Pseudolikelihood equations for Potts MRF model parameter estimation on higher order neighborhood systems

This letter presents pseudolikelihood equations for the estimation of the Potts Markov random field model parameter on higher order neighborhood systems. The derived equation for second-order systems is a significantly reduced version of a recent result found in the literature (from 67 to 22 terms). Also, with the proposed method, a completely original equation for Potts model parameter estimation in third-order systems was obtained. These equations allow the modeling of less restrictive contextual systems for a large number of applications in a computationally feasible way. Experiments with both simulated and real remote sensing images provided good results.

Chromatic dispersion compensation using full-field maximum-likelihood sequence estimation

We investigate full-field detection-based maximum-likelihood sequence estimation (MLSE) for chromatic dispersion compensation in 10 Gbit/s OOK optical communication systems. Important design criteria are identified to optimize the system performance. It is confirmed that approximately 50% improvement in transmission reach can be achieved compared to conventional direct-detection MLSE at both 4 and 16 states. It is also shown that full-field MLSE is more robust to the noise and the associated noise amplifications in full-field reconstruction, and consequently exhibits better tolerance to nonoptimized system parameters than full-field feedforward equalizer. Experiments over 124 km spans of field-installed single-mode fiber without optical dispersion compensation using full-field MLSE verify the theoretically predicted performance benefits.

ML approaches to channel estimation for pilot-aided multi-rate DS/CDMA systems

This paper analyzes the asymptotic performance of maximum likelihood (ML) channel estimation algorithms in wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) scenarios. We concentrate on systems with periodic spreading sequences (period larger than or equal to the symbol span) where the transmitted signal contains a code division multiplexed pilot for channel estimation purposes. First, the asymptotic covariances of the training-only, semi-blind conditional maximum likelihood (CML) and semi-blind Gaussian maximum likelihood (GML) channelestimators are derived. Then, these formulas are further simplified assuming randomized spreading and training sequences under the approximation of high spreading factors and high number of codes. The results provide a useful tool to describe the performance of the channel estimators as a function of basicsystem parameters such as number of codes, spreading factors, or traffic to training power ratio.

Extending Zelterman’s approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered data

Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Em Estimation of the Offspring Distribution in Mutitype Branching Processes - a Model in Cell Kinetics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60J85, 62P10, 92D25.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Designing a sampling scheme to reveal correlations between weeds and soil properties at multiple spatial scales

Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at different scales, the strength of the relationships between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We have developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to explore scale-dependent relationships between weeds and soil properties. We have validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using REML, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales we optimized the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

Segmentação de dados de perfilamento a laser em áreas urbanas utilizando uma abordagem Bayesiana

In this paper is presented a region-based methodology for Digital Elevation Model segmentation obtained from laser scanning data. The methodology is based on two sequential techniques, i.e., a recursive splitting technique using the quad tree structure followed by a region merging technique using the Markov Random Field model. The recursive splitting technique starts splitting the Digital Elevation Model into homogeneous regions. However, due to slight height differences in the Digital Elevation Model, region fragmentation can be relatively high. In order to minimize the fragmentation, a region merging technique based on the Markov Random Field model is applied to the previously segmented data. The resulting regions are firstly structured by using the so-called Region Adjacency Graph. Each node of the Region Adjacency Graph represents a region of the Digital Elevation Model segmented and two nodes have connectivity between them if corresponding regions share a common boundary. Next it is assumed that the random variable related to each node, follows the Markov Random Field model. This hypothesis allows the derivation of the posteriori probability distribution function whose solution is obtained by the Maximum a Posteriori estimation. Regions presenting high probability of similarity are merged. Experiments carried out with laser scanning data showed that the methodology allows to separate the objects in the Digital Elevation Model with a low amount of fragmentation.

Associação genética entre características da carcaça e carne com características de crescimento em bovinos Nelore

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Effect of nonnormal random components on level and power in group-randomized trials

The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

Distributed collaborative processing in wireless sensor networks with application to target localization and beamforming

