Risk minimization in water quality control problems of a river system

Methodologies are presented for minimization of risk in a river water quality management problem. A risk minimization model is developed to minimize the risk of low water quality along a river in the face of conflict among various stake holders. The model consists of three parts: a water quality simulation model, a risk evaluation model with uncertainty analysis and an optimization model. Sensitivity analysis, First Order Reliability Analysis (FORA) and Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the fuzzy risk of low water quality. Fuzzy multiobjective programming is used to formulate the multiobjective model. Probabilistic Global Search Laussane (PGSL), a global search algorithm developed recently, is used for solving the resulting non-linear optimization problem. The algorithm is based on the assumption that better sets of points are more likely to be found in the neighborhood of good sets of points, therefore intensifying the search in the regions that contain good solutions. Another model is developed for risk minimization, which deals with only the moments of the generated probability density functions of the water quality indicators. Suitable skewness values of water quality indicators, which lead to low fuzzy risk are identified. Results of the models are compared with the results of a deterministic fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM), when methodologies are applied to the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river system in southern India, with a steady state BOD-DO model. The fractional removal levels resulting from the risk minimization model are slightly higher, but result in a significant reduction in risk of low water quality. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise tolerance under risk minimization

In this paper, we explore noise-tolerant learning of classifiers. We formulate the problem as follows. We assume that there is an unobservable training set that is noise free. The actual training set given to the learning algorithm is obtained from this ideal data set by corrupting the class label of each example. The probability that the class label of an example is corrupted is a function of the feature vector of the example. This would account for most kinds of noisy data one encounters in practice. We say that a learning method is noise tolerant if the classifiers learnt with noise-free data and with noisy data, both have the same classification accuracy on the noise-free data. In this paper, we analyze the noise-tolerance properties of risk minimization (under different loss functions). We show that risk minimization under 0-1 loss function has impressive noise-tolerance properties and that under squared error loss is tolerant only to uniform noise; risk minimization under other loss functions is not noise tolerant. We conclude this paper with some discussion on the implications of these theoretical results.

Making risk minimization tolerant to label noise

In many applications, the training data, from which one needs to learn a classifier, is corrupted with label noise. Many standard algorithms such as SVM perform poorly in the presence of label noise. In this paper we investigate the robustness of risk minimization to label noise. We prove a sufficient condition on a loss function for the risk minimization under that loss to be tolerant to uniform label noise. We show that the 0-1 loss, sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss satisfy this condition though none of the standard convex loss functions satisfy it. We also prove that, by choosing a sufficiently large value of a parameter in the loss function, the sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss can be made tolerant to nonuniform label noise also if we can assume the classes to be separable under noise-free data distribution. Through extensive empirical studies, we show that risk minimization under the 0-1 loss, the sigmoid loss and the ramp loss has much better robustness to label noise when compared to the SVM algorithm. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk minimization in logistic processes with oil products

13.Vidovic M., Miljus M., Vlajic J., (2002), "Risk minimization in logistic processes with oil products", Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Traffic Science, ICTS 2002, Portorož, Slovenia, pp. 568-577;

Les processus additifs markoviens et leurs applications en finance mathématique

Cette thèse porte sur les questions d'évaluation et de couverture des options dans un modèle exponentiel-Lévy avec changements de régime. Un tel modèle est construit sur un processus additif markovien un peu comme le modèle de Black- Scholes est basé sur un mouvement Brownien. Du fait de l'existence de plusieurs sources d'aléa, nous sommes en présence d'un marché incomplet et ce fait rend inopérant les développements théoriques initiés par Black et Scholes et Merton dans le cadre d'un marché complet. Nous montrons dans cette thèse que l'utilisation de certains résultats de la théorie des processus additifs markoviens permet d'apporter des solutions aux problèmes d'évaluation et de couverture des options. Notamment, nous arrivons à caracté- riser la mesure martingale qui minimise l'entropie relative à la mesure de probabilit é historique ; aussi nous dérivons explicitement sous certaines conditions, le portefeuille optimal qui permet à un agent de minimiser localement le risque quadratique associé. Par ailleurs, dans une perspective plus pratique nous caract érisons le prix d'une option Européenne comme l'unique solution de viscosité d'un système d'équations intégro-di érentielles non-linéaires. Il s'agit là d'un premier pas pour la construction des schémas numériques pour approcher ledit prix.

