Identifying relationship between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes using probability-based risk approach

Road accidents are of great concerns for road and transport departments around world, which cause tremendous loss and dangers for public. Reducing accident rates and crash severity are imperative goals that governments, road and transport authorities, and researchers are aimed to achieve. In Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$ 15 billion annually. Five people are killed, and 550 are injured every day. Each fatality costs the taxpayer A$1.7 million. Serious injury cases can cost the taxpayer many times the cost of a fatality. Crashes are in general uncontrolled events and are dependent on a number of interrelated factors such as driver behaviour, traffic conditions, travel speed, road geometry and condition, and vehicle characteristics (e.g. tyre type pressure and condition, and suspension type and condition). Skid resistance is considered one of the most important surface characteristics as it has a direct impact on traffic safety. Attempts have been made worldwide to study the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Most of these studies used the statistical regression and correlation methods in analysing the relationships between skid resistance and road crashes. The outcomes from these studies provided mix results and not conclusive. The objective of this paper is to present a probability-based method of an ongoing study in identifying the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Historical skid resistance and crash data of a road network located in the tropical east coast of Queensland were analysed using the probability-based method. Analysis methodology and results of the relationships between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes are presented.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

Comprehending adverbs of doubt and certainty in health communication: A multidimensional scaling approach

This research explored the feasibility of using multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis in novel combination with other techniques to study comprehension of epistemic adverbs expressing doubt and certainty (e.g., evidently, obviously, probably) as they relate to health communication in clinical settings. In Study 1, Australian English speakers performed a dissimilarity-rating task with sentence pairs containing the target stimuli, presented as "doctors' opinions". Ratings were analyzed using a combination of cultural consensus analysis (factor analysis across participants), weighted-data classical-MDS, and cluster analysis. Analyses revealed strong within-community consistency for a 3-dimensional semantic space solution that took into account individual differences, strong statistical acceptability of the MDS results in terms of stress and explained variance, and semantic configurations that were interpretable in terms of linguistic analyses of the target adverbs. The results confirmed the feasibility of using MDS in this context. Study 2 replicated the results with Canadian English speakers on the same task. Semantic analyses and stress decomposition analysis were performed on the Australian and Canadian data sets, revealing similarities and differences between the two groups. Overall, the results support using MDS to study comprehension of words critical for health communication, including in future studies, for example, second language speaking patients and/or practitioners. More broadly, the results indicate that the techniques described should be promising for comprehension studies in many communicative domains, in both clinical settings and beyond, and including those targeting other aspects of language and focusing on comparisons across different speech communities.

Sphingosine Kinase 1 Promotes Malignant Progression in Colon Cancer and Independently Predicts Survival of Patients With Colon Cancer by Competing Risk Approach in South Asian Population

OBJECTIVES: Sphingosine kinase 1 (SphK1) phosphorylates the membrane sphingolipid, sphingosine, to sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), an oncogenic mediator, which drives tumor cell growth and survival. Although SphK1 has gained increasing prominence as an oncogenic determinant in several cancers, its potential as a therapeutic target in colon cancer remains uncertain. We investigated the clinical relevance of SphK1 expression in colon cancer as well as its inhibitory effects in vitro.

METHODS: SphK1 expression in human colon tumor tissues was determined by immunohistochemistry and its clinicopathological significance was ascertained in 303 colon cancer cases. The effects of SphK1 inhibition on colon cancer cell viability and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt cell survival pathway were investigated using a SphK1-selective inhibitor-compound 5c (5c). The cytotoxicity of a novel combination using SphK1 inhibition with the chemotherapeutic drug, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), was also determined.

RESULTS: High SphK1 expression correlated with advanced tumor stages (AJCC classification). Using a competing risk analysis model to take into account disease recurrence, we found that SphK1 is a significant independent predictor for mortality in colon cancer patients. In vitro, the inhibition of SphK1 induced cell death in colon cancer cell lines and attenuated the serum-dependent PI3K/Akt signaling. Inhibition of SphK1 also enhanced the sensitivity of colon cancer cells to 5-FU.

CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the impact of SphK1 in colon cancer progression and patient survival, and provide evidence supportive of further development in combination strategies that incorporate SphK1 inhibition with current chemotherapeutic agents to improve colon cancer outcomes.

