Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

A model of market-making

The two essential features of a decentralized economy taken intoaccount are, first, that individual agents need some informationabout other agents in order to meet potential trading partners,which requires some communication or interaction between theseagents, and second, that in general agents will face tradinguncertainty. We consider trade in a homogeneous commodity. Firmsdecide upon their effective supplies, and may create their ownmarkets by sending information signals communicating theirwillingness to sell. Meeting of potential trading partners isarranged in the form of shopping by consumers. The questions to beconsidered are: How do firms compete in such markets? And what arethe properties of an equilibrium? We establish existenceconditions for a symmetric Nash equilibrium in the firms'strategies, and analyze its characteristics. The developedframework appears to lend itself well to study many typicalphenomena of decentralized economies, such as the emergence ofcentral markets, the role of middlemen, and price-making.

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.

Entrepreneurial opportunities, implicit contracts and market making for complex consumer goods

This article extends the theory of entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation, outlining how under certain conditions, opportunity exploitation is dependent on market making innovations. Where adverse selection and moral hazard characterize markets, consumers are likely to withdraw regardless of product quality. In order to overcome consumer resistance, entrepreneurs must signal credible commitments. But because consumers purchase without fully specifying requirements, entrepreneurs' commitments take the partial form of implicit contracts, creating strong mutual commitments to repeated transactions. These commitments enable novel markets to function, but introduce additional costs. This article illustrates the theory with the historic case of Singer in sewing machines

'Doctor, Doctor...' entrepreneurial diagnosis and market making

Doctor-patient jokes are universally popular because of the information asymmetries within the diagnostic relationship. We contend that entrepreneurial diagnosis is present in markets where consumers are unable to diagnose their own problems and, instead, may rely on the entrepreneur to diagnose them. Entrepreneurial diagnosis is a cognitive skill possessed by the entrepreneur. It is an identifiable subset of entrepreneurial judgment and can be modeled – which we attempt to do. In order to overcome the information asymmetries and exploit opportunities, we suggest that entrepreneurs must invest in market making innovations (as distinct from product innovations) such as trustworthy reputations. The diagnostic entrepreneur described in this paper represents a creative response to difficult diagnostic problems and helps to explain the success of many firms whose products are not particularly innovative but which are perceived as offering high standards of service. These firms are trusted not only for their truthfulness about the quality of their product, but for their honesty, confidentiality and understanding in helping customers identify the most appropriate product to their needs.

The civilising tension at the heart of market-making: a case study of the stent industry

We are interested in the emergence of new markets. While the literature contains various perspectives on how such new markets come to be, the dynamics of the marketization process are less clear. This paper focuses on the development of stent technology and examines the activities characteristic of its emerging market. We identify four market ‘moments’: a mutable marketing moment prior to the point of disruption; two parallel moments at the point of disruption – internecine marketing between emergent competitors, and subversive marketing between those competitors and established actors; and finally, a civilized marketing moment. We conclude that emergent competitors operate two distinct strategies at the point of disruption. Also, legal activities are central to marketization dynamics during this period. In terms of process, while creative destruction may broadly describe the move from disruption to acceptance, there is a period of creative construction prior to disruption, when the new market is coming into being.

Imperfect competition and market liquidity with a supply informed trader

We develop a model of insider trading where agents have private information either about liquidation value or about supply and behave strategically to maximize their profits. The supply informed trader plays a dual role in market making and in information revelation. This trader not only reveals a part of the information he owns, but he also induces the other traders to reveal more of their private information. The presence of different types of information decreases market liquidity and induces non-monotonicity of the market indicators with respect to the variance of liquidation value. Replacing the noise introduced by liquidity traders with a random supply also allows us to study the effect the shocks on different components of supply have on prices and quantities.

Market versus limit orders in an imperfectly competitive security

This paper analyzes the choice between limit and market orders in animperfectly competitive noisy rational expectations economy. There is a uniqueinsider, who takes into account the effect their trading has on prices. If theinsider behaves as a price taker, she will choose market orders if her privateinformation is very precise and she will choose limit orders otherwise. On thecontrary, if the insider recognizes and exploits her ability to affect themarket price, her optimal choice is to place limit orders whatever the precisionof her private information.

