Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Statistical signal extraction using stable processes

The standard models for statistical signal extraction assume that the signal and noise are generated by linear Gaussian processes. The optimum filter weights for those models are derived using the method of minimum mean square error. In the present work we study the properties of signal extraction models under the assumption that signal/noise are generated by symmetric stable processes. The optimum filter is obtained by the method of minimum dispersion. The performance of the new filter is compared with their Gaussian counterparts by simulation.

Numerical comparison between conventional dispersion compensating fibers and photonic crystal fibers as lumped Raman amplifiers

In this paper we discuss the use of photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) as discrete devices for simultaneous wideband dispersion compensation and Raman amplification. The performance of the PCFs in terms of gain, ripple, optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) and required fiber length for complete dispersion compensation is compared with conventional dispersion compensating fibers (DCFs). The main goal is to determine the minimum PCF loss beyond which its performance surpasses a state-of-the-art DCF and justifies practical use in telecommunication systems. (C) 2009 Optical Society of America

Performance of a reciprocal shaker in mechanical dispersion of soil samples for particle-size analysis

The dispersion of the samples in soil particle-size analysis is a fundamental step, which is commonly achieved with a combination of chemical agents and mechanical agitation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of a low-speed reciprocal shaker for the mechanical dispersion of soil samples of different textural classes. The particle size of 61 soil samples was analyzed in four replications, using the pipette method to determine the clay fraction and sieving to determine coarse, fine and total sand fractions. The silt content was obtained by difference. To evaluate the performance, the results of the reciprocal shaker (RSh) were compared with data of the same soil samples available in reports of the Proficiency testing for Soil Analysis Laboratories of the Agronomic Institute of Campinas (Prolab/IAC). The accuracy was analyzed based on the maximum and minimum values defining the confidence intervals for the particle-size fractions of each soil sample. Graphical indicators were also used for data comparison, based on dispersion and linear adjustment. The descriptive statistics indicated predominantly low variability in more than 90 % of the results for sand, medium-textured and clay samples, and for 68 % of the results for heavy clay samples, indicating satisfactory repeatability of measurements with the RSh. Medium variability was frequently associated with silt, followed by the fine sand fraction. The sensitivity analyses indicated an accuracy of 100 % for the three main separates (total sand, silt and clay), in all 52 samples of the textural classes heavy clay, clay and medium. For the nine sand soil samples, the average accuracy was 85.2 %; highest deviations were observed for the silt fraction. In relation to the linear adjustments, the correlation coefficients of 0.93 (silt) or > 0.93 (total sand and clay), as well as the differences between the angular coefficients and the unit < 0.16, indicated a high correlation between the reference data (Prolab/IAC) and results obtained with the RSh. In conclusion, the mechanical dispersion by the reciprocal shaker of soil samples of different textural classes was satisfactory. The results allowed recommending the use of the equipment at low agitation for particle size- analysis. The advantages of this Brazilian apparatus are its low cost, the possibility to simultaneously analyze a great number of samples using ordinary, easily replaceable glass or plastic bottles.

Design of delay-tolerant linear dispersion codes

In cooperative communication networks, owing to the nodes' arbitrary geographical locations and individual oscillators, the system is fundamentally asynchronous. This will damage some of the key properties of the space-time codes and can lead to substantial performance degradation. In this paper, we study the design of linear dispersion codes (LDCs) for such asynchronous cooperative communication networks. Firstly, the concept of conventional LDCs is extended to the delay-tolerant version and new design criteria are discussed. Then we propose a new design method to yield delay-tolerant LDCs that reach the optimal Jensen's upper bound on ergodic capacity as well as minimum average pairwise error probability. The proposed design employs stochastic gradient algorithm to approach a local optimum. Moreover, it is improved by using simulated annealing type optimization to increase the likelihood of the global optimum. The proposed method allows for flexible number of nodes, receive antennas, modulated symbols and flexible length of codewords. Simulation results confirm the performance of the newly-proposed delay-tolerant LDCs.

