On Qualitative Probabilities for Legal Reasoning about Evidence

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

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Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Analyse de la structure logique des inférences légales et modélisation du discours juridique

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De aliado a enemigo : análisis del cambio de posición de la federación rusa y china y sus relaciones con Irán y su programa nuclear, en el seno del consejo de seguridad de la Organización de Naciones Unidas (ONU) en el periodo 2005 – 2010

El programa Nuclear de Irán ha causado polémica en el Sistema Internacional, donde muchos Estados han sido protagonistas. Dentro de estos se encuentran La Federación Rusa y China, los cuales han cambiado de posición a lo largo de los años y teniendo en cuenta sus intereses, con respecto a Irán, en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU entre 2005 y 2010

Ensaios sobre o poder judiciário no Brasil

A tese apresenta três ensaios empíricos sobre os padrões decisórios de magistrados no Brasil, elaborados à partir de bases de dados inéditas e de larga escala, que contém detalhes de dezenas de milhares de processos judiciais na primeira e na segunda instância. As bases de dados são coletadas pelo próprio autor através de programas-robô de coleta em massa de informações, aplicados aos "links" de acompanhamento processual de tribunais estaduais no Brasil (Paraná, Minas Gerais e Santa Catarina). O primeiro artigo avalia - com base em modelo estatístico - a importância de fatores extra-legais sobre os resultados de ações judiciais, na Justiça Estadual do Paraná. Isto é, se os juízes favorecem sistematicamente a parte hipossuficiente (beneficiária de Assistência Judiciária Gratuita). No segundo artigo, estuda-se a relação entre a duração de ações cíveis no primeiro grau e a probabilidade de reforma da sentença, utilizando-se dados da Justiça Estadual de Minas Gerais. O objetivo é avaliar se existe um dilema entre a duração e a qualidade das sentenças. Dito de outra forma, se existe um dilema entre a observância do direito ao devido processo legal e a celeridade processual. O último artigo teste a hipótese - no âmbito de apelações criminais e incidentes recursais no Tribunal de Justiça de Santa Catarina - de que as origens profissionais dos desembargadores influenciam seus padrões decisórios. Isto é, testa-se a hipótese de que desembargadores/relatores oriundos da carreira da advocacia são mais "garantistas" ( e desembargadores oriundos da carreira do Ministério Público são menos "garantistas") relativamente aos seus pares oriundos da carreira da magistratura. Testam-se as hipóteses com base em um modelo estatístico que explica a probabilidade de uma decisão recursal favorável ao réu, em função da origem de carreira do relator do recurso, além de um conjunto de características do processo e do órgão julgador.

A Racionalidade jurídica da Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos no caso Gomes Lund e outros VS Brasil

Mesmo após trinta anos de consolidação democrática no Brasil o tema da justiça de transição ainda faz parte do nosso debate jurídico. Atualmente vive-se uma insegurança jurídica quanto à validade da lei de anistia brasileira, uma vez que o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) e a Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos (CorteIDH) julgaram a questão em sentidos opostos. Almejando contribuir para esse debate, tendo como objeto a decisão da CorteIDH, o presente artigo busca responder aos seguintes questionamentos: Ao julgar caso Gomes Lund e outros vs Brasil, quais foram os principais temas abordados pela CorteIDH que fez com que ela chegasse à conclusão de que a lei de anistia brasileira é inválida? Como se deu sua construção argumentativa, e quais foram suas principais fontes de embasamento normativo e jurisprudencial? Em suma, qual foi a racionalidade jurídica da Corte no julgamento desse caso? Para responder a essas perguntas de pesquisa buscou-se levantar indutivamente as principais questões abordadas na sentença e problematizar a responsabilidade do Brasil em relação ao Sistema Interamericano de Direitos Humanos.

O debate sobre desigualdade de gênero no discurso de adjudicação

O presente trabalho pretende contribuir com a literatura sobre legitimidade do poder judiciário e argumentação jurídica. O estudo se vale de pesquisa empírica baseada em amostra de casos que tratam de questões relacionadas à discriminação de gênero.

