‘Low carbon’ scenarios, roadmaps, transitions and pathways: an overview and discussion

There are a range of studies based in the low carbon arena which use various ‘futures’- based techniques as ways of exploring uncertainties. These techniques range from ‘scenarios’ and ‘roadmaps’ through to ‘transitions’ and ‘pathways’ as well as ‘vision’-based techniques. The overall aim of the paper is therefore to compare and contrast these techniques to develop a simple working typology with the further objective of identifying the implications of this analysis for RETROFIT 2050. Using recent examples of city-based and energy-based studies throughout, the paper compares and contrasts these techniques and finds that the distinctions between them have often been blurred in the field of low carbon. Visions, for example, have been used in both transition theory and futures/Foresight methods, and scenarios have also been used in transition-based studies as well as futures/Foresight studies. Moreover, Foresight techniques which capture expert knowledge and map existing knowledge to develop a set of scenarios and roadmaps which can inform the development of transitions and pathways can not only help potentially overcome any ‘disconnections’ that may exist between the social and the technical lenses in which such future trajectories are mapped, but also promote a strong ‘co-evolutionary’ content.

Pathways to Low Carbon Transport in the EU – From Possibility to Reality. Report of the CEPS Task Force on transport and climate change. CEPS Task Force Report, June 2013

A new CEPS Task Force Report has identified possible pathways for achieving the EU’s ambitious climate change targets. It concludes that a GHG emissions reduction in line with EU climate change policy is possible, but it requires immediate action. This report argues that most of the reductions required of the transport sector in the EU could come from more energy-efficient vehicles, combined with the gradual introduction of low-carbon fuels and new engine technologies. The key policy for reducing GHG emissions in road transport is the steady tightening of emissions standards in line with technological progress. The report also identifies strategies for the transport system to become more energy and/or carbon efficient, arguing that leverage can be further enhanced by local and city governments’ incentives for efficient and low-carbon vehicles in line with local circumstances and choices. The Task Force on Low Carbon Transport brought together a diverse set of stakeholders from the car and oil industries, business associations, international organisations, member states, academic experts and NGOs. This authoritative report is the result of that unique collaboration.

Modeling of the Barkhausen jump in low carbon steel

This work presents a model for the magnetic Barkhausen jump in low carbon content steels. The outcomes of the model evidence that the Barkhausen jump height depends on the coercive field of the pinning site and on the mean free path of the domain wall between pinning sites. These results are used to deduce the influence of the microstructural features and of the magnetizing parameters on the amplitude and duration of the Barkhausen jumps. In particular, a theoretical expression, establishing the dependence of the Barkbausen jump height on the carbon content and grain size, is obtained. The model also reveals the dependence of the Barkhausen jump on the applied frequency and amplitude. Theoretical and experimental results are presented and compared, being in good agreement. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

The effect of heat treatment on the toughness, hardness and microstructure of low carbon white cast irons

The effect of destabilisation and subcritical heat treatment on the impact toughness, hardness, and the amount and mechanical stability of retained austenite in a low carbon white cast iron have been investigated. The experimental results show that the impact energy constantly increases when the destabilisation temperature is raised from 950 degreesC to 1200 degreesC. Although the hardness decreases, the heat-treated hardness is still greater than the as-cast state. After destabilisation treatment at 1130 degreesC, tempering at 200 to 250 degreesC for 3 hours leads to the highest impact toughness, and secondary hardening was observed when tempering over 400 degreesC. The amount of retained austenite increased with the increase in the destabilisation temperature, and the treatment significantly improves the mechanical stability of the retained austenite compared with the as-cast state. Tempering below 400 degreesC does not affect the amount of retained austenite and its mechanical stability. But the amount of retained austenite is dramatically reduced when tempered above 400 degreesC. The relationship between the mechanical properties and the microstructure changes was discussed. (C) 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Accurate orientation relationship between ferrite and austenite in low carbon martensite and granular bainite

Convergent beam Kikuchi diffraction was used to accurately determine the orientation relationships (ORs) between austenite and martensite, and between austenite and granular bainite in two Fe-Ni-Mn-C alloys. Both martensite and granular bainite have the same crystallographic characteristics with the OR: (111)(A)parallel to(101)(F), [1 (1) over bar0](A) 2.5degrees +/- 2degrees from [1 (1) over bar(1) over bar](B).