A multidimensional measurement approach and analysis of children's motivation for reading, attributional style, and reading achievement

The present study investigates the usefulness of a multi-method approach to the measurement of reading motivation and achievement. A sample of 127 elementary and middle-school children aged 10 to 14 responded to measures of motivation, attributions, and achievement both longitudinally and in a challenging reading context. Novel measures of motivation and attributions were constructed, validated, and utilized to examine the relationship between ~ motivation, attributions, and achievement over a one-year period (Study I). The impact of classroom contexts and instructional practices was also explored through a study of the influence of topic interest and challenge on motivation, attributions, and persistence (Study II), as well as through interviews with children regarding motivation and reading in the classroom (Study III). Creation and validation of novel measures of motivation and attributions supported the use of a self-report measure of motivation in situation-specific contexts, and confirmed a three-factor structure of attributions for reading performance in both hypothetical and situation-specific contexts. A one-year follow up study of children's motivation and reading achievement demonstrated declines in all components of motivation beginning at age 10 through 12, and particularly strong decreases in motivation with the transition to middle school. Past perceived competence for reading predicted current achievement after controlling for past achievement, and showed the strongest relationships with reading-related skills in both elementary and middle school. Motivation and attributions were strongly related, and children with higher motivation Fulmer III displayed more adaptive attributions for reading success and failure. In the context of a developmentally inappropriate challenging reading task, children's motivation for reading, especially in terms of perceived competence, was threatened. However, interest in the story buffered some ofthe negative impacts of challenge, sustaining children's motivation, adaptive attributions, and reading persistence. Finally, children's responses during interviews outlined several emotions, perceptions, and aspects of reading tasks and contexts that influence reading motivation and achievement. Findings revealed that children with comparable motivation and achievement profiles respond in a similar way to particular reading situations, such as excessive challenge, but also that motivation is dynamic and individualistic and can change over time and across contexts. Overall, the present study outlines the importance of motivation and adaptive attributions for reading success, and the necessity of integrating various methodologies to study the dynamic construct of achievement motivation.

Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

This paper aims at developing a simulation framework to jointly assess agricultural and water issues. While the strong linkages between water, food, and the environment call for an integrated and multidisciplinary modelling approach, a complete and consistent modelling system to evaluate food-water relationships in Europe was missing so far. The spatial economic simulation model for agriculture CAPRI, which comprises a set of environmental indicators to assess food-environment interrelations within European regions, has been extended to account for food-water links. This modelling framework enables simulating the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production at the EU regional level, as well as looking at the sustainable use of water, the implementation of water policies or the integration of water issues in the Common Agricultural Policy

Joint assessment of water and agricultural policies: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

Sustainability and the food-water-environment nexus. Food-water linkages in global agro-economic models. The CAPRI water module. Potential to jointly assess food and water policies. Pilot case study. Further development.

La gestion des risques informationnels dans l’entreprise privée : perspective des gestionnaires de la sécurité.

Ce mémoire de maîtrise porte sur la gestion des risques informationnels dans l’entreprise privée. Plus précisément, nous avons cherché à comprendre, à partir de l’expérience et du point de vue des gestionnaires de la sécurité, comment s’élaborait une prise de décisions relativement à la protection des actifs informationnels d’une entreprise, de l’identification des risques à la mise en place de mesures visant à les réduire. Pour ce faire, nous devions dégager les éléments du contexte organisationnel qui contribuent à façonner les décisions du gestionnaire de la sécurité en cette matière en considérant deux principales dimensions : la dynamique relationnelle à l’œuvre de même que les enjeux, les contraintes et les opportunités susceptibles d’influence la prise de décisions. Nous voulions également connaitre le rôle et les responsabilités du gestionnaire de la sécurité au sein de ce processus décisionnel et préciser, le cas échéant, sa participation au modèle de gouvernance de gestion des risques. Pour rendre compte de la complexité de ce processus, il semblait approprié de concevoir un cadre théorique combinant deux approches: l’approche multidimensionnelle du risque et l’approche de la transaction sociale. Si la première considère que la définition du risque doit être contextualiser, l’autre admet que la dynamique relationnelle n’est pas le simple fait de jeux entres acteurs stratégiques. L’analyse en fonction de ses deux approches a révélé que la gestion des risques informationnels dans une entreprise est largement tributaire des caractéristiques personnelles du gestionnaire de la sécurité. Certes, le contexte organisationnel et la multiplication des enjeux sécuritaires exercent une influence considérable sur le processus décisionnel mais l’expérience, les connaissances et les capacités communicationnelles du gestionnaire contribuent directement à la réussite de chaque phase du processus de gestion des risques informationnels.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Analysis of financial data series using fractional Fourier transform and multidimensional scaling

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indexes during the period 2000–2009. We analyze, under a regional criterium, ten main indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of dynamical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, fractional Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt the multidimensional scaling approach. Stock market indexes are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. Therefore, these indexes, viewed from a different perspectives, lead to new classification patterns.

