Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

Past and future forest composition and distribution in temperate mountain ranges is strongly influenced by temperature and snowpack. We used LANDCLIM, a spatially explicit, dynamic vegetation model, to simulate forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years and compared the simulation results to pollen and macrofossil records at five sites on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). To address the hydrological effects of climate-driven variations in snowpack on simulated forest dynamics, we added a simple snow accumulation-and-melt module to the vegetation model and compared simulations with and without the module. LANDCLIM produced realistic present-day species composition with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Over the last 16,000 years, simulations driven by transient climate data from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and by a chironomid-based temperature reconstruction captured Late-glacial to Late Holocene transitions in forest communities. Overall, the reconstruction-driven vegetation simulations matched observed vegetation changes better than the AOGCM-driven simulations. This study also indicates that forest composition is very sensitive to snowpack-mediated changes in soil moisture. Simulations without the snow module showed a strong effect of snowpack on key bioclimatic variables and species composition at higher elevations. A projected upward shift of the snow line and a decrease in snowpack might lead to drastic changes in mountain forests composition and even a shift to dry meadows due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils.

Composição florística da floresta semidecídua de altitude do Parque Municipal da Grota Funda (Atibaia - Estado de São Paulo)

A floristic survey was carried out in the Grota Funda Municipal Park, Atibaia Municipality, Sao Paulo State (45º45 - 46º 45'W and 23º10 - 23º15'S), a mountainous region from 900 to 1400 meters above sea level. The climate is characterized by two seasons a hot, moist period from October to March and a dry, cold period from April to August, with frequent frosts. The sandy soil is low in fertility and highly acid at the surface. The study was done from April 1987 to November 1988. A total of 415 species were collected and identified: 362 dicotyledons belonging to 84 families and 224 genera, and 53 monocotyledons beloging to 15 families and 43 genera. Species richness in Atibaia can be attributed to environmental diversity, edaphic variation, and slight disturbance of the vegetation. A comparison with other floristic surveys in mountain forests was made and a list of the most common species of this kind of forest is presented.

L'exploitation des ressources végétales dans les Pyrénées orientales durant l'holocène: analyse anthracologique des structures d'élevage, de four et de charbonnières dans l'Alt Urgell (Chaîne du Cadí) et la Vallée du Madriu (Andorre)

Dans ce travail, nous présentons le résultat des recherches anthracologiques réalisées sur des sites archéologiques de haute montagne dans les Pyrénées orientales. Cette recherche s’insère dans un projet d’archéologie du paysage. Les zones d’étude se situent dans les Pré-Pyrénées sur le versant méridional de la chaîne du Cadí (vallée de la Vansa, Alt Urgell), et dans la vallée du Madriu, située dans les Pyrénées axiales, en Andorre. Le but principal de l’analyse anthracologique a été de connaître et comprendre la dynamique et la relation qui unissent les populations qui ont occupé ces vallées avec le milieu forestier de haute montagne. Les échantillons ont été récupérés sur des structures archéologiques associés à l’exploitation forestière (charbonnières, fours pour la fabrication de résine), au pastoralisme (cabanes et enclos) et à l’exploitation minière-métallurgique (four de grillage), avec une chronologie qui débute au Néolithique Ancien et finit à l’époque moderne et contemporaine (XVIII-XIXe siècles). Les résultats indiquent une variabilité taxonomique pauvre avec la présence majoritaire du Pinus et la présence ponctuelle d’autres espèces arbustives (Ericaceae et Juniperus) et arborées, comme Betula alba ou Abies alba. Différentes formations végétales de haute montagne ont été identifiées, selon leur localisation en versant ensoleillé ou ombragé, ainsi que leur altitude. Les résultats montrent des traces d’exploitation forestière dès le Néolithique Ancien, une intensification des activités à l’Antiquité, même si l’impact anthropique majeur correspond à l’activité de charbonnage d’époque moderne.

Improved methods for measuring forest landscape structure: LiDAR complements field-based habitat assessment

Conservation and monitoring of forest biodiversity requires reliable information about forest structure and composition at multiple spatial scales. However, detailed data about forest habitat characteristics across large areas are often incomplete due to difficulties associated with field sampling methods. To overcome this limitation we employed a nationally available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing dataset to develop variables describing forest landscape structure across a large environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using a model species indicative of structurally rich mountain forests (hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia), we tested the potential of such variables to predict species occurrence and evaluated the additional benefit of LiDAR data when used in combination with traditional, sample plot-based field variables. We calibrated boosted regression trees (BRT) models for both variable sets separately and in combination, and compared the models’ accuracies. While both field-based and LiDAR models performed well, combining the two data sources improved the accuracy of the species’ habitat model. The variables retained from the two datasets held different types of information: field variables mostly quantified food resources and cover in the field and shrub layer, LiDAR variables characterized heterogeneity of vegetation structure which correlated with field variables describing the understory and ground vegetation. When combined with data on forest vegetation composition from field surveys, LiDAR provides valuable complementary information for encompassing species niches more comprehensively. Thus, LiDAR bridges the gap between precise, locally restricted field-data and coarse digital land cover information by reliably identifying habitat structure and quality across large areas.