Relationship between stress-induced martensitic transformation and impact toughness in low carbon austenitic steels

The effect of test temperature, which controls the stability of austenite, on the impact toughness of a low carbon Fe-Ni-Mn-C austenitic steel and 304 stainless steel, has been investigated. Under impact conditions, stress-induced martensitic transformation occurred, in a region near the fracture surface, at test temperatures below 80degreesC for the Fe-Ni-Mn-C steel and below -25degreesC for 304 stainless steel. The former shows significant transformation toughening and the highest impact toughness was obtained at 10degreesC, which corresponds to the maximum amount of martensite formed by stress-induced transformation above the Ms temperature. The stress-induced martensitic transformation contributes negatively to the impact toughness in the 304 stainless steel. Increasing the amount of stress-induced transformation to martensite, lowered the impact toughness. The experimental results can be well explained by the Antolovich theory through the analysis of metallography and fractography. The different effect of stress-induced transformation on the impact toughness in Fe-Ni-Mn-C steel and 304 stainless steel has been further understood by applying the crystallographic model for stress-induced martensitic transformation to these two steels. (C) 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Chinese energy policy progress and challenges in the transition to low carbon development, 2006-2013

If the world is not to jeopardize the chances for human life on Earth, climate change must be mitigated; therefore, achieving low carbon development is crucial. China is the world's greatest GHG emitter, energy producer and energy consumer; investigating its energy-climate policy developments and international positions are of utmost importance to understand and tackle current stumbling blocks of the global energy and climate governance.

Low-Carbon Cement with Waste Oil-Cracking Catalyst Incorporation

The present paper shows preliminary results of an ongoing project which one of the goals is to investigate the viability of using waste FCC catalyst (wFCC), originated from Portuguese oil refinery, to produce low carbon blended cements. For this purpose, four blended cements were produced by substituting cement CEM I 42.5R up to 20% (w/w) by waste FCC catalyst. Initial and final setting times, consistency of standard paste, soundness and compressive strengths after 2, 7 and 28 days were measured. It was observed that the wFCC blended cements developed similar strength, at 28 days, compared to the reference cement, CEM I 42.5R. Moreover, cements with waste FCC catalyst incorporation up to 15% w/w meet European Standard EN 197-1 specifications for CEM II/A type cement, in the 42.5R strength class.

Low-carbon cement with waste oil-craking catalyst incorporation

The present paper shows preliminary results of an ongoing project which one of the goals is to investigate the viability of using waste FCC catalyst (wFCC), originated from Portuguese oil refinery, to produce low carbon blended cements. For this purpose, four blended cements were produced by substituting cement CEM I 42.5R up to 20% (w/w) by waste FCC catalyst. Initial and final setting times, consistency of standard paste, soundness and compressive strengths after 2, 7 and 28 days were measured. It was observed that the wFCC blended cements developed similar strength, at 28 days, compared to the reference cement, CEM I 42.5R. Moreover, cements with waste FCC catalyst incorporation up to 15% w/w meet European Standard EN 197-1 specifications for CEM II/A type cement, in the 42.5R strength class.

Development of foam one-part geopolymers with enhanced thermal insulation performance and low carbon dioxide emissions

Buildings are responsible for more than 40% of the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, increasing building energy efficiency is one the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. The use of thermal insulation materials could constitute the most effective way of reducing heat losses in buildings by minimising heat energy needs. These materials have a thermal conductivity factor, k (W/m.K) lower than 0.065 while other insulation materials such as aerated concrete can go up to 0.11. Current insulation materials are associated with negative impacts in terms of toxicity. Polystyrene, for example contains anti-oxidant additives and ignition retardants. In addition, its production involves the generation of benzene and chlorofluorocarbons. Polyurethane is obtained from isocyanates, which are widely known for their tragic association with the Bhopal disaster. Besides current insulation materials releases toxic fumes when subjected to fire. This paper presents experimental results on one-part geopolymers. It also includes global warming potential assessment and cost analysis. The results show that only the use of aluminium powder allows the production mixtures with a high compressive strength however its high cost means they are commercially useless when facing the competition of commercial cellular concrete. The results also show that one-part geopolymer mixtures based on 26%OPC +58.3%FA +8%CS +7.7%CH and 3.5% hydrogen peroxide constitute a promising cost efficient (67 euro/m3), thermal insulation solution for floor heating systems with low global warming potential of 443 KgCO2eq/m3.

Mobilising community action towards a low-carbon future: Opportunities and challenges for local government in the UK

Over the last decade the important role that local authorities can play in catalyzing communityaction on climate change has been repeatedly emphasised by the UK Government. The paper examines this policy context and explores the options available to local authorities in terms of reaching and engaging their communities. The type of progressive response shown by some UKlocal authorities is illustrated with empirical evidence gathered through a study conducted in the London Borough of Islington focusing on their recently established ‘Green Living Centre’. The results confirm interest in this major council-led community initiative, with positive attitudes expressed by the majority of those questioned in terms of the advice and information available. However, it is also clear that many participants had preexisting pro-environmental attitudes and behavioural routines. Results from a broader sample of Islington residents indicate a substantial challenge in reaching the wider community, where enthusiasm for sustainability change and interest in this type of scheme were more mixed. The prospect for local government in addressing this challenge – and their ability to trigger and capitalize upon concepts of social change at the community level towardsalowercarbon future – is discussed in the final part of the paper.