Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

REDD+ and community-controlled forests in low-income countries: any hope for a linkage?

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8 Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD + is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy. This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD +. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD + without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD + offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD + could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems.

Discordant responses to potent antiretroviral treatment in previously naive HIV-1-infected adults initiating treatment in resource-constrained countries: the antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries (ART-LINC) collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess the frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses at 6 months on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in previously treatment-naive HIV patients from resource-limited countries. METHODS: The Antiretroviral Therapy in Low-Income Countries Collaboration is a network of clinics providing care and treatment to HIV-infected patients in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Patients who initiated therapy between 1996 and 2004, were aged 16 years or older, and had a baseline CD4 cell count were included in this analysis. Responses were defined based on plasma viral load (PVL) and CD4 cell count at 6 months as complete virologic and immunologic (VR(+)IR(+)), virologic only (VR(+)IR(-)), immunologic only (VR(-)IR(+)), and nonresponse (VR(-)IR(-)). Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between therapy responses and clinical and demographic variables. RESULTS: Of the 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VR(+)IR(+), 364 (19.0%) were VR(+)IR(-), 283 (14.8%) were (VR(-)IR(+)), and 193 (10.1%) were VR(-)IR(-). OF THE 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VRIR, 364 (19.0%) were VRIR, 283 (14.8%) were (VRIR), and 193 (10.1%) were VRIR. Compared with complete responders, virologic-only responders were older, had a higher baseline CD4 cell count, had a lower baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a nonstandard HAART regimen; immunologic-only responders were younger, had a lower baseline CD4 cell count, had a higher baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a protease inhibitor-based regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses were comparable to those observed in developed countries. Longer follow-up is needed to assess the long-term impact of discordant responses on mortality in these resource-limited settings.

Long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, where ART is being rapidly scaled up using a public health approach, with a limited repertoire of drugs. OBJECTIVES: To describe immunologic response to ART among ART patients in a network of cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. STUDY POPULATION/METHODS: Treatment-naive patients aged 15 and older from 27 treatment programs were eligible. Multilevel, linear mixed models were used to assess associations between predictor variables and CD4 cell count trajectories following ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 29 175 patients initiating ART, 8933 (31%) were excluded due to insufficient follow-up time and early lost to follow-up or death. The remaining 19 967 patients contributed 39 200 person-years on ART and 71 067 CD4 cell count measurements. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 114 cells/microl, with 35% having less than 100 cells/microl. Substantial intersite variation in baseline CD4 cell count was observed (range 61-181 cells/microl). Women had higher median baseline CD4 cell counts than men (121 vs. 104 cells/microl). The median CD4 cell count increased from 114 cells/microl at ART initiation to 230 [interquartile range (IQR) 144-338] at 6 months, 263 (IQR 175-376) at 1 year, 336 (IQR 224-472) at 2 years, 372 (IQR 242-537) at 3 years, 377 (IQR 221-561) at 4 years, and 395 (IQR 240-592) at 5 years. In multivariable models, baseline CD4 cell count was the most important determinant of subsequent CD4 cell count trajectories. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate robust and sustained CD4 response to ART among patients remaining on therapy. Public health and programmatic interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART could substantially improve patient outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Do Foreign Currency Deposits Promote or Deter Financial Development in Low-Income Countries? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Foreign currency deposits (FCD) are prevalent in many low-income developing countries, but their impact on bank lending has rarely been examined. An examination of cross-country data indicates that a higher proportion of FCD in total deposits is associated with growth in private credit only in inflationary circumstances (over 24 percent of the annual inflation rate). FCD can lead to a decline in private credit below this threshold level of inflation. Given that FCD exhibit persistence, deregulating them in low-income countries may do more harm than good on financial development in the long term, notably after successful containment of inflation.

Location choice in low-income countries : evidence from Japanese investments in East Asia

Unlike most existing studies, this paper examines the location choices of MNEs in developing countries. Specifically, we investigate the location choices of Japanese MNEs among East Asian developing countries by estimating a four-stage nested logit model at the province level. Noteworthy results of location elements are as follows. As is consistent with the mechanics of cheap labor-seeking FDI, Japanese MNEs are more likely to invest in locations with low income and low tariff rates on products from Japan. Also, accessibility to other locations and/or ports matters in attracting Japanese MNEs because it is crucial in importing materials and exporting their products. In addition, WTO membership and bilateral investment treaties are important because these contribute to the settlement of trade and investment disputes, which is more likely to be necessary in developing countries.

Slow and steady wins the race : how the garment industry leads industrialization in low-income countries

This paper investigates how the garment industry escapes this vicious cycle and argues for the validity of labor-intensive industry as a starting point for full-fledged industrialization, even though it might at first seem to be a digression from the path to an innovation-led economy. By examining original firm-level data on garment-producing firms collected in 2002 and 2008 in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya and Madagascar, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) low wages, though still sufficient for poverty reduction, are the main source of competitiveness in low-income countries; (2) after the successful initiation of industrialization causes wages to begin to rise, there is still a possibility for productivity enhancement; and (3) skill bias in technological progress is not yet a major factor, implying that the garment industry is still a labor-intensive industry. In sum, labor-intensive industry should not be discounted as a part of the development strategy of low-income countries.

Point of View: The importance of Leadership towards universal health coverage in Low Income Countries

Universal health coverage—defined as access to the full range of the most appropriate health care and technology for all people at the lowest possible price or with social health protection—was the goal of the 1978 Alma-Ata Conference on Primary Health Care in Kazakhstan. Many low-income (developing) countries are currently unable to reach this goal despite having articulated the same in their health-related documents. In this paper we argue that, over 30 years on, inadequate political and technical leadership has prevented the realization of universal health coverage in low-income countries.

The importance of Leadership towards universal health coverage in Low Income Countries

Universal health coverage—defined as access to the full range of the most appropriate health care and technology for all people at the lowest possible price or with social health protection—was the goal of the 1978 Alma-Ata Conference on Primary Health Care in Kazakhstan. Many low-income (developing) countries are currently unable to reach this goal despite having articulated the same in their health-related documents. In this paper we argue that, over 30 years on, inadequate political and technical leadership has prevented the realization of universal health coverage in low-income countries.

Mind the gap! : A discussion on the disparity between low and high income countries in the provision of mental health care and the implications for capacity building in Kenya’s nursing workforce.

About fourteen per cent of the global burden of disease has been attributed to mental, neurological and substance use disorders. A number of initiatives have been launched in recent years to respond to this, the World Health Organisation (WHO) introduced the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) to address the widening gap between what is needed to provide adequate mental health services and what is currently available, especially in low and middle income countries where the gap is widest.
This discussion paper will focus on mental health nursing in Kenya, a country in East Africa with a population of 42 million people. Mental illness is common in Kenya with up to twenty five per cent prevalence rates, yet mental health services are sparse at the tertiary and primary care level and mental health remains a low budget and policy priority for the government. The aim of this paper is to raise participants’ awareness of the challenges of delivering mental health nursing care in low-income countries such as Kenya, and to explore possible solutions to the problem.