Likelihood, entropy and species diversity; some comparisons in a Sumatran forest

In attempts to conserve the species diversity of trees in tropical forests, monitoring of diversity in inventories is essential. For effective monitoring it is crucial to be able to make meaningful comparisons between different regions, or comparisons of the diversity of a region at different times. Many species diversity measures have been defined, including the well-known abundance and entropy measures. All such measures share a number of problems in their effective practical use. However, probably the most problematic is that they cannot be used to meaningfully assess changes, since thay are only concerned with the number of species or the proportions of the population/sample which they constitute. A natural (though simplistic) model of a species frequency distribution is the multinomial distribution. It is shown that the likelihood analysis of samples from such a distribution are closely related to a number of entropy-type measures of diversity. Hence a comparison of the species distribution on two plots, using the multinomial model and likelihood methods, leads to generalised cross-entropy as the LRT test statistic of the null that the species distributions are the same. Data from 30 contiguous plots in a forest in Sumatra are analysed using these methods. Significance tests between all pairs of plots yield extremely low p-values, indicating strongly that it ought to been "Obvious" that the observed species distributions are different on different plots. In terms of how different the plots are, and how these differences vary over the whole study site, a display of the degrees of freedom of the test, (equivalent to the number of shared species) seems to be the most revealing indicator, as well as the simplest.

Sequence Changes in Six Variants of Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus and Their Phylogenetic Relationships

The DNA of three biological variants, G1, Ic and G2, which originated from the same greenhouse isolate of rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), was cloned and sequenced. Comparison of the sequences revealed small differences in genome sizes. The variants were between 95 and 99% identical at the nucleotide and amino acid levels. Alignment of the three genome sequences with those of three published RTBV sequences (Phi-1, Phi-2 and Phi-3) revealed numerous nucleotide substitutions and some insertions and deletions. The published RTBV sequences originated from the same greenhouse isolate at IRRI 20, 11 and 9 years ago. All open reading frames (ORFs) and known functional domains were conserved across the six variants. The cysteine-rich region of ORF3 showed the greatest variation. When the six DNA sequences from IRRI were compared with that of an isolate from Malaysia (Serdang), similar changes were observed in the cysteine-rich region in addition to other nucleotide substitutions and deletions across the genome. The aligned nucleotide sequences of the IRRI variants and Serdang were used to analyse phylogenetic relationships by the bootstrapped parsimony, distance and maximum-likelihood methods. The isolates clustered in three groups: Serdang alone; Ic and G1; and Phi-1, Phi-2, Phi-3 and G2. The distribution of phylogenetically informative residues in the IRRI sequences shared with the Serdang sequence and the differing tree topologies for segments of the genome suggested that recombination, as well as substitutions and insertions or deletions, has played a role in the evolution of RTBV variants. The significance and implications of these evolutionary forces are discussed in comparison with badnaviruses and caulimoviruses.

Multivariate variance-components analysis in DTI

Twin studies are a major research direction in imaging genetics, a new field, which combines algorithms from quantitative genetics and neuroimaging to assess genetic effects on the brain. In twin imaging studies, it is common to estimate the intraclass correlation (ICC), which measures the resemblance between twin pairs for a given phenotype. In this paper, we extend the commonly used Pearson correlation to a more appropriate definition, which uses restricted maximum likelihood methods (REML). We computed proportion of phenotypic variance due to additive (A) genetic factors, common (C) and unique (E) environmental factors using a new definition of the variance components in the diffusion tensor-valued signals. We applied our analysis to a dataset of Diffusion Tensor Images (DTI) from 25 identical and 25 fraternal twin pairs. Differences between the REML and Pearson estimators were plotted for different sample sizes, showing that the REML approach avoids severe biases when samples are smaller. Measures of genetic effects were computed for scalar and multivariate diffusion tensor derived measures including the geodesic anisotropy (tGA) and the full diffusion tensors (DT), revealing voxel-wise genetic contributions to brain fiber microstructure.

Learning in Network Games

We report the findings of an experiment designed to study how people learn and make decisions in network games. Network games offer new opportunities to identify learning rules, since on networks (compared to e.g. random matching) more rules differ in terms of their information requirements. Our experimental design enables us to observe both which actions participants choose and which information they consult before making their choices. We use this information to estimate learning types using maximum likelihood methods. There is substantial heterogeneity in learning types. However, the vast majority of our participants' decisions are best characterized by reinforcement learning or (myopic) best-response learning. The distribution of learning types seems fairly stable across contexts. Neither network topology nor the position of a player in the network seem to substantially affect the estimated distribution of learning types.

