visibility dampens the association between CSR and the accounting-based measures of risk-taking. Prior literature establishes that high managerial risk-tolerance is necessary for the undertaking of risky yet value-enhancing investment decisions. Thus, the main findings suggest that CSR, rather than being a waste of scarce corporate resources, is instead an important aspect of shareholder value creation. They contribute to the debate on CSR by documenting that corporate risk-taking is one mechanism among others through which CSR maps into higher firm value.

The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms

This article assesses the extent to which sampling variation affects findings about Malmquist productivity change derived using data envelopment analysis (DEA), in the first stage by calculating productivity indices and in the second stage by investigating the farm-specific change in productivity. Confidence intervals for Malmquist indices are constructed using Simar and Wilson's (1999) bootstrapping procedure. The main contribution of this article is to account in the second stage for the information in the second stage provided by the first-stage bootstrap. The DEA SEs of the Malmquist indices given by bootstrapping are employed in an innovative heteroscedastic panel regression, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The application is to a sample of 250 Polish farms over the period 1996 to 2000. The confidence intervals' results suggest that the second half of 1990s for Polish farms was characterized not so much by productivity regress but rather by stagnation. As for the determinants of farm productivity change, we find that the integration of the DEA SEs in the second-stage regression is significant in explaining a proportion of the variance in the error term. Although our heteroscedastic regression results differ with those from the standard OLS, in terms of significance and sign, they are consistent with theory and previous research.

Will rising household incomes solve China's micronutrient deficiency problems?

Rapid economic growth in China has resulted in substantially improved household incomes. Diets have also changed, with a movement away from traditional foods and towards animal products and processed foods. Yet micronutrient deficiencies, particularly for calcium and vitamin A, are still widespread in China. In this research we model the determinants of the intakes of these micronutrients using household panel data, asking particularly whether continuing income increases are likely to cause the deficiencies to be overcome. Nonparametric kernel regressions and random effects panel regression models are employed. The results show a statistically significant but relatively small positive income effect on both nutrient intakes. The local availability of milk is seen to have a strong positive effect on intakes of both micronutrients. Thus, rather than relying on increasing incomes to overcome deficiencies, supplementary government policies, such as school milk programmes, may be warranted.

Performance drivers of UK unlisted property funds

An unlisted property fund is a private investment vehicle which aims to provide direct property total returns and may also employ financial leverage which will accentuate performance. They have become a far more prevalent institutional property investment conduit since the early 2000’s. Investors have been primarily attracted to them due to the ease of executing a property exposure, both domestically and internationally, and for their diversification benefits given the capital intensive nature of constructing a well diversified commercial property investment portfolio. However, despite their greater prominence there has been little academic research conducted on the performance and risks of unlisted property fund investments. This can be attributed to a paucity of available data and limited time series where it exists. In this study we have made use of a unique dataset of institutional UK unlisted non-listed property funds over the period 2003Q4 to 2011Q4, using a panel modelling framework in order to determine the key factors which impact on fund performance. The sample provided a rich set of unlisted property fund factors including market exposures, direct property characteristics and the level of financial leverage employed. The findings from the panel regression analysis show that a small number of variables are able to account for the performance of unlisted property funds. These variables should be considered by investors when assessing the risk and return of these vehicles. The impact of financial leverage upon the performance of these vehicles through the recent global financial crisis and subsequent UK commercial property market downturn was also studied. The findings indicate a significant asymmetric effect of employing debt finance within unlisted property funds.

Which factors drive rental depreciation rates for office and industrial properties?

As new buildings are constructed in response to changes in technology or user requirements, the value of the existing stock will decline in relative terms. This is termed economic depreciation and it may be influenced by the age and quality of buildings, amount and timing of expenditure, and wider market and economic conditions. This study tests why individual assets experience different depreciation rates, applying panel regression techniques to 375 UK office and industrial assets. Results suggest that rental value depreciation rates reduce as buildings get older, while a composite measure of age and quality provides more explanation of depreciation than age alone. Furthermore, economic and local real estate market conditions are significant in explaining how depreciation rates change over time.

The financial and environmental performance of firms exposed to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This thesis is an empirical-based study of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and its implications in terms of corporate environmental and financial performance. The novelty of this study includes the extended scope of the data coverage, as most previous studies have examined only the power sector. The use of verified emissions data of ETS-regulated firms as the environmental compliance measure and as the potential differentiating criteria that concern the valuation of EU ETS-exposed firms in the stock market is also an original aspect of this study. The study begins in Chapter 2 by introducing the background information on the emission trading system (ETS), which focuses on (i) the adoption of ETS as an environmental management instrument and (ii) the adoption of ETS by the European Union as one of its central climate policies. Chapter 3 surveys four databases that provide carbon emissions data in order to determine the most suitable source of the data to be used in the later empirical chapters. The first empirical chapter, which is also Chapter 4 of this thesis, investigates the determinants of the emissions compliance performance of the EU ETS-exposed firms through constructing the best possible performance ratio from verified emissions data and self-configuring models for a panel regression analysis. Chapter 5 examines the impacts on the EU ETS-exposed firms in terms of their equity valuation with customised portfolios and multi-factor market models. The research design takes into account the emissions allowance (EUA) price as an additional factor, as it has the most direct association with the EU ETS to control for the exposure. The final empirical Chapter 6 takes the investigation one step further, by specifically testing the degree of ETS exposure facing different sectors with sector-based portfolios and an extended multi-factor market model. The findings from the emissions performance ratio analysis show that the business model of firms significantly influences emissions compliance, as the capital intensity has a positive association with the increasing emissions-to-emissions cap ratio. Furthermore, different sectors show different degrees of sensitivity towards the determining factors. The production factor influences the performance ratio of the Utilities sector, but not the Energy or Materials sectors. The results show that the capital intensity has a more profound influence on the utilities sector than on the materials sector. With regard to the financial performance impact, ETS-exposed firms as aggregate portfolios experienced a substantial underperformance during the 2001–2004 period, but not in the operating period of 2005–2011. The results of the sector-based portfolios show again the differentiating effect of the EU ETS on sectors, as one sector is priced indifferently against its benchmark, three sectors see a constant underperformance, and three sectors have altered outcomes.

On the nature of income inequality across nations

In this paper, we investigate the nature of income inequality across nations. First, rather than functional forms or parameter values in calibration exercises that can potentially drives results, we estimate, test, and distinguish between types of aggregate production functions currently used in the growth literature. Next, given our panel-regression estimates, we perform several exercises, such as variance decompositions, simulations and counter-factual analyses. The picture that emerges is one where countries grew in the past for different reasons, which should be an important ingredient in policy design. Although there is not a single-factor explanation for the difference in output per-worker across nations, inequality, followed by distortions to capital accumulations and them by human capital accumulation.

Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions

This paper examines the price impact of trading due to expected changes in the FTSE 100 index composition. We focus on the latter index because it employs publicly-known objective criteria to determine membership and hence it provides a natural context to investigate anticipatory trading e ects. We propose a panel-regression event study that backs out these anticipatory e ects by looking at the price impact of the ex-ante proba-bility of changing index membership status. Our ndings reveal that anticipative trading explains about 40% and 23% of the cumulative abnormal returns of additions and deletions, respectively. We con rm these in-sample results out of sample by tracking the performance of a trading strategy that relies on the addition/deletion probability estimates. The perfor-mance is indeed very promising in that it entails an average daily excess return of 11 basis points over the FTSE 100 index.