On the applicability of the lognormal distribution in random dynamical systems

This paper is concerned with the probability density function of the energy of a random dynamical system subjected to harmonic excitation. It is shown that if the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the system conform to the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, then under common types of loading the distribution of the energy of the response is approximately lognormal, providing the modal overlap factor is high (typically greater than two). In contrast, it is shown that the response of a system with Poisson natural frequencies is not approximately lognormal. Numerical simulations are conducted on a plate system to validate the theoretical findings and good agreement is obtained. Simulations are also conducted on a system made from two plates connected with rotational springs to demonstrate that the theoretical findings can be extended to a built-up system. The work provides a theoretical justification of the commonly used empirical practice of assuming that the energy response of a random system is lognormal.

The Double Pareto-Lognormal Distribution and its applications in actuarial science and finance

Le but de ce mémoire de maîtrise est de décrire les propriétés de la loi double Pareto-lognormale, de montrer comment on peut introduire des variables explicatives dans le modèle et de présenter son large potentiel d'applications dans le domaine de la science actuarielle et de la finance. Tout d'abord, nous donnons la définition de la loi double Pareto-lognormale et présentons certaines de ses propriétés basées sur les travaux de Reed et Jorgensen (2004). Les paramètres peuvent être estimés en utilisant la méthode des moments ou le maximum de vraisemblance. Ensuite, nous ajoutons une variable explicative à notre modèle. La procédure d'estimation des paramètres de ce mo-\\dèle est également discutée. Troisièmement, des applications numériques de notre modèle sont illustrées et quelques tests statistiques utiles sont effectués.

Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

Statistical model of OFDMA cellular networks uplink interference using lognormal distribution

In this letter, we propose an analytical approach to model uplink intercell interference (ICI) in hexagonal grid based orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFMDA) cellular networks. The key idea is that the uplink ICI from individual cells is approximated with a lognormal distribution with statistical parameters being determined analytically. Accordingly, the aggregated uplink ICI is approximated with another lognormal distribution and its statistical parameters can be determined from those of individual cells using Fenton-Wilkson method. Analytic expressions of uplink ICI are derived with two traditional frequency reuse schemes, namely integer frequency reuse schemes with factor 1 (IFR-1) and factor 3 (IFR-3). Uplink fractional power control and lognormal shadowing are modeled. System performances in terms of signal to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) and spectrum efficiency are also derived. The proposed model has been validated by simulations. © 2013 IEEE.

Interval and Point Estimators for the Location Parameter of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution

The three-parameter lognormal distribution is the extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution to meet the need of the biological, sociological, and other fields. Numerous research papers have been published for the parameter estimation problems for the lognormal distributions. The inclusion of the location parameter brings in some technical difficulties for the parameter estimation problems, especially for the interval estimation. This paper proposes a method for constructing exact confidence intervals and exact upper confidence limits for the location parameter of the three-parameter lognormal distribution. The point estimation problem is discussed as well. The performance of the point estimator is compared with the maximum likelihood estimator, which is widely used in practice. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is less biased in estimating the location parameter. The large sample size case is discussed in the paper.

Moment-Matched Lognormal Modeling of Uplink Interference with Power Control and Cell Selection

We develop an alternate characterization of the statistical distribution of the inter-cell interference power observed in the uplink of CDMA systems. We show that the lognormal distribution better matches the cumulative distribution and complementary cumulative distribution functions of the uplink interference than the conventionally assumed Gaussian distribution and variants based on it. This is in spite of the fact that many users together contribute to uplink interference, with the number of users and their locations both being random. Our observations hold even in the presence of power control and cell selection, which have hitherto been used to justify the Gaussian distribution approximation. The parameters of the lognormal are obtained by matching moments, for which detailed analytical expressions that incorporate wireless propagation, cellular layout, power control, and cell selection parameters are developed. The moment-matched lognormal model, while not perfect, is an order of magnitude better in modeling the interference power distribution.

The Size Distribution of US Banks and Credit Unions

This study examines the firm size distribution of US banks and credit unions. A truncated lognormal distribution describes the size distribution, measured using assets data, of a large population of small, community-based commercial banks. The size distribution of a smaller but increasingly dominant cohort of large banks, which operate a high-volume low-cost retail banking model, exhibits power-law behaviour. There is a progressive increase in skewness over time, and Zipf’s Law is rejected as a descriptor of the size distribution in the upper tail. By contrast, the asset size distribution of the population of credit unions conforms closely to the lognormal distribution.

Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: the scaling behavior of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components

In this paper, we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multiscaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model with Lognormal volatility components. In order to see how well estimated models capture the temporal dependency of the empirical data, we estimate and compare (generalized) Hurst exponents for both empirical data and simulated MSM models. In general, the Lognormal MSM models generate "apparent" long memory in good agreement with empirical scaling provided that one uses sufficiently many volatility components. In comparison with a Binomial MSM specification [11], results are almost identical. This suggests that a parsimonious discrete specification is flexible enough and the gain from adopting the continuous Lognormal distribution is very limited.

On the Statistical Distribution of Object-Oriented System Properties

The statistical distributions of different software properties have been thoroughly studied in the past, including software size, complexity and the number of defects. In the case of object-oriented systems, these distributions have been found to obey a power law, a common statistical distribution also found in many other fields. However, we have found that for some statistical properties, the behavior does not entirely follow a power law, but a mixture between a lognormal and a power law distribution. Our study is based on the Qualitas Corpus, a large compendium of diverse Java-based software projects. We have measured the Chidamber and Kemerer metrics suite for every file of every Java project in the corpus. Our results show that the range of high values for the different metrics follows a power law distribution, whereas the rest of the range follows a lognormal distribution. This is a pattern typical of so-called double Pareto distributions, also found in empirical studies for other software properties.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

On the Existence and Uniqueness of the Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Normal and Lognormal Population Parameters with Grouped Data

Lognormal distribution has abundant applications in various fields. In literature, most inferences on the two parameters of the lognormal distribution are based on Type-I censored sample data. However, exact measurements are not always attainable especially when the observation is below or above the detection limits, and only the numbers of measurements falling into predetermined intervals can be recorded instead. This is the so-called grouped data. In this paper, we will show the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators of the two parameters of the underlying lognormal distribution with Type-I censored data and grouped data. The proof was first established under the case of normal distribution and extended to the lognormal distribution through invariance property. The results are applied to estimate the median and mean of the lognormal population.

Online scheduling in the operating theatre

Online scheduling is considered in this paper for the Operating Theatre. Robust elective schedules are determined in the offline environment prior to the day of surgery for the online environment. Changes to the offline schedule during project implementation are minimized using an online scheduling model that operates in real-time. The model aims to minimise cancellations of pre-scheduled elective patients whilst also allowing for additional scheduling of emergency cases, time permitting, which may arise during the schedules implementation. Surgical durations are modelled with a lognormal distribution. The single theatre case is solved and the computationally complex multiple theatre case, which is left for future work, is discussed.