Modelling electricity demand with representative load curves

Models for electricity planning require inclusion of demand. Depending on the type of planning, the demand is usually represented as an annual demand for electricity (GWh), a peak demand (MW) or in the form of annual load-duration curves. The demand for electricity varies with the seasons, economic activities, etc. Existing schemes do not capture the dynamics of demand variations that are important for planning. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of representative load curves (RLCs). Advantages of RLCs are demonstrated in a case study for the state of Karnataka in India. Multiple discriminant analysis is used to cluster the 365 daily load curves for 1993-94 into nine RLCs. Further analyses of these RLCs help to identify important factors, namely, seasonal, industrial, agricultural, and residential (water heating and air-cooling) demand variations besides rationing by the utility. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of Load Curves Concerning the Influence of Socioeconomic and Cultural Issues

The increase of electricity demand in Brazil, the lack of the next major hydroelectric reservoirs implementation, and the growth of environmental concerns lead utilities to seek an improved system planning to meet these energy needs. The great diversity of economic, social, climatic, and cultural conditions in the country have been causing a more difficult planning of the power system. The work presented in this paper concerns the development of an algorithm that aims studying the influence of the issues mentioned in load curves. Focus is given to residential consumers. The consumption device with highest influence in the load curve is also identified. The methodology developed gains increasing importance in the system planning and operation, namely in the smart grids context.

Investigation of the relationship between load and loss factors for a Brazilian electric utility

With the considerable increase of the losses in electric utilities of developing countries, such as Brazil, there is an investigation for loss calculation methodologies, considering both technical (inherent of the system) and non-technical (usually associated to the electricity theft) losses. In general, all distribution networks know the load factor, obtained by measuring parameters directly from the network. However, the loss factor, important for the energy loss cost calculation, can only be obtained in a laborious way. Consequently, several formulas have been developed for obtaining the loss factor. Generally, it is used the expression that relates both factors, through the use of a coefficient k. Last reviews introduce a range of factor k within 0.04 - 0.30. In this work, an analysis with real life load curves is presented, determining new values for the coefficient k in a Brazilian electric utility. © 2006 IEEE.

Distinguishing between slip and twinning events during nanoindentation of magnesium alloy AZ31

Nanoindentation was performed in selected grain orientations close to [. 112-0] and [. 101-0] in magnesium alloy Mg-3Al-1Zn. The atomic force microscopy (AFM) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) were used to examine the nanoindentation imprint. Two critical events, yielding and pop-in were observed in the depth-load curves. Slip trace analysis suggests that basal slip is responsible for yielding. The following pop-in events at higher loads are associated with the appearance {. 101-2} twins on the surface. The critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) was estimated to be in the range of 220-400. MPa for the initiation of basal slip.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A statistical analysis of loss factor to determine the energy losses

Given that the total amount of losses in a distribution system is known, with a reliable methodology for the technical loss calculation, the non-technical losses can be obtained by subtraction. A usual method of calculation technical losses in the electric utilities uses two important factors: load factor and the loss factor. The load factor is usually obtained with energy and demand measurements, whereas, to compute the loss factor it is necessary the learning of demand and energy loss, which are not, in general, prone of direct measurements. In this work, a statistical analysis of this relationship using the curves of a sampling of consumers in a specific company is presented. These curves will be summarized in different bands of coefficient k. Then, it will be possible determine where each group of consumer has its major concentration of points. ©2008 IEEE.

Estimação de curvas de carga em pontos de consumo e em transformadores de distribuição

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação de metodologias de cálculo de perdas técnicas em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fluxo de potência em redes de distribuição de energia elétrica considerando incertezas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mineração de dados baseada em inteligência computacional: uma aplicação à determinação da tipologia de curvas de cargas