An analysis of the accuracy of magnetopause reconnection rate variations deduced from cusp ion dispersion characteristics

We present an analysis of the accuracy of the method introduced by Lockwood et al. (1994) for the determination of the magnetopause reconnection rate from the dispersion of precipitating ions in the ionospheric cusp region. Tests are made by applying the method to synthesised data. The simulated cusp ion precipitation data are produced by an analytic model of the evolution of newly-opened field lines, along which magnetosheath ions are firstly injected across the magnetopause and then dispersed as they propagate into the ionosphere. The rate at which these newly opened field lines are generated by reconnection can be varied. The derived reconnection rate estimates are then compared with the input variation to the model and the accuracy of the method assessed. Results are presented for steady-state reconnection, for continuous reconnection showing a sine-wave variation in rate and for reconnection which only occurs in square wave pulses. It is found that the method always yields the total flux reconnected (per unit length of the open-closed field-line boundary) to within an accuracy of better than 5%, but that pulses tend to be smoothed so that the peak reconnection rate within the pulse is underestimated and the pulse length is overestimated. This smoothing is reduced if the separation between energy channels of the instrument is reduced; however this also acts to increase the experimental uncertainty in the estimates, an effect which can be countered by improving the time resolution of the observations. The limited time resolution of the data is shown to set a minimum reconnection rate below which the method gives spurious short-period oscillations about the true value. Various examples of reconnection rate variations derived from cusp observations are discussed in the light of this analysis.

Paleoamerican Morphology in the Context of European and East Asian Late Pleistocene Variation: Implications for Human Dispersion Into the New World

Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Performance of a reciprocal shaker in mechanical dispersion of soil samples for particle-size analysis

A dispersão da amostra de solo é uma etapa fundamental da análise granulométrica, sendo realizada mediante o uso de dispersantes químicos e agitação mecânica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a eficiência de mesa agitadora reciprocante de baixa rotação na dispersão mecânica de amostras de solos de diferentes classes texturais. Foram realizadas análises granulométricas em 61 amostras com quatro repetições, empregando o método da pipeta para determinação da fração argila e tamisagem para determinação das frações areia grossa, areia fina e areia total, sendo o silte determinado por diferença. Na avaliação de desempenho, os resultados obtidos com uso da mesa agitadora reciprocante (MAR) foram comparados com dados disponíveis para as mesmas amostras oriundos de relatórios do Ensaio de Proficiência IAC para Laboratórios de Análises de Solos - Prolab/IAC. Análises de acurácia foram realizadas com base nos valores dos intervalos de confiança definidos para cada fração granulométrica componente de cada amostra ensaiada. Indicadores gráficos também foram utilizados na comparação de dados, por meio de dispersão e ajuste linear. A estatística descritiva indicou preponderância de baixa variabilidade em mais de 90 % dos resultados obtidos para as amostras de texturas arenosa, média e argilosa e em 68 % dos obtidos para as amostras de textura muito argilosa, indicando boa repetibilidade dos resultados obtidos com a MAR. Média variabilidade foi mais frequentemente associada à fração silte, seguida da fração areia fina. Os resultados das análises de sensibilidade indicam acurácia de 100 % nas três frações granulométricas - areia total, silte e argila - para todas as amostras analisadas pertencentes às classes texturais muito argilosa, argilosa e média. Para as nove amostras de textura arenosa, a acurácia média foi de 85,2 %, e os maiores desvios ocorreram em relação à fração silte. Nas aproximações lineares, coeficientes de correlação igual (silte) ou superiores (areia total e argila) a 0,93, bem como diferenças menores do que 0,16 entre os coeficientes angulares das retas e o valor unitário, indicam alta correlação entre os resultados de referência (Prolab/IAC) e os obtidos nos ensaios com a MAR. Conclui-se pelo desempenho satisfatório da mesa agitadora reciprocante de baixa rotação para dispersão mecânica de amostras de solo de diferentes classes texturais para fins de análise granulométrica, permitindo recomendar o uso alternativo do equipamento quando se emprega agitação lenta. As vantagens do uso do equipamento nacional incluem o baixo custo, a possibilidade de análise simultânea de grande número de amostras e o uso de frascos comuns, de vidro ou de plástico, baratos e de fácil reposição.