O sistema de cotas para negros na Universidade Federal do Maranhão: uma política de ação afirmativa para a população afromaranhense

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Sobre o controle jurisdicional da política externa - notas acerca do caso Battisti no STF

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Interactions between normative systems and software cognitive agents. A formalization in temporal modal defeasible logic and its implementation

Sustainable computer systems require some flexibility to adapt to environmental unpredictable changes. A solution lies in autonomous software agents which can adapt autonomously to their environments. Though autonomy allows agents to decide which behavior to adopt, a disadvantage is a lack of control, and as a side effect even untrustworthiness: we want to keep some control over such autonomous agents. How to control autonomous agents while respecting their autonomy? A solution is to regulate agents’ behavior by norms. The normative paradigm makes it possible to control autonomous agents while respecting their autonomy, limiting untrustworthiness and augmenting system compliance. It can also facilitate the design of the system, for example, by regulating the coordination among agents. However, an autonomous agent will follow norms or violate them in some conditions. What are the conditions in which a norm is binding upon an agent? While autonomy is regarded as the driving force behind the normative paradigm, cognitive agents provide a basis for modeling the bindingness of norms. In order to cope with the complexity of the modeling of cognitive agents and normative bindingness, we adopt an intentional stance. Since agents are embedded into a dynamic environment, things may not pass at the same instant. Accordingly, our cognitive model is extended to account for some temporal aspects. Special attention is given to the temporal peculiarities of the legal domain such as, among others, the time in force and the time in efficacy of provisions. Some types of normative modifications are also discussed in the framework. It is noteworthy that our temporal account of legal reasoning is integrated to our commonsense temporal account of cognition. As our intention is to build sustainable reasoning systems running unpredictable environment, we adopt a declarative representation of knowledge. A declarative representation of norms will make it easier to update their system representation, thus facilitating system maintenance; and to improve system transparency, thus easing system governance. Since agents are bounded and are embedded into unpredictable environments, and since conflicts may appear amongst mental states and norms, agent reasoning has to be defeasible, i.e. new pieces of information can invalidate formerly derivable conclusions. In this dissertation, our model is formalized into a non-monotonic logic, namely into a temporal modal defeasible logic, in order to account for the interactions between normative systems and software cognitive agents.

An Economic Model of Fair Use

The doctrine of fair use allows unauthorized copying of original works of art, music, and literature for limited purposes like criticism, research, and education, based on the rationale that copyright holders would consent to such uses if bargaining were possible. This paper develops the first formal analysis of fair use in an effort to derive the efficient legal standard for applying the doctrine. The model interprets copies and originals as differentiated products and defines fair use as a threshold separating permissible copying from infringement. Application of the analysis to several key cases (including the recent Napster case) shows that this interpretation is consistent with actual legal reasoning. The analysis also underscores the role of technology in shaping the efficient scope of fair use.

Islamic Political Thought: Reviving a Rationalist Tradition

This work develops the foundations of an Islamic argument for secular, liberal democracy from within the Islamic discursive tradition. First, it challenges the presentation of contemporary Islamic political thought as a unified, continuous development of the classical canon by showing the influence of the now marginalized medieval rationalists in the development of Islamic political thought. The classical rationalist concern with divine justice forced the founders of Sunni orthodoxy to state their epistemologies and their positions on ethical ontology. The orthodox positions, and their related methods of legal-juristic reasoning, are shown to be incapable of accommodating the modern Islamic positions on political representation, slavery, and just war. This leads to the second argument of the work, that the modern Islamic discourse is better understood as a reflection of the central concern with justice and its rationalist epistemology and ethical ontology we find in the writings of classical rationalists. This argument is made by examining the works of three classical rationalists, a theologian, a philosopher, and a historian. Their political positions, shaped by their rationalism and concern with justice, challenged their orthodox contemporaries, and provide substantive critiques of the classical political accommodations, methods of politico-legal reasoning, and hence, of modern Islamist political projects. The final chapter reveals how far the mainstream of Islamic political thought has deviated from the classical discourses, since the 19th century, by adopting the language and ideals of the European Enlightenment. This shift is presented as a triumph of classical rationalism over literalism, whose epistemological foundations and ontological implications have yet to be acknowledged and appreciated.

Cross-border Movement of Patients in the EU: A Re-Appraisal

The national welfare state, so it seems, has come under attack by European integration. This article focuses on one facet of the welfare state, that is, health care and on one specific dimension, that is, cross-border movement of patients. The institution which has played a pivotal role in the development of the framework regulating the migration of patients is the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The Court’s activity in this sensitive area has not remained without critics. This was even more so since the Court invoked Treaty (primary) law which not only has made it difficult to overturn case law but also has left the legislator with very little room for manoeuvre in relation to any future (secondary) EU law. What is therefore of special interest in terms of legitimacy is the legal reasoning by which the Court has made its contribution to the development of this framework. This article is a re-appraisal of the legal development in this field.