Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Mapping Whidbey Island and Possession Sound landslide susceptibility using an additive linear model

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Landslide susceptibility in the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project launched by the Chinese Government whose main goal is to connect more than 65 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania developing infrastructures and facilities. To support the prevention or mitigation of landslide hazards, which may affect the mainland infrastructures of BRI, a landslide susceptibility analysis in the countries involved has been carried out. Due to the large study area, the analysis has been carried out using a multi-scale approach which consists of mapping susceptibility firstly at continental scale, and then at national scale. The study area selected for the continental assessment is the south-Asia, where a pixel-based landslide susceptibility map has been carried out using the Weight of Evidence method and validated by Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Then, we selected the regions of west Tajikistan and north-east India to be investigated at national scale. Data scarcity is a common condition for many countries involved into the Initiative. Therefore in addition to the landslide susceptibility assessment of west Tajikistan, which has been conducted using a Generalized Additive Model and validated by ROC curves, we have examined, in the same study area, the effect of incomplete landslide dataset on the prediction capacity of statistical models. The entire PhD research activity has been conducted using only open data and open-source software. In this context, to support the analysis of the last years an open-source plugin for QGIS has been implemented. The SZ-tool allows the user to make susceptibility assessments from the data preprocessing, susceptibility mapping, to the final classification. All the output data of the analysis conducted are freely available and downloadable. This text describes the research activity of the last three years. Each chapter reports the text of the articles published in international scientific journal during the PhD.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Natural and human forcing in recent geomorphic change; case studies in the Rio de la Plata basin

An analysis of geomorphic system`s response to change in human and natural drivers in some areas within the Rio de la Plata basin is presented The aim is to determine whether an acceleration of geomorphic processes has taken place in recent years and, if so, to what extent it is due to natural (climate) or human (land-use) drivers Study areas of different size, socio-economic and geomorphic conditions have been selected: the Rio de la Plata estuary and three sub-basins within its watershed Sediment cores were extracted and dated ((210)Pb) to determine sedimentation rates since the end of the 19th century. Rates were compared with time series on rainfall as well as human drivers such as population, GDP, livestock load, crop area, energy consumption or cement consumption, all of them related to human capacity to disturb land surface Data on river discharge were also gathered Results obtained indicate that sedimentation rates during the last century have remained essentially constant in a remote Andean basin, whereas they show important increases in the other two, particularly one located by the Sao Paulo metropolitan area Rates in the estuary are somewhere in between It appears that there is an intensification of denudation/sedimentation processes within the basin. Rainfall remained stable or varied very slightly during the period analysed and does not seem to explain increases of sedimentation rates observed. Human drivers, particularly those more directly related to capacity to disturb land surface (GDP, energy or cement consumption) show variations that suggest human forcing is a more likely explanation for the observed change in geomorphic processes It appears that a marked increase in denudation, of a ""technological"" nature, is taking place in this basin and leading to an acceleration of sediment supply This is coherent with similar increases observed in other regions (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Large slope deformations detection and monitoring along shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir, Argentina, based on a small-baseline InSAR approach

The Argentina National Road 7 that crosses the Andes Cordillera within the Mendoza province to connect Santiago de Chile and Buenos Aires is particularly affected by natural hazards requiring risk management. Integrated in a research plan that intends to produce landslide susceptibility maps, we aimed in this study to detect large slope movements by applying a satellite radar interferometric analysis using Envisat data, acquired between 2005 and 2010. We were finally able to identify two large slope deformations in sandstone and clay deposits along gentle shores of the Potrerillos dam reservoir, with cumulated displacements higher than 25mm in 5years and towards the reservoir. There is also a body of evidences that these large slope deformations are actually influenced by the seasonal reservoir level variations. This study shows that very detailed information, such as surface displacements and above all water level variation, can be extracted from spaceborne remote sensing techniques; nevertheless, the limitations of InSAR for the present dataset are discussed here. Such analysis can then lead to further field investigations to understand more precisely the destabilising processes acting on these slope deformations.