Minimum Evaporation Model of Dermatological Delivery Systems. Lamellar Liquid Crystal Formulations Containing Brazilian Nut (Bertholletia excelsa HBK) Vegetable Oil and Guarana Glycolic Extract

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Quantum entanglement of bound particles under free center of mass dispersion

On the basis of the full analytical solution of the overall unitary dynamics, the time evolution of entanglement is studied in a simple bipartite model system evolving unitarily from a pure initial state. The system consists of two particles in one spatial dimension bound by harmonic forces and having its free center of mass initially localized in space in a minimum uncertainty wavepacket. The existence of such initial states in which the bound particles are not entangled is discussed. Galilean invariance of the system ensures that the dynamics of entanglement between the two particles is independent of the wavepacket mean momentum. In fact, as shown, it is driven by the dispersive center of mass free dynamics, and evolves in a time scale that depends on the interparticle interaction in an essential way.

Dispersion approach to real and virtual Compton scattering

In recent years, new precision experiments have become possible withthe high luminosity accelerator facilities at MAMIand JLab, supplyingphysicists with precision data sets for different hadronic reactions inthe intermediate energy region, such as pion photo- andelectroproduction and real and virtual Compton scattering.By means of the low energy theorem (LET), the global properties of thenucleon (its mass, charge, and magnetic moment) can be separated fromthe effects of the internal structure of the nucleon, which areeffectively described by polarizabilities. Thepolarizabilities quantify the deformation of the charge andmagnetization densities inside the nucleon in an applied quasistaticelectromagnetic field. The present work is dedicated to develop atool for theextraction of the polarizabilities from these precise Compton data withminimum model dependence, making use of the detailed knowledge of pionphotoproduction by means of dispersion relations (DR). Due to thepresence of t-channel poles, the dispersion integrals for two ofthe six Compton amplitudes diverge. Therefore, we have suggested to subtract the s-channel dispersion integrals at zero photon energy($nu=0$). The subtraction functions at $nu=0$ are calculated through DRin the momentum transfer t at fixed $nu=0$, subtracted at t=0. For this calculation, we use the information about the t-channel process, $gammagammatopipito Nbar{N}$. In this way, four of thepolarizabilities can be predicted using the unsubtracted DR in the $s$-channel. The other two, $alpha-beta$ and $gamma_pi$, are free parameters in ourformalism and can be obtained from a fit to the Compton data.We present the results for unpolarized and polarized RCS observables,%in the kinematics of the most recent experiments, and indicate anenhanced sensitivity to the nucleon polarizabilities in theenergy range between pion production threshold and the $Delta(1232)$-resonance.newlineindentFurthermore,we extend the DR formalism to virtual Compton scattering (radiativeelectron scattering off the nucleon), in which the concept of thepolarizabilities is generalized to the case of avirtual initial photon by introducing six generalizedpolarizabilities (GPs). Our formalism provides predictions for the fourspin GPs, while the two scalar GPs $alpha(Q^2)$ and $beta(Q^2)$ have to befitted to the experimental data at each value of $Q^2$.We show that at energies betweenpion threshold and the $Delta(1232)$-resonance position, thesensitivity to the GPs can be increased significantly, as compared tolow energies, where the LEX is applicable. Our DR formalism can be used for analysing VCS experiments over a widerange of energy and virtuality $Q^2$, which allows one to extract theGPs from VCS data in different kinematics with a minimum of model dependence.

