Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Diversification events and the effects of mass extinctions on Crocodyliformes evolutionary history

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mass extinctions, galactic orbits in the solar neighborhood and the Sun: a connection?

The orbits of the stars in the disk of the Galaxy, and their passages through the Galactic spiral arms, are a rarely mentioned factor of biosphere stability which might be important for long-term planetary climate evolution, with a possible bearing on mass extinctions. The Sun lies very near the co-rotation radius, where stars revolve around the Galaxy in the same period as the density wave perturbations of the spiral arms. conventional wisdom generally considers that this status makes for few passages through the spiral arms. Controversy still surrounds whether time spent inside or around spiral arms is dangerous to biospheres and conductive to mass extinctions. Possible threats include giant molecular clouds disturbing the Oort comet cloud and provoking heavy bombardment: a higher exposure to cosmic rays near star forming regions triggering increased cloudiness in Earth atmosphere and ice ages; and the desctruction of Earth's ozone layer posed by supernova explosiosn. We present detailed calculations of the history of spiral arm passages for all 212 solar-type stars nearer than 20 parsecs, including the total time spent inside armsin the last 500 Myr, when the spiral arm position can be traced with good accuracy. We found that there is a large diversity of stellar orbits in the solar neighborhood, and the time fraction spent inside spiral arms can vary from a few percent to nearly half the time. The Sun, despite its proximity to the galactic co-rotation radius, has exceptionally low eccentricity and a low vertical velocity component, and therefore spends 30% of its lifetime crossing the spiral arms, more than most nearby stars. We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun's passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.

Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications—often along unexpected trajectories—after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed ≥50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear (“dead clade walking”), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.

Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions

Although mass extinctions probably account for the disappearance of less than 5% of all extinct species, the evolutionary opportunities they have created have had a disproportionate effect on the history of life. Theoretical considerations and simulations have suggested that the empty niches created by a mass extinction should refill rapidly after extinction ameliorates. Under logistic models, this biotic rebound should be exponential, slowing as the environmental carrying capacity is approached. Empirical studies reveal a more complex dynamic, including positive feedback and an exponential growth phase during recoveries. Far from a model of refilling ecospace, mass extinctions appear to cause a collapse of ecospace, which must be rebuilt during recovery. Other generalities include the absence of a clear correlation between the magnitude of extinction and the pace of recovery or the resulting ecological and evolutionary disruption the presence of a survival interval, with few originations, immediately after an extinction and preceding the recovery phase, and the presence of many lineages that persist through an extinction event only to disappear during the subsequent recovery. Several recoveries include numerous missing lineages, groups that are found before the extinction, then latter in the recovery, but are missing during the initial survival–recovery phase. The limited biogeographic studies of recoveries suggest considerable variability between regions.

Mass extinctions and supernova explosions.

In a recent contribution to this journal Ellis and Schramm [Ellis, J. & Schramm, D. N. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 235-238] claim that supernova explosions can cause massive biological extinctions as a result of strongly enhanced stratospheric NOx (NO + NO2) production by accompanying galactic cosmic rays. They suggested that these NOx productions which would last over several centuries and occur once every few hundred million years would result in ozone depletions of about 95%, leading to vastly increased levels of biologically damaging solar ultraviolet radiation. Our detailed model calculations show, however, substantially smaller ozone depletions ranging from at most 60% at high latitudes to below 20% at the equator.

Physiological advantages of dwarfing in surviving extinctions in high-CO2 oceans

Excessive CO2 in the present-day ocean-atmosphere system is causing ocean acidification, and is likely to cause a severe biodiversity decline in the future, mirroring effects in many past mass extinctions. Fossil records demonstrate that organisms surviving such events were often smaller than those before, a phenomenon called the Lilliput effect. Here, we show that two gastropod species adapted to acidified seawater at shallow-water CO2 seeps were smaller than those found in normal pH conditions and had higher mass-specific energy consumption but significantly lower whole-animal metabolic energy demand. These physiological changes allowed the animals to maintain calcification and to partially repair shell dissolution. These observations of the long-term chronic effects of increased CO2 levels forewarn of changes we can expect in marine ecosystems as CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked, and support the hypothesis that ocean acidification contributed to past extinction events. The ability to adapt through dwarfing can confer physiological advantages as the rate of CO2 emissions continues to increase.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Large igneous provinces and silicic large igneous provinces : progress in our understanding over the last 25 years

