A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações. Palavras-

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction

Comparing Near-infrared Conventional Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy And Hyperspectral Imaging For Determination Of The Bulk Properties Of Solid Samples By Multivariate Regression: Determination Of Mooney Viscosity And Plasticity Indices Of Natural Rubber.

Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

Influence of Urea and Ammonium Sulfate on Soil Acidity Indices in Lowland Rice Production

Urea and ammonium sulfate are principal nitrogen (N) sources for crop production. Two field experiments were conducted during three consecutive years to evaluate influence of urea and ammonium sulfate application on grain yield, soil pH, calcium (Ca) saturation, magnesium (Mg) saturation, base saturation, aluminum (Al) saturation, and acidity (H + Al) saturation in lowland rice production. Grain yield was significantly influenced by urea as well as ammonium sulfate fertilization. Soil pH linearly decreased with the application of N by ammonium sulfate and urea fertilizers. However, the magnitude of the pH decrease was greater by ammonium sulfate than by urea. The Ca and Mg saturations were decreased at the greater N rates compared to low rates of N by both the fertilizer sources. The Al and acidity saturation increased with increasing N rates by both the fertilizer sources. However, these acidity indices were increased more with the application of ammonium sulfate compared with urea. Rice grain yield had negative associations with pH, Ca saturation, Mg saturation, and base saturation and positive associations with Al and acidity saturation. This indicates that rice plant is tolerant to soil acidity.

Concussion in contact sports: Reliable change indices of impairment and recovery

This paper reports a follow-up study to an article on the sensitivity of three tests of speed of information processing to impairment after concussion (Hinton-Bayre, Geffen, BL McFarland, 1997). Group analyses showed that practice effects can obscure the effects of concussion on information processing, thereby making the assessment of functional impairment and recovery after injury unreliable. A Reliable Change Index (RCI) was used to assess individual variations following concussion. It was found that 16 of the 20 concussed professional rugby league players were impaired 1-3 days following injury. It was also demonstrated that 7 players still displayed cognitive deficits at 1-2 weeks, before returning to preseason levels at 3-5 weeks. The RCI permits comparisons between different tests, players, and repeated assessments, thereby providing a quantitative basis for decisions regarding return to play.

Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy

This paper examines the compatibility of inflation targeting with an economy that is Post Keynesian in character. We show that in a Post Keynesian environment, policymakers can both set and achieve an inflation target without adverse consequences for the real economy, as long as an appropriate policy mix is chosen. The latitude that policymakers have in making this choice is investigated. One of our key results is that orthodox policy regimes do not provide appropriate policy mixes. Indeed, the more orthodox the policy regime becomes, the less viable is inflation targeting in a Post Keynesian economy.

Genetic covariance between indices of body condition and immunocompetence in a passerine bird

Background: Condition-dependence is a ubiquitous feature of animal life histories and has important implications for both natural and sexual selection. Mate choice, for instance, is typically based on condition-dependent signals. Theory predicts that one reason why condition-dependent signals may be special is that they allow females to scan for genes that confer high parasite resistance. Such explanations require a genetic link between immunocompetence and body condition, but existing evidence is limited to phenotypic associations. It remains unknown, therefore, whether females selecting males with good body condition simply obtain a healthy mate, or if they acquire genes for their offspring that confer high immunocompetence. Results: Here we use a cross-foster experimental design to partition the phenotypic covariance in indices of body condition and immunocompetence into genetic, maternal and environmental effects in a passerine bird, the zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata. We show that there is significant positive additive genetic covariance between an index of body condition and an index of cell-mediated immune response. In this case, genetic variance in the index of immune response explained 56% of the additive genetic variance in the index of body condition. Conclusion: Our results suggest that, in the context of sexual selection, females that assess males on the basis of condition-dependent signals may gain genes that confer high immunocompetence for their offspring. More generally, a genetic correlation between indices of body condition and imuunocompetence supports the hypothesis that parasite resistance may be an important target of natural selection. Additional work is now required to test whether genetic covariance exists among other aspects of both condition and immunocompetence.