An Intercomparison of Modelling Approaches for Simulating the Atmospheric Dispersion of Ammonia Emitted by Agricultural Sources

RESUMEN La dispersión del amoniaco (NH3) emitido por fuentes agrícolas en medias distancias, y su posterior deposición en el suelo y la vegetación, pueden llevar a la degradación de ecosistemas vulnerables y a la acidificación de los suelos. La deposición de NH3 suele ser mayor junto a la fuente emisora, por lo que los impactos negativos de dichas emisiones son generalmente mayores en esas zonas. Bajo la legislación comunitaria, varios estados miembros emplean modelos de dispersión inversa para estimar los impactos de las emisiones en las proximidades de las zonas naturales de especial conservación. Una revisión reciente de métodos para evaluar impactos de NH3 en distancias medias recomendaba la comparación de diferentes modelos para identificar diferencias importantes entre los métodos empleados por los distintos países de la UE. En base a esta recomendación, esta tesis doctoral compara y evalúa las predicciones de las concentraciones atmosféricas de NH3 de varios modelos bajo condiciones, tanto reales como hipotéticas, que plantean un potencial impacto sobre ecosistemas (incluidos aquellos bajo condiciones de clima Mediterráneo). En este sentido, se procedió además a la comparación y evaluación de varias técnicas de modelización inversa para inferir emisiones de NH3. Finalmente, se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático simple para calcular las concentraciones de NH3 y la velocidad de deposición de NH3 en ecosistemas vulnerables cercanos a una fuente emisora. La comparativa de modelos supuso la evaluación de cuatro modelos de dispersión (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 y LADD v2010) en un amplio rango de casos hipotéticos (dispersión de NH3 procedente de distintos tipos de fuentes agrícolas de emisión). La menor diferencia entre las concentraciones medias estimadas por los distintos modelos se obtuvo para escenarios simples. La convergencia entre las predicciones de los modelos fue mínima para el escenario relativo a la dispersión de NH3 procedente de un establo ventilado mecánicamente. En este caso, el modelo ADMS predijo concentraciones significativamente menores que los otros modelos. Una explicación de estas diferencias podríamos encontrarla en la interacción de diferentes “penachos” y “capas límite” durante el proceso de parametrización. Los cuatro modelos de dispersión fueron empleados para dos casos reales de dispersión de NH3: una granja de cerdos en Falster (Dinamarca) y otra en Carolina del Norte (EEUU). Las concentraciones medias anuales estimadas por los modelos fueron similares para el caso americano (emisión de granjas ventiladas de forma natural y balsa de purines). La comparación de las predicciones de los modelos con concentraciones medias anuales medidas in situ, así como la aplicación de los criterios establecidos para la aceptación estadística de los modelos, permitió concluir que los cuatro modelos se comportaron aceptablemente para este escenario. No ocurrió lo mismo en el caso danés (nave ventilada mecánicamente), en donde el modelo LADD no dio buenos resultados debido a la ausencia de procesos de “sobreelevacion de penacho” (plume-rise). Los modelos de dispersión dan a menudo pobres resultados en condiciones de baja velocidad de viento debido a que la teoría de dispersión en la que se basan no es aplicable en estas condiciones. En situaciones de frecuente descenso en la velocidad del viento, la actual guía de modelización propone usar un modelo que sea eficaz bajo dichas condiciones, máxime cuando se realice una valoración que tenga como objeto establecer una política de regularización. Esto puede no ser siempre posible debido a datos meteorológicos insuficientes, en cuyo caso la única opción sería utilizar un modelo más común, como la versión avanzada de los modelos Gausianos ADMS o AERMOD. Con el objetivo de evaluar la idoneidad de estos modelos para condiciones de bajas velocidades de viento, ambos modelos fueron utilizados en un caso con condiciones Mediterráneas. Lo que supone sucesivos periodos de baja velocidad del viento. El estudio se centró en la dispersión de NH3 procedente de una granja de cerdos en Segovia (España central). Para ello la concentración de NH3 media mensual fue medida en 21 localizaciones en torno a la granja. Se realizaron también medidas de concentración de alta resolución en una única localización durante una campaña de una semana. En este caso, se evaluaron dos estrategias para mejorar la respuesta del modelo ante bajas velocidades del viento. La primera se basó en “no zero wind” (NZW), que sustituyó periodos de calma con el mínimo límite de velocidad del viento y “accumulated calm emissions” (ACE), que forzaban al modelo a calcular las emisiones totales en un periodo de calma y la siguiente hora de no-calma. Debido a las importantes incertidumbres en los datos de entrada del modelo (inputs) (tasa de emisión de NH3, velocidad de salida de la fuente, parámetros de la capa límite, etc.), se utilizó el mismo caso para evaluar la incertidumbre en la predicción del modelo y valorar como dicha incertidumbre puede ser considerada en evaluaciones del modelo. Un modelo dinámico de emisión, modificado para el caso de clima Mediterráneo, fue empleado para estimar la variabilidad temporal en las emisiones de NH3. Así mismo, se realizó una comparativa utilizando las emisiones dinámicas y la tasa constante de emisión. La incertidumbre predicha asociada a la incertidumbre de los inputs fue de 67-98% del valor medio para el modelo ADMS y entre 53-83% del valor medio para AERMOD. La mayoría de esta incertidumbre se debió a la incertidumbre del ratio de emisión en la fuente (50%), seguida por la de las condiciones meteorológicas (10-20%) y aquella asociada a las velocidades de salida (5-10%). El modelo AERMOD predijo mayores concentraciones que ADMS y existieron más simulaciones que alcanzaron los criterios de aceptabilidad cuando se compararon las predicciones con las concentraciones medias anuales medidas. Sin embargo, las predicciones del modelo ADMS se correlacionaron espacialmente mejor con las mediciones. El uso de valores dinámicos de emisión estimados mejoró el comportamiento de ADMS, haciendo empeorar el de AERMOD. La aplicación de estrategias destinadas a mejorar el comportamiento de este último tuvo efectos contradictorios similares. Con el objeto de comparar distintas técnicas de