Exogenous shocks and misattribution of responsibility for economic performance: results from survey experiments

Recent models of economic voting assume that citizens can discount exogenous factors when assessing government's economic performance. Yet there is evidence that Latin American voters do not behave in such way, and attribute to presidents outcomes that are beyond their control. This paper presents three survey experiments designed to explore mechanisms that could potentially correct such misattribution, and therefore contribute to debiasing individual behavior towards government evaluation. Our results provide individual-level evidence of the misattribution found in aggregate studies of electorate behavior, and reinforce psychologist's skepticism towards prospects of mental decontamination, as we found very scant evidence that providing information, raising awareness, or increasing motivation to correct biases infuenced individual's evaluation of president's performance.

AGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREVALENCE AND CO-MORBIDITY OF DSM-IV MAJOR DEPRESSIVE EPISODES: RESULTS FROM THE WHO WORLD MENTAL HEALTH SURVEY INITIATIVE

Background: Although depression appears to decrease in late life, this could be due to misattribution of depressive symptoms to physical disorders that increase in late we. Methods: We investigated this issue by studying age differences in co-morbidity of DSM-IV major depressive episodes (MDE) with chronic physical conditions in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys, a series of community epidemiological surveys of respondents in 10 developed countries (n = 52,485) and 8 developing countries (n = 37,265). MDE and other mental disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Organic exclusion rules were not used to avoid inappropriate exclusion of cases with physical co-morbidity. Physical conditions were assessed with a standard chronic conditions checklist. Results: Twelve-month DSM-IV/CIDI MDE was significantly less prevalent among respondents ages 65+ than younger respondents in developed but not developing countries. Prevalence of co-morbid mental disorders generally either decreased or remained stable with age, while co-morbidity of MDE with mental disorders generally increased with age. Prevalence of physical conditions, in comparison, generally increased with age, while co-morbidity of MDE with physical conditions generally decreased with age. Depression treatment was lowest among the elderly in developed and developing countries. Conclusions: The weakening associations between MDE and physical conditions with increasing age argue against the suggestion that the low estimated prevalence of MDE among the elderly is due to increased confounding with physical disorders. Future study is needed to investigate processes that might lead to a decreasing impact of physical illness on depression among the elderly. Depression and Anxiety 27:351-364, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

L'effet de l'orientation envers les buts sur les conflits et les résultats scolaires des étudiantes et étudiants de niveau collégial impliqués dans un projet pédagogique

L’apprentissage par projet est une méthode pédagogique importante dans le réseau des cégeps, particulièrement depuis la Réforme scolaire collégiale de 1993 (Piché & Lapostolle, 2009). Toutefois, la quantité d’études sur les conditions d’efficacité de cette méthode pédagogique, particulièrement les études longitudinales, est limitée dans le milieu collégial. La présente étude analyse le rôle de plusieurs variables issues de la recherche en psychologie organisationnelle. D’abord, on considère le rôle de deux variables de personnalité affectées par la complexité d’une tâche : l’orientation envers les buts (Dweck & Leggett, 1988) et le style de gestion des conflits (Rubin, Pruitt, & Kim, 1994). Deux variables processuelles sont aussi étudiées : les types de conflits (Jehn 1995, 1997) et la proactivité (Griffin, Neale, & Parker, 2007). À l’aide d’analyses de médiation (Preacher & Hayes, 2008), les résultats démontrent que les orientations envers les buts et les styles de gestion des conflits utiles aux tâches complexes le sont également dans un contexte de projet au collégial, favorisant la proactivité des étudiants. Pour les types de conflits, un examen de leur évolution dans le temps permet de conclure à un effet généralement négatif en raison de la forte association entre eux. Une explication possible est la présence de mésattribution (Simons & Peterson, 2000), c’est-à-dire que les conflits reliés à la tâche sont faussement interprétés comme des conflits interpersonnels.

Static and dynamic characteristics of cerebral blood flow during the resting state in schizophrenia

Background: The cerebral network that is active during rest and is deactivated during goal-oriented activity is called the default mode network (DMN). It appears to be involved in self-referential mental activity. Atypical functional connectivity in the DMN has been observed in schizophrenia. One hypothesis suggests that pathologically increased DMN connectivity in schizophrenia is linked with a main symptom of psychosis, namely, misattribution of thoughts. Methods: A resting-state pseudocontinuous arterial spin labeling (ASL) study was conducted to measure absolute cerebral blood flow (CBF) in 34 schizophrenia patients and 27 healthy controls. Using independent component analysis (ICA), the DMN was extracted from ASL data. Mean CBF and DMN connectivity were compared between groups using a 2-sample t test. Results: Schizophrenia patients showed decreased mean CBF in the frontal and temporal regions (P < .001). ICA demonstrated significantly increased DMN connectivity in the precuneus (x/y/z = -16/-64/38) in patients than in controls (P < .001). CBF was not elevated in the respective regions. DMN connectivity in the precuneus was significantly correlated with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores (P < .01). Conclusions: In schizophrenia patients, the posterior hub-which is considered the strongest part of the DMN-showed increased DMN connectivity. We hypothesize that this increase hinders the deactivation of the DMN and, thus, the translation of cognitive processes from an internal to an external focus. This might explain symptoms related to defective self-monitoring, such as auditory verbal hallucinations or ego disturbances.

Measuring citizens' implicit and explicit attitudes towards the European Union

Studies assessing citizens’ attitudes towards Europe have mostly used explicit concepts and measures. However, psychologists have shown that human behaviour is not only determined by explicit attitudes which can be assessed via self-report, but also by implicit attitudes which require indirect measurement. We combine a self-report questionnaire with an implicit Affective Misattribution Procedure for the first time in an online environment to estimate the reliability, validity and predictive power of this implicit measure for the explanation of European Union-skeptical behaviour. Based on a survey with a sample representative for Germany, we found evidence for good reliability and validity of the implicit measure. In addition, the implicit attitude had a significant incremental impact beyond explicit attitudes on citizens’ proneness to engage in EU-skeptical information and voting behaviour.

Quantifying evidence for forensic authorship analysis

The judicial interest in ‘scientific’ evidence has driven recent work to quantify results for forensic linguistic authorship analysis. Through a methodological discussion and a worked example this paper examines the issues which complicate attempts to quantify results in work. The solution suggested to some of the difficulties is a sampling and testing strategy which helps to identify potentially useful, valid and reliable markers of authorship. An important feature of the sampling strategy is that these markers identified as being generally valid and reliable are retested for use in specific authorship analysis cases. The suggested approach for drawing quantified conclusions combines discriminant function analysis and Bayesian likelihood measures. The worked example starts with twenty comparison texts for each of three potential authors and then uses a progressively smaller comparison corpus, reducing to fifteen, ten, five and finally three texts per author. This worked example demonstrates how reducing the amount of data affects the way conclusions can be drawn. With greater numbers of reference texts quantified and safe attributions are shown to be possible, but as the number of reference texts reduces the analysis shows how the conclusion which should be reached is that no attribution can be made. The testing process at no point results in instances of a misattribution.