Sequential Changes of Longitudinal and Radial Myocardial Deformation Indices in the Healthy Neonate Heart

Background: Significant hemodynamic changes, including preload and afterload modifications, occur during the transition from the fetal to the neonatal environment. The ductus arteriosus closes, pulmonary vascular resistance decreases, and pulmonary blood flow increases. Strain rate (SR) and strain (e) have been proposed as ultrasound indices for quantifying regional wall deformation. This study was designed to determine if these indices can detect variations in regional deformation between early and late neonatal periods. Methods: Data were obtained from 30 healthy neonates (15 male). The initial study was performed at a mean age of 20.1614 hours (exam 1) and the second at 31.962.9 days (exam 2). Apical and parasternal views were used to quantify regional left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal and radial SR and e, and systolic, early, and late diastolic values were calculated from these curves. A paired-samples t test was performed comparing the two groups. Results: Compared with exam 1, LV radial deformation showed significant reductions in peak systolic e in the basal and mid segments (51615% vs 4669%, P < .01). LV longitudinal deformation behaved similarly, showing significant peak systolic e reductions in all measured segments. Systolic SR showed reductions only in the basal and apical segments of the lateral wall and in the mid portion of the inferior wall (-1.9 +/- 0.5 vs -1.7 +/- 0.3 s(-1) and -1.9 +/- 0.4 vs -1.7 +/- 0.2 s(-1), respectively, P = .03). RV longitudinal free and inferior wall systolic SR and e values were significantly higher in exam 2. Conclusions: LV peak systolic e decreases in exam 2 were possibly due to afterload increase and preload decrease. The lower RV initial deformation indices could be attributed to increased afterload caused by physiologic pulmonary hypertension or immature RV contractile properties. SR seemed to be a more robust index than e and less influenced by preload and afterload hemodynamic alteration. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:294-300.)

Quantification of Regional Left and Right Ventricular Deformation Indices in Healthy Neonates by Using Strain Rate and Strain Imaging

Background: Color Doppler myocardial imaging (CDMI) allows the calculation of local longitudinal or radial strain rate (SR) and strain (epsilon). The aims of this study were to determine the feasibility and reproducibility of longitudinal and radial SR and epsilon in neonates during the first hours of life and to establish reference values. Methods: Data were obtained from 55 healthy neonates (29 male; mean age, 20 +/- 14 hours; mean birth weight, 3,174 +/- 374 g). Apical and parasternal views quantified regional longitudinal and radial SR and epsilon in differing ventricular wall segments. Values at peak systole, early diastole, and late diastole were calculated from the extracted curves. CDMI data acquired at 300 +/- 50 frames/s were analyzed offline. Three consecutive cardiac cycles were measured during normal respiration. The timing of specific systolic or diastolic regional events was determined. Multiple comparisons between walls and segments were made. Results: Left ventricular (LV) longitudinal deformation showed basal differences compared with apical segments within one specific wall. Right ventricular (RV) longitudinal deformation was not homogeneous, with significant differences between basal and apical segments. Longitudinal 3 values were higher in the RV free basal and middle wall segments compared with the left ventricle. In the RV free wall apical segment, longitudinal SR and 3 were maximal. LV systolic SR and epsilon values were higher radially compared with longitudinally (radial peak systolic SR midportion, 2.9 +/- 0.6 s(-1); radial peak systolic epsilon 53.8 +/- 19%; longitudinal peak systolic SR midportion, -1.8 +/- 0.5 s(-1); longitudinal peak systolic epsilon, -24.8 +/- 3%; P < .01). Longitudinal systolic epsilon and SR interobserver variability values were 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively. Conclusion: Ultrasound-based SR and 3 imaging is a practical and reproducible clinical technique in neonates, allowing the calculation of regional longitudinal and radial deformation in RV and LV segments. These regional SR and epsilon indices represent new, noninvasive parameters that can quantify normal neonate regional cardiac function. Independent from visual interpretation, they can be used as reference values for diagnosis in ill neonates. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2009;22:369-375.)

A Prospective Study of Conventional and Expanded Coagulation Indices in Predicting Ulcer Bleeding After Variceal Band Ligation