As concessionárias de energia, para garantir que sua rede seja confiável, necessitam realizar um procedimento para estudo e análise baseado em funções de entrega de energia nos pontos de consumo. Este estudo, geralmente chamado de planejamento de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica, é essencial para garantir que variações na demanda de energia não afetem o desempenho do sistema, que deverá se manter operando de maneira técnica e economicamente viável. Nestes estudos, geralmente são analisados, demanda, tipologia de curva de carga, fator de carga e outros aspectos das cargas existentes. Considerando então a importância da determinação das tipologias de curvas de cargas para as concessionárias de energia em seu processo de planejamento, a Companhia de Eletricidade do Amapá (CEA) realizou uma campanha de medidas de curvas de carga de transformadores de distribuição para obtenção das tipologias de curvas de carga que caracterizam seus consumidores. Neste trabalho apresentam-se os resultados satisfatórios obtidos a partir da utilização de Mineração de Dados baseada em Inteligência Computacional (Mapas Auto-Organizáveis de Kohonen) para seleção das curvas típicas e determinação das tipologias de curvas de carga de consumidores residenciais e industriais da cidade de Macapá, localizada no estado do Amapá. O mapa auto-organizável de Kohonen é um tipo de Rede Neural Artificial que combina operações de projeção e agrupamento, permitindo a realização de análise exploratória de dados, com o objetivo de produzir descrições sumarizadas de grandes conjuntos de dados.

High resolution study of local stress inside alumina - micro mechanical analysis using laser scanning confocal microscope

The aim of this work is to measure the stress inside a hard micro object under extreme compression. To measure the internal stress, we compressed ruby spheres (a-Al2O3: Cr3+, 150 µm diameter) between two sapphire plates. Ruby fluorescence spectrum shifts to longer wavelengths under compression and can be related to the internal stress by a conversion coefficient. A confocal laser scanning microscope was used to excite and collect fluorescence at desired local spots inside the ruby sphere with spatial resolution of about 1 µm3. Under static external loads, the stress distribution within the center plane of the ruby sphere was measured directly for the first time. The result agreed to Hertz’s law. The stress across the contact area showed a hemispherical profile. The measured contact radius was in accord with the calculation by Hertz’s equation. Stress-load curves showed spike-like decrease after entering non-elastic phase, indicating the formation and coalescence of microcracks, which led to relaxing of stress. In the vicinity of the contact area luminescence spectra with multiple peaks were observed. This indicated the presence of domains of different stress, which were mechanically decoupled. Repeated loading cycles were applied to study the fatigue of ruby at the contact region. Progressive fatigue was observed when the load exceeded 1 N. As long as the load did not exceed 2 N stress-load curves were still continuous and could be described by Hertz’s law with a reduced Young’s modulus. Once the load exceeded 2 N, periodical spike-like decreases of the stress could be observed, implying a “memory effect” under repeated loading cycles. Vibration loading with higher frequencies was applied by a piezo. Redistributions of intensity on the fluorescence spectra were observed and it was attributed to the repopulation of the micro domains of different elasticity. Two stages of under vibration loading were suggested. In the first stage continuous damage carried on until certain limit, by which the second stage, e.g. breakage, followed in a discontinuous manner.

Pre-investigation of water electrolysis for flexible energy storage at large scales: the case of the Spanish power system

This report analyzes the basis of hydrogen and power integration strategies, by using water electrolysis processes as a means of flexible energy storage at large scales. It is a prospective study, where the scope is to describe the characteristics of current power systems (like the generation technologies, load curves and grid constraints), and define future scenarios of hydrogen for balancing the electrical grids, considering the efficiency, economy and easiness of operations. We focus in the "Spanish case", which is a good example for planning the transition from a power system holding large reserve capacities, high penetration of renewable energies and limited interconnections, to a more sustainable energy system being capable to optimize the volumes, the regulation modes, the utilization ratios and the impacts of the installations. Thus, we explore a novel aspect of the "hydrogen economy" which is based in the potentials of existing power systems and the properties of hydrogen as energy carrier, by considering the electricity generation and demand globally and determining the optimal size and operation of the hydrogen production processes along the country; e.g. the cost production of hydrogen becomes viable for a base-load scenario with 58 TWh/year of power surplus at 0.025 V/kWh, and large number electrolyzer plants (50 MW) running in variable mode (1-12 kA/m2)

