An examination of the complementary volume–volatility information theories

The volume–volatility relationship during the dissemination stages of information flow is examined by analyzing various theories relating volume and volatility as complementary rather than competing models. The mixture of distributions hypothesis, sequential arrival of information hypothesis, the dispersion of beliefs hypothesis, and the noise trader hypothesis all add to the understanding of how volume and volatility interact for different types of futures traders. An integrated picture of the volume–volatility relationship is provided by investigating the dynamic linear and nonlinear associations between volatility and the volume of informed (institutional) and uninformed (the general public) traders. In particular, the trading behavior explanation for the persistence of futures volatility, the effect of the timing of private information arrival, and the response of institutional traders to excess noise trading risk is examined

Equity trading volume and volatility: Latent information arrivals and common long-run dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate "news"-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

The Out-of-India hypothesis: What do molecules suggest?

The remarkable geological and evolutionary history of peninsular India has generated much interest in the patterns and processes that might have shaped the current distributions of its endemic biota. In this regard the Out of India hypothesis, which proposes that rafting peninsular India carried Gondwanan forms to Asia after the break-up of Gondwana super continent, has gained prominence. Here we have reviewed molecular studies undertaken on a range of taxa of supposedly Gondwanan origin to better understand the Out-of-India scenario. This re-evaluation of published molecular studies indicates that there is mounting evidence supporting Out-of-India scenario for various Asian taxa. Nevertheless, in many studies the evidence is inconclusive due to lack of information on the age of relevant nodes. Studies also indicate that not all Gondwanan forms of peninsular India dispersed out of India. Many of these ancient lineages are confined to peninsular India and therefore are relict Gondwanan lineages. Additionally for some taxa an Into India rather than Out-of-India scenario better explains their current distribution. To identify the Out-of-India component of Asian biota it is imperative that we understand the complex biogeographical history of India. To this end, we propose three oversimplified yet explicit phylogenetic predictions. These predictions can be tested through the use of molecular phylogenetic tools in conjunction with palaeontological and geological data.

On Finite Mixture of Pareto and Beta Distnbutions

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Mixture of changing uniaxial micellar forms in lyotropic biaxial nematics

Lyotropic nematics consisting of surfactant-cosurfactant water solutions may present a biaxial phase or direct U(+) <-> U(-) transitions, in different regions of the temperature-relative concentration phase diagram, for different systems and compositions. We propose that these may be related to changes of uniaxial micellar form, which may occur either smoothly or abruptly. Smooth change of cylinder-like into disc-like shapes requires a distribution of Maier-Saupe interaction constants and we consider two limiting cases for the distribution of forms: a single Gaussian and a double Gaussian. Alternatively, an abrupt change of form is described by a discontinuous distribution of interaction constants. Our results show that the dispersive distributions yield a biaxial phase, while an abrupt change of shape leads to coexistence of uniaxial phases. Fitting the theory to the experiment for the ternary system KL/decanol/D2O leads to transition lines in very good agreement with experimental results. In order to rationalise the results of the comparison, we analyse temperature and concentration form dependence, which connects micellar and experimental macroscopic parameters. Physically consistent variations of micellar asymmetry, amphiphile partitioning and volume are obtained. To the best of the authors` knowledge, this is the first truly statistical microscopic approach that is able to model experimentally observed lyotropic biaxial nematic phases.

Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data

Understanding how aquatic species grow is fundamental in fisheries because stock assessment often relies on growth dependent statistical models. Length-frequency-based methods become important when more applicable data for growth model estimation are either not available or very expensive. In this article, we develop a new framework for growth estimation from length-frequency data using a generalized von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) framework that allows for time-dependent covariates to be incorporated. A finite mixture of normal distributions is used to model the length-frequency cohorts of each month with the means constrained to follow a VBGM. The variances of the finite mixture components are constrained to be a function of mean length, reducing the number of parameters and allowing for an estimate of the variance at any length. To optimize the likelihood, we use a minorization–maximization (MM) algorithm with a Nelder–Mead sub-step. This work was motivated by the decline in catches of the blue swimmer crab (BSC) (Portunus armatus) off the east coast of Queensland, Australia. We test the method with a simulation study and then apply it to the BSC fishery data.

The dopamine-mediation of perception hypothesis and the implications for schizophrenia

- Background Following Kapur’s hypothesis [1] that schizophrenia is the intensification of phenomenological experience caused by the upregulation of dopamine, a survey of observed dopamine responses to phenomenal information was conducted. - Method An integrative study. - Results When considered in the light of the ecological theory of perception (ETP) [2] and global workspace theory (GBT) [3] Kapur’s hypothesis makes sense: Both the ETP and the GBT require an agent to attribute salience to perceptual information in order to filter an infinite array of available information and usefully sort information by importance. Dopamine may be the primary agent for this purpose. Thus perception itself is suspected as being a dopamine-mediated, and the symptoms and signs of schizophrenia may therefore be the result of dopamine dysfunction. - Conclusions The application of both ETP and GBT to the dopamine hypothesis gives the hypothesis a much-needed causal mechanism and the confl uence of these theories also provides ETP with a neurological perceptual fi lter. This paper provides a compelling model for schizophrenia; a hypothesis that ties perceptual theory to Kapur ’ s concept of dopamine-mediated salience.

Polyvanadate-stimulated NADH oxidation by plasma membranes-The need for a mixture of deca and meta forms of vanadate

Polyvanadate solutions obtained by extracting vanadium pentoxide with dilute alkali over a period of several hours contained increasing amounts of decavanadate as characterized by NMR and ir spectra. Those solutions having a metavanadate:decavanadate ratio in the range of 1-5 showed maximum stimulation of NADH oxidation by rat liver plasma membranes. Reduction of decavanadate, but not metavanadate, was obtained only in the presence of the plasma membrane enzyme system. High simulation of activity of NADH oxidation was obtained with a mixture of the two forms of vanadate and this further increased on lowering the pH. Addition of increasing concentrations of decavanadate to metavanadate and vice versa increased the stimulatory activity, reaching a maximum when the metavanadate:decavanadate ratio was in the range of 1-5. Increased stimulatory activity can also be obtained by reaching these ratios by conversion of decavanadate to metavanadate by alkaline phosphate degradation, and of metavanadate to decavanadate by acidification. These studies show for the first time that both deca and meta forms of vanadate present in polyvanadate solutions are needed for maximum activity of NADH oxidation.

Modeling transport through an environment crowded by a mixture of obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Many biological environments are crowded by macromolecules, organelles and cells which can impede the transport of other cells and molecules. Previous studies have sought to describe these effects using either random walk models or fractional order diffusion equations. Here we examine the transport of both a single agent and a population of agents through an environment containing obstacles of varying size and shape, whose relative densities are drawn from a specified distribution. Our simulation results for a single agent indicate that smaller obstacles are more effective at retarding transport than larger obstacles; these findings are consistent with our simulations of the collective motion of populations of agents. In an attempt to explore whether these kinds of stochastic random walk simulations can be described using a fractional order diffusion equation framework, we calibrate the solution of such a differential equation to our averaged agent density information. Our approach suggests that these kinds of commonly used differential equation models ought to be used with care since we are unable to match the solution of a fractional order diffusion equation to our data in a consistent fashion over a finite time period.

An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.