modelización inversa, varios modelos (ADMS, LADD y WindTrax) fueron empleados para un caso no agrícola, una colonia de pingüinos en la Antártida. Este caso fue empleado para el estudio debido a que suponía la oportunidad de obtener el primer factor de emisión experimental para una colonia de pingüinos antárticos. Además las condiciones eran propicias desde el punto de vista de la casi total ausencia de concentraciones ambiente (background). Tras el trabajo de modelización existió una concordancia suficiente entre las estimaciones obtenidas por los tres modelos. De este modo se pudo definir un factor de emisión de para la colonia de 1.23 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día (con un rango de incertidumbre de 0.8-2.54 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día). Posteriores aplicaciones de técnicas de modelización inversa para casos agrícolas mostraron también un buen compromiso estadístico entre las emisiones estimadas por los distintos modelos. Con todo ello, es posible concluir que la modelización inversa es una técnica robusta para estimar tasas de emisión de NH3. Modelos de selección (screening) permiten obtener una rápida y aproximada estimación de los impactos medioambientales, siendo una herramienta útil para evaluaciones de impactos en tanto que permite eliminar casos que presentan un riesgo potencial de daño bajo. De esta forma, lo recursos del modelo pueden Resumen (Castellano) destinarse a casos en donde la posibilidad de daño es mayor. El modelo de Cálculo Simple de los Límites de Impacto de Amoniaco (SCAIL) se desarrolló para obtener una estimación de la concentración media de NH3 y de la tasa de deposición seca asociadas a una fuente agrícola. Está técnica de selección, basada en el modelo LADD, fue evaluada y calibrada con diferentes bases de datos y, finalmente, validada utilizando medidas independientes de concentraciones realizadas cerca de las fuentes. En general SCAIL dio buenos resultados de acuerdo a los criterios estadísticos establecidos. Este trabajo ha permitido definir situaciones en las que las concentraciones predichas por modelos de dispersión son similares, frente a otras en las que las predicciones difieren notablemente entre modelos. Algunos modelos nos están diseñados para simular determinados escenarios en tanto que no incluyen procesos relevantes o están más allá de los límites de su aplicabilidad. Un ejemplo es el modelo LADD que no es aplicable en fuentes con velocidad de salida significativa debido a que no incluye una parametrización de sobreelevacion del penacho. La evaluación de un esquema simple combinando la sobreelevacion del penacho y una turbulencia aumentada en la fuente mejoró el comportamiento del modelo. Sin embargo más pruebas son necesarias para avanzar en este sentido. Incluso modelos que son aplicables y que incluyen los procesos relevantes no siempre dan similares predicciones. Siendo las razones de esto aún desconocidas. Por ejemplo, AERMOD predice mayores concentraciones que ADMS para dispersión de NH3 procedente de naves de ganado ventiladas mecánicamente. Existe evidencia que sugiere que el modelo ADMS infraestima concentraciones en estas situaciones debido a un elevado límite de velocidad de viento. Por el contrario, existen evidencias de que AERMOD sobreestima concentraciones debido a sobreestimaciones a bajas Resumen (Castellano) velocidades de viento. Sin embrago, una modificación simple del pre-procesador meteorológico parece mejorar notablemente el comportamiento del modelo. Es de gran importancia que estas diferencias entre las predicciones de los modelos sean consideradas en los procesos de evaluación regulada por los organismos competentes. Esto puede ser realizado mediante la aplicación del modelo más útil para cada caso o, mejor aún, mediante modelos múltiples o híbridos. ABSTRACT Short-range atmospheric dispersion of ammonia (NH3) emitted by agricultural sources and its subsequent deposition to soil and vegetation can lead to the degradation of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. Atmospheric concentrations and dry deposition rates of NH3 are generally highest near the emission source and so environmental impacts to sensitive ecosystems are often largest at these locations. Under European legislation, several member states use short-range atmospheric dispersion models to estimate the impact of ammonia emissions on nearby designated nature conservation sites. A recent review of assessment methods for short-range impacts of NH3 recommended an intercomparison of the different models to identify whether there are notable differences to the assessment approaches used in different European countries. Based on this recommendation, this thesis compares and evaluates the atmospheric concentration predictions of several models used in these impact assessments for various real and hypothetical scenarios, including Mediterranean meteorological conditions. In addition, various inverse dispersion modelling techniques for the estimation of NH3 emissions rates are also compared and evaluated and a simple screening model to calculate the NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate at a sensitive ecosystem located close to an NH3 source was developed. The model intercomparison evaluated four atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 and LADD v2010) for a range of hypothetical case studies representing the atmospheric dispersion from several agricultural NH3 source types. The best agreement between the mean annual concentration predictions of the models was found for simple scenarios with area and volume sources. The agreement between the predictions of the models was worst for the scenario representing the dispersion from a mechanically ventilated livestock house, for which ADMS predicted significantly smaller concentrations than the other models. The reason for these differences appears to be due to the interaction of different plume-rise and boundary layer parameterisations. All four dispersion models were applied to two real case studies of dispersion of NH3 from pig farms in Falster (Denmark) and North Carolina (USA). The mean annual concentration predictions of the models were similar for the USA case study (emissions from naturally ventilated pig houses and a slurry lagoon). The comparison of model predictions with mean annual measured concentrations and the application of established statistical model acceptability criteria concluded that all four models performed acceptably