The transition from severe to mild wear in law alloy steel

The wear rates of sliding surfaces are significantly reduced if mild oxidational wear can be encouraged. It is hence of prime importance in the interest of component life and material conservation to understand the factors necessary to promote mild, oxidational wear, The present work investigates the fundamental mechanism of the running-in wear of BS EN 31!EN 8 steel couples. under various conditions of load. speed and test duration. Unidirectional sliding experiments were carried out on a pin-on~disc wear machine where frictional force, wear rate, temperature and contact resistance were continuously monitored during each test. Physical methods of analysis (x-ray, scanning electron microscopy etc.) were used to examine the wear debris and worn samples. The wear rate versus load curves revealed mild wear transitions, which under long duration of running, categorized mild wear into four distinct regions.α-Fe20s. Fe304, FeO and an oxide mixture were the predominant oxides in four regions of oxidational wear which were identified above the Welsh T2 transition. The wear curves were strongly effected by the speed and test duration. A surface model was used to calculate the surface parameters, and the results were found to be comparable with the experimentally observed parameters. Oxidation was responsible for the transition from severe to mild wear at a load corresponding to the Welsh T2 transition. In the running-in period sufficient energy input and surface hardness enabled oxide growth rate to increase and eventually exceeded the rate of removal, where mild wear ensued. A model was developed to predict the wear volume up to the transition. Remarkable agreement was found between the theoretical prediction and the experimentally-measured values. The oxidational mechanjsm responsible for transitjon to mild wear under equilibrium conditions was related to the formation of thick homogenous oxide plateaux on subsurface hardened layers, FeO was the oxide formed initially at the onset of mild wear but oxide type changed.during the total running period to give an equilibrium oxide whose nature depended on the loads applied.

Fire design rules for load bearing cold-formed steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fire curves

Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are extensively used in the building industry due to the many advantages they provide over other wall systems. Although LSF walls have been used widely, fire design of LSF walls is based on approximate prescriptive methods based on limited fire tests. Also these fire tests were conducted using the standard fire curve [1] and the applicability of available design rules to realistic design fire curves has not been verified. This paper investigates the accuracy of existing fire design rules in the current cold-formed steel standards and the modifications proposed by previous researchers. Of these the recently developed design rules by Gunalan and Mahendran [2] based on Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 [3] and AS/NZS 4600 [4] for standard fire exposure [1] were investigated in detail to determine their applicability to predict the axial compression strengths and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves. This paper also presents the fire performance results of LSF walls exposed to a range of realistic fire curves obtained using a finite element analysis based parametric study. The results from the parametric study were used to develop a simplified design method based on the critical hot flange temperature to predict the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic fire curves. Finally, the stud failure times (fire resistance rating) obtained from the fire design rules and the simplified design method were compared with parametric study results for LSF walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibres under realistic fire curves.

A framework for predicting the residual load carrying capacity of concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments

Reinforced concrete structures are susceptible to a variety of deterioration mechanisms due to creep and shrinkage, alkali-silica reaction (ASR), carbonation, and corrosion of the reinforcement. The deterioration problems can affect the integrity and load carrying capacity of the structure. Substantial research has been dedicated to these various mechanisms aiming to identify the causes, reactions, accelerants, retardants and consequences. This has improved our understanding of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures. However, the strengthening of reinforced concrete structures for durability has to date been mainly undertaken after expert assessment of field data followed by the development of a scheme to both terminate continuing degradation, by separating the structure from the environment, and strengthening the structure. The process does not include any significant consideration of the residual load-bearing capacity of the structure and the highly variable nature of estimates of such remaining capacity. Development of performance curves for deteriorating bridge structures has not been attempted due to the difficulty in developing a model when the input parameters have an extremely large variability. This paper presents a framework developed for an asset management system which assesses residual capacity and identifies the most appropriate rehabilitation method for a given reinforced concrete structure exposed to aggressive environments. In developing the framework, several industry consultation sessions have been conducted to identify input data required, research methodology and output knowledge base. Capturing expert opinion in a useable knowledge base requires development of a rule based formulation, which can subsequently be used to model the reliability of the performance curve of a reinforced concrete structure exposed to a given environment.