Elucidating the Space-Time Structure of Low Level Warm Season Precipitation Processes in the Southern Appalachian Mountains Using Models and Observations

Light rainfall is the baseline input to the annual water budget in mountainous landscapes through the tropics and at mid-latitudes. In the Southern Appalachians, the contribution from light rainfall ranges from 50-60% during wet years to 80-90% during dry years, with convective activity and tropical cyclone input providing most of the interannual variability. The Southern Appalachians is a region characterized by rich biodiversity that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to a rapidly growing population. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region has been well documented since the colonization of the area in terms of species health, fire frequency, and overall biodiversity. The overarching objective of this research is to elucidate the microphysics of light rainfall and the dynamics of low level moisture in the inner region of the Southern Appalachians during the warm season, with a focus on orographically mediated processes. The overarching research hypothesis is that physical processes leading to and governing the life cycle of orographic fog, low level clouds, and precipitation, and their interactions, are strongly tied to landform, land cover, and the diurnal cycles of flow patterns, radiative forcing, and surface fluxes at the ridge-valley scale. The following science questions will be addressed specifically: 1) How do orographic clouds and fog affect the hydrometeorological regime from event to annual scale and as a function of terrain characteristics and land cover?; 2) What are the source areas, governing processes, and relevant time-scales of near surface moisture convergence patterns in the region?; and 3) What are the four dimensional microphysical and dynamical characteristics, including variability and controlling factors and processes, of fog and light rainfall? The research was conducted with two major components: 1) ground-based high-quality observations using multi-sensor platforms and 2) interpretive numerical modeling guided by the analysis of the in situ data collection. Findings illuminate a high level of spatial – down to the ridge scale - and temporal – from event to annual scale - heterogeneity in observations, and a significant impact on the hydrological regime as a result of seeder-feeder interactions among fog, low level clouds, and stratiform rainfall that enhance coalescence efficiency and lead to significantly higher rainfall rates at the land surface. Specifically, results show that enhancement of an event up to one order of magnitude in short-term accumulation can occur as a result of concurrent fog presence. Results also show that events are modulated strongly by terrain characteristics including elevation, slope, geometry, and land cover. These factors produce interactions between highly localized flows and gradients of temperature and moisture with larger scale circulations. Resulting observations of DSD and rainfall patterns are stratified by region and altitude and exhibit clear diurnal and seasonal cycles.

Strategic supply lead time management. Case Nokia Networks, Hardware Services

Teollisuuden palveluiden on huomattu olevan potentiaalinen lisätulojen lähde. Teollisuuden palveluiden dynaamisessa maailmassa räätälöinti ja kyky toimia nopeasti ovat kriittisiä asiakastyytyväisyyden ja kilpailuedun luomisprosessin osia. Toimitusketjussa käytetyn ajan lyhentämisellä voidaan saavuttaa sekä paremmat vasteajat, että alhaisemmat kokonaiskustannukset. Tutkielman tavoitteena on kuvata teollisuuden palveluiden dynaamista ympäristöä: asiakastarvetta, sekä mahdollisuuksia kaventaa pyydetyn ja saavutetun toimitusajan välistä eroa. Tämä toteutetaan pääosin strategisen toimitusajan hallinnan keinoin. Langattomien tietoliikenneverkkojen operaattorit haluavat vähentää ydinosaamiseensa kuulumatomiin toimintoihin, kuten ylläpitoon sitoutuneita pääomia. Tutkielman case osiossa varaosapalvelujen toimitusketjun kysyntä-, materiaali- ja informaatiovirtoja analysoidaan niin kvalitatiivisten haastatteluiden, sisäisten dokumenttien, kuin kvantitatiivisten tilastollisten menetelmienkin avulla. Löydöksiä peilataan vallitsevaa toimitusketjun ja ajanhallinnan paradigmaa vasten. Tulokset osoittavat, että vahvan palvelukulttuurin omaksuminen ja kokonaisvaltainen toimitusketjun tehokkuuden mittaaminen ovat ajanhallinnan lähtökohtia teollisuuden palveluissa.

Lean Six Sigma in a Manufacturing Lead Time Improvement Project

The objective of this research is to demonstrate the use of Lean Six Sigma methodology in a manufacturing lead time improvement project. Moreover, the goal is to develop working solutions for the target company to improve its manufacturing lead time. The theoretical background is achieved through exploring the literature of Six Sigma, Lean and Lean Six Sigma. The development will be done in collaboration with the related stakeholders, by following the Lean Six Sigma improvement process DMAIC and by analyzing the process data from the target company. The focus of this research is in demonstrating how to use Lean Six Sigma improvement process DMAIC in practice, rather than in comparing Lean Six Sigma to other improvement methodologies. In order to validate the manufacturing system’s current state, improvement potential and solutions, statistical tools such as linear regression analysis were used. This ensured that all the decisions were as heavily based on actual data as possible. As a result of this research, a set of solutions were developed and implemented in the target company. These solutions included batch size reduction, bottleneck shift, first-in first-out queuing and shifting a data entry task from production planners to line workers. With the use of these solutions, the target company was able to reduce its manufacturing lead time by over one third.

