Ultrasound detection rate of single umbilical artery in the first trimester of pregnancy

Objective To determine accuracy of first trimester detection of single umbilical artery (SUA). Methods The number of vessels in the umbilical cord was examined in a prospective cohort of 779 singleton, low-risk, unselected pregnancies, in the first (11-13 weeks) and second (17-24 weeks) trimesters, using both power and color Doppler and after delivery, by placental histopathologic exam. Concordance between first and second trimester findings to postnatal diagnoses was compared by calculating kappa coefficients. Results There was medium concordance between the findings in the first trimester and the postnatal diagnoses (kappa = 0.52) and high concordance (kappa = 0.89) for the second trimester scan. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the findings in the first trimester were 57.1, 98.9, 50.0 and 99.2% and for the second trimester were 86.6, 99.9, 92.9 and 99.7%. Conclusion Sensitivity and positive predictive value of first trimester scan to identify an isolated SUA in a prospective unselected population was poor. Diagnosis of isolated SUA as well as a definitive judgment about the presence of associated anomalies would still require a scan in the second trimester. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Detection rate of FNA cytology in medullary thyroid carcinoma: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The early detection of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) can improve patient prognosis, because histological stage and patient age at diagnosis are highly relevant prognostic factors. As a consequence, delay in the diagnosis and/or incomplete surgical treatment should correlate with a poorer prognosis for patients. Few papers have evaluated the specific capability of fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) to detect MTC, and small series have been reported. This study conducts a meta-analysis of published data on the diagnostic performance of FNAC in MTC to provide more robust estimates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A comprehensive computer literature search of the PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases was conducted by searching for the terms 'medullary thyroid' AND 'cytology', 'FNA', 'FNAB', 'FNAC', 'fine needle' or 'fine-needle'. The search was updated until 21 March 2014, and no language restrictions were used. RESULTS: Fifteen relevant studies and 641 MTC lesions that had undergone FNAC were included. The detection rate (DR) of FNAC in patients with MTC (diagnosed as 'MTC' or 'suspicious for MTC') on a per lesion-based analysis ranged from 12·5% to 88·2%, with a pooled estimate of 56·4% (95% CI: 52·6-60·1%). The included studies were statistically heterogeneous in their estimates of DR (I-square >50%). Egger's regression intercept for DR pooling was 0·03 (95% CI: -3·1 to 3·2, P = 0·9). The study that reported the largest MTC series had a DR of 45%. Data on immunohistochemistry for calcitonin in diagnosing MTC were inconsistent for the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The presented meta-analysis demonstrates that FNAC is able to detect approximately one-half of MTC lesions. These findings suggest that other techniques may be needed in combination with FNAC to diagnose MTC and avoid false negative results.

Increasing detection rate of user-to-root attacks using genetic algorithms

An extensive set of machine learning and pattern classification techniques trained and tested on KDD dataset failed in detecting most of the user-to-root attacks. This paper aims to provide an approach for mitigating negative aspects of the mentioned dataset, which led to low detection rates. Genetic algorithm is employed to implement rules for detecting various types of attacks. Rules are formed of the features of the dataset identified as the most important ones for each attack type. In this way we introduce high level of generality and thus achieve high detection rates, but also gain high reduction of the system training time. Thenceforth we re-check the decision of the user-to- root rules with the rules that detect other types of attacks. In this way we decrease the false-positive rate. The model was verified on KDD 99, demonstrating higher detection rates than those reported by the state- of-the-art while maintaining low false-positive rate.

Enhanced flat adenoma detection rate with high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan for average-risk colorectal cancer screening

Background and aim: The usefulness of high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan (HD+i-SCAN) for average-risk colorectal cancer screening has not been fully assessed. The detection rate of adenomas and other measurements such as the number of adenomas per colonoscopy and the flat adenoma detection rate have been recognized as markers of colonoscopy quality. The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic performance of an HD+i-SCAN with that of standard resolution white-light colonoscope. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected screening colonoscopy database. A comparative analysis of the diagnostic yield of an HD+i-SCAN or standard resolution colonoscopy for average-risk colorectal screening was conducted. Results: During the period of study, 155/163 (95.1%) patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 56.9 years. Sixty of 155 (39%) colonoscopies were performed using a HD+i-SCAN. Adenoma-detection-rates during the withdrawal of the standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 29.5% and 30% (p = n.s.). Adenoma/colonoscopy values for standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 0.46 (SD = 0.9) and 0.72 (SD = 1.3) (p = n.s.). A greater number of flat adenomas were detected in the HD+i-SCAN group (6/60 vs. 2/95) (p < .05). Likewise, serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy were also higher in the HD+i-SCAN group. Conclusions: A HD+i-SCAN colonoscopy increases the flat adenoma detection rate and serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy compared to a standard colonoscopy in average-risk screening population. HD+i-SCAN is a simple, available procedure that can be helpful, even for experienced providers. The performance of HD+i-SCAN and substantial prevalence of flat lesions in our average-risk screening cohort support its usefulness in improving the efficacy of screening colonoscopies.

