Problema da falta de vagas em creches: matriz de loops e a priorização de causas de problemas complexos

Dez milhões de crianças brasileiras deveriam frequentar creches, mas apenas 21% delas estão regularmente matriculadas. O problema da falta de vagas em creches foi o cenário escolhido para evidenciar a utilidade do artefato proposto: procedimentos para análise de problemas complexos, composto pela aplicação integrada entre mapa causal e matriz de loops, duas técnicas associadas aos estudos de padrões de cognição nas organizações. O artefato proposto foi testado junto a três municípios brasileiros, segundo os preceitos da abordagem design science. Causas e associações intercausais foram identificadas e priorizadas pela técnica de mapa causal e, posteriormente, interdependências entre causas foram analisadas pela técnica matriz de loops, o que alterou a priorização inicial. Evidenciou-se que para problemas complexos é fundamental identificar e analisar os loops entre loops de amplificação de desvio (loops "explosivos"). Outro resultado a destacar é a melhor compreensão de um problema complexo e socialmente relevante.

Método para gerenciamento de estratégias em ambiente de inovação disruptiva usando sistemas dinâmicos: o caso da implantação do cinema digital no Brasil

Uma das grandes preocupações da academia na área de Estratégia Empresarial é a evolução das teorias das inovações disruptivas versus inovações incrementais. Dentro destas discussões encaixam-se as teorias que estruturam a linha das inovações tecnológicas versus as inovações que alteram os modelos de negócios. Mais complexo é o estudo das inovações que alteram tanto as tecnologias quanto os modelos de negócios não só de algumas empresas, mas de toda uma cadeia produtiva. Esta dissertação propõe um método de antecipação das consequências que sofrerão todos os agentes de uma cadeia produtiva sob efeito de inovações disruptivas. Para lidar com a complexidade desta antevisão usamos o instrumental de sistemas dinâmicos e o pensamento sistêmico. Como estudo de caso, estamos analisamos a implantação do cinema digital no Brasil, a qual afeta toda a cadeia do áudio visual no país. No nosso referencial teórico sobre inovação utilizamos um encadeamento, não totalmente linear cronologicamente, de teorias composto pelos os conceitos de diversificação, descontinuidades tecnológicas, descontinuidades estratégicas, inovações disruptivas, modelos duais, reações organizacionais, organizações ambidestras, verticalização versus integração das cadeias produtivas e harmonização de modelos mentais. A presente dissertação discorre sobre estes fundamentos teóricos e usa o caso da implantação do Cinema Digital no Brasil como verificação empírica. A exibição digital está apresentando indícios de ser uma inovação disruptiva que altera tanto padrões tecnológicos como os modelos de negócios dos exibidores sendo, portanto, um campo adequado de verificação e extensão da teoria. Através do exame das estratégias possíveis das redes de exibidores de cinema no atual momento da digitalização no Brasil mostramos como elas podem vencer mais facilmente os desafios decorrentes do processo, aperfeiçoar os resultados econômicos e financeiros, minimizando o tempo de sua concretização e se tornarem ambidestras isto é, se prepararem para enfrentar um processo no qual muitas outras inovações ainda vão ocorrer estando, no momento, nas suas fases de gestação. A estrutura da dissertação foi construída com um maior detalhamento no início de sua parte metodológica pela utilização do instrumental sistêmico para facilitar o entendimento do projeto. Muita da literatura sobre inovações, descontinuidades e disrupções já se utilizava de uma forma de pensar sistêmica sem colocá-la sob este formato. Quando isto ocorreu de forma significativa em uma teoria importante para os nossos propósitos fizemos sua “tradução” para a simbologia sistêmica. Dentro deste objetivo, fazemos, já no capítulo 3, uma breve explanação sobre a forma de pensar em Sistemas Dinâmicos, a identificação de “loops” causais, de “delays” (atrasos) e das principais mudanças plausíveis ao longo do tempo. A seguir, no capítulo 4 fazemos uma revisão da teoria das inovações disruptivas, e no capítulo 5 mostramos como a implantação do cinema digital se encaixa nesta teoria e de como a cadeia inteira do audiovisual está sendo afetada de forma sistêmica, cuja complexidade pode ser manejada pela construção do mapa causal que relaciona as estratégias de todos os seus agentes ao longo do tempo. Este mapa causal é usado para antecipar comportamentos estratégicos dos componentes da cadeia audiovisual sob ambiente disruptivo. No capítulo 6, como contribuição teórica, propomos que esta forma de organizar a complexidade seja um processo perene a ser utilizado no mapeamento e previsão de outras mudanças em ambientes de inovações disruptivas aceleradas além de elencar recomendações estratégicas para a transformação das cadeias de exibição brasileiras em organizações ambidestras com capacidade de competir eficientemente com as cadeias internacionais que chegaram e ainda estão chegando ao país e que já são responsáveis hoje por aproximadamente 45% da receita de bilheteria de cinema no país. No capítulo 7 mostramos sugestões de aplicação do método a outras cadeias produtivas que estão no meio de processos disruptivos, as vantagens de sua adoção, limitações e aperfeiçoamentos futuros.

