Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Age-related lifecycles - Purpose variations

By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions.

O Papel das Agências de Viagens e Turismo no Desenvolvimento do Turismo Emissor e Receptor

Devido a mudanças tecnológicas e da globalização, o turismo vem passando por grandes transformações, permitindo um maior acesso às informações e uma maior aproximação entre o consumidor e o mercado turístico. O papel das agências de viagens e turismo (AVT’s) é de fundamental importância para o desenvolvimento da actividade turística de um país. Face a isto, as AVT’s devem aderir ao novo cenário, procurando acompanhar a evolução, renovando e actualizando sempre os seus serviços. O presente estudo tem por objectivo avaliar o papel das AVT’s da ilha de São Vicente, no âmbito do turismo emissor e receptor. Foi realizado um estudo de caso, incluindo os doze representantes das AVT’s da ilha de S. Vicente, com excepção das empresas exclusivamente marítimas. Foi usado um guião de entrevistas para a obtenção de dados relacionados aos responsáveis dos serviços, a empresa, aos colaboradores internos, clientes, serviços oferecidos, sazonalidade e sua problemática, parceiros, as tecnologias de informação e as perspectivas futuras. As informações foram analisadas sob um enquadramento teórico e prático. Constatou-se que sete agências dedicam-se ao turismo emissor e receptor, três ao turismo emissor, e duas ao receptor. Foi possível observar que as AVT’s apresentam semelhanças na prestação de serviços e a maioria tem a preocupação de acompanhar as exigências actuais do turismo. Pode-se concluir que o turismo emissor e receptor estão bem representados pelas AVT’s de São Vicente. Technological changes and globalization has allowed big transformations in Tourism, greater access to information and a closer relationship between the consumer and tourist market. The role of the Travel and Tourism Agencies (TTA) has fundamental importance for the tourism development in a country, and they must adhere to the new environment, trying to follow the evolution, always renewing and updating their services. The present study aims to evaluate the role of TTA’s in São Vicente Island, in the field of inbound and outbound tourism. It was conducted a case study, including 12 representatives of TTA's in São Vicente, with exception of shipping companies. It was used a scripted interview to obtain data about the service delegate, the company, internal employees, customers, offered services, seasonality and its problems, partners, information technology and future prospects. Data were analyzed from a theoretical and practical view. It was found that seven agencies dedicated to inbound and outbound tourism, three to outbound and two to inbound. The TTA’s have similarities in service delivery and most have the concern to keep up with current demands of tourism. It can be concluded that inbound and outbound tourism are well represented by TTA’s in São Vicente.

What factors affect the destination choice of Jordanian tourists?A panel data analysis

This paper investigates what factors affect the destination choice for Jordanian to 8 countries (Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, Lebanon and Bahrain) using panel data analysis. Number of outbound tourists is represented as dependent variable, which is regressed over five explanatory variables using fixed effect model. The finding of this paper is that tourists from Jordan have weak demand for outbound tourism; Jordanian decision of traveling abroad is determined by the cost of traveling to different places and choosing the cheapest alternative.

O enoturismo e o mercado chinês: Portugal como destino

O objetivo principal desta dissertação é relacionar o enoturismo com o maior mercado emissor de turistas do mundo – a China, nomeadamente no que diz respeito às potencialidades de Portugal como destino enoturístico para este mercado. Para o efeito, estruturou-se o trabalho de forma a dedicar um capítulo à caracterização do enoturismo, um segundo capítulo à caracterização do mercado emissor de turistas chinês com destaque para a caracterização do enoturismo na China e do enoturista chinês. Reservou-se um terceiro capítulo para proceder à caracterização de Portugal como destino de enoturismo, fazendo a caracterização da oferta e da procura, com particular enfoque para a procura chinesa. A metodologia de pesquisa desta dissertação assentou em revisão bibliográfica e na análise de dados fornecidos por fontes secundárias e terciárias, como estudos já conduzidos sobre o tema ou temas relacionados e dados quantitativos recolhidos junto das principais instituições nacionais e internacionais de referência. Apresentou-se a caracterização do enoturismo, em termos concetuais, mas sobretudo no contexto dos seus principais mercados de oferta. Com base na análise da oferta nestes mercados procedeu-se à recolha e apresentação de uma série de boas práticas internacionais, tanto no que toca ao enoturismo, como no que diz respeito a iniciativas de captação do turismo emissor chinês. Procedeu-se à caracterização do desenvolvimento do turismo emissor na China, da realidade do enoturismo na China e construiu-se um perfil do enoturista chinês.