Neogene palaeoclimate reconstructions in Anatolia (Turkey)

Neogene basins are widespread in Turkey and contain important lignite deposits. In this study, we reconstruct quantitatively the Late Oligocene-Miocene climate evolution in western and central Anatolia by applying the Coexistence Approach to the palynoflora. The obtained results are compared with the data derived from the published and ongoing studies in western and central Anatolia palynofloras by application of the Coexistence Approach. The Coexistence Approach results show that the sedimentation mainly developed on terrestrial environment under the warm subtropical climatic conditions and marine influence during the Chattian and Aquitanian period in western Anatolia (16.5-21.3°C of mean annual temperature (MAT) and 5.5-13.3°C of mean temperature of coldest month (CMT)). After the regression of the sea during the Burdigalian period, the vegetation developed under the terrestrial conditions, which had started in the Burdigalian time in western and central Anatolia and continued in the early-middle Serravallian period. Warm subtropical climate is suggested during the Chattian and Aquitanian period in western Anatolia and becomes cooler in subtropical conditions because of decreasing of the P/A-ratio during the latest Burdigalian-Langhian. The climate was subtropical in western and central Anatolia during the Early-Late Serravalian due to the increasing of the subtropical elements (17.2 to 20.8°C of MAT and 9.6 to13.1°C of CMT). Besides, decreasing of the CMT and MAT values in western and central Anatolia supports the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian warming and middle Miocene climatic optimum that is also globally observed. Warm temperate climatic conditions are observed in the Late Miocene. During the early-middle Tortonian, the values are 15.6 to 20.8°C for the MAT, 5.5 to 13.3°C for the CMT and 823 and 1520 mm for the mean annual precipitation (MAP). They had also dry seasons due to lower boundary of MAP lying at 823mm during the middle-Late Tortonian. The palaeotopography of central Anatolia was higher when compared to that of western Anatolia because dominance of the mountain forests was present during the Middle-Late Miocene in central Anatolia. This study provides the first quantitative model for Late Oligocene-Miocene palaeoclimatic evolution in western and central Anatolia.

Coleópteros Saproxílicos de los Bosques de Montaña en el Norte de la Comunidad de Madrid