Información causal sobre el estigma e intencionalidad de conducta.

1.Realizar una taxonomía de los estigmas. 2. Comprobar si las respuestas afectivas y conductuales hacia las tres categorías de estigmas obtenidos en la primera investigación (taxonomía de estigmas) están determinadas por las atribuciones causales que se dan de los mismos. 3. Estudiar la relación entre información categorial (estereotípica) y la información individualizada (de casos) y su influencia en la elaboración de juicios sobre estigmatizados. . Alumnos de Trabajo Social, Pedagogía, Psicología y Filología de la Universidad de La Laguna. . Características de los estigmas mediante tres grupos de investigaciones. El primer grupo tiene un propósito básicamente taxonómico: se intentó elaborar un mapa completo de estigmas. Se clasificaron los estigmas en tres categorías: socioculturales, físicos y psicológicos. La segunda investigación tiene por objeto determinar qué tienen en común los estigmas. Se utilizaron las seis dimensiones que definen al estigma propuestas por Jones y col. (1984) y se trató de averiguar cómo se distribuyen los estigmas en las mismas. Acoge tres experimentos cuyo objetivo es comprobar si las respuestas afectivas y conductuales hacia las tres categorías de estigmas obtenidas en la primera investigación están determinadas por las atribuciones causales que se dan de los mismos. El propósito del tercer grupo de investigaciones es estudiar la relación entre información categorial (estereotípica) y la información individualizada (de casos) y su influencia en la elaboración de juicios sobre estigmatizados.. Cuestionarios elaborados ad hoc. . 1.Existen grupos de personas que por poseer una señal diferenciadora, son categorizados como estigmatizados. 2. La taxonomía obtenida en este trabajo ha sido empíricamente demostrada. 3. Los hallazgos encontrados permiten constatar que no existen categorías puras, sino un sistema categorial flexible con límites difusos entre las mismas. 4. Se ha comprobado cómo se distribuyen los estigmas seleccionados en las seis dimensiones propuestas por Jones y col. Estas dimensiones también han permitido definir y describir a los estigmas estudiados (enanos, leprosos, esquizofrénicos, depresivos, gitanos y prostituas). Además se obtuvieron nuevas dimensiones que evidencian el carácter diferenciador y complementario de los estigmas. 5. De las tres variables medidas, la aceptación social es en la que los cuatro estigmas físicos (enanos, leprosos, ciegos y jorobados) se diferencian de forma significativa entre ellos. 6. Los resultados no permitieron encontrar ningún efecto significativo del tipo de explicación causal en las reacciones afectivas, conductas de ayuda y conductas de aceptación social hacia los esquizofrénicos, depresivos, dementes y locos. 7. Cuando se contrastan los resultados obtenidos en el grupo experimental (a los que se les da información causal) con los obtenidos en el grupo control (sin información causal) se comprueba que las reacciones afectivas, conductas de ayuda y conductas de aceptación social hacia los gitanos, prostitutas, analfabetos y parados, eran significativamente diferentes en el grupo de control. Sin embargo, tales diferencias disminuían o desaparecían cuando se les proporcionaba a los sujetos información sobre la internalidad vs. externalidad de las dimensiones causales (origen y control de la solución). 8. Podemos afirmar que la información categorial que poseen los sujetos sobre los individuos de distintas categorías estigmatizadas, desempeña un importante papel en la prediccón diferencial de sus conductas, principalmente en los esquizofrénicos y el resto de estigmatizados cuando se presenta aisladamente. Los datos obtenidos no permitieron hallar la escasa influencia de la información categorial en dicha percepción, cuando se presenta conjuntamente con la individualizada de alta y baja diagnosticidad. 9. No se pudo determinar la relación entre la información categorial y la información individualizada. Los resultados obtenidos en el experimento apuntan más hacia una combinación de ambas informaciones que al dominio de una sobre otra. . El estudio de un fenómeno social tan rodeado de implicaciones y aspectos contextuales, socioculturales, políticos, históricos y hasta emocionales, como es el de la estigmación, requiere un proceso de investigación que difícilmente desde una única metodología como es la experimental o la correlacional, proveerían los resultados satisfactorios y útiles sobre todo para una posible aplicación..