for this case study. This was not the case for the Danish case study (mechanically ventilated pig house) for which the LADD model did not perform acceptably due to the lack of plume-rise processes in the model. Regulatory dispersion models often perform poorly in low wind speed conditions due to the model dispersion theory being inapplicable at low wind speeds. For situations with frequent low wind speed periods, current modelling guidance for regulatory assessments is to use a model that can handle these conditions in an acceptable way. This may not always be possible due to insufficient meteorological data and so the only option may be to carry out the assessment using a more common regulatory model, such as the advanced Gaussian models ADMS or AERMOD. In order to assess the suitability of these models for low wind conditions, they were applied to a Mediterranean case study that included many periods of low wind speed. The case study was the dispersion of NH3 emitted by a pig farm in Segovia, Central Spain, for which mean monthly atmospheric NH3 concentration measurements were made at 21 locations surrounding the farm as well as high-temporal-resolution concentration measurements at one location during a one-week campaign. Two strategies to improve the model performance for low wind speed conditions were tested. These were ‘no zero wind’ (NZW), which replaced calm periods with the minimum threshold wind speed of the model and ‘accumulated calm emissions’ (ACE), which forced the model to emit the total emissions during a calm period during the first subsequent non-calm hour. Due to large uncertainties in the model input data (NH3 emission rates, source exit velocities, boundary layer parameters), the case study was also used to assess model prediction uncertainty and assess how this uncertainty can be taken into account in model evaluations. A dynamic emission model modified for the Mediterranean climate was used to estimate the temporal variability in NH3 emission rates and a comparison was made between the simulations using the dynamic emissions and a constant emission rate. Prediction uncertainty due to model input uncertainty was 67-98% of the mean value for ADMS and between 53-83% of the mean value for AERMOD. Most of this uncertainty was due to source emission rate uncertainty (~50%), followed by uncertainty in the meteorological conditions (~10-20%) and uncertainty in exit velocities (~5-10%). AERMOD predicted higher concentrations than ADMS and more of the simulations met the model acceptability criteria when compared with the annual mean measured concentrations. However, the ADMS predictions were better correlated spatially with the measurements. The use of dynamic emission estimates improved the performance of ADMS but worsened the performance of AERMOD and the application of strategies to improved model performance had similar contradictory effects. In order to compare different inverse modelling techniques, several models (ADMS, LADD and WindTrax) were applied to a non-agricultural case study of a penguin colony in Antarctica. This case study was used since it gave the opportunity to provide the first experimentally-derived emission factor for an Antarctic penguin colony and also had the advantage of negligible background concentrations. There was sufficient agreement between the emission estimates obtained from the three models to define an emission factor for the penguin colony (1.23 g NH3 per breeding pair per day with an uncertainty range of 0.8-2.54 g NH3 per breeding pair per day). This emission estimate compared favourably to the value obtained using a simple micrometeorological technique (aerodynamic gradient) of 0.98 g ammonia per breeding pair per day (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.4 g ammonia per breeding pair per day). Further application of the inverse modelling techniques for a range of agricultural case studies also demonstrated good agreement between the emission estimates. It is concluded, therefore, that inverse dispersion modelling is a robust technique for estimating NH3 emission rates. Screening models that can provide a quick and approximate estimate of environmental impacts are a useful tool for impact assessments because they can be used to filter out cases that potentially have a minimal environmental impact allowing resources to be focussed on more potentially damaging cases. The Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits (SCAIL) model was developed as a screening model to provide an estimate of the mean NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate downwind of an agricultural source. This screening tool, based on the LADD model, was evaluated and calibrated with several experimental datasets and then validated using independent concentration measurements made near sources. Overall SCAIL performed acceptably according to established statistical criteria. This work has identified situations where the concentration predictions of dispersion models are similar and other situations where the predictions are significantly different. Some models are simply not designed to simulate certain scenarios since they do not include the relevant processes or are beyond the limits of their applicability. An example is the LADD model that is not applicable to sources with significant exit velocity since the model does not include a plume-rise parameterisation. The testing of a simple scheme combining a momentum-driven plume rise and increased turbulence at the source improved model performance, but more testing is required. Even models that are applicable and include the relevant process do not always give similar predictions and the reasons for this need to be investigated. AERMOD for example predicts higher concentrations than ADMS for dispersion from mechanically ventilated livestock housing. There is evidence to suggest that ADMS underestimates concentrations in these situations due to a high wind speed threshold. Conversely, there is also evidence that AERMOD overestimates concentrations in these situations due to overestimation at low wind speeds. However, a simple modification to the meteorological pre-processor appears to improve the performance of the model. It is important that these differences between the predictions of these models are taken into account in regulatory assessments. This can be done by applying the most suitable model for the assessment in question or, better still, using multiple or hybrid models.