A risk-estimation-based formulation for speech enhancement and its relation to Wiener filtering

The goal of speech enhancement algorithms is to provide an estimate of clean speech starting from noisy observations. The often-employed cost function is the mean square error (MSE). However, the MSE can never be computed in practice. Therefore, it becomes necessary to find practical alternatives to the MSE. In image denoising problems, the cost function (also referred to as risk) is often replaced by an unbiased estimator. Motivated by this approach, we reformulate the problem of speech enhancement from the perspective of risk minimization. Some recent contributions in risk estimation have employed Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) together with a parametric denoising function, which is a linear expansion of threshold/bases (LET). We show that the first-order case of SURE-LET results in a Wiener-filter type solution if the denoising function is made frequency-dependent. We also provide enhancement results obtained with both techniques and characterize the improvement by means of local as well as global SNR calculations.

Margin-adaptive model selection in statistical learning

A classical condition for fast learning rates is the margin condition, first introduced by Mammen and Tsybakov. We tackle in this paper the problem of adaptivity to this condition in the context of model selection, in a general learning framework. Actually, we consider a weaker version of this condition that allows one to take into account that learning within a small model can be much easier than within a large one. Requiring this “strong margin adaptivity” makes the model selection problem more challenging. We first prove, in a general framework, that some penalization procedures (including local Rademacher complexities) exhibit this adaptivity when the models are nested. Contrary to previous results, this holds with penalties that only depend on the data. Our second main result is that strong margin adaptivity is not always possible when the models are not nested: for every model selection procedure (even a randomized one), there is a problem for which it does not demonstrate strong margin adaptivity.

Prevalence and risk factors of childhood allergic diseases in eight metropolitan cities in China: A multicenter study

Background Several studies conducted during the past two decades suggested increasing trend of childhood allergic diseases in China. However, few studies have provided detailed description of geographic variation and explored risk factors of these diseases. This study investigated the pattern and risk factors of asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema in eight metropolitan cities in China. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey during November-December 2005 in eight metropolitan cities in China. A total of 23791 children aged 6-13 years participated in this survey. Questions from the standard questionnaire of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) were used to examine the pattern of current asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for childhood allergies. Results The average prevalence of childhood asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema across the eight cities was 3∙3% (95% Confidence interval (CI): 3∙1%, 3∙6%), 9∙8% (95% CI: 9∙4%, 10∙2%) and 5∙5% (95% CI: 5∙2%, 5∙8%), respectively. Factors related to lifestyle, mental health and socio-economic status were found to be associated with the prevalence of childhood allergies. These risk factors were unevenly distributed across cities and disproportionately affected the local prevalence. Conclusions There was apparent geographic variation of childhood allergies in China. Socio-environmental factors had strong impacts on the prevalence of childhood allergies; but these impacts differed across regions. Thus public health policies should specifically target at the local risk factors for each individual area.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Directional bilateral filters for smoothing fluorescence microscopy images

Images obtained through fluorescence microscopy at low numerical aperture (NA) are noisy and have poor resolution. Images of specimens such as F-actin filaments obtained using confocal or widefield fluorescence microscopes contain directional information and it is important that an image smoothing or filtering technique preserve the directionality. F-actin filaments are widely studied in pathology because the abnormalities in actin dynamics play a key role in diagnosis of cancer, cardiac diseases, vascular diseases, myofibrillar myopathies, neurological disorders, etc. We develop the directional bilateral filter as a means of filtering out the noise in the image without significantly altering the directionality of the F-actin filaments. The bilateral filter is anisotropic to start with, but we add an additional degree of anisotropy by employing an oriented domain kernel for smoothing. The orientation is locally adapted using a structure tensor and the parameters of the bilateral filter are optimized for within the framework of statistical risk minimization. We show that the directional bilateral filter has better denoising performance than the traditional Gaussian bilateral filter and other denoising techniques such as SURE-LET, non-local means, and guided image filtering at various noise levels in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR). We also show quantitative improvements in low NA images of F-actin filaments. (C) 2015 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.