Acidentes graves fatais no trabalho de corte mecanizado de cana-de-açucar: o olhar através do método mapa

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Avaliação da aceitação de vinhos brancos varietais brasileiros através de testes sensoriais afetivos e técnica multivariada de mapa de preferência interno

The acceptability of nine commercial brazilian varietal white table wines (Riesling, Chardonnay and Gewürztraminer) was evaluated using sensory affective tests. The samples were assessed by 43 consumers of brazilian white wines using he nine-point structured hedonic scale. Judges were recruited based on their responses to a questionnary about consumer?s behavior towards white wines consumption. Subsequently, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with means comparision (Tukey test) and Internal Analysis of Preference Mapping (MDPREF) were performed on data. Analysis of Variance showed that two samples (a Riesling and a Gewürztraminer, both sweet table wines) had significantly (p < 0.05) higher acceptance means, around 7 in the hedonic scale. The least acceptance means (4,3) was obtained by a demi-sec Chardonnay wine and the other six samples achieved means around 5 in the hedonic scale, all of them either demi-sec or dry table wines. MDPREF confirmed the results showed by ANOVA showing that samples were segmented into two groups of preference. The first group was composed by 86% of consumers who prefered the sweet table wines (higher acceptance), converging to the region on the map where these samples were represented. Only 14% showed preference for the demi-sec and dry table wines, being represented on the region of the MDPREF where these samples were located. This study suggests that sweet table wines are prefered by Brazilian consumers, instead of dry or demi-sec table wines.

Do labor aos mitos: uma nova linha no mapa das pesquisas em Etnomatemática

In this paper we highlight the existence of a new line of research within the Ethnomathematics Program. In its origin, research in this area has sought to contribute to understanding regarding the diversity of mathematical thought through a careful look at work activities. In recent years, however, we have paid increasing attention to the affirmations of anthropologists that myths can be used to understand the most basic questions of human thought as well as specific questions regarding the society that produced them. Based on this idea, the myths of different peoples are perceived as informative with respect to their Ethnomathematics. Thus, together with work activities, myths constitute a source of support on which we draw to develop this line of research.

CMB in a box: Causal structure and the Fourier-Bessel expansion

This paper makes two points. First, we show that the line-of-sight solution to cosmic microwave anisotropies in Fourier space, even though formally defined for arbitrarily large wavelengths, leads to position-space solutions which only depend on the sources of anisotropies inside the past light cone of the observer. This foretold manifestation of causality in position (real) space happens order by order in a series expansion in powers of the visibility gamma = e(-mu), where mu is the optical depth to Thomson scattering. We show that the contributions of order gamma(N) to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are regulated by spacetime window functions which have support only inside the past light cone of the point of observation. Second, we show that the Fourier-Bessel expansion of the physical fields (including the temperature and polarization momenta) is an alternative to the usual Fourier basis as a framework to compute the anisotropies. The viability of the Fourier-Bessel series for treating the CMB is a consequence of the fact that the visibility function becomes exponentially small at redshifts z >> 10(3), effectively cutting off the past light cone and introducing a finite radius inside which initial conditions can affect physical observables measured at our position (x) over right arrow = 0 and time t(0). Hence, for each multipole l there is a discrete tower of momenta k(il) (not a continuum) which can affect physical observables, with the smallest momenta being k(1l) similar to l. The Fourier-Bessel modes take into account precisely the information from the sources of anisotropies that propagates from the initial value surface to the point of observation-no more, no less. We also show that the physical observables (the temperature and polarization maps), and hence the angular power spectra, are unaffected by that choice of basis. This implies that the Fourier-Bessel expansion is the optimal scheme with which one can compute CMB anisotropies.

