Artificial pumping errors in the Kool-Parker scaling model of soil moisture hysteresis

Hysteresis models that eliminate the artificial pumping errors associated with the Kool-Parker (KP) soil moisture hysteresis model, such as the Parker-Lenhard (PL) method, can be computationally demanding in unsaturated transport models since they need to retain the wetting-drying history of the system. The pumping errors in these models need to be eliminated for correct simulation of cyclical systems (e.g. transport above a tidally forced watertable, infiltration and redistribution under periodic irrigation) if the soils exhibit significant hysteresis. A modification is made here to the PL method that allows it to be more readily applied to numerical models by eliminating the need to store a large number of soil moisture reversal points. The modified-PL method largely eliminates any artificial pumping error and so essentially retains the accuracy of the original PL approach. The modified-PL method is implemented in HYDRUS-1D (version 2.0), which is then used to simulate cyclic capillary fringe dynamics to show the influence of removing artificial pumping errors and to demonstrate the ease of implementation. Artificial pumping errors are shown to be significant for the soils and system characteristics used here in numerical experiments of transport above a fluctuating watertable. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of syllable structure in aphasic errors:implications for a new model of speech production

Current models of word production assume that words are stored as linear sequences of phonemes which are structured into syllables only at the moment of production. This is because syllable structure is always recoverable from the sequence of phonemes. In contrast, we present theoretical and empirical evidence that syllable structure is lexically represented. Storing syllable structure would have the advantage of making representations more stable and resistant to damage. On the other hand, re-syllabifications affect only a minimal part of phonological representations and occur only in some languages and depending on speech register. Evidence for these claims comes from analyses of aphasic errors which not only respect phonotactic constraints, but also avoid transformations which move the syllabic structure of the word further away from the original structure, even when equating for segmental complexity. This is true across tasks, types of errors, and, crucially, types of patients. The same syllabic effects are shown by apraxic patients and by phonological patients who have more central difficulties in retrieving phonological representations. If syllable structure was only computed after phoneme retrieval, it would have no way to influence the errors of phonological patients. Our results have implications for psycholinguistic and computational models of language as well as for clinical and educational practices.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Development of a software model of a heavy vehicle suspension for research

A Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension has been developed. The aim of the exercise presented in this paper was to develop a Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension. The objective facilitated by this outcome was the use of a working model of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension that could be used for future research. A working computer model is easier and cheaper to re-configure than a HV axle group installed on a truck; it presents less risk should something go wrong and allows more scope for variation and sensitivity analysis before embarking on further "real-world" testing. Empirical data recorded as the input and output signals of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension were used to develop the parameters for computer simulation of a linear time invariant system described by a second-order differential equation of the form: (i.e. a "2nd-order" system). Using the empirical data as an input to the computer model allowed validation of its output compared with the empirical data. The errors ranged from less than 1% to approximately 3% for any parameter, when comparing like-for-like inputs and outputs. The model is presented along with the results of the validation. This model will be used in future research in the QUT/Main Roads project Heavy vehicle suspensions – testing and analysis, particularly so for a theoretical model of a multi-axle HV suspension with varying values of dynamic load sharing. Allowance will need to be made for the errors noted when using the computer models in this future work.

Prediction model of the buildup of volatile organic compounds on urban roads

A model to predict the buildup of mainly traffic-generated volatile organic compounds or VOCs (toluene, ethylbenzene, ortho-xylene, meta-xylene, and para-xylene) on urban road surfaces is presented. The model required three traffic parameters, namely average daily traffic (ADT), volume to capacity ratio (V/C), and surface texture depth (STD), and two chemical parameters, namely total suspended solid (TSS) and total organic carbon (TOC), as predictor variables. Principal component analysis and two phase factor analysis were performed to characterize the model calibration parameters. Traffic congestion was found to be the underlying cause of traffic-related VOC buildup on urban roads. The model calibration was optimized using orthogonal experimental design. Partial least squares regression was used for model prediction. It was found that a better optimized orthogonal design could be achieved by including the latent factors of the data matrix into the design. The model performed fairly accurately for three different land uses as well as five different particle size fractions. The relative prediction errors were 10–40% for the different size fractions and 28–40% for the different land uses while the coefficients of variation of the predicted intersite VOC concentrations were in the range of 25–45% for the different size fractions. Considering the sizes of the data matrices, these coefficients of variation were within the acceptable interlaboratory range for analytes at ppb concentration levels.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