Defining plausible migration rates based on historical tagging data: a Bayesian mark-recapture model applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus)

A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

MtDNA phylogeny provides evidence of generic polyphyleticism for East Asian bagrid catfishes

We explore the intrafamilial relationships of East Asian bagrid catfishes (Hemibagrus, Pseudobagrus, Pelteobagrus, and Leiocassis) based on 245 sequences of 1092 bp mitochondrial cytochrome b fragments. Four haplotypes were found to be shared by Pseudobagrus ussuriensis, Pelteobagrus vachelli and Pelteobagrus nitidus. Phylogenetic trees were performed using the neighbor joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian likelihood methods. The phylogenetic trees based on NJ, MP, ML and BL inferences strongly support polyphyleticism for the currently recognized genera Pseudobagrus, Pelteobagrus and Leiocassis. However, the species currently assigned to these three genera form a robustly monophyletic group with relatively low genetic divergence. The structure of maxillary barbels and serrations on the anterior edge of the pectoral spines seem to be indicatory of appropriate phylogenetic traits. We propose that only Hemibagrus and Pseudobagrus are the only valid genera of East Asian bagrids.

圈养大熊猫遗传结构研究

大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)是我国特有的濒危野生动物之一，迁地保护已经成为大熊猫物种保护的一个重要方面。当前大熊猫圈养种群数量增长很快，但是其“多雄配一雌”的交配（配种方式），以及生产过程中记录遗失等原因，造成圈养种群普遍存在亲子关系不清、谱系混乱等问题。为了加强遗传管理，有必要进行亲子关系鉴定、完善谱系；还需要检测种群的基因多样性水平，并在此基础上提出相应的遗传管理建议。 本研究应用9个具有高度多态性的大熊猫微卫星标记，对来自成都大熊猫繁育研究基地2006和2007年度出生的17只大熊猫幼崽及其全部候选父母共37个样品做了基因型分析；然后应用最大似然法，判断幼崽的父－子关系。同时，还对来自卧龙大熊猫保护研究中心的31只大熊猫个体也做了基因分型。将两个种群的数据进行比较：1）等位基因多样性和杂合度水平；2）通过F统计法，分析两个种群的遗传分化水平；3）通过遗传距离法，对所有个体进行聚类分析。 研究结果表明： 1）在母子关系不清的情况下，9个微卫星标记联合的父亲鉴定排除概率E为0.940090；而在母子关系确实的条件下，E= 0.993933。由于本研究中所有后代的母亲都是清楚的，因此这9个微卫星位点能够有效用于圈养大熊猫的亲子鉴定。似然法分析也表明，本研究所获得的亲子鉴定结果置信度在95％以上。 2）2005年种源交换后，成都大熊猫的等位基因多样性和杂合度水平都略高于卧龙种群（但没有达到显著水平），两个种群间的遗传分化水平也有所降低。但是，与卧龙相比，成都种群面临较大的近交压力。 基于以上研究结果，我们建议：进一步加强种源交换和基因交流，把两个种群当作一个遗传单元(MU)来进行管理。 Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is one of the endangerd wildlife endemic to China, and the ex-situ breeding become more and more important for the conservation of this speices. Although the captive population is expanding rapidly, the uncertainty occurs because the paternities of cubs are not clear due to the breeding pattern of “multiple male to single female,”as well as the records lost, resulting in errors in the studbook. For this reason, the paternity of the cubs and the genetic diversity of the captive giant pandas should be tested carefully to get information for the genetic management in the future. 9 polymorphism microsatellite markers were used to do paternity assignment for the 17 cubs born in 2006 and 2007 from Chengdu Research Base for Giant Panda Breeding (CGB) based on the maximum-likelihood methods. A total of 37 individuals were sampled, including all the candidate dams and sires. These samples were also used for comparing with 31 individuals sampling from Wolong China Research and Conservation Center for the Giant Panda (WCG). The comparing indexes were: 1) Allelic diversity and heterozygosity; 2) Genetic differentiation based on F-statistic; 3) Cluster analysis based on genetic distance. The results show that: 1) If the mother is unkown, the combined exclusion probability using these 9 loci is 0.940090. If the mother is known then the exclusion probability is 0.993933. Since the dam-offspring relationship is known in captive populations, the results could resolve unknown paternities in the study. And the confidence level of the results is 95% based on the likelihood methods. 2) The allelic diversity and the heterozygosity of CGB were higher than WCG (n ot significant), and the genetic differentiation was reduced a little since the genetic exchange between two populations in 2005. However, the population of CGB will be threatening by inbreeding seriously than that of WCG. From above, we suggest to reiforce the genetic exchange and geneflow between CGB and WCG, and these two populations should be regarded as one genetic management unit (MU).