La fauna saproxílica ha cobrado mucha relevancia en los últimos años. Por una parte, debido a los múltiples papeles que juega en la ecología de los bosques y por otra, por encontrarse muchas especies de ese grupo amenazadas como consecuencia de la intensificación de las actividades forestales. Se supone que los bosques de Europa meridional albergan una fauna saproxílica rica y variada. Sin embargo apenas se han realizado estudios que permitan conocer la composición de las biocenosis saproxílicas, así como el estatus y grado de amenaza a que está sometida cada especie. En esta tesis se han muestreado de forma sistemática las comunidades de coleópteros saproxílicos de cuatro montes del norte de la Comunidad de Madrid, muy diferentes a pesar de su cercanía: Dehesa Bonita de Somosierra, Hayedo de Montejo, Dehesa de Madarcos y Pinar de La Maleza. Para llevar a cabo la recogida de muestras se definió una estación de muestreo tipo, compuesta por cuatro trampas aéreas con cebo oloroso, dos trampas de ventana y una trampa de embudos. En los dos primeros montes mencionados se desplegaron seis estaciones de muestreo, por sólo tres en los otros dos. El primer objetivo de esta tesis fue conocer las especies de coleópteros que constituyen la fauna de los cuatro montes estudiados. Los muestreos sistemáticos reportaron la presencia de un total de 357 especies de coleópteros saproxílicos, siendo el Hayedo de Montejo el bosque con la diversidad más alta, 220 especies; le siguen la Dehesa de Madarcos con 116; el pinar de La Maleza con 115; y la Dehesa de Somosierra con 109, si bien la fauna de este ultimo bosque podría ser mucho más variada dado que la interferencia del ganado con algunos dispositivos de captura hizo que se perdiera parte del material allí recolectado. Se han encontrado nueve especies nuevas para la fauna de la Península Ibérica, y otras muchas desconocidas previamente en el centro peninsular. Un total de 50 especies se encuentran incluidas en la Lista Roja Europea de coleópteros saproxílicos. El segundo objetivo fue estimar la riqueza de fauna de coleópteros saproxílicos en cada bosque. Partiendo de los datos de los respectivo muestreos se calcularon diferentes estimadores, paramétricos y no paramétricos, y se elaboraron las curvas de rarefacción para cada bosque y para el conjunto. El bosque con más biodiversidad ha resultado ser el Hayedo de Montejo, que albergaría entre 254 y 332 especies. En el Pinar de la Maleza se encontrarían de 132 a 223; de 128 a 205 en la Dehesa de Somosierra; y entre 134 y 188 en la Dehesa de Madarcos. Para el conjunto del área se estimó la presencia de entre 411 y 512 especies. El tercer objetivo fue evaluar la influencia de algunos factores como la especie arbórea dominante y la cantidad de madera muerta en la riqueza y diversidad de coleópteros saproxílicos. El estudio se realizó en el Hayedo de Montejo, encontrando una alta correlación positiva entre cantidad y calidad de madera muerta, y diversidad y riqueza de especies de coleópteros saproxílicos. El cuarto objetivo fue evaluar la eficacia y complementariedad de los diferentes tipos de dispositivos de captura empleados en los muestreos. El más eficaz resultó ser la trampa de ventana, seguido por la trampa aérea con cebo oloroso, y finalmente la trampa de embudos. La mayor complementariedad se encontró entre trampas de ventana y aéreas con cebo oloroso. No obstante, si se quiere optimizar la exhaustividad del inventario no se debe prescindir de ninguno de los sistemas. En cualquier caso, puede afirmarse que la efectividad de los tres tipos de dispositivos de captura utilizados en los muestreos fue baja, pues para la gran mayoría de especies presentes se capturó un número de ejemplares realmente bajo. El bajo rendimiento de captura implica un bajo impacto sobre las poblaciones de las especies muestreadas, y esto supone una importante ventaja desde el punto de vista de la conservación. Finalmente, se dejan algunas recomendaciones de manejo a aplicar en cada uno de los montes con el fin de preservar o mejorar los hábitats utilizables por la fauna saproxílica que garanticen el mantenimiento y mejora de dichas comunidades. ABSTRACT The saproxylic fauna has become increasingly important in recent years. It has been due, on the one hand, to the multiple roles they play in the forest ecosystems and, on the other, because of the large proportion of endangered saproxylic species as a result of the intensification of forestry. It is generally assumed that southern Europe forests are home to a rich and diverse saproxylic fauna. However, there are hardly any studies leading to reveal the composition of saproxylic biocenosis, or the stage and extent of the threat each species is suffering. For the purpose of this thesis the communities of saproxylic beetles of four mountain forests in northern Comunidad de Madrid have been systematically sampled: Dehesa Bonita de Somosierra, Hayedo de Montejo, Dehesa de Madarcos and Pinar de La Maleza. They are very different from each other in spite of not being too far apart. In order to carry out sample collection, a standard sampling station was defined as follows: four smelly bait aerial traps, two window traps and one funnel trap. Six sampling stations were deployed in each of the first two forests mentioned above; put only three in each of the other two. The first aim of this thesis was to determine the composition of saproxylic beetles fauna inhabiting each of the four forests studied. Systematic sampling reported the presence of a total of 357 species of saproxylic beetles. Hayedo de Montejo, with 220 species, is the forest with the highest diversity, followed by Dehesa de Madarcos, 116; Pinar de La Maleza, 115, and Dehesa de Somosierra, 109. The fauna of the latter forest, however, could be much more varied, since cattle interference with some capture devices caused the loss of part of the material collected there. Nine new species in the fauna of the Iberian Peninsula were found, and many others previously unknown in the center of the Peninsula. A total of 41 of those species are included in the European Red List of saproxylic beetles. The second aim was to estimate the richness of saproxylic (beetle) fauna in each forest. From the data of the respective sampling, different parametric and nonparametric estimators were calculated, and rarefaction curves for each forest, as well as for the four of them together, were drawn. The most biodiverse forest turned out to be Hayedo de Montejo, which houses between 254 and 332 species. In Pinar de La Maleza, between 132 and 223 species were found; between 128 and 205 in Dehesa de Somosierra, and between 134 and 188 in Dehesa de Madarcos. The estimated diversity of species for the whole area ranges from 411 to 512. The third aim was to evaluate the influence of such factors as the dominant tree species and the amount of dead wood in the richness and diversity of saproxylic beetles. The study was conducted at Hayedo de Montejo, finding a high positive correlation between quantity and quality of coarse woody debris and diversity and richness of saproxylic beetle species. The fourth aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and complementarity of the different sampling methods used in this research work. The most effective proved to be the window trap, followed by the smelly bait aerial trap and the funnel trap, in that order. The greater complementarity was found between window and aerial traps. However, in order to optimize the completeness of the inventory, neither of the systems should be discarded. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the three types of capture devices used in this piece of research was on the whole rather low, since for the vast majority of species, a significant low number of specimens were captured. Poor trapping performance implies a low impact on the populations of the sampled species, and this is an important advantage in terms of conservation. Finally, this thesis gives some recommendations with regard to the management of each of those four forests, leading to preserve and improve the habitats of the saproxylic wildlife and so ensure the maintenance and growth of their communities.