An Electronic Market-Maker

This paper presents an adaptive learning model for market-making under the reinforcement learning framework. Reinforcement learning is a learning technique in which agents aim to maximize the long-term accumulated rewards. No knowledge of the market environment, such as the order arrival or price process, is assumed. Instead, the agent learns from real-time market experience and develops explicit market-making strategies, achieving multiple objectives including the maximizing of profits and minimization of the bid-ask spread. The simulation results show initial success in bringing learning techniques to building market-making algorithms.

Developments in the Agricultural and Rural Capital Market of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 9, October 2011

The undeveloped rural capital market in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is constrained by an urban–rural development gap, with limited capacities for rural development and imperfections in the rural capital market. Among the most striking hindrances are the illegal status of a large share of agricultural buildings and other real estate in rural areas, particularly on the individual family farms that prevail in the country, and the insufficient knowledge and abilities of individual farmers in applying for credit. National, EU and other donor funds are being used to improve knowledge, skills and other human resources, and to address the illegal status of buildings and facilities. In recent years, government support for agricultural, rural and regional development has been introduced to promote good agricultural practices, production and economic activity in rural areas. The elimination of imperfections and improvements to the functioning of the capital market – making access to credit and funds easier, especially for small-scale family farms and for rural development – are seen as measures contributing to agriculture and more balanced rural and regional development.

The effects of cultural heritage on residential property values: Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal

This paper examines the impact of historic amenities on residential housing prices in the city of Lisbon, Portugal. Our study is directed towards identifying the spatial variation of amenity values for churches, palaces, lithic (stone) architecture and other historic amenities via the housing market, making use of both global and local spatial hedonic models. Our empirical evidence reveals that different types of historic and landmark amenities provide different housing premiums. While having a local non-landmark church within 100 meters increases housing prices by approximately 4.2%, higher concentrations of non-landmark churches within 1000 meters yield negative effects in the order of 0.1% of prices with landmark churches having a greater negative impact around 3.4%. In contrast, higher concentration of both landmark and non-landmark lithic structures positively influence housing prices in the order of 2.9% and 0.7% respectively. Global estimates indicate a negative effect of protected zones, however this significance is lost when accounting for heterogeneity within these areas. We see that the designation of historic zones may counteract negative effects on property values of nearby neglected buildings in historic neighborhoods by setting additional regulations ensuring that dilapidated buildings do not damage the city’s beauty or erode its historic heritage. Further, our results from a geographically weighted regression specification indicate the presence of spatial non-stationarity in the effects of different historic amenities across the city of Lisbon with variation between historic and more modern areas.