Sorologia Anti PGL-1 e risco de ocorrência de hanseníase em área de alta endemicidade do Estado de São Paulo: quatro anos de seguimento

Os testes sorológicos para diagnóstico de hanseníase, usando o glicolipídeo-fenólico-1 (PGL-1), considerado antígeno específico do M. leprae, têm aberto algumas possibilidades de estudo do comportamento epidemiológico desta doença. Algumas questões, como tempo de latência da doença, infecção subclínica e importância do contato intra-domiciliar (contatos) no controle da endemia, puderam ser melhor analisadas usando este instrumental. Este estudo teve por objetivo verificar a existência de associação entre a situação sorológica e a ocorrência de hanseníase. Foram seguidas, durante 4 anos, 6.520 pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 5 anos, submetidas no início do seguimento ao teste sorológico Anti PGL-1, pertencentes ao universo de 7.416 habitantes da área urbana de um município paulista caracterizado por elevada endemicidade de hanseníase. Foi identificado um grupo de 590 indivíduos soropositivos (9,0 %). Foram diagnosticados, no período, 82 casos novos de hanseníase, 26 no grupo de soropositivos (441 casos novos/10.000 indivíduos) e 48 no de soronegativos (81/10.000). Entre os que não fizeram sorologia, surgiram 8 casos novos (89/10.000). Procurou-se controlar, na análise, a condição de contato, dado que a taxa de soropositividade padronizada por idade e sexo era de 9,61% no grupo de contatos e 7,65% no de não-contatos. Tomando-se os não-contatos soronegativos como o grupo de não expostos, foram calculados os riscos relativos de adoecimento no período, a partir das taxas de detecção padronizadas por idade, resultando no seguinte: os contatos ID soropositivos apresentaram a taxa de 1.704/10.000, 27 vezes maior que a dos não-expostos, igual a 63/10.000; os não-contatos soropositivos e os contatos soronegativos apresentaram taxas, respectivamente, de 274 e 198/10.000, ambas maiores que as dos não-expostos e iguais entre si. A soropositividade associou-se à elevação de 8,6 vezes do risco de hanseníase entre os contatos e de 4,4 entre os não-contatos. Na situação epidemiológica estudada, caracterizada por elevada endemicidade de hanseníase, 50% dos casos novos surgiram entre os não-contatos soronegativos, ou seja, sem fonte de infecção conhecida. Portanto, o teste anti-PGL-1 usado revela-se, na prática, de pouca aplicabilidade. Resta estudar ainda o comportamento da sorologia anti-PGL-1 em áreas de média e baixa endemicidade para que se possa tirar conclusões mais consubstanciadas sobre sua utilidade no controle da endemia. Recomenda-se o aprofundamento das pesquisas sorológicas e de outras que aprimorem o diagnóstico precoce da infecção subclínica, inclusive para detecção de formas paucibacilares, para se ampliar as possibilidades de influir no controle endêmico.

Spatial patterns of leprosy in a hyperendemic state in Northern Brazil, 2001-2012

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial patterns of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins. METHODS This study was based on morbidity data obtained from the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System), of the Ministry of Health. All new leprosy cases in individuals residing in the state of Tocantins, between 2001 and 2012, were included. In addition to the description of general disease indicators, a descriptive spatial analysis, empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial dependence analysis were performed by means of global and local Moran’s indexes. RESULTS A total of 14,542 new cases were recorded during the period under study. Based on the annual case detection rate, 77.0% of the municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (> 40 cases/100,000 inhabitants). Regarding the annual case detection rate in < 15 years-olds, 65.4% of the municipalities were hyperendemic (10.0 to 19.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants); 26.6% had a detection rate of grade 2 disability cases between 5.0 and 9.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants. There was a geographical overlap of clusters of municipalities with high detection rates in hyperendemic areas. Clusters with high disease risk (global Moran’s index: 0.51; p < 0.001), ongoing transmission (0.47; p < 0.001) and late diagnosis (0.44; p < 0.001) were identified mainly in the central-north and southwestern regions of Tocantins. CONCLUSIONS We identified high-risk clusters for transmission and late diagnosis of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins. Surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in these high-risk municipalities.

Epidemiological pattern of leprosy in an endemic area of North-East Brazil, 1996-2005: the supporting role of a Nongovernmental Organization

In an endemic area of North-East Brazil (the town of Picos, State of Piauí), a nongovernmental organization (NGO) supported the activity against leprosy in connection with governmental health organizations and local agents. The indicators of leprosy elimination were compared over time (within Picos) and across space (Picos versus Piauí). The case detection rate, above 8 per 10,000 people in the last two years of observation, increased over time in Picos (p=0.010). This finding could be due to active detection activities rather than expanding endemicity, as suggested by the reduction in leprosy in children (p=0.053) and the decrease in the proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability (p<0.001). These indicators showed a more favorable time trend in the city than in the State, suggesting that NGO activity was supportive in the battle towards leprosy control.

