Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Misreporting:a glowing report

As a former science writer for several UK national newspapers, I commend Simon Lewis for his balanced and valuable analysis of how to deal with misreporting (Nature 468, 7; 2010). Lewis avoids the common error of assuming that the bylined journalist was responsible for the headline or the final text. As I know all too well, stories can be extensively rewritten without being referred back to the named author. Complaining about this practice is regarded as naive and career-limiting. His experiences show how one can use the rivalries that exist between newspapers to obtain some redress for misreporting. Newspapers delight in reporting egregious examples of misreporting by rivals. Thus, in approaching the UK newspaper The Guardian, Lewis targeted his complaint about the original Sunday Times report perfectly. I am glad that Lewis was able to gain some redress. I am also grateful to him for reminding me how good it is to be out of the newspaper business.

Characterising the extent of misreporting of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes using the Australian Health Survey

BACKGROUND: Measuring and monitoring the true prevalence of risk factors for chronic conditions is essential for evidence-based policy and health service planning. Understanding the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia relies heavily on self-report measures from surveys, such as the triennial National Health Survey. However, international evidence suggests that self-reported data may substantially underestimate actual risk factor prevalence. This study sought to characterise the extent of misreporting in a large, nationally-representative health survey that included objective measures of clinical risk factors for CVD.

METHODS: This study employed a cross-sectional analysis of 7269 adults aged 18 years and over who provided fasting blood samples as part of the 2011-12 Australian Health Survey. Self-reported prevalence of high blood pressure, high cholesterol and diabetes was compared to measured prevalence, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified socio-demographic characteristics associated with underreporting for each risk factor.

RESULTS: Approximately 16 % of the total sample underreported high blood pressure (measured to be at high risk but didn't report a diagnosis), 33 % underreported high cholesterol, and 1.3 % underreported diabetes. Among those measured to be at high risk, 68 % did not report a diagnosis for high blood pressure, nor did 89 % of people with high cholesterol and 29 % of people with high fasting plasma glucose. Younger age was associated with underreporting high blood pressure and high cholesterol, while lower area-level disadvantage and higher income were associated with underreporting diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS: Underreporting has important implications for CVD risk factor surveillance, policy planning and decisions, and clinical best-practice guidelines. This analysis highlights concerns about the reach of primary prevention efforts in certain groups and implications for patients who may be unaware of their disease risk status.

An analysis of ethical issues in using wastewater analysis to monitor illicit drug use

Aims To discuss ethical issues that may arise in using WWA to monitor illicit drug use in the general population and in entertainment precincts, prisons, schools and work-places. Method Review current applications of WWA and identify ethical and social issues that may be raised with current and projected future uses of this method. Results Wastewater analysis (WWA) of drug residues is a promising method of monitoring illicit drug use that may overcome some limitations of other monitoring methods. When used for monitoring purposes in large populations, WWA does not raise major ethical concerns because individuals are not identified and the prospects of harming residents of catchment areas are remote. When WWA is used in smaller catchment areas (entertainment venues, prisons, schools or work-places) their results could, possibly, indirectly affect the occupants adversely. Researchers will need to take care in reporting their results to reduce media misreporting. Fears about possible use of WWA for mass individual surveillance by drug law enforcement officials are unlikely to be realized, but will need to be addressed because they may affect public support adversely for this type of research. Conclusions Using wastewater analysis to monitor illicit drug use in large populations does not raise major ethical concerns, but researchers need to minimize possible adverse consequences in studying smaller populations, such as workers, prisoners and students.

Reference Points Based on Dynamic Optimisation: A Versatil Algorithm for Mixed Fishery Management with Bio-economic Agestructured Models

Single-species management objectives may not be consistent within mixed fisheries. They may lead species to unsafe situations, promote discarding of over-quota and/or misreporting of catches. We provide an algorithm for characterising bio-economic reference points for a mixed fishery as the steady-state solution of a dynamic optimal management problem. The optimisation problem takes into account: i) that species are fishing simultaneously in unselective fishing operations and ii)intertemporal discounting and fleet costs to relate reference points to discounted economic profits along optimal trajectories. We illustrate how the algorithm can be implemented by applying it to the European Northern Stock of Hake (Merluccius merluccius), where fleets also capture Northern megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis) and Northern anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and Lophius budegassa). We find that optimal mixed management leads to a target reference point that is quite similar to the 2/3 of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target. Mixed management is superior to singlespecies management because it leads the fishery to higher discounted profits with higher long-term SSB for all species. We calculate that the losses due to the use of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target in this mixed fishery account for 11.4% of total discounted profits.

Determinants of self-reported smoking and misclassification during pregnancy, and analysis of optimal cut-off points for urinary cotinine: a cross-sectional study

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The estimation and improvement of the selectivity in crustacean and fish trawls

Tese de dout., Ciências e Tecnologias das Pescas, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Univ. do Algarve, 2003

Strategy-proof preference aggregation

An aggregation rule maps each profile of individual strict preference orderings over a set of alternatives into a social ordering over that set. We call such a rule strategyproof if misreporting one’s preference never produces a social ordering that is strictly between the original ordering and one’s own preference. After describing a few examples of manipulable rules, we study in some detail three classes of strategy-proof rules: (i)rules based on a monotonic alteration of the majority relation generated by the preference profile; (ii)rules improving upon a fixed status-quo; and (iii) rules generalizing the Condorcet-Kemeny aggregation method.

Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

Associations between FTO genotype and total energy and macronutrients intake: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Risk variants of the fat-mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have been associated with increased obesity. However, the evidence for associations between FTO genotype and macronutrients intake has not been reviewed systematically. Our aim was to evaluate potential associations between FTO genotype and intakes of total energy, fat, carbohydrate and protein. We undertook a systematic literature search in Medline, Scopus, EMBASE and Cochrane of associations between macronutrients intake and FTO genotype in adults. Beta coefficients and confidence intervals were used for per-allele comparisons. Random-effects models assessed the pooled effect sizes. We identified 56 eligible studies reporting on 213 173 adults. For each copy of the FTO risk allele, individuals reported 6.46 kcal/day (95% CI: 10.76, 2.16) lower total energy intake (P=0.003). Total fat (P=0.028) and protein (P=0.006), but not carbohydrate intakes, were higher in those carrying the FTO risk allele. After adjustment for body weight, total energy intakes remained significantly lower in individuals with the FTO risk genotype (P=0.028). The FTO risk allele is associated with a lower reported total energy intake and with altered patterns of macronutrients intake. Although significant, these differences are small and further research is needed to determine whether the associations are independent of dietary misreporting.

Whatever it takes: rivalry and unethical behavior

This research investigates the link between rivalry and unethical behavior. We propose that people will engage in greater unethical behavior when competing against their rivals than when competing against non-rival competitors. Across a series of experiments and an archival study, we find that rivalry is associated with increased use of deception, unsportsmanlike behavior, willingness to employ unethical negotiation tactics, and misreporting of performance. We also explore the psychological underpinnings of rivalry, which help to illuminate how it differs from general competition, and why it increases unethical behavior. Rivalry as compared to non-rival competition was associated with increased status concerns, contingency of self-worth, and performance goals; mediation analyses revealed that performance goals played the biggest role in explaining why rivalry promoted greater unethicality. Lastly, we find that merely thinking about a rival can be enough to promote greater unethical behavior, even in domains unrelated to the rivalry. These findings highlight the importance of rivalry as a widespread, powerful, yet largely unstudied phenomenon with significant organizational implications. Further, the results help to inform when and why unethical behavior occurs within organizations, and demonstrate that the effects of competition are dependent upon relationships and prior interactions.

Influencing the public and efficiency in bureaucratic provision

In the present paper a public bureau can extract additional budgetary allocations, not only by misreporting its production cost to its oversight committee but also by 'influencing' the perceptions of the public at large. I juxtapose the bureau's ability to influence the public with its ability to misreport to the oversight committee, and find that influencing the public might support an efficient level of production by invoking a separating equilibrium. However, a pooling equilibrium involving either overproduction or underproduction of output cannot be ruled out. Accordingly, overproduction could occur even when the bureau cares only about extracting excess budget and not increasing output per se.

Food patterns associated with blood lipids are predictive of coronary heart disease : the Whitehall II study

Analysis of the epidemiological effects of overall dietary patterns offers an alternative approach to the investigation of the role of diet in CHD. We analysed the role of blood lipid-related dietary patterns using a two-step method to confirm the prospective association of dietary pattern with incident CHD. Analysis is based on 7314 participants of the Whitehall II study. Dietary intake was measured using a 127-item FFQ. Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to derive dietary pattern scores using baseline serum total and HDL-cholesterol, and TAG levels as dependent variables. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to confirm the association between dietary patterns and incident CHD (n 243) over 15 years of follow-up. Increased CHD risk (hazard ratio (HR) for top quartile: 2·01 (95 % CI 1·41, 2·85) adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and energy misreporting) was observed with a diet characterised by high consumption of white bread, fried potatoes, sugar in tea and coffee, burgers and sausages, soft drinks, and low consumption of French dressing and vegetables. The diet-CHD relationship was attenuated after adjustment for employment grade and health behaviours (HR for top quartile: 1·81; 95 % CI 1·26, 2·62), and further adjustment for blood pressure and BMI (HR for top quartile: 1·57; 95 % CI 1·08, 2·27). Dietary patterns are associated with serum lipids and predict CHD risk after adjustment for confounders. RRR identifies dietary patterns using prior knowledge and focuses on the pathways through which diet may influence disease. The present study adds to the evidence that diet is an important risk factor for CHD.

Executive equity risk-taking incentives and audit pricing

Using a large sample of U.S. firms spanning the period 2000-2010, we document a strong positive association between the sensitivity of CEO compensation portfolio to stock return volatility (vega) and audit fees. We also show that the positive association between vega and audit fees is weaker in the post-Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) period. In supplementary tests, we show that the relation between vega and audit fees is stronger for firms with older CEOs and in firms where the CEO is also chairman of the board. Collectively, our results suggest that audit firms incorporate executive risktaking incentives in the fees they charge for their services.