From 'land grabbing' to sustainable investments in land: potential contributions by land change science

This paper assesses possible contributions of land change science to the growing body of knowledge about large-scale land acquisition. Despite obvious commonalities, such as a problem-oriented and interdisciplinary approach to land change, there seems to be little overlap between the two fields thus far. We adopt a sustainability research perspective — an important feature of land change science — to review research questions about large-scale land acquisition that are currently being addressed, and to define questions for further inquiry. Possible contributions of land change science toward more sustainable land investments are based on understanding land use change not only as a consequence, but also as a cause of large-scale land acquisition and as a solution to the problems land acquisition can create.

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: A case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

National Natural Science Foundation of China [40471134]; program of Lights of the West China by the Chinese Academy of Science

Assessing the homogenization of urban land management with an application to US residential lawn care.

Changes in land use, land cover, and land management present some of the greatest potential global environmental challenges of the 21st century. Urbanization, one of the principal drivers of these transformations, is commonly thought to be generating land changes that are increasingly similar. An implication of this multiscale homogenization hypothesis is that the ecosystem structure and function and human behaviors associated with urbanization should be more similar in certain kinds of urbanized locations across biogeophysical gradients than across urbanization gradients in places with similar biogeophysical characteristics. This paper introduces an analytical framework for testing this hypothesis, and applies the framework to the case of residential lawn care. This set of land management behaviors are often assumed--not demonstrated--to exhibit homogeneity. Multivariate analyses are conducted on telephone survey responses from a geographically stratified random sample of homeowners (n = 9,480), equally distributed across six US metropolitan areas. Two behaviors are examined: lawn fertilizing and irrigating. Limited support for strong homogenization is found at two scales (i.e., multi- and single-city; 2 of 36 cases), but significant support is found for homogenization at only one scale (22 cases) or at neither scale (12 cases). These results suggest that US lawn care behaviors are more differentiated in practice than in theory. Thus, even if the biophysical outcomes of urbanization are homogenizing, managing the associated sustainability implications may require a multiscale, differentiated approach because the underlying social practices appear relatively varied. The analytical approach introduced here should also be productive for other facets of urban-ecological homogenization.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling

Generation and analysis of the 2005 land cover map for Mexico using 250m MODIS data

Land cover plays a key role in global to regional monitoring and modeling because it affects and is being affected by climate change and thus became one of the essential variables for climate change studies. National and international organizations require timely and accurate land cover information for reporting and management actions. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) is an international cooperation of organizations and entities of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to map land cover change of North America's changing environment. This paper presents the methodology to derive the land cover map of Mexico for the year 2005 which was integrated in the NALCMS continental map. Based on a time series of 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and an extensive sample data base the complexity of the Mexican landscape required a specific approach to reflect land cover heterogeneity. To estimate the proportion of each land cover class for every pixel several decision tree classifications were combined to obtain class membership maps which were finally converted to a discrete map accompanied by a confidence estimate. The map yielded an overall accuracy of 82.5% (Kappa of 0.79) for pixels with at least 50% map confidence (71.3% of the data). An additional assessment with 780 randomly stratified samples and primary and alternative calls in the reference data to account for ambiguity indicated 83.4% overall accuracy (Kappa of 0.80). A high agreement of 83.6% for all pixels and 92.6% for pixels with a map confidence of more than 50% was found for the comparison between the land cover maps of 2005 and 2006. Further wall-to-wall comparisons to related land cover maps resulted in 56.6% agreement with the MODIS land cover product and a congruence of 49.5 with Globcover.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

Pan-European land cover/use map for 2009

GlobCorine demonstrated an automatic service that can generate in a consistent way land cover / land use maps and land change indicators, based on a CLC-compatible legend. CLC is derived from a visual identification and classification of landscape objects using high resolution images. This methodology provides high thematic accuracy but limits the update rate since it is time-consuming. Therefore, the project evaluated the use of MERIS FR time series, processed automatically to provide a more frequent update of CLC-compatible maps. GlobCorine built upon the experience and resources available through the GlobCover project, to tune the classification chain and adapt it to the EEA needs, covering the pan-European area (including the Mediterranean basin and the European Russia), although the system could be potentially extendable globally. The project delivered two CLC-compatible pan-European land cover maps in less than two years, demonstrating efficient and quick production. The first map is based on Envisat MERIS fine resolution (300m) mode data acquired between end 2004 and mid 2006, while the second used full-year 2009 data. GlobCorine is an initiative of ESA with the partnership of EEA and is implemented by Universite' catholique de Louvain - UCL.

Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian rangelands

Land-change science emphasizes the intimate linkages between the human and environmental components of land management systems. Recent theoretical developments in drylands identify a small set of key principles that can guide the understanding of these linkages. Using these principles, a detailed study of seven major degradation episodes over the past century in Australian grazed rangelands was reanalyzed to show a common set of events: (i) good climatic and economic conditions for a period, leading to local and regional social responses of increasing stocking rates, setting the preconditions for rapid environmental collapse, followed by (ii) a major drought coupled with a fall in the market making destocking financially unattractive, further exacerbating the pressure on the environment; then (iii) permanent or temporary declines in grazing productivity, depending on follow-up seasons coupled again with market and social conditions. The analysis supports recent theoretical developments but shows that the establishment of environmental knowledge that is strictly local may be insufficient on its own for sustainable management. Learning systems based in a wider community are needed that combine local knowledge, formal research, and institutional support. It also illustrates how natural variability in the state of both ecological and social systems can interact to precipitate nonequilibrial change in each other, so that planning cannot be based only on average conditions. Indeed, it is this variability in both environment and social subsystems that hinders the local learning required to prevent collapse.

榆林市耕地资源与粮食安全研究

耕地资源是粮食生产及粮食安全的基础。针对世界粮价飙升所引发的"粮食危机",我国的粮食安全又重新成为社会所关注的焦点。在分析榆林市1949-2005年耕地资源变化的基础上,对耕地面积和粮食产量的年际变化率及不同历史阶段两者的相关关系进行分析,提出了榆林市粮食安全的保障措施。结果表明:1949-2005年,榆林市耕地面积及人均耕地面积均呈减少趋势;耕地数量变化对粮食生产具有根本的约束作用,但耕地面积与粮食产量的年际变化率的趋势并不完全同步,农业科技投入不仅抵消了因耕地面积减少所导致的粮食减产,而且可以使粮食总产出现较大增长,但耕地数量仍是稳定粮食总产的重要因素。

Étude des impacts écologiques du dynamisme spatio-temporel des habitats naturels sur la faune menacée du Complexe Zones Humides Mahavavy-Kinkony, Madagascar.

This study of the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) assesses the impacts of habitat change on the resident globally threatened fauna. Located in Boeny Region, northwest Madagascar, the Complex encompasses a range of habitats including freshwater lakes, rivers, marshes, mangrove forests, and deciduous forest. Spatial modelling and analysis tools were used to (i) identify the important habitats for selected, threatened fauna, (ii) assess their change from 1950 to 2005, (iii) detect the causes of change, (iv) simulate changes to 2050 and (v) evaluate the impacts of change. The approach for prioritising potential habitats for threatened species used ecological science techniques assisted by the decision support software Marxan. Nineteen species were analysed: nine birds, three primates, three fish, three bats and one reptile. Based on knowledge of local land use, supervised classification of Landsat images from 2005 was used to classify the land use of the Complex. Simulations of land use change to 2050 were carried out based on the Land Change Modeler module in Idrisi Andes with the neural network algorithm. Changes in land use at site level have occurred over time but they are not significant. However, reductions in the extent of reed marshes at Lake Kinkony and forests at Tsiombikibo and Marofandroboka directly threaten the species that depend on these habitats. Long term change monitoring is recommended for the Mahavavy Delta, in order to evaluate the predictions through time. The future change of Andohaomby forest is of great concern and conservation actions are recommended as a high priority. Abnormal physicochemical properties were detected in lake Kinkony due to erosion of the four watersheds to the south, therefore an anti-erosion management plan is required for these watersheds. Among the species of global conservation concern, Sakalava rail (Amaurornis olivieri), Crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and dambabe (Paretroplus dambabe) are estimated the most affected, but at the site level Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckeni), kotsovato (Paretroplus kieneri) and Madagascan big-headed turtle (Erymnochelys madagascariensis) are also threatened. Local enforcement of national legislation on hunting means that MKWC is among the sites where the flying fox (Pteropus rufus) and Madagascan rousette (Rousettus madagascariensis) are well protected. Ecological restoration, ecological research and actions to reduce anthropogenic pressures are recommended.