Deforestación y Pérdida de hábitat en Bosques de montaña en la Cuenca alta del Río Zamora (Loja, Ecuador)

Los bosques húmedos de montaña se encuentran reconocidos como uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados en el mundo, llegando inclusive a ser considerado como un “hotspot” por su alta diversidad y endemismo. La acelerada pérdida de cobertura vegetal de estos bosques ha ocasionado que, en la actualidad, se encuentren restringidos a una pequeña fracción de su área de distribución histórica. Pese a esto, los estudios realizados sobre cual es efecto de la deforestación, fragmentación, cambios de uso de suelo y su efecto en las comunidades de plantas presentes en este tipo de vegetación aún son muy escuetos, en comparación a los realizados con sus similares amazónicos. En este trabajo, el cual se encuentra dividido en seis capítulos, abordaremos los siguientes objetivos: a) Comprender cuál es la dinámica que han seguido los diferentes tipos de bosques montanos andinos de la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador durante entre 1976 y 2002. b) Proveer de evidencia de las tasas de deforestación y fragmentación de todos los tipos diferentes de bosques montanos andinos presentes en la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador entre 1976 y 2002. c) Determinar qué factores inducen a la fragmentación de bosques de montaña en la cuenca alta del río Zamora entre 1976 y 2002. d) Determinar cuáles son y cómo afectan los factores ambientales y socioeconómicos a la dinámica de la deforestación y regeneración (pérdida y recuperación del hábitat) sufrida por los bosques de montaña dentro de la zona de estudio y e) Determinar si la deforestación y fragmentación actúan sobre la diversidad y estructura de las comunidades de tres tipos de organismos (comunidades de árboles, comunidades de líquenes epífitos y comunidades de hepáticas epífitas). Este estudio se centró en el cuenca alta del río Zamora, localizada al sur de Ecuador entre las coordenadas 3º 00´ 53” a 4º 20´ 24.65” de latitud sur y 79º 49´58” a 78º 35´ 38” de longitud oeste, que cubre alrededor de 4300 km2 de territorio situado entre las capitales de las provincias de Loja y Zamora-Chinchipe. Con objeto de predecir la dinámica futura de la deforestación en la región de Loja y cómo se verán afectados los diferentes tipos de hábitat, así como para detectar los factores que más influyen en dicha dinámica, se han construido modelos basados en la historia de la deforestación derivados de fotografías aéreas e imágenes satelitales de tres fechas (1976, 1989 y 2002). La cuantificación de la deforestación se realizó mediante la tasa de interés compuesto y para la caracterización de la configuración espacial de los fragmentos de bosque nativo se calcularon índices de paisaje los cuales fueron calculados utilizando el programa Fragstats 3.3. Se ha clasificado el recubrimiento del terreno en forestal y no forestal y se ha modelado su evolución temporal con Modelos Lineales Generalizados Mixtos (GLMM), empleando como variables explicativas tanto variables ambientales espacialmente explícitas (altitud, orientación, pendiente, etc) como antrópicas (distancia a zonas urbanizadas, deforestadas, caminos, entre otras). Para medir el efecto de la deforestación sobre las comunidades modelo (de árboles, líquenes y hepáticas) se monitorearon 11 fragmentos de vegetación de distinto tamaño: dos fragmentos de más de cien hectáreas, tres fragmentos de entre diez y noventa ha y seis fragmentos de menos de diez hectáreas. En ellos se instalaron un total de 38 transectos y 113 cuadrantes de 20 x 20 m a distancias que se alejaban progresivamente del borde en 10, 40 y 80 m. Nuestros resultados muestran una tasa media anual de deforestación del 1,16% para todo el período de estudio, que el tipo de vegetación que más alta tasa de destrucción ha sufrido, es el páramo herbáceo, con un 2,45% anual. El análisis de los patrones de fragmentación determinó un aumento en 2002 de más del doble de fragmentos presentes en 1976, lo cual se repite en el análisis del índice de densidad promedio. El índice de proximidad media entre fragmentos muestra una reducción progresiva de la continuidad de las áreas forestadas. Si bien las formas de los fragmentos se han mantenido bastante similares a lo largo del período de estudio, la conectividad entre estos ha disminuido en un 84%. Por otro lado, de nuestros análisis se desprende que las zonas con mayor probabilidad de deforestarse son aquellas que están cercanas a zonas previamente deforestadas; la cercanía a las vías también influye significativamente en la deforestación, causando un efecto directo en la composición y estructura de las comunidades estudiadas, que en el caso de los árboles viene mediado por el tamaño del fragmento y en el caso del componente epífito (hepáticas y líquenes), viene mediado tanto por el tamaño del fragmento como por la distancia