Leprosy in Buriticupu, state of Maranhão: active search in the general population

INTRODUCTION: This study was developed to evaluate the situation of leprosy in the general population of the municipality of Buriticupu, State of Maranhão, Brazil. METHODS: We used the method of active search to identify new cases from 2008 to 2010. Bacilloscopy of intradermal scrapings was performed in all patients with skin lesions compatible with leprosy, and histopathological examination in those who had doubts on the definition of the clinical form. RESULTS: The study included 19,104 individuals, with 42 patients diagnosed with leprosy after clinical examination, representing a detection rate of 219.84 per 100,000 inhabitants. The predominant clinical presentation was tuberculoid with 24 (57.1%) cases, followed by borderline with 11, indeterminate with four, and lepromatous with three cases. The study also allowed the identification of 81 patients with a history of leprosy and other skin diseases, such as pityriasis versicolor, dermatophytosis, scabies, vitiligo, and skin carcinoma. The binomial test showed that the proportion of cases in the headquarters was significantly higher than that in the villages (p = 0.04), and the generalized exact test showed that there was no association between age and clinical form (p = 0.438) and between age and gender (p = 0.083). CONCLUSIONS: The elevated detection rate defines the city as hyperendemic for leprosy; the active search for cases, as well as the organization of health services, is an important method for disease control.

Leprosy and pregnancy in the State of Para: an epidemiological perspective

Introduction A few older publications describe leprosy associated with pregnancy, a situation that has been linked to leprosy exacerbation. This study aimed to describe the detection rate of this association in the State of Pará by county and Integration Region (IR) from 2007 to 2009 via an analysis of sociodemographic, epidemiological and operational indices. Methods This was a descriptive study using information generated by the SINAN. The Detection Coefficient of the Leprosy and Pregnancy Association (DCLP) epidemiological index was constructed to help interpret the endemicity parameters. The disease was considered hyperendemic when greater than two cases per 10,000 inhabitants were identified. Results During the study period, 149 associations were detected, with 14 hyperendemic counties: seven in 2007, five in 2008 and two in 2009. The Carajás Integrated Region displayed the highest DCLP index in the period. Eldorado dos Carajás had the single highest DCLP index (5.7/10,000 inhabitants, 2008), whereas the DCLP index in Conceição do Araguaia was very high in all three years. However, most counties displayed low or medium DCLP indices. The annual averages were 0.31 DCLP (2007), bass; 0.30 (2008), bass and 0.19 (2009), bass. The average DCLP index was 0.26, which is considered low. Three clusters of medium endemicity were identified by the average DCLP in the study period. Conclusions The analyses indicated that the surveillance program is still unsatisfactory in Pará. The interpretation of the endemicity parameters enabled qualitative and quantitative analyses to determine the epidemiological panorama of this association. The identification of high endemicity requires further clarification.

Detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA by polymerase chain reaction in the blood of individuals, eight years after completion of anti-leprosy therapy

Thirty eight patients with indeterminate leprosy (HI), at least 4 to 6 years after discharge from multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) schemes of anti leprosy multidrug therapy (MDT), were submitted to traditional diagnostic procedures for leprosy and to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of different clinical samples for detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA. No significant difference was observed for any of the parameters analyzed between PB or MB schemes of treatment and no indications were found for more efficient outcome of HI using the MB scheme. Remarkably, 18 (54.5%) of the individuals were PCR positive in at least one of the samples: positivity of PCR was highest in blood samples and four individuals were PCR positive in blood and some other sample. Upon comparison of PCR results with clinical and histopathological parameters, no correlation was found between PCR-positivity and eventual relapse. This is the first report on detection of M. leprae DNA in PB patients, more than half a decade after completion of MDT, suggesting that live bacilli are present and circulating much longer than expected, although reinfection of the individuals can not be excluded. Overall, we feel that because of the high sensitivity of the assay, extreme care should be taken about association of PCR results, efficacy of treatment and disease status.

Leprosy frequency in the world, 1999-2010

In 1991, the World Health Organization (WHO) committed to reducing the prevalence of leprosy to below 1 in 10,000 inhabitants by 2000. Significant improvements in leprosy control have occurred, but leprosy remains a public health problem in many countries due to its high incidence and rate of transmission. This paper reviews data published by the WHO in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. These data sets included 148 countries or territories that reported to the WHO at least once. Only four countries reported higher prevalence rates in 2010 than in 2000 and eight reported higher case detection rate (CDR) in 2009 than in 1999. Prevalence rate reductions were greater for the first five-year period examined, while CDR reductions were greater in the second five-year period. Thirty-six countries and territories reported at least one prevalence value higher than 1 per 10,000 inhabitants and 32 reported at least one CDR value higher than 9 per 100,000 inhabitants. A total of 39 countries fit at least one of these criteria and all were located in tropical regions.

Clusters of leprosy transmission and of late diagnosis in a highly endemic area in Brazil: focus on different spatial analysis approaches

Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.