Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A unified framework of trade in value added : physical, monetary, exchange rates, and GHG emissions

Koopman et al. (2014) developed a method to consistently decompose gross exports in value-added terms that accommodate infinite repercussions of international and inter-sector transactions. This provides a better understanding of trade in value added in global value chains than does the conventional gross exports method, which is affected by double-counting problems. However, the new framework is based on monetary input--output (IO) tables and cannot distinguish prices from quantities; thus, it is unable to consider financial adjustments through the exchange market. In this paper, we propose a framework based on a physical IO system, characterized by its linear programming equivalent that can clarify the various complexities relevant to the existing indicators and is proved to be consistent with Koopman's results when the physical decompositions are evaluated in monetary terms. While international monetary tables are typically described in current U.S. dollars, the physical framework can elucidate the impact of price adjustments through the exchange market. An iterative procedure to calculate the exchange rates is proposed, and we also show that the physical framework is also convenient for considering indicators associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Globalization and loss of autonomy by the fiscal, banking and monetary authorities

Includes bibliography

Genre et pouvoir : relation entre danseurs nus et clientèle féminine et masculine

L’objectif de ce mémoire est de comprendre l’influence du genre sur le rapport de force entre les danseurs nus et leur clientèle féminine et masculine. Depuis les années 1960, les bars de danseuses nues abondent à Montréal. De nombreuses recherches ont été menées à ce sujet, mais très peu concernent directement leurs homologues masculins, les bars de danseurs nus pour hommes et pour femmes. Notre mémoire analyse la relation de pouvoir entre les danseurs nus et leur clientèle féminine et masculine au 281 et au Stock bar. S’appuyant sur la littérature des bars de danseuSEs nuEs, nous étudions les quatre dimensions de la relation de pouvoir : l’influence des lieux sur les interactions, la liaison physique et sexuelle, l’échange marchand ainsi que le lien émotif. Pour répondre à notre question de recherche, nous avons effectué plusieurs séances d’observation non-dévoilée au 281 et au Stock bar. Afin d’analyser les données que nous avons recueillies, nous utilisons les théories de Judith Butler et la sociologie goffmanienne. Le concept de phallus de Butler nous permet de repérer qui domine en « ayant » le phallus et qui est dominé en « étant » le phallus. Nous concluons que les femmes sont, à quelques exceptions près, toujours celles qui « sont » le phallus pour les hommes danseurs et animateurs qui le « possèdent ». La structuration des soirées, établie selon le modèle hétérosexuel binaire prépondérant, rend très difficile pour elles de s’en emparer. En ce qui concerne le rapport entre les hommes danseurs et clients dans un contexte homosexuel, ce sont les danseurs qui « sont » le phallus pour les hommes clients qui l’« ont ». Leur relation est très similaire à celle que nous pouvons observer dans les bars de danseuses nues entre ces dernières et leur clientèle masculine. « Être » le phallus signifie que les danseuSEs nuEs ont le pouvoir de reconnaître ou non le phallus à l’homme client afin qu’il puisse (ou non) matérialiser son pouvoir masculin en subvenant à leurs besoins et en étant désirable à leurs yeux. Dans tous les cas, les danseurs nus font un travail émotionnel différent selon le genre des clientEs, rehaussant le statut social des hommes et diminuant celui des femmes.

Enjeux économiques et éthiques de la mesure du travail non rémunéré des femmes

A large part of the work done by women is not counted in the gross national product (GDP) of nations. Which type of work are we referring to? Unpaid work; also commonly called domestic work. Because all the services produced by households for their own consumption are not subject to monetary exchange, they are excluded from de production boundary defined by the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA). In doing so, this key statistics, inspired by the Keynesian school of thoughts, shows an accepted iniquity in the quantification of the product since women’s productive contribution within the households is not taken into account. In other words, national accounts are not gender neutral. In fact, this breach of a fundamental ethical rule which is equity towards gender inequalities is just the reflection of a social conception that prevails within the SNA since its creation, namely that domestic work is not considered as work. It is therefore essential to quantify women’s unpaid work, a concern that has long been the preserve of feminist activists even though; this should go beyond feminists considerations. This article shows how the issue of measuring unpaid work on a broader prospective is relevant on both ethical and economic fronts. The recognition of this production factor as a macroeconomic variable is indeed fundamental to get a more complete understanding and assessment of the economy. Valorization of unpaid work would also allow women to claim better retribution, or at least, to expect an effective social recognition of their actions and efforts and in the end would contribute to the establishment of greater social justice.

Afghanistan? Somewhere west of India isn't it?

For more than 10 years the senior co-author has been regularly testing tertiary journalism students on their "News Geography" - the ability to accurately locate on a world map 10 countries that had been in the news at the time, or with which Australia has or has had a bond. His co-author joined him in 1997 to compare results from two universities, Charles Sturt and Western Sydney. They joined forces again in 2002 to compare the geographic knowledge of first-year journalism students at Queensland University of Technology with that of senior students at the University of Queensland. The most surprising result was that despite "The War on Terror", and Australia's involvement, relatively few could accurately locate Afghanistan. For several years the senior co-author has also tested first-year journalism students' knowledge of a series of figures and statistics that give a barometer of the Australian and world economies. The latest monetary exchange rates, gold and oil prices and national and state unemployment rates are used to test students' knowledge of the various statistics journalists regularly rely on as indicators of economic movements. The authors also combined in 2002 to test students at QUT and UQ on this knowledge.

A new poolability test for cointegrated panels

This paper proposes a new test of the null hypothesis that the parameters in a cointegrated panel data regression are equal across the cross-section. The asymptotic distribution of the new test statistic is derived and simulation results are provided to suggest that it performs very well in small samples. An empirical application to the monetary exchange rate model is also provided.

Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation

In this paper we measure the effect of the inflation tax on economic activity and welfare within a controlled setting.To do so,we develop a model of price posting and monetary exchange with inflation and finite populations.The model,which provides a game–theoreticfoundation to Rocheteau and Wright(2005)'s competitive search monetary equilibrium, is used to derive theoretical propositions regarding the effects of inflation in thisenvironment, which we test with a laboratory experiment that closely implements the theoretical framework.We find that the inflation tax is harmful – with cash holdings, production and welfare all falling as inflation rises – and that its effect is relatively larger at low inflation rates than at higher rates.For instance,for inflation rates between 0%and5%, welfare in the two markets we consider (2[seller] 2[buyer] and 3 2) falls by roughly 1 percent for each percentage–point rise in inflation, compared with 0.4 percent over the range from 5% to 30%.Our findings lead us to conclude that the impact of the inflation tax should not be underestimated, even under low inflation.

Financial crisis and national policy issues: an overview

Includes bibliography

Foreign capital inflows and macroeconomic policies

Includes bibliography

The Central Bank and Chilean macroeconomic policy in the 1990s

Includes bibliography

Updated Economic Overview of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012

Incluye Bibliografía