HidroSIG: un sistema de información geográfica para la gestión de recursos naturales y modelación del medio ambiente

This paper describes HidroGIS, a GIS platform developed by Water Resources Program at Universidad Nacional de Colombia at Medellín. HidroSIG is a tool for hydrological variables visualization and analysis, using a set of modules that make this software a powerful tool for hydrological modeling. HidroSIG has tools for digital terrain models processing, water supply estimation using long term water balance in watersheds, a rainfall-runoff model, a model for landslide susceptibility estimation, an one-dimensional pollutant transport model, tools for homogeneity analysis in time series and tools for satellite images classification. The tools in development status are also described

Análise da suscetibilidade a movimentos de massa no município de Peruíbe - SP, com o apoio de um sistema integrador de informações georeferenciadas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo dos mecanismos de instabilidade em solos residuais de biotita-gnaisse da bacia do ribeirão Guaratinguetá

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise da suscetibilidade a escorregamentos: uma abordagem probabilística

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Aplicação do método AHP para hierarquização de condicionantes de corrida de massa

Among the flow, the flows have the highest destructive potential, may cause disasters with a very high number of victims, as recorded in the events Caraguatatuba (SP) and the Serra das Araras (RJ) in 1967; Valeu do Rio Figueira, in Timbé do Sul (SC) between 1995 and 1996; Vale do Itajaí in Santa Catarina, in 2008, Teresópolis, Petrópolis and Nova Friburgo (RJ), in December 2010 and January 2011. This project aimed to prioritize the main determinants of inducing processes of debris flows by applying the method of decision making AHP (Analytical Hierarch Process). Therefore, the following stages of work were defined: research of the major factors of debris flows, questionnaire design method for application of AHP expert on the subject, analysis of the results obtained from calculating the ratio of consistency and preparation of proposal for hierarchical of conditions for debris flows. From the surveys it was possible to establish a relationship of conditions according to the scale of work, defining three levels: regional (1:250,000 to 1:100,000), Semi-Detail (1:50,000 to 1:25,000) and Detail (1: 10,000 or higher). The factors found were: concentration time, the flood wave, rain, landslide susceptibility (slope), drainage and development in the deposition. The project analyzed the results obtained from the questionnaires, which allowed the ranking of the constraints, contributing to weight constraints in studies of multicriteria mapping of susceptibility to the occurrence of debris flows. The study showed that the most of the analyzed datas were inconsistent because of the different opinion of the judges

Análise das ocorrências de escorregamento por meio de imagens Geoeye em trecho da faixa de dutos Rio de Janeiro - Belo Horizonte

The analysis of natural processes, such as landslides, has a great importance for the prevention of accidents in pipelines, since it might compromise its security, with serious social and environmental implications. Considering the large territorial dimensions that pipelines can reach, remote sensing tools have great applicability for data acquisition, allowing the analysis of large areas in regular time periods. This study aims to analyze the relations between the occurrence of landslides and its natural conditionings, on a stretch of the ORBEL pipeline, in the municipalities of Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguaçu and Belford Roxo – Rio de Janeiro. GeoEye sensor system images were used with spatial resolution of 0.5 m, from November/2009, January/2010 and March/2010, that are months of summer rains. The work involved the characterization of the study area and existing landslides, through bibliographic data collection; the application of visual analysis techniques for the extraction of landslide scars and fractures; preparation of maps for the landslide constraints and preparation of the susceptibility map. In the images from November only three landslide scars were extracted, while in January there were 166 and 111 in March. Difficulties were found with the shading in the images. From the relations among landslide scars, lithological units, relief systems, slope, downhill profile and the generated map of landslide susceptibility, presented in 1:70,000 scale, it was possible to conclude that slope is the main determinant of the process, allied secondarily to downhill profile, relief systems and lithology

Análise da suscetibilidade do meio físico a movimentos gravitacionais de massa por meio de sistematização de zoneamento geoambiental

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)