Evidence of market anomalies in the Eurozone: A practical implementation

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance and Financial Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

New findings regarding return autocorrelation anomalies and the importance of non-trading periods

In this paper, differences in return autocorrelation across weekdays havebeen investigated. Our research provides strong evidence of the importanceon non-trading periods, not only weekends and holidays but also overnightclosings, to explain return autocorrelation anomalies. While stock returnsare highly autocorrelated, specially on Mondays, when daily returns arecomputed on a open-to-close basis, they do not exhibit any significantlevel of autocorrelation. Our results are compatible with theinformation processing hypotheses as an explanation of the weekendeffect.

Yrityksen koko ja book-to-market ilmiöt Yhdysvaltojen osakemarkkinoilla

Tämä kandidaatintutkielma käsittelee yrityksen kokoon ja book-to-market arvoon perustuvia anomalioita Yhdysvaltojen osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimuksen kohteena on epänormaalien tuottojen saavuttaminen kyseisten anomalioiden kautta erityisesti finanssikriisin aikana. Osakeportfolioiden analysointi tapahtuu pääasiassa Fama-French kolmifaktorimallin avulla.

Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

A study of behavioral finance: background, theories and application

Behavioral finance, or behavioral economics, consists of a theoretical field of research stating that consequent psychological and behavioral variables are involved in financial activities such as corporate finance and investment decisions (i.e. asset allocation, portfolio management and so on). This field has known an increasing interest from scholar and financial professionals since episodes of multiple speculative bubbles and financial crises. Indeed, practical incoherencies between economic events and traditional neoclassical financial theories had pushed more and more researchers to look for new and broader models and theories. The purpose of this work is to present the field of research, still ill-known by a vast majority. This work is thus a survey that introduces its origins and its main theories, while contrasting them with traditional finance theories still predominant nowadays. The main question guiding this work would be to see if this area of inquiry is able to provide better explanations for real life market phenomenon. For that purpose, the study will present some market anomalies unsolved by traditional theories, which have been recently addressed by behavioral finance researchers. In addition, it presents a practical application of portfolio management, comparing asset allocation under the traditional Markowitz’s approach to the Black-Litterman model, which incorporates some features of behavioral finance.

Efeito dos dias da semana na volatilidade do índice S&P 500: Um estudo empírico

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira,

Anomalias da hipótese de eficiência de mercado: estudo do efeito dia da semana na Bolsa de Valores de Cabo Verde

A eficiência dos mercados tem sido uma questão que tem despertado muito interesse no campo dos investimentos e da investigação financeira durante as últimas décadas, mas nos últimos anos com a intensificação dos estudos e surgimento de evidências da existência de comportamentos anómalos nas rentabilidades dos ativos financeiro, esta teoria passou a ser questionada no meio académico. A discussão do tema é ainda muito polémico, pois existem de um lado os defensores da hipótese de eficiência que defendem que as anomalias identificadas não podem ser generalizadas e não são consistentes ao longo do tempo, e de outro lado os defensores da corrente das finanças comportamentais, segundo os quais as anomalias são provocadas por padrões documentados de comportamento irracional dos investidores, sendo que estes comportamentos são inconsistentes com a teoria de eficiência dos mercados. Entre as anomalias detetadas, destacam-se as anomalias de Calendário, tais como o efeito Janeiro, efeito dia da semana, efeito feriado, entre outros; anomalias na valorização de ativos, tais como o efeito tamanho e outras anomalias de sobre reação. O efeito dia da semana é dos mais persistentes detetados em vários mercados internacionais e tendo em conta este cenário, o objetivo desta dissertação é a verificação da existência das anomalias de calendário, mais precisamente o efeito dia da semana onde se irá analisar o efeito segunda-feira, efeito sexta-feira, o efeito fim-de­ semana. Para esta verificação foram utilizadas as cotações diárias médias do Índice da Bolsa de Valores de Cabo Verde, no período de finais de 2005 a finais de 2008. A análise estatística dos resultados diários indicou que não existem evidências da existência do efeito dia da semana. ABSTRACT: The markets efficiency has been an issue of particular interest in the field of financial investigation in recent decades. However, due to the intensification of the studies and the arise of evidences about the existence of abnormal behaviours on financial assets returns, over the last years, this theory begun to be discussed in academic circles. The debate of this theme is still very controversial, because on one hand there are the defenders of the efficiency hypothesis, who defend that identified anomalies cannot be generalized and are not consistent in the long-term; on the other hand, there are the defenders of behavioral finance tendency, to whom the anomalies are caused by documented patterns about the irrational behaviour of investors. These behaviours are inconsistent with the markets efficient theory. Among the detected anomalies, we highlight the calendar anomalies, such as: the January effect, the day of week effect and holiday effect among others; anomalies over the valuation of assets, such as: the size effect and other anomalies on the reaction. The day of week effect is one of the most persistent effect detected in several international markets, and due to this scenario, the objective of this essay is the finding of calendar abnormalities, namely the day of week effect, where the Monday, the Friday and the weekend effects will be analyzed. For this checking, we used the average daily exchange rates from the prices of the Cape Verde Stock Exchange, for the period from late 2005 to late 2008. The statistical analysis of daily results indicated that there is no evidence of the existence of the day of the week effect.

Market efficiency and calendar anomalies in the Russian stock market

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on tarkastella esiintyykö Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla kalenterianomalioita. Tutkimus keskittyy Halloween-, kuukausi-, kuunvaihde-, viikonpäivä- ja juhlapäiväanomalioiden tarkasteluun. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään RTS (Russian Trading System) indeksiä. Tarkasteluaika alkaa 1. syyskuuta 1995 ja loppuu 31. joulukuuta 2005. Havaintojen kokonaismäärä on 2584. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla esiintyy Halloween-, kuunvaihde- ja viikonpäiväanomalioita. Sen sijaan kuukausi- ja juhlapäiväanomalioita ei tulosten mukaanesiinny Venäjän osakemarkkinoilla. Tulokset osoittavat lisäksi, että suurin osaanomalioista on merkittävämpiä nykyään kuin Venäjän osakemarkkinoiden ensimmäisinä vuosina. Näiden tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että Venäjän osakemarkkinat eivät ole vielä tehokkaat.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Pension plan funding and stock market efficiency

The paper argues that the market signifficantly overvalues firms with severely underfunded pension plans. These companies earn lower stock returns than firms with healthier pension plans for at least five years after the first emergence of the underfunding. The low returns are not explained by risk, price momentum, earnings momentum, or accruals. Further, the evidence suggests that investors do not anticipate the impact of the pension liability on future earnings, and they are surprised when the negative implications of underfunding ultimately materialize. Finally, underfunded firms have poor operating performance, and they earn low returns, although they are value companies.