Environmental context explains Lévy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators

An optimal search theory, the so-called Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1), predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Levy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey(2-4). Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Levy behaviour has recently been questioned(5,6). Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Levy flights in the wild remains unclear. Crucially, moreover, it has not been tested whether observed movement patterns across natural landscapes having different expected resource distributions conform to the theory's central predictions. Here we use maximum-likelihood methods to test for Levy patterns in relation to environmental gradients in the largest animal movement data set assembled for this purpose. Strong support was found for Levy search patterns across 14 species of open-ocean predatory fish (sharks, tuna, billfish and ocean sunfish), with some individuals switching between Levy and Brownian movement as they traversed different habitat types. We tested the spatial occurrence of these two principal patterns and found Levy behaviour to be associated with less productive waters (sparser prey) and Brownian movements to be associated with productive shelf or convergence-front habitats (abundant prey). These results are consistent with the Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1,7), supporting the contention(8,9) that organism search strategies naturally evolved in such a way that they exploit optimal Levy patterns.

Environmental context explains Levy and Brownian movement patterns of marine predators

An optimal search theory, the so-called Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1), predicts that predators should adopt search strategies known as Levy flights where prey is sparse and distributed unpredictably, but that Brownian movement is sufficiently efficient for locating abundant prey(2-4). Empirical studies have generated controversy because the accuracy of statistical methods that have been used to identify Levy behaviour has recently been questioned(5,6). Consequently, whether foragers exhibit Levy flights in the wild remains unclear. Crucially, moreover, it has not been tested whether observed movement patterns across natural landscapes having different expected resource distributions conform to the theory's central predictions. Here we use maximum-likelihood methods to test for Levy patterns in relation to environmental gradients in the largest animal movement data set assembled for this purpose. Strong support was found for Levy search patterns across 14 species of open-ocean predatory fish (sharks, tuna, billfish and ocean sunfish), with some individuals switching between Levy and Brownian movement as they traversed different habitat types. We tested the spatial occurrence of these two principal patterns and found Levy behaviour to be associated with less productive waters (sparser prey) and Brownian movements to be associated with productive shelf or convergence-front habitats (abundant prey). These results are consistent with the Levy-flight foraging hypothesis(1,7), supporting the contention(8,9) that organism search strategies naturally evolved in such a way that they exploit optimal Levy patterns.

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

An R implementation for generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) model is a positively skewed statistical distribution that has received great attention in recent decades. A generalized version of this model was derived based on symmetrical distributions in the real line named the generalized BS (GBS) distribution. The R package named gbs was developed to analyze data from GBS models. This package contains probabilistic and reliability indicators and random number generators from GBS distributions. Parameter estimates for censored and uncensored data can also be obtained by means of likelihood methods from the gbs package. Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic methods were also implemented in this package in order to check the suitability of the GBS models. in this article, the capabilities and features of the gbs package are illustrated by using simulated and real data sets. Shape and reliability analyses for GBS models are presented. A simulation study for evaluating the quality and sensitivity of the estimation method developed in the package is provided and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Beta-binomial/Poisson regression models for repeated bivariate counts

We analyze data obtained from a study designed to evaluate training effects on the performance of certain motor activities of Parkinson`s disease patients. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit beta-binomial/Poisson regression models tailored to evaluate the effects of training on the numbers of attempted and successful specified manual movements in 1 min periods, controlling for disease stage and use of the preferred hand. We extend models previously considered by other authors in univariate settings to account for the repeated measures nature of the data. The results suggest that the expected number of attempts and successes increase with training, except for patients with advanced stages of the disease using the non-preferred hand. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Taxonomia e filogenia de algumas espécies de Mazama (Mammalia; Cervidae) da Colômbia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)