A model of driver steering control incorporating the driver's sensing of steering torque

Steering feel, or steering torque feedback, is widely regarded as an important aspect of the handling quality of a vehicle. Despite this, there is little theoretical understanding of its role. This paper describes an initial attempt to model the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The path-following control of a nonlinear vehicle model is implemented using a time-varying model predictive controller. A series of Kalman filters are used to represent the driver's ability to generate estimates of the system states from noisy sensory measurements, including the steering torque. It is found that under constant road friction conditions, the steering torque feedback reduces path-following errors provided the friction is sufficiently high to prevent frequent saturation of the tyres. When the driver model is extended to allow identification of, and adaptation to, a varying friction condition, it is found that the steering torque assists in the accurate identification of the friction condition. The simulation results give insight into the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The paper concludes with recommendations for further work. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

A Local Circuit Model of Learned Straitial and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward

Before choosing, it helps to know both the expected value signaled by a predictive cue and the associated uncertainty that the reward will be forthcoming. Recently, Fiorillo et al. (2003) found the dopamine (DA) neurons of the SNc exhibit sustained responses related to the uncertainty that a cure will be followed by reward, in addition to phasic responses related to reward prediction errors (RPEs). This suggests that cue-dependent anticipations of the timing, magnitude, and uncertainty of rewards are learned and reflected in components of the DA signals broadcast by SNc neurons. What is the minimal local circuit model that can explain such multifaceted reward-related learning? A new computational model shows how learned uncertainty responses emerge robustly on single trial along with phasic RPE responses, such that both types of DA responses exhibit the empirically observed dependence on conditional probability, expected value of reward, and time since onset of the reward-predicting cue. The model includes three major pathways for computing: immediate expected values of cures, timed predictions of reward magnitudes (and RPEs), and the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The first two model pathways refine those previously modeled by Brown et al. (1999). A third, newly modeled, pathway is formed by medium spiny projection neurons (MSPNs) of the matrix compartment of the striatum, whose axons co-release GABA and a neuropeptide, substance P, both at synapses with GABAergic neurons in the SNr and with the dendrites (in SNr) of DA neurons whose somas are in ventral SNc. Co-release enables efficient computation of sustained DA uncertainty responses that are a non-monotonic function of the conditonal probability that a reward will follow the cue. The new model's incorporation of a striatal microcircuit allowed it to reveals that variability in striatal cholinergic transmission can explain observed difference, between monkeys, in the amplitutude of the non-monotonic uncertainty function. Involvement of matriceal MSPNs and striatal cholinergic transmission implpies a relation between uncertainty in the cue-reward contigency and action-selection functions of the basal ganglia. The model synthesizes anatomical, electrophysiological and behavioral data regarding the midbrain DA system in a novel way, by relating the ability to compute uncertainty, in parallel with other aspects of reward contingencies, to the unique distribution of SP inputs in ventral SN.

Telescoping is not time compression: a model of the dating of autobiographical events.

A model of telescoping is proposed that assumes no systematic errors in dating. Rather, the overestimation of recent occurrences of events is based on the combination of three factors: (1) Retention is greater for recent events; (2) errors in dating, though unbiased, increase linearly with the time since the dated event; and (3) intrusions often occur from events outside the period being asked about, but such intrusions do not come from events that have not yet occurred. In Experiment 1, we found that recall for colloquia fell markedly over a 2-year interval, the magnitude of errors in psychologists' dating of the colloquia increased at a rate of .4 days per day of delay, and the direction of the dating error was toward the middle of the interval. In Experiment 2, the model used the retention function and dating errors from the first study to predict the distribution of the actual dates of colloquia recalled as being within a 5-month period. In Experiment 3, the findings of the first study were replicated with colloquia given by, instead of for, the subjects.

Top-down and Bottom-up influences on ACC activation: Evaluation of a proposed model of the feedback-related negativity

The Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN) is thought to reflect the dopaminergic prediction error signal from the subcortical areas to the ACC (i.e., a bottom-up signal). Two studies were conducted in order to test a new model of FRN generation, which includes direct modulating influences of medial PFC (i.e., top-down signals) on the ACC at the time of the FRN. Study 1 examined the effects of one’s sense of control (top-down) and of informative cues (bottom-up) on the FRN measures. In Study 2, sense of control and instruction-based (top-down) and probability-based expectations (bottom-up) were manipulated to test the proposed model. The results suggest that any influences of medial PFC on the activity of the ACC that occur in the context of incentive tasks are not direct. The FRN was shown to be sensitive to salient stimulus characteristics. The results of this dissertation partially support the reinforcement learning theory, in that the FRN is a marker for prediction error signal from subcortical areas. However, the pattern of results outlined here suggests that prediction errors are based on salient stimulus characteristics and are not reward specific. A second goal of this dissertation was to examine whether ACC activity, measured through the FRN, is altered in individuals at-risk for problem-gambling behaviour (PG). Individuals in this group were more sensitive to the valence of the outcome in a gambling task compared to not at-risk individuals, suggesting that gambling contexts increase the sensitivity of the reward system to valence of the outcome in individuals at risk for PG. Furthermore, at-risk participants showed an increased sensitivity to reward characteristics and a decreased response to loss outcomes. This contrasts with those not at risk whose FRNs were sensitive to losses. As the results did not replicate previous research showing attenuated FRNs in pathological gamblers, it is likely that the size and time of the FRN does not change gradually with increasing risk of maladaptive behaviour. Instead, changes in ACC activity reflected by the FRN in general can be observed only after behaviour becomes clinically maladaptive or through comparison between different types of gain/loss outcomes.

Patient-specific anisotropic model of human trunk based on MR data

There are many ways to generate geometrical models for numerical simulation, and most of them start with a segmentation step to extract the boundaries of the regions of interest. This paper presents an algorithm to generate a patient-specific three-dimensional geometric model, based on a tetrahedral mesh, without an initial extraction of contours from the volumetric data. Using the information directly available in the data, such as gray levels, we built a metric to drive a mesh adaptation process. The metric is used to specify the size and orientation of the tetrahedral elements everywhere in the mesh. Our method, which produces anisotropic meshes, gives good results with synthetic and real MRI data. The resulting model quality has been evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively by comparing it with an analytical solution and with a segmentation made by an expert. Results show that our method gives, in 90% of the cases, as good or better meshes as a similar isotropic method, based on the accuracy of the volume reconstruction for a given mesh size. Moreover, a comparison of the Hausdorff distances between adapted meshes of both methods and ground-truth volumes shows that our method decreases reconstruction errors faster. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A high-order arbitrarily unstructured finite-volume model of the global atmosphere: tests solving the shallow-water equations

Simulations of the global atmosphere for weather and climate forecasting require fast and accurate solutions and so operational models use high-order finite differences on regular structured grids. This precludes the use of local refinement; techniques allowing local refinement are either expensive (eg. high-order finite element techniques) or have reduced accuracy at changes in resolution (eg. unstructured finite-volume with linear differencing). We present solutions of the shallow-water equations for westerly flow over a mid-latitude mountain from a finite-volume model written using OpenFOAM. A second/third-order accurate differencing scheme is applied on arbitrarily unstructured meshes made up of various shapes and refinement patterns. The results are as accurate as equivalent resolution spectral methods. Using lower order differencing reduces accuracy at a refinement pattern which allows errors from refinement of the mountain to accumulate and reduces the global accuracy over a 15 day simulation. We have therefore introduced a scheme which fits a 2D cubic polynomial approximately on a stencil around each cell. Using this scheme means that refinement of the mountain improves the accuracy after a 15 day simulation. This is a more severe test of local mesh refinement for global simulations than has been presented but a realistic test if these techniques are to be used operationally. These efficient, high-order schemes may make it possible for local mesh refinement to be used by weather and climate forecast models.