al borde del mismo. Se concluye la posibilidad de que, de mantenerse esta tendencia, este tipo de bosques desaparecerá en corto tiempo y los servicios ecosistémicos que prestan, se verán seriamente comprometidos. ABSTRACT Mountain rainforests are recognized as one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and have even come to be considered as a “hotspot” due to their high degree of diversity and endemism. The accelerated loss of plant cover of these forests has caused them to be restricted today to a small fraction of their area of historic distribution. In spite of this, studies done on the effect of deforestation, fragmentation, changes in soil use and their effect on the plant communities present in this type of vegetation are very brief compared to those done on their analogues in the Amazon region. In this study, which is divided into six chapters, we will address the following objectives: a) To understand what the dynamic followed by the different types of Andean mountain forests in the Zamora River watershed of southern Ecuador has been between 1976 and 2002. b) To provide evidence of the rates of deforestation and fragmentation of all the different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. c) To determine the factors that induces fragmentation of all different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. d) To determine what the environmental and anthropogenic factors are driving the dynamic of deforestation and regeneration (loss and recuperation of the habitat) suffered by the mountain forests in the area of the study and e) To determine if the deforestation and fragmentation act upon the diversity and structure of three model communities: trees, epiphytic lichens and epiphytic liverworts. This study is centered on the upper Zamora River watershed, located in southern Ecuador between 3º 00´ 53” and 4º 20´ 24.65 south latitude and 79º 49´ 58” to 78º 35´ 38” west longitude, and covers around 4,300 km2 of territory located between Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe provinces. For the purpose of predicting the future dynamic of deforestation in the Loja region and how different types of habitats will be affected, as well as detecting the environmental and socioeconomic factors that influence landscape dynamics, models were constructed based on deforestation history, derived from aerial photographs and satellite images for three dates (1976, 1989 and 2002). Quantifying the deforestation was done using the compound interest rate; to characterize the spatial configuration of fragments of native forest, landscape indices were calculated with Fragstats 3.3 program. Land cover was classified as forested and not forested and its evolution over time was modeled with Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM), using spatially explicit environmental variables (altitude, orientation, slope, etc.) as well as anthropic variables (distance to urbanized, deforested areas and roads, among others) as explanatory variables. To measure the effects of fragmentation on three types of model communities (forest trees and epiphytic lichen and liverworts), 11 vegetation fragments of different sizes were monitored: two fragments of more than one hundred hectares, three fragments of between ten and ninety ha and six fragments of fewer than ten hectares . In these fragments, a total of 38 transects and 113 20 x 20 m quadrats were installed at distances that progressively moved away from the edge of the fragment by 10, 40 and 80 m. Our results show an average annual rate of deforestation of 1.16% for the entire period of the study, and that the type of vegetation that suffered the highest rate of destruction was grassy paramo, with an annual rate of 2.45%. The analysis of fragmentation patterns determined the number of fragments in 2002 more than doubled the number of fragments present in 1976, and the same occurred for the average density index. The variation of the average proximity index among fragments showed a progressive reduction of the continuity of forested areas. Although fragment shapes have remained quite similar over the period of the study, connectivity among them has diminished by 84%. On the other hand, it emerged from our analysis that the areas of greatest probability of deforestation were those that are close to previously deforested areas; proximity to roads also significantly favored the deforestation causing a direct effect on the composition of our model communities, that in the case of forest trees is determined by the size of the fragment, and in the case of the epiphyte communities (liverworts and lichens), is determined, by the size of the fragment as well as the distance to edge. A subject under discussion is the possibility that if this tendency continues, this type of forest will disappear in a short time, and the ecological services it provides, will be seriously endangered.