Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

An important problem in descriptive and prescriptive research in decision making is to identify regions of rationality, i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the preceding, and models exploiting dominance. We use twenty simulated and four empirical datasets for illustration. We further provide an overview by regressing heuristic performance on factors characterizing environments. Overall, sensible heuristics generally yield similar choices in many environments. However, selection of the appropriate heuristic can be important in some regions (e.g., if there is low inter-correlation among attributes/cues). Since our work assumes a hit or miss decision criterion, we conclude by outlining extensions for exploring the effects of different loss functions.

Simple models for multi-attribute choice with many alternatives: When it does and does not pay to face tradeoffs with binary attributes

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Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of bothrules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifiesthe relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best'(TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify threefactors: how the environment weights variables; characteristics of choicesets; and error. For cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTBis effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights(EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become morecompensatory. In the presence of error, TTB and similar models do not predictmuch better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. We emphasizepsychological implications and the need for more complete theories of theenvironment that include the role of error.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Multiple Public Goods and Lexicographic Preferences Replacement Principle.

We study the problem of locating two public goods for a group of agents with single-peaked preferences over an interval. An alternative specifies a location for each public good. In Miyagawa (1998), each agent consumes only his most preferred public good without rivalry. We extend preferences lexicographically and characterize the class of single-peaked preference rules by Pareto-optimality and replacement-domination. This result is considerably different from the corresponding characterization by Miyagawa (2001a).

Radiative decay of the X(3872) as a mixed molecule-charmonium state in QCD sum rules

We use QCD sum rules (QCDSR) to calculate the width of the radiative decay of the meson X(3872), assumed to be a mixture between charmonium and exotic molecular [c (q) over bar][q (c) over bar] states with J(PC) = 1(++). We find that in a small range for the values of the mixing angle, 5 degrees <= theta <= 13 degrees, we get the branching ratio Gamma(X -> J/psi gamma)/Gamma(X -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-)) = 0.19 +/- 0.13, which is in agreement, with the experimental value. This result is compatible with the analysis of the mass and decay width of the mode J/psi(n pi) performed in the same approach.

Bs0 meson and the Bs0BK coupling from QCD sum rules

We evaluate the mass of the B(s0) scalar meson and the coupling constant in the B(s0)BK vertex in the framework of QCD sum rules. We consider the B(s0) as a tetraquark state to evaluate its mass. We get m(Bs0) = (5.85 +/- 0.13) GeV, which is in agreement, considering the uncertainties, with predictions supposing it as a b (s) over bar state or a B (K) over bar bound state with J(P) = 0(+). To evaluate the g(Bs0BK) coupling, we use the three-point correlation functions of the vertex, considering B(s0) as a normal b (s) over bar state. The obtained coupling constant is: g(Bs0BK) = (16.3 +/- 3.2) GeV. This number is in agreement with light-cone QCD sum rules calculation. We have also compared the decay width of the B(s0) -> BK process considering the B(s0) to be a b (s) over bar state and a BK molecular state. The width obtained for the BK molecular state is twice as big as the width obtained for the b (s) over bar state. Therefore, we conclude that with the knowledge of the mass and the decay width of the B(s0) meson, one can discriminate between the different theoretical proposals for its structure.

QCD sum rules for the X(3872) as a mixed molecule-charmonium state

We use QCD sum rules to test the nature of the meson X(3872), assumed to be a mixture between charmonium and exotic molecular [c (q) over bar][q (c) over bar] states with J(PC) = 1(++). We find that there is only a small range for the values of the mixing angle theta that can provide simultaneously good agreement with the experimental value of the mass and the decay width, and this range is 5(0) <= theta <= 3(0). In this range we get m(X) = (3.77 +/- 0.18) GeV and Gamma(X -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-)) = (9.3 +/- 6.9) MeV, which are compatible, within the errors, with the experimental values. We, therefore, conclude that the X(3872) is approximately 97% a charmonium state with 3% admixture of similar to 88% D(0)D*(0) molecule and similar to 12% D(+)D*(-) molecule.

Width of exotics from QCD sum rules : Tetraquarks or molecules?

We investigate the widths of the recently observed charmonium like resonances X(3872), Z(4430), and Z(2)(4250) using QCD sum rules. Extending previous analyses regarding these states as diquark-antiquark states or molecules of D mesons, we introduce the Breit-Wigner function in the pole term. We find that introducing the width increases the mass at the small Borel window region. Using the operator-product expansion up to dimension 8, we find that the sum rules based on interpolating current with molecular components give a stable Borel curve from which both the masses and widths of these resonances can be well obtained. Thus the QCD sum rule approach strongly favors the molecular description of these states.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Quasispin graded-fermion formalism and gl(m vertical bar n)down arrow osp(m vertical bar n) branching rules

The graded-fermion algebra and quasispin formalism are introduced and applied to obtain the gl(m\n)down arrow osp(m\n) branching rules for the two- column tensor irreducible representations of gl(m\n), for the case m less than or equal to n(n > 2). In the case m < n, all such irreducible representations of gl(m\n) are shown to be completely reducible as representations of osp(m\n). This is also shown to be true for the case m=n, except for the spin-singlet representations, which contain an indecomposable representation of osp(m\n) with composition length 3. These branching rules are given in fully explicit form. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0022-2488(99)04410-2].

The stability of the equilibrium outcomes in the admission games induced by stable matching rules

A stable matching rule is used as the outcome function for the Admission game where colleges behave straightforwardly and the students` strategies are given by their preferences over the colleges. We show that the college-optimal stable matching rule implements the set of stable matchings via the Nash equilibrium (NE) concept. For any other stable matching rule the strategic behavior of the students may lead to outcomes that are not stable under the true preferences. We then introduce uncertainty about the matching selected and prove that the natural solution concept is that of NE in the strong sense. A general result shows that the random stable matching rule, as well as any stable matching rule, implements the set of stable matchings via NE in the strong sense. Precise answers are given to the strategic questions raised.

Decision rules for egg recognition are related to functional roles and chemical cues in the queenless ant Dinoponera quadriceps

The capacity to distinguish colony members from strangers is a key component in social life. In social insects, this extends to the brood and involves discrimination of queen eggs. Chemical substances communicate colony affiliation for both adults and brood; thus, in theory, all colony members should be able to recognize fellow nestmates. In this study, we investigate the ability of Dinoponera quadriceps workers to discriminate nestmate and non-nestmate eggs based on cuticular hydrocarbon composition. We analyzed whether cuticular hydrocarbons present on the eggs provide cues of discrimination. The results show that egg recognition in D. quadriceps is related to both age and the functional role of workers. Brood care workers were able to distinguish nestmate from non-nestmate eggs, while callow and forager workers were unable to do so.