Logistics Network Design with Differentiated Delivery Lead-Time: Benefits and Insights

Most logistics network design models assume exogenous customer demand that is independent of the service time or level. This paper examines the benefits of segmenting demand according to lead-time sensitivity of customers. To capture lead-time sensitivity in the network design model, we use a facility grouping method to ensure that the different demand classes are satisfied on time. In addition, we perform a series of computational experiments to develop a set of managerial insights for the network design decision making process.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Melhoria do processo de reparo por meio da redução de Lead Time em uma empresa de som automotivo

The constant search for improvement and survival of the companies makes essential the utilization of cost reduction strategies and resources optimization. This study had as its objective the utilization of Lean Manufacturing tools for the repair process lead time reduction, in a car audio manufacturer. Performing an action research, the major problems were studied, such as the potential causes and the possible improvement activities, using the DMAIC methodology. An action plan was developed for all involved processes and, as a result, the objective was reached by making a direct impact on the customers’ satisfaction and adding a competitive differential for the company

Projeto de mapeamento do lead time de uma empresa multinacional do ramo sucroalcooleira: estudo de caso

Facing the competitive current market, increases the growing managerial commitment to minimize the frequent occurrence of service failures that characterized the past. Given the fact that the supply of a product in the correct location and on time, undamaged and correctly billed market requirement becomes framed the present work. Based on a case study, supported in parallel bibliographical references in the literature in a company of sugar and alcohol sector, the survey aims to measure and evaluate the real-time delivery from suppliers in order to ensure the best level of service to the company in question by suppliers, by reducing idle time of delivery, since the control system does not supply the pre-established and / or observed above, thus obtaining a better management and supply of replacement material. To assist the work, developed a project in the company in question in order to analyze and identify applications of concepts of lead time along the supply chain through an exploratory study in order to provide a beneficial outcome to the company through monitoring and performance of its suppliers, which will enable an aid to future decision-making

Physiological time structure of the tibialis anterior motor activity during sleep in mice, rats and humans

The validation of rodent models for restless legs syndrome (Willis-Ekbom disease) and periodic limb movements during sleep requires knowledge of physiological limb motor activity during sleep in rodents. This study aimed to determine the physiological time structure of tibialis anterior activity during sleep in mice and rats, and compare it with that of healthy humans. Wild-type mice (n = 9) and rats (n = 8) were instrumented with electrodes for recording the electroencephalogram and electromyogram of neck muscles and both tibialis anterior muscles. Healthy human subjects (31 ± 1 years, n = 21) underwent overnight polysomnography. An algorithm for automatic scoring of tibialis anterior electromyogram events of mice and rats during non-rapid eye movement sleep was developed and validated. Visual scoring assisted by this algorithm had inter-rater sensitivity of 92-95% and false-positive rates of 13-19% in mice and rats. The distribution of the time intervals between consecutive tibialis anterior electromyogram events during non-rapid eye movement sleep had a single peak extending up to 10 s in mice, rats and human subjects. The tibialis anterior electromyogram events separated by intervals <10 s mainly occurred in series of two-three events, their occurrence rate in humans being lower than in mice and similar to that in rats. In conclusion, this study proposes reliable rules for scoring tibialis anterior electromyogram events during non-rapid eye movement sleep in mice and rats, demonstrating that their physiological time structure is similar to that of healthy young human subjects. These results strengthen the basis for translational rodent models of periodic limb movements during sleep and restless legs syndrome/Willis-Ekbom disease.

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

Lead time reduction for new products

The research, which was given the terms of reference, "To cut the lead time for getting new products into volume production", was sponsored by a company which develops and manufactures telecommunications equipment. The research described was based on studies made of the development of two processors which were designed to control telephone exchanges in the public network. It was shown that for each of these products, which were large electronic systems containing both hardware and software, most of their lead time was taken up with development. About half of this time was consumed by activities associated with redesign resulting from changes found to be necessary after the original design had been built. Analysing the causes of design changes showed the most significant to be Design Faults. The reasons why these predominated were investigated by seeking the collective opinion from design staff and their management using a questionnaire. Using the results from these studies to build upon the works of other authors, a model of the development process of large hierarchical systems is derived. An important feature of this model is its representation of iterative loops due to design changes. In order to reduce the development time, two closely related philosophies are proposed: By spending more time at the early stages of development (detecting and remedying faults in the design) even greater savings can be made later on, The collective performance of the development organisation would be improved by increasing the amount and speed of feedback about that performance. A trial was performed to test these philosophies using readily available techniques for design verification. It showed that about an 11 per cent saving would be made on the development time and that the philosophies might be equally successfully applied to other products and techniques.

Keskeneräisen tuotannon hallinta sähkönjakeluverkon urakointiprojekteissa

The main objective of the study was to find new approaches to the management of work in process in a rapidly changing power distribution network contracting environment in order to improve the efficiency of the management of capital and workload. The study describes the operating environment of a power distribution network contractor based in Eastern Finland and combines various activity indicators to create a general view. The literature review discusses scientific articles on project production, work in process and working capital management, analytical tools for projects as well as Lean criteria. The analysis of two case studies dealing with the characteristics of the power distribution network restructuring, focuses on how production management and management of work in process can potentially be improved in power distribution network contracting environments. The main results are the summary of the key figures of production, the data concerning the significance of different project types for work in process as well as the ways of improving the efficiency of production and business development in the present context.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.