Abstract The proliferation of wireless sensor networks and the variety of envisioned applications associated with them has motivated the development of distributed algorithms for collaborative processing over networked systems. One of the applications that has attracted the attention of the researchers is that of target localization where the nodes of the network try to estimate the position of an unknown target that lies within its coverage area. Particularly challenging is the problem of estimating the target’s position when we use received signal strength indicator (RSSI) due to the nonlinear relationship between the measured signal and the true position of the target. Many of the existing approaches suffer either from high computational complexity (e.g., particle filters) or lack of accuracy. Further, many of the proposed solutions are centralized which make their application to a sensor network questionable. Depending on the application at hand and, from a practical perspective it could be convenient to find a balance between localization accuracy and complexity. Into this direction we approach the maximum likelihood location estimation problem by solving a suboptimal (and more tractable) problem. One of the main advantages of the proposed scheme is that it allows for a decentralized implementation using distributed processing tools (e.g., consensus and convex optimization) and therefore, it is very suitable to be implemented in real sensor networks. If further accuracy is needed an additional refinement step could be performed around the found solution. Under the assumption of independent noise among the nodes such local search can be done in a fully distributed way using a distributed version of the Gauss-Newton method based on consensus. Regardless of the underlying application or function of the sensor network it is al¬ways necessary to have a mechanism for data reporting. While some approaches use a special kind of nodes (called sink nodes) for data harvesting and forwarding to the outside world, there are however some scenarios where such an approach is impractical or even impossible to deploy. Further, such sink nodes become a bottleneck in terms of traffic flow and power consumption. To overcome these issues instead of using sink nodes for data reporting one could use collaborative beamforming techniques to forward directly the generated data to a base station or gateway to the outside world. In a dis-tributed environment like a sensor network nodes cooperate in order to form a virtual antenna array that can exploit the benefits of multi-antenna communications. In col-laborative beamforming nodes synchronize their phases in order to add constructively at the receiver. Some of the inconveniences associated with collaborative beamforming techniques is that there is no control over the radiation pattern since it is treated as a random quantity. This may cause interference to other coexisting systems and fast bat-tery depletion at the nodes. Since energy-efficiency is a major design issue we consider the development of a distributed collaborative beamforming scheme that maximizes the network lifetime while meeting some quality of service (QoS) requirement at the re¬ceiver side. Using local information about battery status and channel conditions we find distributed algorithms that converge to the optimal centralized beamformer. While in the first part we consider only battery depletion due to communications beamforming, we extend the model to account for more realistic scenarios by the introduction of an additional random energy consumption. It is shown how the new problem generalizes the original one and under which conditions it is easily solvable. By formulating the problem under the energy-efficiency perspective the network’s lifetime is significantly improved. Resumen La proliferación de las redes inalámbricas de sensores junto con la gran variedad de posi¬bles aplicaciones relacionadas, han motivado el desarrollo de herramientas y algoritmos necesarios para el procesado cooperativo en sistemas distribuidos. Una de las aplicaciones que suscitado mayor interés entre la comunidad científica es la de localization, donde el conjunto de nodos de la red intenta estimar la posición de un blanco localizado dentro de su área de cobertura. El problema de la localization es especialmente desafiante cuando se usan niveles de energía de la seal recibida (RSSI por sus siglas en inglés) como medida para la localization. El principal inconveniente reside en el hecho que el nivel de señal recibida no sigue una relación lineal con la posición del blanco. Muchas de las soluciones actuales al problema de localization usando RSSI se basan en complejos esquemas centralizados como filtros de partículas, mientas que en otras se basan en esquemas mucho más simples pero con menor precisión. Además, en muchos casos las estrategias son centralizadas lo que resulta poco prácticos para su implementación en redes de sensores. Desde un punto de vista práctico y de implementation, es conveniente, para ciertos escenarios y aplicaciones, el desarrollo de alternativas que ofrezcan un compromiso entre complejidad y precisión. En esta línea, en lugar de abordar directamente el problema de la estimación de la posición del blanco bajo el criterio de máxima verosimilitud, proponemos usar una formulación subóptima del problema más manejable analíticamente y que ofrece la ventaja de permitir en¬contrar la solución al problema de localization de una forma totalmente distribuida, convirtiéndola así en una solución atractiva dentro del contexto de redes inalámbricas de sensores. Para ello, se usan herramientas de procesado distribuido como los algorit¬mos de consenso y de optimización convexa en sistemas distribuidos. Para aplicaciones donde se requiera de un mayor grado de precisión se propone una estrategia que con¬siste en la optimización local de la función de verosimilitud entorno a la estimación inicialmente obtenida. Esta optimización se puede realizar de forma descentralizada usando una versión basada en consenso del método de Gauss-Newton siempre y cuando asumamos independencia de los ruidos de medida en los diferentes nodos. Independientemente de la aplicación subyacente de la red de sensores, es necesario tener un mecanismo que permita recopilar los datos provenientes de la red de sensores. Una forma de hacerlo es mediante el uso de uno o varios nodos especiales, llamados nodos “sumidero”, (sink en inglés) que actúen como centros recolectores de información y que estarán equipados con hardware adicional que les permita la interacción con el exterior de la red. La principal desventaja de esta estrategia es que dichos nodos se convierten en cuellos de botella en cuanto a tráfico y capacidad de cálculo. Como alter¬nativa se pueden usar técnicas cooperativas de conformación de haz (beamforming en inglés) de manera que el conjunto de la red puede verse como un único sistema virtual de múltiples antenas y, por tanto, que exploten los beneficios que ofrecen las comu¬nicaciones con múltiples antenas. Para ello, los distintos nodos de la red sincronizan sus transmisiones de manera que se produce una interferencia constructiva en el recep¬tor. No obstante, las actuales técnicas se basan en resultados promedios y asintóticos, cuando el número de nodos es muy grande. Para una configuración específica se pierde el control sobre el diagrama de radiación causando posibles interferencias sobre sis¬temas coexistentes o gastando más potencia de la requerida. La eficiencia energética es una cuestión capital en las redes inalámbricas de sensores ya que los nodos están equipados con baterías. Es por tanto muy importante preservar la batería evitando cambios innecesarios y el consecuente aumento de costes. Bajo estas consideraciones, se propone un esquema de conformación de haz que maximice el tiempo de vida útil de la red, entendiendo como tal el máximo tiempo que la red puede estar operativa garantizando unos requisitos de calidad de servicio (QoS por sus siglas en inglés) que permitan una decodificación fiable de la señal recibida en la estación base. Se proponen además algoritmos distribuidos que convergen a la solución centralizada. Inicialmente se considera que la única causa de consumo energético se debe a las comunicaciones con la estación base. Este modelo de consumo energético es modificado para tener en cuenta otras formas de consumo de energía derivadas de procesos inherentes al funcionamiento de la red como la adquisición y procesado de datos, las comunicaciones locales entre nodos, etc. Dicho consumo adicional de energía se modela como una variable aleatoria en cada nodo. Se cambia por tanto, a un escenario probabilístico que generaliza el caso determinista y se proporcionan condiciones bajo las cuales el problema se puede resolver de forma eficiente. Se demuestra que el tiempo de vida de la red mejora de forma significativa usando el criterio propuesto de eficiencia energética.

