TAKING THE PERSPECTIVE OF A SELLER AND A BUYER: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRICE ELICITATION AND PRICE FRAMING

This dissertation consists of two essays which investigate how assuming the role of a seller or a buyer affects valuations in a price elicitation task (essay I) and how different presentations of an equivalent price affect evaluations when a consumer plays the dual roles of a buyer and a seller in transactions involving trade-ins (essay II). Sellers’ willingness to accept (WTA) to give up a good is typically higher than buyers' willingness to pay (WTP) to obtain the good. Essay I proposes that valuation processes of sellers and buyers are guided by a motivational orientation of “getting the best.” For a seller (buyer) indicating WTA (WTP), getting the best implies receiving as much as possible to give up a specific good (giving up as little as possible to get the specific good). Results of six studies suggest that the WTA-WTP elicitation task activates different directional goals, leading to the WTA-WTP disparity. The different directional goals lead sellers and buyers to focus on different aspects and bias their cognitive reasoning and interpretation of information. By connecting the valuation process to the general motivation of getting the best, this research provides a unifying framework to explain the disparate interpretations of the WTA-WTP disparity. Many new purchases and replacement decisions involve consumers’ trading in their old products. In such transactions, the overall exchange may be priced either as separate transactions (partitioned) with price tags for the payment and the receipt or as a single net price (consolidated) which takes into account the value of the trade-in. Essay II examines whether consumers prefer a partitioned price versus a consolidated price presentation. The findings suggest that when consumers are trading in a product which has a low value relative to the price of a new product, they prefer a consolidated price. In contrast, when trading in a product which has high value, they prefer a partitioned price. The results suggest that consumers use the price of the new product as an anchor to evaluate the trade-in value, and the perception of the trade-in value influences the overall evaluation especially when the transaction is partitioned.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

El mercado móvil de telecomunicaciones en Colombia ante externalidades de red

Si bien la generalidad de los mercados de telefonía móvil se consideran suficientemente competidos, los mercados en los que el operador más grande supera ampliamente en participación de mercado a sus seguidores constituyen un motivo de preocupación para sus respectivas autoridades regulatorias y de competencia. El análisis económico del problema ha llevado a que exista una cantidad creciente de literatura relacionada, principalmente con el propósito de analizar la persistencia de la asimetría en las cuotas de mercado. Tal es el caso del mercado móvil de telecomunicaciones en Colombia, donde la Comisión de Regulación de Comunicaciones ha sostenido que a la luz del problema de competencia que se origina por la unión de una participación de mercado considerablemente asimétrica y el diferencial de precios, el operador más grande adquiere una ventaja competitiva considerable frente a los demás operadores en el mercado, y por lo tanto es un operador con poder significativo de mercado, u operador con posición dominante. Por lo anterior, el presente trabajo evalúa la imposición de algunas medidas regulatorias con el fin de verificar si estas contribuyen a generar una mayor competencia en el mercado, y mejores condiciones para los operadores competidores.

Solvency risk minimizing guaranteed returns in life insurance

Return guarantee constitutes a key ingredient of classical life insurance premium calculation. In the current low interest rate environment insurers face increasingly strong financial incentives to reduce guaranteed returns embedded in life insurance contracts. However, return guarantee lowering efforts are restrained by associated demand effects, since a higher guaranteed return makes the net price of the insurance cover lower. This tradeoff between possibly higher future insurance obligations and the possibility of a larger demand for life insurance products can theoretically also be considered when determining optimal guaranteed returns. In this paper, optimality of return guarantee levels is analyzed from a solvency point of view. Availability and some other properties of optimal solutions for guaranteed returns are explored and compared in a simple model for two measures of solvency risk (company-level and contract-level VaR). The paper concludes that a solvency risk minimizing optimal guaranteed return may theoretically exist, although its practical availability can be impeded by economic and regulatory constraints.

A congestion management and transmission price simulator for competitive electricity markets

In a liberalized electricity market, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) plays a crucial role in power system operation. Among many other tasks, TSO detects congestion situations and allocates the payments of electricity transmission. This paper presents a software tool for congestion management and transmission price determination in electricity markets. The congestion management is based on a reformulated Optimal Power Flow (OPF), whose main goal is to obtain a feasible solution for the re-dispatch minimizing the changes in the dispatch proposed by the market operator. The transmission price computation considers the physical impact caused by the market agents in the transmission network. The final tariff includes existing system costs and also costs due to the initial congestion situation and losses costs. The paper includes a case study for the IEEE 30 bus power system.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Nodal price simulation in competitive electricity markets

Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) are important pricing signals for the participants of competitive electricity markets, as the effects of transmission losses and binding constraints are embedded in LMPs [1],[2]. This paper presents a software tool that evaluates the nodal marginal prices considering losses and congestion. The initial dispatch is based on all the electricity transactions negotiated in the pool and in bilateral contracts. It must be checked if the proposed initial dispatch leads to congestion problems; if a congestion situation is detected, it must be solved. An AC power flow is used to verify if there are congestion situations in the initial dispatch. Whenever congestion situations are detected, they are solved and a feasible dispatch (re-dispatch) is obtained. After solving the congestion problems, the simulator evaluates LMP. The paper presents a case study based on the the 118 IEEE bus test network.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European banks

Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost relevance, because of the impact of this sector on economic growth and financial stability. Of all the different assets that make up a bank portfolio, the residential mortgage loans constitute one of its main. Using the dynamic panel data method, we analyse the influence of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, using a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weights of residential mortgage loans show lower credit risk in good times. This result explains why banks rush to lend on property during booms due to the positive effects it has on credit risk. The results show further that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property price cycle. The results also reveal the existence of a non-linear relationship (U-shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and the residential mortgage loans exposure. For those banks that have high credit risk, a large exposure of residential mortgage loans is associated with higher risk-adjusted profitability, through lower risk. For banks with a moderate/low credit risk, the effects of higher residential mortgage loan exposure on its risk-adjusted profitability are also positive or marginally positive.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European

Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum-revenue tariff with different roles in a price-setting competition

Published also at Lecture Notes in Engineering and Computer Science

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Desirable role in a price-setting international mixed duopoly

In this paper, we study the order of moves in a mixed international duopoly for differentiated goods, where firms choose whether to set prices sequentially or simultaneously. We discuss the desirable role of the public firm by comparing welfare among three games. We find that, in the three possible roles, the domestic public firm put a lower price, and then produces more than the foreign private firm.