Pumice rafting and faunal dispersion during 2001-2002 in the Southwest Pacific: record of a dacitic submarine explosive eruption from Tonga

A new influx of sea-rafted pumice reached the eastern coast of Australia in October 2002, approximately 1 year after a felsic, shallow-marine explosive eruption at a previously unknown volcano (0403-091) along the Tofua volcanic arc (Tonga). The eruption produced floating pumice rafts that first became stranded in Fiji in November 2001, approximately I month after the eruption. Strandings of sea-rafted pumice along shorelines have been the only record of products from this submarine explosive eruption at the remote, submerged volcano. Computed drift trajectories of the sea-rafted pumice using numerical models of southwest Pacific surface wind fields and ocean currents indicate two cyclonic systems disturbed the drift of pumice to eastern Australia, as well as the importance of the combined wave and direct wind effect on pumice trajectory. Pumice became stranded along at least two-thirds (>2000 km) of the coastline of eastern Australia, being deposited on beaches during a sustained period of fresh onshore winds. Typical amounts of pumice initially stranded on beaches were 500-4000 individual clasts per in, and a minimum volume estimate of pumice that arrived to eastern Australia is 1.25 x 10(5) m(3). Pumice was beached below maximum tidal/storm surge levels and was quickly reworked back into the ocean, such that the concentration of beached pumice rapidly dissipated within weeks of the initial stranding, and little record of this stranding event now exists. Most stranded pumice clasts ranged in size from 2 to 5 cm in diameter; the largest measured clasts were 10 cm in Australia and 20 cm in Fiji. The pumice has a low phenocryst content (3500 km) and period of pumice floatation (greater than or equal to1 year), confirm the importance of sea-rafted pumice as a long-distance dispersal mechanism for marine organisms including marine pests and harmful invasive species. Billions of individual rafting pumice clasts can be generated in a single small-volume eruption, such as observed here, and the geological implications for the transport of sessile taxa over large distances are significant. An avenue for future research is to examine whether speciation events and volcanicity are linked; the periodic development of globalism for some taxa (e.g., corals, gastropods, bryozoa) may correlate in time and/or space with voluminous silicic igneous events capable of producing >10(6) km(3) of silicic pumice-rich pyroclastic material and emplaced into ocean basins. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilot tone design for dispersion estimation in coherent optical fast OFDM systems

