Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

An atmospheric diffusion nomogram with extended parameter ranges /

"February 15, 1956."

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Circulating tumor cell detection in high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) provides important prognostic information in men with metastatic prostate cancer. We aim to determine the rate of detection of CTCs in patients with high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer using the CellSearch® method. Method Samples of peripheral blood (7.5 mL) were drawn from 36 men with newly diagnosed high-risk non-metastatic prostate cancer, prior to any initiation of therapy and analyzed for CTCs using the CellSearch® method. Results The median age was 70 years, median PSA was 14.1, and the median Gleason score was 9. The median 5-year risk of progression of disease using a validated nomogram was 39 %. Five out of 36 patients (14 %, 95 % CI 5–30 %) had CTCs detected in their circulation. Four patients had only 1 CTC per 7.5 mL of blood detected. One patient had 3 CTCs per 7.5 mL of blood detected, which included a circulating tumor microemboli. Both on univariate analysis and multivariate analysis, there were no correlations found between CTC positivity and the classic prognostic factors including PSA, Gleason score, T-stage and age. Conclusion This study demonstrates that patients with high-risk, non-metastatic prostate cancer present infrequently with small number of CTCs in peripheral blood. This finding is consistent with the limited literature available in this setting. Other CTC isolation and detection technologies with improved sensitivity and specificity may enable detection of CTCs with mesenchymal phenotypes, although none as yet have been validated for clinical use. Newer assays are emerging for detection of new putative biomarkers for prostate cancer. Correlation of disease control outcomes with CTC detection will be important.

The Post-Illumination Pupil Response (PIPR)

Purpose The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) has been quantified using four metrics, but the spectral sensitivity of only one is known; here we determine the other three. To optimize the human PIPR measurement, we determine the protocol producing the largest PIPR, the duration of the PIPR, and the metric(s) with the lowest coefficient of variation. Methods The consensual pupil light reflex (PLR) was measured with a Maxwellian view pupillometer. - Experiment 1: Spectral sensitivity of four PIPR metrics [plateau, 6 s, area under curve (AUC) early and late recovery] was determined from a criterion PIPR to a 1s pulse and fitted with Vitamin A1 nomogram (λmax = 482nm). - Experiment 2: The PLR was measured as a function of three stimulus durations (1s, 10s, 30s), five irradiances spanning low to high melanopsin excitation levels (retinal irradiance: 9.8 to 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), and two wavelengths, one with high (465nm) and one with low (637nm) melanopsin excitation. Intra and inter-individual coefficients of variation (CV) were calculated. Results The melanopsin (opn4) photopigment nomogram adequately describes the spectral sensitivity of all four PIPR metrics. The PIPR amplitude was largest with 1s short wavelength pulses (≥ 12.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). The plateau and 6s PIPR showed the least intra and inter-individual CV (≤ 0.2). The maximum duration of the sustained PIPR was 83.0±48.0s (mean±SD) for 1s pulses and 180.1±106.2s for 30s pulses (465nm; 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Conclusions All current PIPR metrics provide a direct measure of the intrinsic melanopsin photoresponse. To measure progressive changes in melanopsin function in disease, we recommend that the PIPR be measured using short duration pulses (e.g., ≤ 1s) with high melanopsin excitation and analyzed with plateau and/or 6s metrics. Our PIPR duration data provide a baseline for the selection of inter-stimulus intervals between consecutive pupil testing sequences.

