Law-and-order politics, public-opinion polls, and the media

Over the past two decades, considerable political rhetoric has focused on the need to get tough on crime. Justification for this hard-line approach has been the public's apparent concem about rising crime rates and its increasing dissatisfaction with criminal sentencing. In this paper, we consider characteristics both of the measurement of public opinion and of the influences upon public opinion that may contribute to the depiction of a fearful, punitive community. In particular, we identify sources of bias in the methods and contexts of opinion-polling that promote a distorted representation of the discrepancy between community expectations of sentencing and the practices of the judiciary. We argue that the practices of pollsters, politicians, and media combine to create a self-sustaining obstacle to considered community discussion of crime and criminal sentencing.

Interactive conference voting

We describe and analyze opinion polling results from interactive voting procedures undertaken before and after presentations during the Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials Conference (OMERACT II) in Ottawa, Canada, June 30-July 2, 1994. The scoring procedure was a matched voting design; when a participant used the same keypad at the beginning and end of voting, change within a participant could be estimated. Participants, experienced in the rheumatic diseases included clinicians, researchers, methodologists, regulators, and representatives of the pharmaceutical industry. Patients under consideration were those with any rheumatic diseases. Questions were constructed to evaluate the change in voting behavior expected from the content of the presentation. Statistically significant and substantively important changes were evident in most questions.

Procesos de privatización del agua en América Latina: análisis y seguimiento de la interacción estratégica entre movimientos sociales versus multinacionales en Bolivia, Uruguay y México. Período 2000 – 2006

El presente escrito, constituye una aproximación a los procesos de privatización del agua en América Latina. Lo anterior, en el marco de la acción colectiva, específicamente de los movimientos sociales y su interacción estratégica con oponentes como las compañías multinacionales, las organizaciones financieras internacionales y el Estado. Tomando como referencia las luchas ocurridas en Bolivia, Uruguay y México, con especial énfasis en La Guerra del Agua en Cochabamba (Bolivia).

The leaders and the press

Overall, as in 2001 and 2004, the print media provided substantial coverage of the election campaign; and, as in recent campaigns, the Prime Minister received greater coverage than the Opposition Leader. As in previous campaign coverage a small number of topics—including opinion polling—generated the majority of stories. Two features were different in the 2007 campaign, namely the gradual increase in the number of positive stories about the Opposition Leader; and an increase in the number of negative stories about and unflattering images of the Prime Minister.

Marine Le Pen and the 'New' FN:a change of style or of substance?

The electoral challenge of the far right is an enduringly problematic feature of contemporary French politics. In the first rounds of the 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections, the Front National (FN) under new leader Marine Le Pen attracted a combined total of ten million votes, bringing its ultra-nationalist policies to the centre of national political debate. This article examines the FN's impact on these elections and its implications for French politics. Drawing on official FN programmes, detailed election results and a range of opinion polling data, it assesses the strength of support for Le Pen and her party and seeks to explain their electoral appeal. In particular, it subjects to analysis the claim that the new leader has ‘de-demonised’ the FN, transforming it from perennial outsider to normal participant in mainstream French politics; and it reflects on the strategic dilemma posed for the centre-right by this newly invigorated far-right challenge.

The Political Economy of Information Provision in Developing Democracies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Vote with your feet : hyperlocal polling for urban screens

Vote with Your Feet is a hyperlocal polling tool for urban screens that lets users express their opinion on current affairs. Similar to vox populi interviews on TV, it is meant to reflect the mindset of the community and its diversity. It shows one Yes/No question at a time and lets the user vote by stepping with their foot on one of two physical buttons. By not only displaying the local but also national results (taken from newspaper polls or TV news), it creates a sense of place and can spark offline conversations as well as making people think about their own opinion. As a tangible media installation that bridges physical and digital urban layers, the project empowers citizens and facilitates a bottom-up approach in terms of stimulating opinions and decision making (rather than broadcasting or automating). In a second iteration of the design, we want to encourage users to submit their own questions.

Ipoll: Automatic polling using online search

For years, opinion polls rely on data collected through telephone or person-to-person surveys. The process is costly, inconvenient, and slow. Recently online search data has emerged as potential proxies for the survey data. However considerable human involvement is still needed for the selection of search indices, a task that requires knowledge of both the target issue and how search terms are used by the online community. The robustness of such manually selected search indices can be questionable. In this paper, we propose an automatic polling system through a novel application of machine learning. In this system, the needs for examining, comparing, and selecting search indices have been eliminated through automatic generation of candidate search indices and intelligent combination of the indices. The results include a publicly accessible web application that provides real-time, robust, and accurate measurements of public opinions on several subjects of general interest.

Marketing to change public opinion on climate change : a case study

Corporate advertisers spend far greater budgets than any social marketing campaign and have great potential to change public opinion on the urgent need for action on climate change. However “green-washing” has become a widespread practice by companies that wish to appear to be socially responsible without a genuine commitment and consumers can be very cynical about green marketing campaigns. Can companies be climate change advocates and still satisfy shareholders? This paper offers a case study on an Australian insurance company that argues it can make money from doing the right thing.

Critical opinion : the Docklands Precinct

Every one and their dog has done a Docklands design studio at university if they were educated in Melbourne. And all designers have an opinion on the idea of Docklands and its potential in the future, but few, apart from the Docklands authority themselves, have a handle on what's going on there now and what constitutes its qualities.

State-of-the-Art Review on Opinion Mining from Online Customers’ Feedback

Dealing with the ever-growing information overload in the Internet, Recommender Systems are widely used online to suggest potential customers item they may like or find useful. Collaborative Filtering is the most popular techniques for Recommender Systems which collects opinions from customers in the form of ratings on items, services or service providers. In addition to the customer rating about a service provider, there is also a good number of online customer feedback information available over the Internet as customer reviews, comments, newsgroups post, discussion forums or blogs which is collectively called user generated contents. This information can be used to generate the public reputation of the service providers’. To do this, data mining techniques, specially recently emerged opinion mining could be a useful tool. In this paper we present a state of the art review of Opinion Mining from online customer feedback. We critically evaluate the existing work and expose cutting edge area of interest in opinion mining. We also classify the approaches taken by different researchers into several categories and sub-categories. Each of those steps is analyzed with their strength and limitations in this paper.

Inducing shades of meaning by matrix methods : a first step towards thematic analysis of opinion

This article explores two matrix methods to induce the ``shades of meaning" (SoM) of a word. A matrix representation of a word is computed from a corpus of traces based on the given word. Non-negative Matrix Factorisation (NMF) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) compute a set of vectors corresponding to a potential shade of meaning. The two methods were evaluated based on loss of conditional entropy with respect to two sets of manually tagged data. One set reflects concepts generally appearing in text, and the second set comprises words used for investigations into word sense disambiguation. Results show that for NMF consistently outperforms SVD for inducing both SoM of general concepts as well as word senses. The problem of inducing the shades of meaning of a word is more subtle than that of word sense induction and hence relevant to thematic analysis of opinion where nuances of opinion can arise.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.