Whole of life cycle cost analysis in bridge rehabilitation

The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.

The Great Recession and the changing distribution of economic vulnerability by social class:The Irish case

Ireland provides an interesting case study of the distributional consequences of the Great Recession. To explore such effects we develop a measure of economic vulnerability based on a multidimensional risk profile for income poverty, material deprivation and economic stress. In the context of conflicting expectations of trends in social class differentials, we provide a comparison of pre and post-recession periods. Our analysis reveals a doubling of levels of economic vulnerability and a significant change in multidimensional profiles. Income poverty became less closely associated with material deprivation and economic stress and the degree of polarization between vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes was significantly reduced. Economic vulnerability is highly stratified by social class for both pre and post-recession periods. Focusing on absolute change, the main contrast is between the salariat and the non-agricultural self-employed and the remaining classes; providing some support for notions of polarization. In terms of relative change the higher salariat, the non-agricultural self-employed, the semi-unskilled manual and those who never worked gained relative to the remaining classes. This provides support the notion of ‘middle class squeeze’. The changing relationship between social class and household work intensity reflected a similar pattern. The impact of the latter on economic vulnerability declined sharply, while it came to play an increasing role in mediating the impact of membership of the non-agricultural middle classes. Responding to the political pressures likely to be associated with ‘middle class squeeze’ while sustaining the social welfare arrangements that have traditionally protected the economically vulnerable presents formidable challenges in terms of maintaining social cohesion and political legitimacy.

La influencia del crimen organizado transnacional en el proceso de formulación de políticas públicas. Estudio de caso: Argentina 2001-2013

Este estudio de caso analiza la influencia del Crimen Organizado Transnacional en la formulación de Políticas Públicas de seguridad en Argentina entre 2001 y 2013. En contraste con otros estudios, se considera que la relación de estos dos fenómenos debe recoger aspectos fundamentales de un enfoque de seguridad integral y multidimensional. En el caso de Argentina, durante 2001 el Crimen Organizado Transnacional ocupó el primer lugar en la agenda pública, lo cual derivó en una serie de acciones públicas llevadas a cabo por los distintos gobiernos. Sin embargo, los casos de Santa Fe en 2012 y Córdoba en 2013 demostraron la debilidad institucional en la formulación de Políticas Públicas de este país. Por lo tanto, este trabajo pretende demostrar con los casos anteriormente mencionados que debilidades estatales como la corrupción estatal y la indiferencia ciudadana son obstáculos para la formulación de políticas públicas.

Ibrutinib inhibits platelet integrin αIIbβ3 outside-in signaling and thrombus stability but not adhesion to collagen

OBJECTIVE: Ibrutinib is an irreversible Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor approved for treatment of Waldenstrom macroglobulinemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and mantle cell lymphoma that increases the risk of bleeding among patients. Platelets from ibrutinib-treated patients exhibit deficiencies in collagen-evoked signaling in suspension; however, the significance of this observation and how it relates to bleeding risk is unclear, as platelets encounter immobile collagen in vivo. We sought to clarify the effects of ibrutinib on platelet function to better understand the mechanism underlying bleeding risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: By comparing signaling in suspension and during adhesion to immobilized ligands, we found that the collagen signaling deficiency caused by ibrutinib is milder during adhesion to immobilized collagen. We also found that platelets in whole blood treated with ibrutinib adhered to collagen under arterial shear but formed unstable thrombi, suggesting that the collagen signaling deficiency caused by ibrutinib may not be the predominant cause of bleeding in vivo. However, clot retraction and signaling evoked by platelet adhesion to immobilized fibrinogen were also inhibited by ibrutinib, indicating that integrin αIIbβ3 outside-in signaling is also effected in addition to GPVI signaling. When ibrutinib was combined with the P2Y12 inhibitor, cangrelor, thrombus formation under arterial shear was inhibited additively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that (1) ibrutinib causes GPVI and integrin αIIbβ3 platelet signaling deficiencies that result in formation of unstable thrombi and may contribute toward bleeding observed in vivo and (2) combining ibrutinib with P2Y12 antagonists, which also inhibit thrombus stability, may have a detrimental effect on hemostasis.

Latin American structuralism and economic theory

Includes bibliography