Large Igneous Provinces are exceptional intraplate igneous events throughout Earth’s history. Their significance and potential global impact is related to the total volume of magma intruded and released during these geologically brief events (peak eruptions are often within 1-5 Myrs duration) where millions to tens of millions of cubic kilometers of magma are produced. In some cases, at least 1% of the Earth’s surface has been directly covered in volcanic rock, being equivalent to the size of small continents with comparable crustal thicknesses. Large Igneous Provinces are thus important, albeit episodic episodes of new crust addition. However, most magmatism is basaltic so that contributions to crustal growth will not always be picked up in zircon geochronology studies that better trace major episodes of extension-related silicic magmatism and the silicic Large Igneous Provinces. Much headway has been made on our understanding of these anomalous igneous events over the last 25 years, driving many new ideas and models. This includes their: 1) global spatial and temporal distribution, with a long-term average of one event approximately every 20 Myrs, but a clear clustering of events at times of supercontinent break-up – Large Igneous Provinces are thus an integral part of the Wilson cycle and are becoming an increasingly important tool in reconnecting dispersed continental fragments; 2) compositional diversity that in part reflects their crustal setting of ocean basins, and continental interiors and margins where in the latter setting, LIP magmatism can be silicicdominant; 3) mineral and energy resources with major PGE and precious metal resources being hosted in these provinces, as well as magmatism impacting on the hydrocarbon potential of volcanic basins and rifted margins through enhancing source rock maturation, providing fluid migration pathways, and trap formation; 4) biospheric, hydrospheric and atmospheric impacts, with Large Igneous Provinces now widely regarded as a key trigger mechanism for mass extinctions, although the exact kill mechanism(s) are still being resolved; 5) role in mantle geodynamics and thermal evolution of the Earth, by potentially recording the transport of material from the lower mantle or core-mantle boundary to the Earth's surface and being a fundamental component in whole mantle convection models; and 6) recognition on the inner planets where the lack of plate tectonics and erosional processes and planetary antiquity means that the very earliest record of LIP events during planetary evolution may be better preserved than on Earth.

Hierarchical random walks in trace fossils and the origin of optimal search behavior

Efficient searching is crucial for timely location of food and other resources. Recent studies show diverse living animals employ a theoretically optimal scale-free random search for sparse resources known as a Lévy walk, but little is known of the origins and evolution of foraging behaviour and the search strategies of extinct organisms. Here we show using simulations of self-avoiding trace fossil trails that randomly introduced strophotaxis (U-turns) – initiated by obstructions such as ¬¬¬self-trail avoidance or innate cueing – leads to random looping patterns with clustering across increasing scales that is consistent with the presence of Lévy walks. This predicts optimal Lévy searches can emerge from simple behaviours observed in fossil trails. We then analysed fossilized trails of benthic marine organisms using a novel path analysis technique and find the first evidence of Lévy-like search strategies in extinct animals. Our results show that simple search behaviours of extinct animals in heterogeneous environments give rise to hierarchically nested Brownian walk clusters that converge to optimal Lévy patterns. Primary productivity collapse and large-scale food scarcity characterising mass extinctions evident in the fossil record may have triggered adaptation of optimal Lévy-like searches. The findings suggest Lévy-like behaviour has been employed by foragers since at least the Eocene but may have a more ancient origin, which could explain recent widespread observations of such patterns among modern taxa.

Patterns of faunal change at an upper Cambrian trilobite extinction event, Nolichucky Formation, Tennessee and Virginia

During the Upper Cambrian there were three mass extinctions, each of which eliminated at least half of the trilobite families living in North American shelf seas. The Nolichucky Formation preserves the record of one of these extinction events at the base of the Steptoean Stage. Sixty-six trilobite collections were made from five sections In Tennessee and Virginia. The lower Steptoean faunas are assigned to one low diversity, Aphelaspis-dominated biofacies, which can be recognized in several other parts of North America. In Tennessee, the underlying upper Marjuman strata contain two higher diversity biofacies, the Coosella-Glaphyraspis Biofacies and the Tricrepicephalus-Norwoodiid Biofacies. At least four different biofacies are present in other parts of North America: the Crepicephalus -Lonchocephalus Biofacies, the Kingstonia Biofacies, the Cedaria Biofacies, and the Uncaspis Biofacies. A new, species-based zonation for the Nolichucky Formation imcludes five zones, three of which are new. These zones are the Crepicephalus Zone, the Coosella perplexa Zone, the Aphelaspis buttsi Zone, the A. walcotti Zone and the A. tarda Zone. The Nolichucky Formation was deposited within a shallow shelf basin and consists largely of subtidal shales with stormgenerated carbonate interbeds. A relative deepening is recorded In the Nolichucky Formation near the extinction, and is indicated In some sections by the appearance of shale-rich, distal storm deposits above a carbonate-rich, more proximal storm deposit sequence. A comparable deepening-upward sequence occurs near the extinction in the Great Basin of southwestern United States and in central Texas, and this suggests a possible eustatic control. In other parts of North America, the extinction IS recorded In a variety of environmental settings that range from near-shore to slope. In shelf environments, there is a marked decrease in diversity, and a sharp reduction in biofacies differentiation. Although extinctions do take place in slope environments, there IS no net reduction in diversity because of the immigration of several new taxa.