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy over whether coagulation status predicts bleeding caused by ulceration after esophageal varices band ligation (EVL). METHODS: EVL was performed for primary (n = 45) or secondary (n = 105) prophylaxis in 150 patients with cirrhosis (Child A, n = 74, 49%; Child B, n = 42, 28%; Child C, n = 34, 23%). International normalized ratio (INR) and platelet counts were assessed in all. In 92 patients, levels of factor V, fibrinogen, D-dimer, protein C and protein S, von Willebrand factor, and thromboelastography (TEG) were assessed. Platelet count < 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) and INR > 1.5 were considered high-risk cutoff for bleeding. Conversely, platelet count >= 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) with INR <= 1.5 were safe cutoffs. RESULTS: Overall, 11 patients (7.3%) had post-EVL ulcer bleeding. Bleeding occurred in S patients with Child A/B (4.3%) and 6 patients with Child C (17%) (P = .0174 for Child A/B versus Child C). Eight patients with bleeding were among the 110 below the cutoff for INR and platelet count, whereas only 3 of the patients with bleeding were among the 40 patients with purported high-risk values (P = 1.0). Among the 92 patients with expanded coagulation tests, bleeding occurred in S. There was no difference in any of the coagulation parameters, including overall TEG patterns, between patients who did and did nor bleed. CONCLUSIONS: Post-EVL ulcer bleeding was associated with Child C status but not with conventional or expanded coagulation indices in cirrhotic patients without renal failure or infection undergoing elective EVL. These results call into question the common use of prophylactic procoagulants in the elective setting.

Hematological indices at birth in relation to arterial and venous Doppler in small-for-gestational-age fetuses

Objective. To correlate Doppler results with hematological indices at birth in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses. Design. Prospective study. Setting. Tertiary teaching hospital, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Population. One hundred singleton pregnancies with SGA fetuses of > 27 weeks gestational age. Methods. All women had Doppler velocimetry of the umbilical arteries, middle cerebral artery, and ductus venosus within < 72 hours prior to delivery. After birth, umbilical artery blood was collected for hematological analysis. Main outcome measures. The association between fetal Doppler velocimetry pulsatility index (PI) and some hematological indices. Results. Umbilical artery PI showed a positive correlation with nucleated red blood cell count in the umbilical cord (r = 0.46; p<0.01), and a negative correlation with platelet count (r = -0.53; p<0.01) and white blood cell count (r = -0.42; p<0.01). Middle cerebral artery PI was positively correlated with platelet count (r = 0.43; p<0.01) and white blood cell count (r = 0.38; p<0.01), and was negatively correlated with nucleated red blood cell count (r = -0.39; p<0.01). The ductus venosus pulsatility index showed a positive correlation with nucleated red blood cell count (r = 0.36; p<0.01), and a negative correlation with platelet count (r = -0.37; p<0.01) and white blood cell count (r = -0.26; p<0.01). Conclusion. A significant positive or negative correlation between nucleated red blood cell, platelet and white blood cell counts, and Doppler indices suggests an association between placental insufficiency and the fetal hematological response.

Electromyographic standardized indices in healthy Brazilian young adults and data reproducibility

P>The determination of normal parameters is an important procedure in the evaluation of the stomatognathic system. We used the surface electromyography standardization protocol described by Ferrario et al. (J Oral Rehabil. 2000;27:33-40, 2006;33:341) to determine reference values of the electromyographic standardized indices for the assessment of muscular symmetry (left and right side, percentage overlapping coefficient, POC), potential lateral displacing components (unbalanced contractile activities of contralateral masseter and temporalis muscles, TC), relative activity (most prevalent pair of masticatory muscles, ATTIV) and total activity (integrated areas of the electromyographic potentials over time, IMPACT) in healthy Brazilian young adults, and the relevant data reproducibility. Electromyography of the right and left masseter and temporalis muscles was performed during maximum teeth clenching in 20 healthy subjects (10 women and 10 men, mean age 23 years, s.d. 3), free from periodontal problems, temporomandibular disorders, oro-facial myofunctional disorder, and with full permanent dentition (28 teeth at least). Data reproducibility was computed for 75% of the sample. The values obtained were POC Temporal (88 center dot 11 +/- 1 center dot 45%), POC masseter (87 center dot 11 +/- 1 center dot 60%), TC (8 center dot 79 +/- 1 center dot 20%), ATTIV (-0 center dot 33 +/- 9 center dot 65%) and IMPACT (110 center dot 40 +/- 23 center dot 69 mu V/mu V center dot s %). There were no statistical differences between test and retest values (P > 0 center dot 05). The Technical Errors of Measurement (TEM) for 50% of subjects assessed during the same session were 1 center dot 5, 1 center dot 39, 1 center dot 06, 3 center dot 83 and 10 center dot 04. For 25% of the subjects assessed after a 6-month interval, the TEM were 0 center dot 80, 1 center dot 03, 0 center dot 73, 12 center dot 70 and 19 center dot 10. For all indices, there was good reproducibility. These electromyographic indices could be used in the assessment of patients with stomatognathic dysfunction.