Screening Cycles

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in credit markets creates lending cycles when competing banks undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by lending market competition as a structural source of instability. We show that uncoordinated screening behavior of competing banks may be not only the source of an important financial multiplier, but also an independent source of fluctuations inducing business cycles. The screening cycle mechanism is robust to generalizations along many dimensions such as the lending market structure, the lending rate determination and the imperfections in the screening technology.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Endogenous cycles in a Stiglitz-Weiss economy

The literature on financiaI imperfections and business cycles has focused on propagation mechanisms. In this pape r we model apure reversion mechanism, such that the economy may converge to a two period equilibrium cycle. This mechanism confirms that financiaI imperfections may have a dramatic amplification effect. Unlike in some related models, contracts are complete. Indexation is not assumed away. The welfare properties of a possible stabilizing policy are analyzed. The model i tself is a dynamic extension of the well-known Stigli tz-Weiss model of lending under moral hazard. Although stylized the model still captures some important features of credit cycles.

Cyclicality of SME Lending and Government Involvement in Banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Cyclicality of SME lending and government involvement in banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Preventing consumer credit over-commitment and irresponsible lending in Australia

Mirroring the trends in other developed countries, levels of household debt in Australia have risen markedly in recent years. As one example, the total amount lent by banks to individuals has risen from $175.5 billion in August 1995 to $590.5 billion in August 2005.1 Consumer groups an~ media commentators here have long raised concerns about the risks of increasing levels of household debt and over-commitment, linking these issues at least in part to irresponsible lending practices. And more recently, the Reserve Bank Governor has also expressed concerns about the ability 'of some households to manage if personal or economic circumstances change.2

Nitrogen and phosphorus transformations in fixed-film biofilters subjected to aeration/no-aeration cycles

Despite recent developments in fixed-film combined biological nutrients removal (BNR) technology; fixed-film systems (i.e., biofilters), are still at the early stages of development and their application has been limited to a few laboratory-scale experiments. Achieving enhanced biological phosphorus removal in fixed-film systems requires exposing the micro-organisms and the waste stream to alternating anaerobic/aerobic or anaerobic/anoxic conditions in cycles. The concept of cycle duration (CD) as a process control parameter is unique to fixed-film BNR systems, has not been previously investigated, and can be used to optimise the performance of such systems. The CD refers to the elapsed time before the biomass is re-exposed to the same environmental conditions in cycles. Fixed-film systems offer many advantages over suspended growth systems such as reduced operating costs, simplicity of operation, absence of sludge recycling problems, and compactness. The control of nutrient discharges to water bodies, improves water quality, fish production, and allow water reuse. The main objective of this study was to develop a fundamental understanding of the effect of CD on the transformations of nutrients in fixed-film biofilter systems subjected to alternating aeration I no-aeration cycles A fixed-film biofilter system consisting of three up-flow biofilters connected in series was developed and tested. The first and third biofilters were operated in a cyclic mode in which the biomass was subjected to aeration/no-aeration cycles. The influent wastewater was simulated aquaculture whose composition was based on actual water quality parameters of aquacuture wastewater from a prawn grow-out facility. The influent contained 8.5 - 9:3 mg!L a111monia-N, 8.5- 8.7 mg/L phosphate-P, and 45- 50 mg!L acetate. Two independent studies were conducted at two biofiltration rates to evaluate and confirm the effect of CD on nutrient transformations in the biofilter system for application in aquaculture: A third study was conducted to enhance denitrification in the system using an external carbon- source at a rate varying from 0-24 ml/min. The CD was varied in the range of0.25- 120 hours for the first two studies and fixed at 12 hours for the third study. This study identified the CD as an important process control parameter that can be used to optimise the performance of full-scale fixed-film systems for BNR which represents a novel contribution in this field of research. The CD resulted in environmental conditions that inhibited or enhanced nutrient transformations. The effect of CD on BNR in fixed-film systems in terms of phosphorus biomass saturation and depletion has been established. Short CDs did not permit the establishment of anaerobic activity in the un-aerated biofilter and, thus, inhibited phosphorus release. Long CDs resulted in extended anaerobic activity and, thus, resulted in active phosphorus release. Long CDs, however, resulted in depleting the biomass phosphorus reservoir in the releasing biofilter and saturating the biomass phosphorus reservoir in the up-taking biofilter in the cycle. This phosphorus biomass saturation/depletion phenomenon imposes a practical limit on how short or long the CD can be. The length of the CD should be somewhere just before saturation or depletion occur and for the system tested, the optimal CD was 12 hours for the biofiltration rates tested. The system achieved limited net phosphorus removal due to the limited sludge wasting and lack of external carbon supply during phosphorus uptake. The phosphorus saturation and depletion reflected the need to extract phosphorus from the phosphorus-rich micro-organisms, for example, through back-washing. The major challenges of achieving phosphorus removal in the system included: (I) overcoming the deterioration in the performance of the system during the transition period following the start of each new cycle; and (2) wasting excess phosphorus-saturated biomass following the aeration cycle. Denitrification occurred in poorly aerated sections of the third biofilter and generally declined as the CD increased and as the time progressed in the individual cycle. Denitrification and phosphorus uptake were supplied by an internal organic carbon source, and the addition of an external carbon source (acetate) to the third biofilter resulted in improved denitrification efficiency in the system from 18.4 without supplemental carbon to 88.7% when the carbon dose reached 24 mL/min The removal of TOC and nitrification improved as the CD increased, as a result of the reduction in the frequency of transition periods between the cycles. A conceptual design of an effective fixed-film BNR biofilter system for the treatment of the influent simulated aquaculture wastewater was proposed based on the findings of the study.