Geometry and Optimization of Relative Arbitrage

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel geostatistics for sparse and dense datasets

Very large spatially-referenced datasets, for example, those derived from satellite-based sensors which sample across the globe or large monitoring networks of individual sensors, are becoming increasingly common and more widely available for use in environmental decision making. In large or dense sensor networks, huge quantities of data can be collected over small time periods. In many applications the generation of maps, or predictions at specific locations, from the data in (near) real-time is crucial. Geostatistical operations such as interpolation are vital in this map-generation process and in emergency situations, the resulting predictions need to be available almost instantly, so that decision makers can make informed decisions and define risk and evacuation zones. It is also helpful when analysing data in less time critical applications, for example when interacting directly with the data for exploratory analysis, that the algorithms are responsive within a reasonable time frame. Performing geostatistical analysis on such large spatial datasets can present a number of problems, particularly in the case where maximum likelihood. Although the storage requirements only scale linearly with the number of observations in the dataset, the computational complexity in terms of memory and speed, scale quadratically and cubically respectively. Most modern commodity hardware has at least 2 processor cores if not more. Other mechanisms for allowing parallel computation such as Grid based systems are also becoming increasingly commonly available. However, currently there seems to be little interest in exploiting this extra processing power within the context of geostatistics. In this paper we review the existing parallel approaches for geostatistics. By recognising that diffeerent natural parallelisms exist and can be exploited depending on whether the dataset is sparsely or densely sampled with respect to the range of variation, we introduce two contrasting novel implementations of parallel algorithms based on approximating the data likelihood extending the methods of Vecchia [1988] and Tresp [2000]. Using parallel maximum likelihood variogram estimation and parallel prediction algorithms we show that computational time can be significantly reduced. We demonstrate this with both sparsely sampled data and densely sampled data on a variety of architectures ranging from the common dual core processor, found in many modern desktop computers, to large multi-node super computers. To highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the diffeerent methods we employ synthetic data sets and go on to show how the methods allow maximum likelihood based inference on the exhaustive Walker Lake data set.