Mobile Marketing in Japan

Mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinat ovat vasta rakentumassa ja suurin osa alan toimijoista etenkin Suomessa yrittää vielä löytää rooliaan. Sen sijaan Japanissa sisällöntuotantoliiketoiminta matkapuhelimille kukoistaa ja mobiilimarkkinointi on jo saavuttanut merkittävän aseman mobiili-internetin palvelutarjonnassa. Toisin kuin Suomessa, jossa mobiilimarkkinat ovat vielä lastenkengissä, Japanissa myös mobiilimarkkinoinnin arvoketju on vähitellen muotoutumassa.Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli antaa käsitys Japanin mobiilimarkkinoinnin dynamiikasta ja luoda viitekehys operaattorin tulevalle roolille mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tutkimus on deskriptiivinen ja aineisto on kerätty alan kirjallisuudesta sekä haastattelemalla tärkeitä mobiilimarkkinoiden toimijoita Japanissa. Japanissa operaattoreilla (NTT DoCoMo, J-Phone ja KDDI) on erittäin vahva asema mobiili-internetin ja mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoilla. Ne hallitsevat asiakasrajapintaa, päättävät mobiiliverkon ja matkapuhelimien ominaisuuksista sekä siitä, ketkä sisällöntuottajista pääsevät osaksi heidän laskutusjärjestelmäänsä. Markkinoinnissa operaattoreilla ei ole yhtä näkyvää roolia. Omistussuhteiden kautta ne kuitenkin vaikuttavat lähes koko arvoketjuun. Operaattorit ovat yhdessä Japanin suurimpien mainostoimistojen kanssa luoneet tytäryhtiöitä, jotka hoitavat mainonnan operaattorin mobiiliportaalissa. Japanissa operaattori on ottanut hallitsevan roolin mobiilimarkkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tiivis yhteistyö eri toimijoiden, kuten matkapuhelinvalmistajien, sisällöntuottajien ja mainostoimistojen kanssa, on mahdollistanut kokonaisvaltaisen palvelupaketin tarjoamisen. Palvelupaketti sisältää käyttäjäystävällisen liittymän mobiili-internetiin sekä edulliset puhelimet. Juuri tiivis yhteistyö onkin ollut yksi tärkeimmistä menestystekijöistä Japanin markkinoita rakennettaessa. Mobiilimarkkinoita rakennettaessa operaattorilla on merkittävä rooli markkinoiden muodostajana ja sisällön kokoojana. Operaattorien tulee varautua roskapostin vastaiseen taisteluun, jos sähköpostia annetaan lähettää suoraan matkapuhelimeen. On erityisen tärkeää varmistaa, ettei käyttäjien tarvitse kärsiä roskapostista, muuten suoramarkkinoinnin mahdollisuus matkapuhelimeen menetetään. Ainoastaan aktiivisella edistämisellä ja osallistumisella mobiili-internetin sisällöntuotanto- ja markkinointiliiketoimintaan operaattori voi vahvistaa markkina-asemaansa ja varmistaa osuutensa tulevista markkinoista.

Actualización perfil de mercado de la Unión Europea

El Proyecto Actualización perfil de mercado unión europea, abarca el estudio de los perfiles de mercado de los 28 países (tras la adición de Croacia el 1 de julio del 2013) miembros de la unión europea (EU), que permita desarrollar una guía de análisis de mercado, por producto y por demanda; ayudando a empresarios colombianos e investigadores de mercados a mejorar la toma de decisiones dentro del intercambio comercial bilateral y crear un valor agregado y mayor desarrollo en la industria. Los empresarios colombianos, independientemente de su tamaño (grandes o PYMES) se pueden valer de la información recogida para evaluar su situación actual y la de los países miembros de la UE y formular estrategias de re-diseño o de incursión de mercado, haciendo posible identificar si sus decisiones son correctas y en caso contrario identificar soluciones y posibles cambios. A raíz del aumento de las relaciones comerciales entre Colombia y los diferentes bloques comerciales, es de vital importancia crear herramientas que aumenten las posibilidades de éxito a los empresarios nacionales y mejoren la relación entre ambas partes; en muchos casos los exportadores colombianos cuentan con bastante información acerca de los procesos necesarios para realizar una exportación e inclusive de cuales países son probablemente los más adecuados para llevar el producto; pero no tienen información detallada, por país, región, producto, y el comportamiento comercial de cada uno; objetivo final es eliminar esa incertidumbre y generar un mayor número de procesos de exportación exitosos y sostenibles.

Uso estratégico da tecnologia de informação no agribusiness: modelo conceitual para a gestão de estoques e custos de café por qualidade