We show that inserting pilot tones with frequency intervals inversely proportional to the subcarrier index exhibits greatly improved dispersion estimation performance when compared to the equal spacing design in optical fast orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (F-OFDM). With the proposed design, a 20-Gbit/s four amplitude shift keying optical F-OFDM system with 840-km transmission without optical dispersion compensation is experimentally demonstrated. It is shown that a single F-OFDM symbol with six pilot tones can achieve near-optimal estimation performance for the 840-km dispersion. This is in contrast to the minimum of ten pilot tones using an equal spacing design with either cubic or Fourier-transform-based interpolation. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The structure of the rare-earth phosphate glass(Sm2O3)0.205(P2O5)0.795 studied by anomalous dispersion neutron diffraction

The role of the Sm3+ ions in the structure of vitreous Sm2O3•4P2O5 has been investigated using the neutron diffraction anomalous dispersion technique, which employs the wavelength dependence of the real and imaginary parts of the neutron scattering length close to an absorption resonance. The data described here represent the first successful complete neutron anomalous dispersion study on an amorphous material. This experimental methodology permits one to determine exclusively the closest Sm• •• Sm separation. Knowledge of the R•••R (R = rare-earth) pairwise correlation is key to understanding the optical and magnetic properties of rare-earth phosphate glasses. The anomalous difference correlation function, ΔT''(r), shows a dominant feature pertaining to a Sm•••Sm separation, centred at 4.8 Å. The substantial width and marked asymmetry of this peak indicates that the minimum approach of Sm3+ ions could be as close as 4 Å. Information on other pairwise correlations is also revealed via analysis of T (r) and ΔT (r) correlation functions: Sm3+ ions display an average co-ordination number, n Sm(O), of 7, with a mean Sm–O bond length of 2.375(5) Å whilst the PO4 tetrahedra have a mean P–O bond length of 1.538(2) Å. Second- and third-neighbour correlations are also identified. These results corroborate previous findings. Such consistency lends support to the application of the anomalous dispersion technique to determine separations.