Avaliação das melhores técnicas disponíveis relativas à refrigeração industrial e às emissões resultantes da armazenagem

Esta dissertação foi realizada em colaboração com o grupo empresarial Monteiro, Ribas e teve como principais objetivos efetuar uma avaliação das melhores técnicas disponíveis relativas à refrigeração industrial e às emissões resultantes da armazenagem. O primeiro objetivo teve como alvo todas as instalações da Monteiro, Ribas enquanto que o segundo objetivo se debruçou sobre Monteiro, Ribas, Embalagens Flexíveis, S.A.. Para cumprir estes objetivos, inicialmente efetuou-se um levantamento das melhores técnicas disponíveis apresentadas nos respetivos documentos de referência. Em seguida selecionaram-se as técnicas que se adequavam às condições e às instalações em estudo e procedeu-se a uma avaliação de forma a verificar o grau de implementação das medidas sugeridas no BREF (Best Available Techniques Reference Document). Relativamente aos sistemas de refrigeração industrial verificou-se que estão implementadas quase todas as medidas referenciadas no respetivo documento de referência. Isto prende-se com o facto dos sistemas de refrigeração existentes no complexo industrial Monteiro, Ribas serem relativamente recentes. Foram implementados no ano de 2012, e são caracterizados por apresentarem uma conceção moderna com elevada eficiência. No que diz respeito à armazenagem de produtos químicos perigosos, a instalação em estudo, apresenta algumas inconformidades, uma vez que a maioria das técnicas mencionadas no BREF não se encontram implementadas, pelo que foi necessário efetuar uma avaliação de riscos ambientais, com recurso à metodologia proposta pela Norma Espanhola UNE 150008:2008 – Análise e Avaliação do Risco Ambiental. Para isso procedeu-se então à formulação de vários cenários de riscos e à quantificação de riscos para à Monteiro, Ribas Embalagens Flexíveis S.A., tendo-se apurado que os riscos estavam avaliados como moderados a altos. Por fim foram sugeridas algumas medidas de prevenção e de minimização do risco que a instalação deve aplicar, como por exemplo, o parque de resíduos perigosos deve ser equipado com kits de contenção de derrames (material absorvente), procedimentos a realizar em caso de emergência, fichas de dados de segurança e o extintor deve ser colocado num local de fácil visualização. No transporte de resíduos perigosos, para o respetivo parque, é aconselhável utilizar bacias de contenção de derrames portáteis e kits de contenção de derrames. Relativamente ao armazém de produtos químicos perigosos é recomendado que se proceda a sua reformulação tendo em conta as MTD apresentadas no subcapítulo 5.2.3 desta dissertação.

Minimization of radiation exposure due to computed tomography in inflammatory bowel disease

Patient awareness and concern regarding the potential health risks from ionizing radiation have peaked recently (Coakley et al., 2011) following widespread press and media coverage of the projected cancer risks from the increasing use of computed tomography (CT) (Berrington et al., 2007). The typical young and educated patient with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may in particular be conscious of his/her exposure to ionising radiation as a result of diagnostic imaging. Cumulative effective doses (CEDs) in patients with IBD have been reported as being high and are rising, primarily due to the more widespread and repeated use of CT (Desmond et al., 2008). Radiologists, technologists, and referring physicians have a responsibility to firstly counsel their patients accurately regarding the actual risks of ionizing radiation exposure; secondly to limit the use of those imaging modalities which involve ionising radiation to clinical situations where they are likely to change management; thirdly to ensure that a diagnostic quality imaging examination is acquired with lowest possible radiation exposure. In this paper, we synopsize available evidence related to radiation exposure and risk and we report advances in low-dose CT technology and examine the role for alternative imaging modalities such as ultrasonography or magnetic resonance imaging which avoid radiation exposure.