Os produtores e as Cooperativas de Produtores de Café atuam em um ambiente incerto e competitivo, e estão enfrentando dificuldades de adaptação ao novo cenário econômico e tecnológico mundial. Para ter sucesso no empreendimento é necessário não apenas saber produzir, mas principalmente saber comercializar o café. O tradicional problema de decisão sobre como determinar o melhor momento de vender o café foi agravado pela globalização econômica (aumento da concorrência e crescente exigência em qualidade) e pelo advento da Tecnologia da Informação - TI - (grande quantidade de informações sobre o mercado de café, obtidas de modo desestruturado e às vezes de idoneidade duvidosa). Para avaliar oportunidades e realidades do uso estratégico da TI para a gestão das cooperativas de cafeicultores, considerou-se neste trabalho um problema específico: a questão do controle de estoques de café e a apuração de seus custos por qualidade. Os modelos gerenciais tradicionalmente utilizados envolvem sistemas convencionais de controle de estoque e análise de custos, mas controlam apenas as quantidades estocadas por tipo de café, não controlando seus custos. Normalmente consideram como custo a média dos preços de compra de café, em um determinado período. Assim impossibilitam o conhecimento do verdadeiro custo do produto vendido de acordo com sua qualidade, comprometendo a apuração de sua real margem de lucro em cada operação de venda. Logo, o resultado real das compras e vendas de café só é conhecido quando analisado um longo período, porque sofre influência das flutuações dos vários tipos de café que são comercializados. Partiu-se da hipótese de que o conhecimento da dinâmica da informação no complexo agroindustrial do café e o uso da Tecnologia de Informação como estratégia para instrumentalizar as decisões e melhorar o desempenho na comercialização de café pelas cooperativas de produtores possibilitam uma melhor organização e avaliação das informações necessárias para o planejamento da comercialização por essas cooperativas, aumentando a rentabilidade e contribuindo para a profissionalização do setor. Utilizando a TI para a integração do sistema de controle de estoques, comercialização e custos, foi desenvolvido um modelo conceitual para o gerenciamento dos estoques e custos de café por qualidade, visando a contribuir para a melhoria dos resultados obtidos pelas cooperativas. O estudo partiu da determinação das variáveis envolvidas no processo de comercialização do café. Desenvolveu-se um modelo conceitual para auxiliar o controle e o conhecimento do real custo do café por qualidade, possibilitando a correta apuração do resultado econômico, contribuindo para melhorar o controle estratégico dos estoques de café e o planejamento operacional do preparo dos blends. Em anexo, apresentam-se planilhas simulando a operação do modelo. O uso deste modelo permite que os administradores se antecipem aos problemas, reduzindo riscos e descobrindo oportunidades através de um melhor uso do recurso informação, gerando ganhos em competitividade. O modelo conceitual apresentado integra a gestão de estoques com o gerenciamento de custos de café por qualidade. Parte de uma visão ampliada da administração da cooperativa, considerando o trabalho dentro e fora da empresa, relacionando os controles de estoques da cooperativa e do cooperado, fisico e "virtual" (estoque do cooperado que EAESP/FGV - COA - Luciel Henrique de Oliveira - 1998 6 foi utilizado) e o mercado consumidor, possibilitando um controle mais eficiente para a redução do risco da cooperativa. O conhecimento das caracteristicas dos tipos de café por qualidade, que compõem o controle de estoque fisico e que fazem flutuar a conta opção, traz maior autonomia e segurança. O modelo atende ao desafio da melhoria contínua da qualidade da gestão, através da visão integrada da empresa, possibilitando o conhecimento real dos custos envolvidos e da margem de lucro, por qualidade, em cada operação. Busca-se um melhor controle das operações, dos custos dos produtos vendidos, de acordo com sua qualidade e sua margem de lucro em cada operação de venda, possibilitando um melhor planejamento da comercialização pelas cooperativas. Ao propor um novo modelo, integrando a análise custos e qualidade, o trabalho provocou o exame de vários procedimentos atualmente em uso, preparando o ambiente da empresa para uma nova mentalidade gerencial. Fez com que procedimentos relacionados à qualidade do café fossem devidamente estruturados no modelo de operação da empresa, servindo de referência para os trabalhos rumo à integração gerencial e à certificação ISO 9002, exigência do mercado externo e tendência no mercado interno. Deste modo, a cooperativa iniciou um processo de melhoria contínua, com a constante identificação de oportunidades, inspecionando e atualizando índices, levantando problemas e propondo soluções. O trabalho traz uma colaboração aos estudos de gestão integrada no agribusiness do café. A inovação ocorre através do desenvolvimento de um modelo conceitual de gestão de estoques e custos por qualidade, aliado ao modelo de gestão econômica, contribuindo para a melhoria da administração e do desempenho do setor. Aponta uma oportunidade de se dar um avanço para a gerência de custos e riscos, tornando o setor mais competitivo e de acordo com a nova cultura empresarial e com os padrões de competição de mercado.