Development of novel microsatellites from Moniliophthora perniciosa, causal agent of the witches` broom disease of Theobroma cacao

Moniliophthora perniciosa is the causal agent of the witches` broom disease of cacao. Based on available genomic sequences, we identified 30 new microsatellite loci, which were analysed using 50 isolates from four populations sampled over a wide geographical area in Brazil, including three populations from the Amazon, the fungal putative centre of diversity, plus one from Bahia. Nine loci were polymorphic, with an average of 2.9 alleles per locus. The level of polymorphism observed was low, but these markers may allow the evaluation of pathogen diversity and the establishment of molecular standards for isolate fingerprinting to support cacao breeding.

Novel sources of witches` broom resistance (causal agent Moniliophthora perniciosa) from natural populations of Theobroma cacao from the Brazilian Amazon

Witches` broom is a severe disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa. The use of resistant cultivars is the ultimate method of control, but there are limited sources of resistance. Further, resistance from the most widely used source (`Scavina 6`) has been overcome after a few years of deployment. New sources of resistance have been intensively searched for in the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated for witches` broom resistance, cacao accessions from various natural cacao populations originally collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Resistance of 43 families was evaluated under nursery and/or field conditions by artificial or natural infection, respectively, based on disease incidence. Screening for resistance by artificial inoculation under nursery conditions appeared to be efficient in identifying these novel resistance sources, confirmed by natural field evaluation over a nine-year period. The increase in natural field infection of `Scavina 6` was clearly demonstrated. Among the evaluated families with the least witches` broom incidence, there were accessions originally collected from distinct river basins, including the Jamari river (`CAB 0371`; `CAB 0388`; `CAB 0392`; and `CAB 0410`); Acre (`CAB 0169`); Javari (`CAB 0352`); Solimes (`CAB 0270`); and from the Purus river basin, the two most outstanding resistant accessions, `CAB 0208` and `CAB 0214`. The large genetic diversity found in cacao populations occurring at river basins from Acre and Amazonas states, Brazil, increased the chance that the selected resistant accessions would be genetically more dissimilar, and represent distinct sources of resistance to M. perniciosa from `Scavina 6`.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in Colletotrichum acutatum, the causal agent of postbloom fruit drop on citrus

From a genomic enriched library, we developed 27 primer pairs from microsatellite flanking sequences for Colletotrichum acutatum, associated to postbloom fruit drop disease on citrus. Loci were characterized using 40 monosporic C. acutatum isolates. Nine primer pairs successfully amplified polymorphic microsatellite regions, with 3-6 alleles per locus, and mean heterozygosities ranging 0.093-0.590 across loci. The suitability of these primers was investigated in four Colletotrichum species as well. These microsatellite markers will be useful for genetic analyses and epidemiological studies of C. acutatum.

Volatile organic compounds produced by Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibit the in vitro development of Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot

Due to the low chemical control effectiveness of citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Guignardia citricarpa at postharvest, and to the search for alternative control methods, this study aimed to evaluate the in vitro effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), produced by yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, on G. citricarpa. It was observed that the yeast strains evaluated acted as antagonists by VOC production, whose maximum inhibitory capacity was as high as 87.2%. The presence of fermentable carbon sources in the medium was essential for the bioactive VOC production by the yeast. The analysis of VOCs produced in PDA medium by SPME-GC-MS indicated the presence of high quantities of alcohols as well as esters. An artificial VOC mixture prepared on the basis of the composition of the VOCs mimicked the inhibitory effects of the natural VOCs released by S. cerevisiae. Thus, the VOCs produced by the yeast or the artificial mixtures can be a promising control method for citrus black spot or others postharvest diseases.

Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, a new causal agent of citrus post-bloom fruit drop

Citrus post-bloom fruit drop (caused by Colletotrichum acutatum) frequently occurs in the southwestern region of So Paulo State, Brazil. A survey of Colletotrichum isolates associated with symptoms of post-bloom fruit drop in So Paulo State showed C. gloeosporioides in addition to C. acutatum. The objectives of this study were to confirm the identification of C. gloeosporioides isolated from symptomatic citrus flowers, to test the pathogenicity of C. gloeosporioides isolates, to compare the development of disease caused by C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum, and to determine the frequency of C. gloeosporioides in a sample of isolates obtained from symptomatic flowers in different regions of So Paulo State. Through the use of species-specific primers by PCR, 17.3% of 139 isolates were C. gloeosporioides, and the remaining 82.7% were C. acutatum. The pathogenicity tests, carried out in 3-year old potted plants of sweet oranges indicated that both species caused typical symptoms of the disease including blossom blight and persistent calyces. Incubation periods (3.5 and 3.9 days, respectively, for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) and fruit sets (6.7 and 8.5%, respectively for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) were similar for both species. The incidences of blossom blight and persistent calyces were higher on plants inoculated with C. acutatum than in those inoculated with C. gloeosporioides. Conidial germination was similar for both species under different temperatures and wetness periods. Under optimal conditions, appressorium formation and melanisation were higher for C. gloeosporioides than for C. acutatum. These results indicated that Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is a new causal agent of post-bloom fruit drop.

Mycovirus in Pseudocercospora griseola, the causal agent of angular leaf spot in common bean

Pseudocercospora griseola (Sacc.) Crous &. Braun is a widespread fungal phytopathogen that is responsible for angular leaf spot in the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). A number of fungal phytopathogens have been shown to harbour mycoviruses, and this possibility was investigated in populations of Pseudocercospora griseola. The total nucleic acid extracts of 61 fungal isolates were subjected to agarose gel electrophoresis. Small fragments (800-4800 bp) could be identified in 42 of the samples. The presence of dsRNA in isolate Ig838 was confirmed by treatment of total nucleic acid with DNase, RNase A, and nuclease S I. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the presence of viral-like particles 40 nm in diameter in the mycelia of 2 fungal isolates, namely 29-3 and Ig838. The transmission of dsRNA by means of conidia was 100% for isolate 29-3, but there was loss of 1-6 fragments of dsRNA in monosporic colonies of isolate Ig848. Cycloheximide treatment failed to inhibit the mycovirus in isolate 29-3, but proved efficient in the elimination of the 2.2, 2.0, 1.8, 1.2 and 1.0 kb fragments in 2 colonies of isolate Ig848. The occurrence of a mycovirus in Pseudocercospora griseola was demonstrated for the first time in the present study.

Sensitive and specific detection of Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, with a polymerase chain reaction-based assay

A sensitive, specific polymerase chain reaction-based assay was developed for the detection of the causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli. This assay uses oligonucleotide primers derived from the internal transcribed spacer region between the 16S and 23S rRNA genes of the bacterial rRNA operon. The assay is specific for C. xyli subsp. xyli and does not produce an amplification product from the template of the closely related bacterium C. xyli subsp. cynodontis, nor from other bacterial species. The assay was successfully applied to the detection of C. xyli subsp. xyli in fibrovascular fluid extracted from sugarcane and was sensitive to approximately 22 cells per PCR assay. A multiplex PCR test was also developed which identified and differentiated C. xyli subsp. xyli and C. xyli subsp. cynodontis in a single PCR assay.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and substance use disorders: is there a causal link?

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), characterized by restless, inattentive and hyperactive behaviours, is a relatively common childhood disorder that affects approximately 5% of the general population. There has been controversy about whether ADHD increases risks of developing substance use disorders. The available evidence suggests that, in the absence of conduct disorder, ADHD is not associated with an increased risk of substance use problems in males. There is only limited evidence on the role of ADHD in the aetiology of substance use disorders among females. While ADHD has traditionally been considered as a childhood disorder, it may also occur in adults; research needs to examine the extent to which ADHD in adulthood increases the risk of substance use disorders.