Tourism competitiveness in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Health tourism trends in the United Kingdom: Are they net exporters of health services?

The study investigates the inbound and outbound health tourism in the United Kingdom (UK) to determine if the UK can be considered as a net exporter of health services. Although there is an increasing number of studies analysing the phenomenon of health tourism, little empirical data are available. This paper contributes to reducing this gap by providing reliable data on health tourism flows for the British case. Using microdata drawn from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for the period 2000-2014, we estimate the flows, number of nights and expenditure of tourists looking for medical treatment who complete international visits of less than 12 months’ duration to and from the UK. In addition, we analyse the main destinations of UK residents (outbound health tourists), and country of origin of overseas residents (inbound health tourists). The results show the upward trend of inbound and outbound patients (163 and 364% during the period 2000-2014, respectively), the strong seasonality in outbound patients (lower during the summer), and the significant increase in the levels of expenditure of overseas residents since 2005. Poland, France, India and Hungry are the chosen countries by UK residents to be treated, whereas Irish Republic, Spain, United Arab Emirates and Greece are the main countries providing inbound health patients. Public policy considerations are given.

Epidemiological study on leishmaniasis in an area of environmental tourism and ecotourism, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, 2006-2007

The aims of this study were to carry out a serological survey of canine leishmaniasis and identify the phlebotomine fauna in the urban area of Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul. The serological survey was conducted on a sample of 303 dogs, by means of the indirect immunofluorescence test. Phlebotomines were captured using automated light traps. The serological survey found that 30% of the dogs were seropositive, both from the center and from all districts of the town. A total of 2,772 specimens of phlebotomines were caught and the species most found was Lutzomyia longipalpis (90.4%), which corroborated its role as the vector of for canine visceral leishmaniasis in the region. Phlebotomines of the species Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (the main vector for Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis) and Nyssomyia whitmani (the vector for Leishmania (Viannia) brasiliensis) were also caught. The findings indicate the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance, with attention towards diminishing the vector breeding sites and the transmission of these diseases in that region.

The development of social tourism in Brazil

This article reflects on the origins and development of social tourism in Brazil, with particular reference to the socio-economic conditions in the country. It discusses the theoretical conceptualisation of social tourism and its implementations in the non-European context. The case study presented here is based on a secondary bibliographical research of existing definitions and an in-depth analysis of the political conditions that have framed its development. More particularly, this article will discuss public initiatives since the Labour Party gained power in Brazil in 2003. Apart from public sector involvement in social tourism, this article also examines the role of the third sector in provision. The example of Social Service of Commerce will be presented. This article will conclude by evaluating the phenomenon of social tourism in Brazil, highlighting where progress has been made and which are the key challenges that need to be overcome.

Concepts and tools for comprehensive sustainability assessments for tourism destinations: a comparative review

This paper reviews a wide range of tools for comprehensive sustainability assessments at whole tourism destinations, covering socio-cultural, economic and environmental issues. It considers their strengths, weaknesses and site specific applicability. It is intended to facilitate their selection (and combination where necessary). Tools covered include Sustainability Indicators, Environmental Impact Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Environmental Audits, Ecological Footprints, Multi-Criteria Analysis and Adaptive Environmental Assessment. Guidelines for evaluating their suitability for specific sites and situations are given as well as examples of their use.

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability has seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of 6 case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.