The post-illumination pupil response of melanopsin expressing retinal ganglion cells

Purpose The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) has been quantified in the literature by four metrics. The spectral sensitivity of only one metric is known and this study quantifies the other three. To optimize the measurement of the PIPR in humans, we also determine the stimulus protocol producing the largest PIPR, the duration of the PIPR, and the metric(s) with the lowest coefficient of variation. Methods The consensual pupil light reflex (PLR) was measured with a Maxwellian view pupillometer (35.6° diameter stimulus). - Experiment 1: Spectral sensitivity of four PIPR metrics [plateau, 6 s, area under curve (AUC) early and late recovery] was determined from a criterion PIPR (n = 2 participants) to a 1 s pulse at five wavelengths (409-592nm) and fitted with Vitamin A nomogram (ƛmax = 482 nm). - Experiment 2: The PLR was measured in five healthy participants [29 to 42 years (mean = 32.6 years)] as a function of three stimulus durations (1 s, 10 s, 30 s), five irradiances spanning low to high melanopsin excitation levels (retinal irradiance: 9.8 to 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), and two wavelengths, one with high (465 nm) and one with low (637 nm) melanopsin excitation. Intra and inter-individual coefficients of variation (CV) were calculated. Results The melanopsin (opn4) photopigment nomogram adequately described the spectral sensitivity derived from all four PIPR metrics. The largest PIPR amplitude was observed with 1 s short wavelength pulses (retinal irradiance ≥ 12.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Of the 4 PIPR metrics, the plateau and 6 s PIPR showed the least intra and inter-individual CV (≤ 0.2). The maximum duration of the sustained PIPR was 83.4 ± 48.0 s (mean ± SD) for 1 s pulses and 180.1 ± 106.2 s for 30 s pulses (465 nm; 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Conclusions All current PIPR metrics provide a direct measure of intrinsic melanopsin retinal ganglion cell function. To measure progressive changes in melanopsin function in disease, we recommend that the intrinsic melanopsin response should be measured using a 1 s pulse with high melanopsin excitation and the PIPR should be analyzed with the plateau and/or 6 s metrics. That the PIPR can have a sustained constriction for as long as 3 minutes, our PIPR duration data provide a baseline for the selection of inter-stimulus intervals between consecutive pupil testing sequences.

Localisation of discrete change in a transformer winding: a network-function-loci approach

An entirely different approach for localisation of winding deformation based on terminal measurements is presented. Within the context of this study, winding deformation means, a discrete and specific change externally imposed at a particular position on the winding. The proposed method is based on pre-computing and plotting the complex network-function loci e.g. driving-point impedance (DPI)] at a selected frequency, for a meaningful range of values for each element (increasing and decreasing) of the ladder network which represents the winding. This loci diagram is called the nomogram. After introducing a discrete change, amplitude and phase of DPI are measured. By plotting this single measurement on the nomogram, it is possible to estimate the location and identify the extent of change. In contrast to the existing approach, the proposed method is fast, non-iterative and yields reasonably good localisation. Experimental results for actual transformer windings (interleaved and continuous disc) are presented.

Gleason Upgrading with Time in a Large Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohort

PURPOSE: We report the percentage of patients on active surveillance who had disease pathologically upgraded and factors that predict for upgrading on surveillance biopsies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients in our active surveillance database with at least 1 repeat prostate biopsy were included. Histological upgrading was defined as any increase in primary or secondary Gleason grade on repeat biopsy. Multivariate analysis was used to determine baseline and dynamic factors associated with Gleason upgrading. This information was used to develop a nomogram to predict for upgrading or treatment in patients electing for active surveillance.

RESULTS: Of 862 patients in our cohort 592 had 2 or more biopsies. Median followup was 6.4 years. Of the patients 20% were intermediate risk, 0.3% were high risk and all others were low risk. During active surveillance 31.3% of cases were upgraded. On multivariate analysis clinical stage T2, higher prostate specific antigen and higher percentage of cores involved with disease at the time of diagnosis predicted for upgrading. A total of 27 cases (15% of those upgraded) were Gleason 8 or higher at upgrading, and 62% of all 114 upgraded cases went on to have active treatment. The nomogram incorporated clinical stage, age, prostate specific antigen, core positivity and Gleason score. The concordance index was 0.61.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large re-biopsy cohort with medium-term followup, most cases have not been pathologically upgraded to date. A model predicting for upgrading or radical treatment was developed which could be useful in counseling patients considering active surveillance for prostate cancer.