History behind the IVF egg: Are women's comprehensive histories associated with the number of eggs collected, or fertilised normally, from repeated IVF cycles? [abstract]

Most studies of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) outcomes use cycle-based data and fail to account for women who use repeated IVF cycles. The objective of this study was to examine the association between the number of eggs collected (EC) and the percentage fertilised normally, and women’s self-reported medical, personal and social histories. This study involved a crosssectional survey of infertile women (aged 27-46 years) recruited from four privately-owned fertility clinics located in major cities of Australia. Regression modeling was used to estimate the mean EC and mean percentage of eggs fertilised normally: adjusted for age at EC. Appropriate statistical methods were used to take account of repeated IVF cycles by the same women. Among 121 participants who returned the survey and completed 286 IVF cycles, the mean age at EC was 35.2 years (SD 4.5). Women’s age at EC was strongly associated with the number of EC: <30 years, 11.7 EC; 30.0-< 35 years, 10.6 EC; 35.0-<40.0 years, 7.3 EC; 40.0+ years, 8.1 EC; p<.0001. Prolonged use of oral contraceptives was associated with lower numbers of EC: never used, 14.6 EC; 0-2 years, 11.7 EC; 3-5 years, 8.5 EC; 6þ years, 8.2 EC; p=.04. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) was associated with more EC: have PCOS, 11.5 EC; no, 8.3 EC; p=.01. Occupational exposures may be detrimental to normal fertilisation: professional roles, 58.8%; trade and service roles, 51.8%; manual and other roles, 63.3%; p=.02. In conclusion, women’s age remains the most significant characteristic associated with EC but not the percentage of eggs fertilised normally.

State cycles, initialization and the Trivium stream cipher

Trivium is a keystream generator for a binary additive synchronous stream cipher. It was selected in the final portfolio for the Profile 2 category of the eSTREAM project. The keystream generator is constructed using bit- based shift registers. In this paper we present an alternate representation of Trivium using word-based shift registers, with a word size of three bits. This representation is useful for determining cycles of internal state values. Under this representation it is clear that the state space can be partitioned into subspaces and that over some of these subspaces the state update function is effectively linear. The role of the initialization process is critical in ensuring the states used for generating keystream are updated nonlinearly at some point, as the state update function alone does not provide this.

Hormone-dependent bacterial growth persistence and biofilm formation - A pilot study investigating human follicular fluid collected during IVF cycles

Human follicular fluid, considered sterile, is aspirated as part of an in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle. However, it is easily contaminated by the trans-vaginal collection route and little information exists in its potential to support the growth of microorganisms. The objectives of this study were to determine whether human follicular fluid can support bacterial growth over time, whether the steroid hormones estradiol and progesterone (present at high levels within follicular fluid) contribute to the in vitro growth of bacterial species, and whether species isolated from follicular fluid form biofilms. We found that bacteria in follicular fluid could persist for at least 28 weeks in vitro and that the steroid hormones stimulated the growth of some bacterial species, specifically Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. Streptococcus spp. and E. coli. Several species, Lactobacillus spp., Propionibacterium spp., and Streptococcus spp., formed biofilms when incubated in native follicular fluids in vitro (18/24, 75%). We conclude that bacteria aspirated along with follicular fluid during IVF cycles demonstrate a persistent pattern of growth. This discovery is important since it can offer a new avenue for investigation in infertile couples.

Modification of advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model for the whole project life cycle’s risks

The advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (APRAM) is one of the recently developed methods that can be used for risk analysis and management purposes considering schedule, cost, and quality risks simultaneously. However, this model considers those failure risks that occur only over the design and construction phases of a project’s life cycle. While it can be sufficient for some projects for which the required cost during the operating life is much less than the budget required over the construction period, it should be modified in relation to infrastructure projects because the associated costs during the operating life cycle are significant. In this paper, a modified APRAM is proposed, which can consider potential risks that might occur over the entire life cycle of the project, including technical and managerial failure risks. Therefore, the modified model can be used as an efficient decision-support tool for construction managers in the housing industry in which various alternatives might be technically available. The modified method is demonstrated by using a real building project, and this demonstration shows that it can be employed efficiently by construction managers. The Delphi method was applied in order to figure out the failure events and their associated probabilities. The results show that although the initial cost of a cold-formed steel structural system is higher than a conventional construction system, the former’s failure cost is much lower than the latter’s

Countercyclical markups and news-driven business cycles

The standard one-sector real business cycle model is unable to generate expectations-driven fluctuations. The addition of countercyclical mark-ups and modest investment adjustment costs offers an easy fix to this conundrum. The simulated model replicates the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations.